A Look at Golf – Page 43 – Alookatgolf provides information for the professional golf fan, fantasy golf enthusiast, and daily fantasy sports golf participant. We provide true odds on U.S. and European professional golf events and accurate rankings of U.S. and European pro golfers.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Apr. 24, 2022)

April 25, 2022 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Strong ratings over the past two years are keeping Jon Rahm in the no. 1 position.

#	Thru Apr. 24, 2022	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Jon Rahm	46	1516	1
2	Patrick Cantlay	42	1397	4
3	Justin Thomas	49	1361	2
4	Scottie Scheffler	56	1311	3
5	Cameron Smith	46	1252	5
6	Xander Schauffele	48	1242	10
7	Dustin Johnson	42	1222	6
8	Rory McIlroy	45	1206	8
9	Viktor Hovland	56	1179	7
10	Collin Morikawa	52	1132	9
11	Daniel Berger	42	1117	11
12	Will Zalatoris	44	1114	13
13	Shane Lowry	54	1065	12
14	Sam Burns	50	1046	16
15	Corey Conners	56	1025	14
16	Paul Casey	44	1019	15
17	Billy Horschel	54	952	27
18	Matthew Fitzpatrick	51	949	18
19	Cameron Young	23	947	19
20	Louis Oosthuizen	41	940	22
21	Russell Henley	48	938	21
22	Tyrrell Hatton	50	932	17
23	Joaquin Niemann	55	912	20
24	Sungjae Im	65	902	23
25	Jordan Spieth	47	901	25
26	Hideki Matsuyama	49	893	24
27	Brooks Koepka	43	874	26
28	Adam Scott	35	864	29
29	Harold Varner	54	853	34
30	Talor Gooch	56	850	28
31	Abraham Ancer	55	822	32
32	Seamus Power	38	813	30
33	Webb Simpson	41	809	33
34	Cameron Tringale	50	801	38
35	Alex Noren	51	801	31
36	Bryson DeChambeau	41	784	35
37	Kevin Na	48	765	40
38	Max Homa	52	763	39
39	Tommy Fleetwood	52	756	36
40	Jason Kokrak	52	753	42
41	Keegan Bradley	57	753	50
42	Sergio Garcia	47	746	37
43	Tony Finau	55	737	44
44	Kevin Kisner	52	732	41
45	Keith Mitchell	52	721	43
46	Brian Harman	54	718	45
47	Harris English	44	704	47
48	Si Woo Kim	59	698	48
49	Adam Hadwin	54	687	46
50	Bubba Watson	43	681	63
51	Patrick Reed	56	681	51
52	Maverick McNealy	51	676	49
53	Marc Leishman	50	663	53
54	Erik van Rooyen	51	661	54
55	Aaron Wise	44	648	55
56	Justin Rose	42	647	56
57	Mito Pereira	28	641	52
58	Taylor Moore	19	631	88
59	Chris Kirk	48	615	58
60	Sepp Straka	62	613	57
61	Gary Woodland	47	613	59
62	Kevin Streelman	55	608	60
63	Sebastian Munoz	59	606	61
64	Matt Kuchar	47	603	62
65	Jason Day	42	589	69
66	Ian Poulter	54	585	64
67	Brendan Steele	47	583	77
68	Taylor Pendrith	26	552	65
69	Ryan Palmer	49	551	67
70	Matthew Wolff	44	545	66
71	Taylor Montgomery	8	537	72
72	Patton Kizzire	53	530	68
73	Mac Hughes	54	529	73
74	Tom Hoge	65	526	71
75	Troy Merritt	60	525	70
76	Jhonattan Vegas	49	507	75
77	Lanto Griffin	56	505	74
78	Brendon Todd	56	492	79
79	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	51	487	76
80	Joel Dahmen	52	484	78
81	Matthew NeSmith	56	484	99
82	Lee Westwood	44	480	83
83	Cameron Davis	48	478	84
84	Charles Howell	41	477	85
85	Doug Ghim	48	474	80
86	Robert MacIntyre	48	471	81
87	Charley Hoffman	50	468	82
88	Denny McCarthy	58	457	87
89	Matt Jones	55	455	90
90	Lucas Herbert	39	454	86
91	Thomas Pieters	38	443	91
92	David Lipsky	30	442	131
93	Aaron Rai	50	439	116
94	Luke List	57	439	92
95	Sahith Theegala	33	439	89
96	CT Pan	51	435	95
97	Russell Knox	58	434	93
98	Davis Riley	29	424	145
99	Dylan Frittelli	58	424	96
100	Adam Long	58	421	94
101	Branden Grace	54	415	126
102	Anirban Lahiri	39	409	98
103	Lucas Glover	55	406	97
104	Francesco Molinari	29	402	101
105	Bud Cauley	10	401	104
106	Pat Perez	53	398	103
107	Stewart Cink	45	398	105
108	Zach Johnson	47	397	102
109	Charl Schwartzel	49	393	100
110	JJ Spaun	54	391	107
111	Carlos Ortiz	51	382	110
112	Scott Stallings	53	379	106
113	Doc Redman	54	376	148
114	JT Poston	56	372	109
115	KH Lee	57	371	113
116	Emiliano Grillo	57	364	111
117	Adam Svensson	24	363	108
118	Cameron Champ	45	361	115
119	Harry Higgs	56	360	112
120	Beau Hossler	54	360	114
121	Sam Ryder	60	357	154
122	Andrew Putnam	56	354	121
123	Richard Bland	45	353	119
124	Rickie Fowler	44	351	120
125	Steve Stricker	17	350	122
126	Lee Hodges	27	343	117
127	Michael Thompson	48	342	124
128	Martin Laird	39	339	118
129	Robert Streb	51	336	123
130	Matt Wallace	56	335	129
131	Rory Sabbatini	48	332	128
132	Matthias Schwab	50	325	127
133	Hudson Swafford	52	323	132
134	Danny Willett	54	321	136
135	Nick Taylor	51	320	134
136	Wyndham Clark	54	319	156
137	John Huh	36	318	125
138	Oliver Bekker	14	316	144
139	Padraig Harrington	36	310	138
140	Bernd Wiesberger	46	310	135
141	Chez Reavie	56	310	133
142	Kramer Hickok	46	310	139
143	Scott Piercy	49	308	140
144	Alex Smalley	25	306	130
145	Sam Horsfield	37	303	150
146	Mark Hubbard	55	302	155
147	Min Woo Lee	40	301	141
148	Phil Mickelson	36	298	146
149	Nate Lashley	49	295	147
150	Brandt Snedeker	53	294	143
151	Hayden Buckley	24	294	137
152	Adri Arnaus	46	290	142
153	Adam Schenk	61	289	158
154	Brian Stuard	66	288	151
155	Tyler Duncan	58	283	165
156	John Augenstein	12	278	153
157	Hennie du Plessis	13	276	177
158	Dylan Wu	21	276	223
159	Victor Perez	43	273	164
160	Takumi Kanaya	32	268	157
161	Austin Smotherman	18	267	149
162	Peter Malnati	56	265	161
163	Chad Ramey	23	264	152
164	Hank Lebioda	47	263	170
165	Vincent Whaley	51	258	160
166	Ryan Armour	48	256	159
167	Rasmus Hojgaard	43	255	163
168	Greyson Sigg	30	253	162
169	Pablo Larrazabal	42	253	178
170	Justin Harding	51	253	167
171	Roger Sloan	51	252	169
172	Thomas Detry	47	251	168
173	Jason Scrivener	39	250	217
174	Austin Eckroat	11	248	171
175	Henrik Norlander	55	244	166
176	Garrick Higgo	51	240	253
177	Dean Burmester	48	238	173
178	Richy Werenski	56	236	172
179	Justin Lower	18	230	310
180	Victor Dubuisson	23	229	179
181	Chase Seiffert	44	229	193
182	Jordan Smith	49	229	180
183	Kevin Chappell	27	227	176
184	Danny Lee	50	226	175
185	Patrick Rodgers	63	226	185
186	Marcus Armitage	50	225	181
187	Byeong Hun An	43	223	220
188	Andrew Landry	43	222	182
189	Sean O’Hair	32	221	197
190	Satoshi Kodaira	40	220	186
191	Justin Suh	16	220	184
192	Henrik Stenson	44	217	218
193	Wesley Bryan	24	217	174
194	Adrian Meronk	46	217	188
195	James Hahn	41	215	192
196	Antoine Rozner	47	212	207
197	Kyle Stanley	54	211	190
198	Thriston Lawrence	16	209	189
199	Alexander Bjork	39	208	187
200	Tyler McCumber	43	208	198
201	Haotong Li	36	208	210
202	Martin Kaymer	34	207	200
203	Laurie Canter	42	207	199
204	Tiger Woods	8	207	201
205	Andrew Johnston	24	205	203
206	Graeme McDowell	49	203	196
207	Julien Brun	12	203	183
208	Trey Mullinax	19	201	191
209	Scott Jamieson	43	201	211
210	Marcel Siem	25	199	194
211	Tom Lewis	44	199	215
212	Cameron Percy	42	198	202
213	Max McGreevy	21	196	195
214	Brice Garnett	56	195	205
215	Bo Hoag	51	195	204
216	Ryan Fox	37	192	226
217	Rafa Cabrera Bello	54	191	206
218	Guido Migliozzi	46	190	209
219	Fabrizio Zanotti	31	188	212
220	Wade Ormsby	35	188	208
221	Joseph Bramlett	54	183	214
222	Shaun Norris	27	182	213
223	Johannes Veerman	42	182	222
224	Vaughn Taylor	46	181	216
225	Brandon Hagy	51	180	221
226	Mikko Korhonen	35	178	242
227	Ashun Wu	34	178	219
228	Nicolai Hojgaard	44	177	224
229	Andy Sullivan	45	176	225
230	Nick Watney	49	175	228
231	Kurt Kitayama	41	175	227
232	Kalle Samooja	43	173	231
233	Adrian Otaegui	50	173	256
234	Camilo Villegas	46	173	229
235	Jim Furyk	16	172	238
236	Ryan Moore	32	172	237
237	Matthew Jordan	47	171	246
238	Romain Langasque	46	169	234
239	George Coetzee	36	168	241
240	Lukas Nemecz	12	168	272
241	Shubhankar Sharma	51	168	243
242	Jonathan Byrd	30	168	230
243	Joachim B Hansen	49	167	235
244	Matthieu Pavon	48	164	239
245	Andrew Novak	21	164	232
246	Kevin Tway	51	164	240
247	Luke Donald	45	163	248
248	Calum Hill	41	161	251
249	Sean Crocker	49	160	244
250	Robert Garrigus	16	159	233
251	Jim Herman	43	158	245
252	Davis Thompson	11	158	255
253	Brad Kennedy	11	157	236
254	Masahiro Kawamura	54	155	257
255	Jeff Winther	40	154	252
256	Brandon Wu	25	154	281
257	Paul Barjon	25	153	249
258	Matthias Schmid	22	152	260
259	Chan Kim	25	152	250
260	Brandon Stone	42	151	259
261	Hurly Long	21	151	247
262	Jimmy Walker	46	150	263
263	Scott Gutschewski	19	148	254
264	Robby Shelton	44	148	262
265	David Horsey	45	147	264
266	Curtis Thompson	23	147	292
267	Ben Martin	35	146	258
268	Chesson Hadley	53	145	261
269	Nick Hardy	21	144	297
270	Ross Fisher	46	143	282
271	Trevor Fisher	8	141	270
272	Daniel van Tonder	35	140	265
273	Bronson Burgoon	49	139	273
274	Francesco Laporta	47	139	269
275	Wilco Nienaber	41	139	267
276	Jamie Donaldson	43	139	268
277	Aaron Baddeley	37	139	278
278	Ryosuke Kinoshita	19	138	266
279	Richie Ramsay	46	138	280
280	Ryan Brehm	34	135	356
281	Bo Van Pelt	45	135	274
282	Jason Dufner	48	134	275
283	Callum Shinkwin	41	134	271
284	Yannik Paul	8	133
285	Joakim Lagergren	41	132	276
286	Edoardo Molinari	42	132	285
287	Craig Howie	22	132	291
288	Ewen Ferguson	30	129	279
289	Ben Kohles	19	128	277
290	Will Gordon	39	128	288
291	David Lingmerth	20	128	294
292	Keita Nakajima	11	127	289
293	Rikuya Hoshino	23	127	290
294	Grant Forrest	47	127	283
295	Sung Kang	60	127	287
296	Tapio Pulkkanen	48	126	305
297	Stephan Jaeger	29	125	293
298	Thorbjorn Olesen	35	125	309
299	Peter Uihlein	34	124	286
300	Shugo Imahira	19	123	284
301	Aaron Cockerill	43	123	334
302	Rob Oppenheim	36	123	296
303	Jack Senior	45	121	323
304	Jazz Janewattananond	48	121	302
305	Seonghyeon Kim	8	120	301
306	Wil Besseling	46	118	298
307	Connor Syme	47	118	300
308	Michael Gligic	50	117	299
309	MJ Daffue	16	117	304
310	Callum Tarren	19	117	295
311	Austin Cook	53	115	303
312	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	41	115	308
313	John Catlin	46	114	306
314	Louis de Jager	30	113	315
315	Marcus Kinhult	37	113	307
316	Jacques Kruyswijk	30	112	312
317	Joost Luiten	48	111	314
318	Julien Guerrier	45	109	316
319	Daniel Gavins	29	109	313
320	Seth Reeves	21	109	311
321	Darren Fichardt	26	106	368
322	Jacques Blaauw	9	106	321
323	Justin Walters	50	106	336
324	James Morrison	49	105	318
325	Bill Haas	46	104	317
326	Mark Anderson	29	104	327
327	Ben Taylor	26	103	329
328	Jorge Campillo	52	103	333
329	Ockie Strydom	8	103	328
330	Xinjun Zhang	38	103	322
331	Renato Paratore	48	103	319
332	Ollie Schniederjans	10	102	325
333	Alexander Levy	44	102	332
334	Eddie Pepperell	39	102	352
335	Matthew Southgate	46	102	324
336	Jared Wolfe	20	101	320
337	Joohyung Kim	12	101	335
338	Martin Trainer	54	99	330
339	Sami Valimaki	45	99	331
340	Richard Sterne	17	96	326
341	Maximilian Kieffer	46	96	342
342	Akshay Bhatia	15	96	338
343	Scott Brown	47	96	337
344	Andrew Wilson	11	95	536
345	Kristoffer Broberg	31	95	343
346	CJ du Plessis	8	93	345
347	David Law	49	93	344
348	Chris Baker	29	92	346
349	Benjamin Hebert	38	91	350
350	Keenan Davidse	8	90	351
351	Dawie van der Walt	21	90	339
352	Chase Hanna	20	89	341
353	Kristoffer Ventura	37	89	347
354	Nino Bertasio	42	89	348
355	Hiroshi Iwata	18	88	340
356	Scott Vincent	31	87	359
357	Marc Warren	39	87	349
358	Robert Rock	32	87	358
359	Michael Gellerman	23	85	362
360	Chris Stroud	18	85	360
361	Seung-yul Noh	28	82	355
362	Nacho Elvira	50	82	361
363	Brian Gay	50	82	365
364	Fabian Gomez	36	82	366
365	Marcus Helligkilde	13	81	353
366	Bryce Easton	32	81	367
367	Jim Knous	18	80	354
368	Dale Whitnell	48	80	364
369	JC Ritchie	21	80	372
370	Adrien Saddier	36	80	415
371	Neil Schietekat	11	80	369
372	Yuto Katsuragawa	9	79	386
373	Nicolas Colsaerts	31	79	374
374	Jayden Schaper	14	79	373
375	Niall Kearney	24	78	363
376	Rafael Campos	31	78	376
377	Josh Teater	26	78	378
378	Oscar Lengden	12	78	379
379	Niklas Norgaard Moller	12	77	357
380	Berry Henson	15	77	383
381	Kelly Kraft	36	77	370
382	Scott Harrington	41	77	380
383	Andy Ogletree	11	75	384
384	Gavin Green	46	74	400
385	Niklas Lemke	37	73	382
386	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	13	73	387
387	Tomoharu Otsuki	17	73	377
388	Paul Peterson	16	72	388
389	David Skinns	17	72	375
390	Jinichiro Kozuma	16	72	371
391	Yuki Inamori	19	71	394
392	Tommy Gainey	17	71	381
393	Rourke van der Spuy	8	71	389
394	Jaco Ahlers	12	70	393
395	Mike Lorenzo-Vera	30	70	422
396	Sebastian Soderberg	46	70	385
397	Oliver Wilson	46	69	407
398	Richard Mansell	22	69	419
399	Roberto Castro	10	68	395
400	Jack Singh Brar	12	68	528
More \| Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Perspectives on the Zurich Classic of New Orleans

April 18, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Billy Horschel	0.697
Ryan Palmer	0.638
Charley Hoffman	0.625
Nick Watney	0.545
Charl Schwartzel	0.512
Cameron Smith	0.493
Scott Stallings	0.490
Kevin Kisner	0.486

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	3	1328.9
Patrick Cantlay	4	1302.4
Cameron Smith	5	1283.2
Viktor Hovland	7	1212.6
Collin Morikawa	9	1166.6
Xander Schauffele	10	1154.9
Shane Lowry	12	1056.3
Will Zalatoris	13	1050.2

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1511.7
Justin Thomas	2	1362.6
Dustin Johnson	6	1230.1
Rory McIlroy	8	1205.7

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Scottie Scheffler & Doc Redman	787.5
Talor Gooch & Max Homa	747.6
Sepp Straka & David Skinns	735.3
Sergio Garcia & Tommy Fleetwood	657.1
Joaquin Niemann & Matthew NeSmith	616.5
Sam Burns & Billy Horschel	607.8
Cameron Smith & David Lipsky	589.9
Shane Lowry & Dylan Wu	575.4

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele	-517.4
Taylor Moore & Brandt Snedeker	-276.6
Emiliano Grillo & Rafa Cabrera Bello	-273.4
Charley Hoffman & Vincent Whaley	-267.0
Ryan Palmer & Scott Piercy	-265.6
Alex Smalley & Hayden Buckley	-215.0
Sam Ryder & Seth Reeves	-185.3
Wesley Bryan & Trey Mullinax	-181.7

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.26	Putts per GIR
0.09	Shots gained in approach
0.06	Shots gained off the tee
0.01	Shots gained putting

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele	69.02
Sam Burns & Billy Horschel	69.17
Robert MacIntyre & Hank Lebioda	69.18
Cameron Smith & David Lipsky	69.20
Viktor Hovland & Sahith Theegala	69.20
Talor Gooch & Max Homa	69.21
Tom Hoge & Paul Barjon	69.22

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Sung Kang & Michael Kim	69.9
Dawie van der Walt & Brett Drewitt	69.9
Bill Haas & Jay Haas	69.8
Greyson Sigg & Henrik Stenson	69.8
Scott Gutschewski & DA Points	69.7
Henrik Norlander & Sean O’Hair	69.7
Russell Knox & Martin Trainer	69.7
Sepp Straka & David Skinns	69.6

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Davis Riley	Hattiesburg MS	100
Bubba Watson	Pensacola FL	175
Chad Ramey	Fulton MS	200
Chase Seiffert	Panama City FL	275
Sam Burns	Shreveport LA	275
Mark Hubbard	The Woodlands TX	325
Trey Mullinax	Gardendale Al	325
Jason Dufner	Auburn AL	325

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.272
Ooh, that’s hot	0.169
I love this place	0.166
Location, location, location	0.118

Zurich Classic of New Orleans

April 18, 2022 Thomas Hawley Uncategorized

Patrick Cantlay

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Observed Odds	Course fit
1	Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele	36.1	13-1	69.0
2	Cameron Smith & David Lipsky	37.3	14-1	69.2
3	Sam Burns & Billy Horschel	38.3	15-1	69.2
4	Scottie Scheffler & Doc Redman	42.7	18-1	69.3
5	Talor Gooch & Max Homa	42.8	18-1	69.2
6	Sergio Garcia & Tommy Fleetwood	43.5	20-1	69.4
7	Robert Garrigus & Tommy Gainey	46.3	24-1
8	Viktor Hovland & Sahith Theegala	46.4	24-1	69.2
9	Alex Noren & Mito Pereira	47.2	25-1	69.3
10	Joaquin Niemann & Matthew NeSmith	48.9	25-1	69.3
11	Collin Morikawa & John Huh	50.2	30-1	69.2
12	Shane Lowry & Dylan Wu	51.3	35-1	69.4
13	Will Zalatoris & Patrick Rodgers	51.3	35-1	69.4
14	Keith Mitchell & Robert Streb	54.7	45-1	69.5
15	Keegan Bradley & Brendan Steele	56.6	50-1	69.4
16	Harold Varner & Richy Werenski	56.8	55-1	69.4
17	Patton Kizzire & Brendon Todd	57.1	55-1	69.3
18	Seamus Power & Max McGreevy	57.2	55-1	69.4
19	Tyrrell Hatton & Curtis Thompson	58.1	60-1	69.3
20	Sungjae Im & Byeong Hun An	58.2	60-1	69.4
21	Kevin Kisner & Scott Brown	59.8	75-1	69.5
22	Sepp Straka & David Skinns	59.8	75-1	69.6
23	Cameron Tringale & Wyndham Clark	60.2	75-1	69.3
24	Christiaan Bezuidenhout & Charl Schwartzel	60.5	80-1	69.5
25	Troy Merritt & Andrew Novak	61.2	85-1	69.5
26	Maverick McNealy & Joseph Bramlett	61.7	90-1	69.4
27	Ryan Palmer & Scott Piercy	61.8	90-1	69.4
28	Doug Ghim & Matthias Schwab	61.8	90-1	69.4
29	Marc Leishman & Chase Seiffert	63.0	100-1	69.4
30	Robert MacIntyre & Hank Lebioda	63.4	100-1	69.2
31	Adam Long & Lee Hodges	64.2	100-1	69.5
32	Jason Day & Jason Scrivener	64.4	100-1	69.4
33	Scott Stallings & Brice Garnett	64.5	100-1	69.5
34	Lucas Glover & Chez Reavie	64.5	100-1	69.4
35	Beau Hossler & Matt Wallace	64.6	100-1	69.5
36	Justin Rose & Brandon Wu	64.8	100-1	69.4
37	Ian Poulter & Ben Martin	64.9	100-1	69.5
38	Chris Kirk & Seung-yul Noh	65.2	100-1	69.6
39	Charley Hoffman & Vincent Whaley	65.3	100-1	69.3
40	Joel Dahmen & Stephan Jaeger	65.6	150-1	69.5
41	Taylor Moore & Brandt Snedeker	66.2	150-1	69.4
42	Tom Hoge & Paul Barjon	66.3	150-1	69.2
43	Adam Schenk & Tyler Duncan	66.5	150-1	69.6
44	Sam Horsfield & Nick Watney	66.7	150-1	69.3
45	Russell Knox & Martin Trainer	67.4	200-1	69.7
46	Lucas Herbert & Arjun Atwal	67.5	200-1	69.5
47	Bubba Watson &	67.5	200-1	69.6
48	Harry Higgs & Vaughn Taylor	67.6	200-1	69.4
49	Adam Svensson & Brandon Hagy	68.0	200-1	69.6
50	Alex Smalley & Hayden Buckley	68.1	200-1	69.4
51	Denny McCarthy & Kelly Kraft	68.6	200-1	69.5
52	Martin Laird & Kevin Tway	69.0	250-1	69.6
53	JT Poston & Jim Knous	69.2	250-1	69.5
54	Danny Willett & Jim Herman	69.2	250-1	69.6
55	Brian Stuard & Ben Kohles	69.3	250-1	69.5
56	Greyson Sigg & Henrik Stenson	69.4	250-1	69.8
57	Kevin Chappell & James Hahn	69.8	250-1	69.6
58	Emiliano Grillo & Rafa Cabrera Bello	69.8	250-1	69.4
59	Branden Grace & Garrick Higgo	70.2	300-1	69.5
60	Davis Riley & Jared Wolfe	70.3	300-1	69.6
61	Aaron Rai & Justin Lower	70.4	300-1	69.6
62	Austin Smotherman & Bo Hoag	70.5	300-1	69.4
63	Henrik Norlander & Sean O’Hair	70.8	350-1	69.7
64	Ryan Armour & Michael Gligic	71.2	350-1	69.6
65	Wesley Bryan & Trey Mullinax	71.2	350-1	69.6
66	Mark Hubbard & Ryan Brehm	71.2	350-1	69.6
67	Cameron Percy & Nick Hardy	71.4	350-1	69.4
68	Kurt Kitayama & Kiradech Aphibarnrat	71.6	400-1	69.5
69	Graeme McDowell & Bo Van Pelt	71.7	400-1	69.5
70	Kyle Stanley & Callum Tarren	71.9	400-1	69.5
71	Chad Ramey & Joshua Creel	72.1	400-1	69.6
72	Sam Ryder & Seth Reeves	72.2	400-1	69.4
73	Camilo Villegas & Peter Uihlein	73.2	500-1	69.5
74	Jason Dufner & Austin Cook	73.3	500-1	69.6
75	Jonathan Byrd & Chesson Hadley	73.3	500-1	69.6
76	Danny Lee & Sangmoon Bae	74.2	600-1	69.4
77	Scott Gutschewski & DA Points	75.0	600-1	69.7
78	Sung Kang & Michael Kim	75.5	600-1	69.9
79	Dawie van der Walt & Brett Drewitt	76.2	600-1	69.9
80	Bill Haas & Jay Haas	76.3	600-1	69.8
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 418. The average is 131. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

ISPS Handa Championship in Spain

April 18, 2022 Thomas Hawley Euro Events, Picks

Adri Arnaus

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Adri Arnaus	65.3	74
2	Rasmus Hojgaard	65.5	69
3	Oliver Bekker	65.7	10
4	Bernd Wiesberger	65.9	38
5	Pablo Larrazabal	66.5	1
6	Thriston Lawrence	67.8	38
7	Hennie du Plessis	69.2	3
8	Julien Brun	69.5	56
9	Wade Ormsby	69.7	56
10	Laurie Canter	69.8	30
11	Scott Jamieson	69.8	10
12	Victor Perez	69.9	8
13	Haotong Li	70.0	6
14	Ryan Fox	70.0	15
15	Romain Langasque	70.2	104
16	Alexander Bjork	70.2	117
17	Marcel Siem	70.2	117
18	Ashun Wu	70.5	104
19	Adrian Otaegui	70.6	2
20	Matthieu Pavon	70.6	104
21	Antoine Rozner	71.0	5
22	Matthew Jordan	71.3	15
23	Ross Fisher	71.4	15
24	Johannes Veerman	71.5	38
25	Ewen Ferguson	71.7	104
26	Jeff Winther	71.8	56
27	Hurly Long	71.9	93
28	Wilco Nienaber	72.0	134
29	Kalle Samooja	72.1	38
30	Guido Migliozzi	72.2	56
31	Tom Lewis	72.3	10
32	Joachim B Hansen	72.3	49
33	Daniel van Tonder	72.3	64
34	Connor Syme	72.4	134
35	Andy Sullivan	72.5	104
36	Nicolai Hojgaard	72.5	71
37	Marcus Kinhult	72.5	74
38	Louis de Jager	72.6	38
39	Matthias Schmid	72.6	30
40	Mikko Korhonen	72.6	15
41	Callum Shinkwin	72.8	93
42	Lukas Nemecz	72.8	15
43	Tapio Pulkkanen	72.9	23
44	Craig Howie	72.9	30
45	Aaron Cockerill	73.0	3
46	Sean Crocker	73.1	141
47	Thorbjorn Olesen	73.1	23
48	Jacques Kruyswijk	73.1	93
49	Francesco Laporta	73.2	134
50	Joost Luiten	73.3	81
51	Angel Hidalgo	73.3	30
52	Daniel Gavins	73.5	104
53	Jorge Campillo	73.5	30
54	Jazz Janewattananond	73.6	38
55	Jamie Donaldson	73.6	104
56	Wil Besseling	73.6	74
57	Richard Sterne	73.7	81
58	Grant Forrest	73.7	81
59	Joakim Lagergren	73.8	155
60	Jack Senior	73.9	10
61	Julien Guerrier	74.1	49
62	Paul Waring	74.2	79
63	Justin Walters	74.4	23
64	Nino Bertasio	74.4	117
65	Sami Valimaki	74.4	93
66	John Catlin	74.4	64
67	David Law	74.4	54
68	Chase Hanna	74.5	93
69	Nacho Elvira	74.5	81
70	Matthew Southgate	74.5	67
71	Robert Rock	74.5	38
72	James Morrison	74.7	81
73	Renato Paratore	74.7	154
74	Niklas Norgaard Moller	74.8	104
75	Marcus Helligkilde	74.8	WD
76	Gavin Green	74.8	23
77	Sebastian Soderberg	75.0	141
78	Dale Whitnell	75.2	130
79	Sihwan Kim	75.3	145
80	Niall Kearney	75.3	67
81	Marc Warren	75.3	64
82	Niklas Lemke	75.3	74
83	Oliver Wilson	75.3	30
84	Eddie Pepperell	75.3	15
85	Richard Mansell	75.3	30
86	Darren Fichardt	75.3	8
87	Santiago Tarrio Ben	75.4	117
88	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	75.5	DNP
89	Yannik Paul	75.5	10
90	Adrien Saddier	75.5	15
91	Bryce Easton	75.6	DNP
92	Andrea Pavan	75.6	81
93	Garrick Porteous	75.7	81
94	Pep Angles	75.8	49
95	Zander Lombard	75.8	79
96	Alejandro Del Rey	75.8	93
97	Mike Lorenzo-Vera	75.9	23
98	Stephen Gallacher	76.0	69
99	Espen Kofstad	76.0	150
100	Lars van Meijel	76.0	117
101	Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez	76.0	23
102	Lee Slattery	76.0	DNP
103	Soren Kjeldsen	76.0	56
104	Ben Stow	76.1	73
105	Ryo Hisatsune	76.1	117
106	Darius van Driel	76.2	93
107	Jean-Baptiste Gonnet	76.2	54
108	Chris Paisley	76.2	117
109	Maverick Antcliff	76.2	93
110	Alejandro Canizares	76.3	134
111	Oliver Farr	76.3	117
112	Clement Sordet	76.3	38
113	Ashley Chesters	76.3	23
114	Dave Coupland	76.3	104
115	Nicolai von Dellingshausen	76.4	49
116	Lucas Bjerregaard	76.4	93
117	Alvaro Quiros	76.5	117
118	Ricardo Santos	76.5	117
119	Hugo Leon	76.5	81
120	Max Schmitt	76.6	DNP
121	Yi Keun Chang	76.6	DNP
122	Scott Hend	76.7	104
123	Eduard Rousaud	76.7	81
124	Bernd Ritthammer	76.7	DNP
125	Jonathan Caldwell	76.8	104
126	Lorenzo Gagli	76.8	30
127	Marcel Schneider	77.0	93
128	Zach Murray	77.0	130
129	Ondrej Lieser	77.0	141
130	Thomas Bjorn	77.1	DNP
131	Andrew Wilson	77.1	7
132	Cormac Sharvin	77.2	104
133	Joel Sjoholm	77.2	81
134	Jack Singh Brar	77.2	15
135	Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	77.3	130
136	Benjamin Poke	77.3	56
137	Robin Roussel	77.3	117
138	Richard McEvoy	77.3	74
139	Jake McLeod	77.3	38
140	Rikard Karlberg	77.4	130
141	Daan Huizing	77.4	145
142	Pedro Figueiredo	77.5	147
143	Ricardo Gouveia	77.5	117
144	Oliver Fisher	77.5	134
145	Emilio Cuartero Blanco	77.5	56
146	Matt Ford	77.6	134
147	Joel Stalter	77.6	117
148	Jonathan Thomson	77.7	38
149	Jens Dantorp	77.7	49
150	Kristian Krogh Johannessen	77.7	134
151	David Howell	77.7	151
152	Raphael Jacquelin	77.8	38
153	Haydn Porteous	77.8	93
154	Paul Dunne	77.8	DNP
155	Carlos Pigem	77.8	81
156	Graeme Storm	77.8	104
157	SSP Chawrasia	77.8	56
158	Ivan Cantero Gutierrez	78.0	71
159	Kento Nakai	78.0	141
160	Mark Nishiwaki	78.1	153
161	Koichiro Ishika	78.1	147
162	Shiso Go	78.1	151
163	Jesper Kennegard	78.1	147
	Eduardo de la Riva	late entry	81
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 47. The average is 131. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Apr. 17, 2022)

April 18, 2022 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Strong ratings over the past two years are keeping Jon Rahm in the no. 1 position.

#	Thru Apr. 17, 2022	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Jon Rahm	46	1512	1
2	Justin Thomas	49	1363	2
3	Scottie Scheffler	55	1329	4
4	Patrick Cantlay	41	1302	6
5	Cameron Smith	45	1283	3
6	Dustin Johnson	42	1230	5
7	Viktor Hovland	55	1213	7
8	Rory McIlroy	45	1206	8
9	Collin Morikawa	51	1167	9
10	Xander Schauffele	47	1155	10
11	Daniel Berger	42	1120	11
12	Shane Lowry	53	1056	16
13	Will Zalatoris	43	1050	12
14	Corey Conners	56	1022	14
15	Paul Casey	44	1016	13
16	Sam Burns	49	965	18
17	Tyrrell Hatton	49	949	19
18	Matthew Fitzpatrick	51	946	15
19	Cameron Young	23	941	32
20	Joaquin Niemann	54	940	21
21	Russell Henley	48	939	17
22	Louis Oosthuizen	41	937	20
23	Sungjae Im	64	897	23
24	Hideki Matsuyama	49	896	22
25	Jordan Spieth	47	893	34
26	Brooks Koepka	43	873	24
27	Billy Horschel	53	873	27
28	Talor Gooch	55	863	26
29	Adam Scott	35	862	25
30	Seamus Power	37	848	29
31	Alex Noren	50	829	30
32	Abraham Ancer	55	823	31
33	Webb Simpson	41	812	28
34	Harold Varner	53	789	47
35	Bryson DeChambeau	41	788	33
36	Tommy Fleetwood	51	778	42
37	Sergio Garcia	46	774	36
38	Cameron Tringale	49	774	43
39	Max Homa	51	770	37
40	Kevin Na	48	764	39
41	Kevin Kisner	51	760	35
42	Jason Kokrak	52	754	38
43	Keith Mitchell	51	744	40
44	Tony Finau	55	736	41
45	Brian Harman	54	713	44
46	Adam Hadwin	53	707	48
47	Harris English	44	706	46
48	Si Woo Kim	59	698	45
49	Maverick McNealy	50	698	50
50	Keegan Bradley	56	692	49
51	Patrick Reed	56	682	51
52	Mito Pereira	27	672	53
53	Marc Leishman	49	669	52
54	Erik van Rooyen	51	661	60
55	Aaron Wise	44	646	57
56	Justin Rose	41	631	55
57	Sepp Straka	61	630	64
58	Chris Kirk	47	620	54
59	Gary Woodland	47	611	58
60	Kevin Streelman	55	607	56
61	Sebastian Munoz	59	607	59
62	Matt Kuchar	47	600	74
63	Bubba Watson	42	590	61
64	Ian Poulter	53	567	62
65	Taylor Pendrith	26	554	68
66	Matthew Wolff	44	551	63
67	Ryan Palmer	48	550	67
68	Patton Kizzire	52	546	71
69	Jason Day	41	545	69
70	Troy Merritt	59	539	79
71	Tom Hoge	64	539	66
72	Taylor Montgomery	8	537	70
73	Mac Hughes	54	532	65
74	Lanto Griffin	56	506	72
75	Jhonattan Vegas	49	505	73
76	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	50	502	75
77	Brendan Steele	46	501	76
78	Joel Dahmen	51	499	91
79	Brendon Todd	55	494	84
80	Doug Ghim	47	491	81
81	Robert MacIntyre	47	485	82
82	Charley Hoffman	49	484	77
83	Lee Westwood	44	479	85
84	Cameron Davis	48	475	111
85	Charles Howell	41	474	78
86	Lucas Herbert	38	472	86
87	Denny McCarthy	57	471	80
88	Taylor Moore	18	470	87
89	Sahith Theegala	32	459	83
90	Matt Jones	55	452	89
91	Thomas Pieters	38	442	92
92	Luke List	57	441	88
93	Russell Knox	57	435	90
94	Adam Long	57	435	108
95	CT Pan	51	434	94
96	Dylan Frittelli	58	425	93
97	Lucas Glover	54	420	96
98	Anirban Lahiri	39	411	95
99	Matthew NeSmith	55	411	119
100	Charl Schwartzel	48	405	98
101	Francesco Molinari	29	400	103
102	Zach Johnson	47	398	97
103	Pat Perez	53	397	102
104	Bud Cauley	10	397	105
105	Stewart Cink	45	396	99
106	Scott Stallings	52	393	100
107	JJ Spaun	54	391	101
108	Adam Svensson	23	385	125
109	JT Poston	55	384	147
110	Carlos Ortiz	51	382	104
111	Emiliano Grillo	56	374	106
112	Harry Higgs	55	371	107
113	KH Lee	57	370	110
114	Beau Hossler	53	369	109
115	Cameron Champ	45	364	113
116	Aaron Rai	49	362	115
117	Lee Hodges	26	361	116
118	Martin Laird	38	355	117
119	Richard Bland	45	353	120
120	Rickie Fowler	44	352	112
121	Andrew Putnam	56	352	114
122	Steve Stricker	17	348	122
123	Robert Streb	50	348	121
124	Michael Thompson	48	344	118
125	John Huh	35	335	126
126	Branden Grace	53	335	132
127	Matthias Schwab	49	335	123
128	Rory Sabbatini	48	333	127
129	Matt Wallace	55	325	130
130	Alex Smalley	24	324	124
131	David Lipsky	29	323	131
132	Hudson Swafford	52	321	139
133	Chez Reavie	55	320	128
134	Nick Taylor	51	318	129
135	Bernd Wiesberger	45	318	135
136	Danny Willett	53	318	133
137	Hayden Buckley	23	313	137
138	Padraig Harrington	36	311	138
139	Kramer Hickok	46	309	134
140	Scott Piercy	48	304	174
141	Min Woo Lee	40	301	144
142	Adri Arnaus	45	301	142
143	Brandt Snedeker	52	300	140
144	Oliver Bekker	13	298	143
145	Davis Riley	28	298	136
146	Phil Mickelson	36	297	145
147	Nate Lashley	49	294	141
148	Doc Redman	53	292	146
149	Austin Smotherman	17	287	151
150	Sam Horsfield	36	286	152
151	Brian Stuard	65	283	149
152	Chad Ramey	22	280	148
153	John Augenstein	12	280	153
154	Sam Ryder	59	279	150
155	Mark Hubbard	54	278	155
156	Wyndham Clark	53	277	159
157	Takumi Kanaya	32	269	154
158	Adam Schenk	60	268	156
159	Ryan Armour	47	267	157
160	Vincent Whaley	50	267	158
161	Peter Malnati	56	266	163
162	Greyson Sigg	29	265	160
163	Rasmus Hojgaard	42	265	162
164	Victor Perez	42	261	164
165	Tyler Duncan	57	261	203
166	Henrik Norlander	54	254	161
167	Justin Harding	51	253	169
168	Thomas Detry	47	251	170
169	Roger Sloan	51	251	165
170	Hank Lebioda	46	249	166
171	Austin Eckroat	11	248	171
172	Richy Werenski	55	244	168
173	Dean Burmester	48	238	173
174	Wesley Bryan	23	235	167
175	Danny Lee	49	234	172
176	Kevin Chappell	26	234	176
177	Hennie du Plessis	12	233	175
178	Pablo Larrazabal	41	232	177
179	Victor Dubuisson	23	229	178
180	Jordan Smith	49	228	180
181	Marcus Armitage	50	225	184
182	Andrew Landry	43	225	181
183	Julien Brun	11	223	185
184	Justin Suh	16	223	183
185	Patrick Rodgers	62	220	186
186	Satoshi Kodaira	40	220	179
187	Alexander Bjork	38	218	187
188	Adrian Meronk	46	217	191
189	Thriston Lawrence	15	217	188
190	Kyle Stanley	53	217	190
191	Trey Mullinax	18	217	189
192	James Hahn	41	216	182
193	Chase Seiffert	43	212	192
194	Marcel Siem	24	212	194
195	Max McGreevy	20	209	193
196	Graeme McDowell	48	209	244
197	Sean O’Hair	31	209	196
198	Tyler McCumber	43	208	195
199	Laurie Canter	41	208	197
200	Martin Kaymer	34	207	198
201	Tiger Woods	8	207	199
202	Cameron Percy	41	206	202
203	Andrew Johnston	24	204	201
204	Bo Hoag	50	201	204
205	Brice Garnett	55	200	200
206	Rafa Cabrera Bello	53	197	205
207	Antoine Rozner	46	196	207
208	Wade Ormsby	34	195	206
209	Guido Migliozzi	45	194	209
210	Haotong Li	35	190	210
211	Scott Jamieson	42	189	217
212	Fabrizio Zanotti	31	189	218
213	Shaun Norris	26	188	214
214	Joseph Bramlett	53	188	222
215	Tom Lewis	43	187	215
216	Vaughn Taylor	45	187	219
217	Jason Scrivener	38	187	221
218	Henrik Stenson	43	186	216
219	Ashun Wu	33	185	223
220	Byeong Hun An	42	185	220
221	Brandon Hagy	50	184	212
222	Johannes Veerman	41	184	224
223	Dylan Wu	20	184	229
224	Nicolai Hojgaard	43	183	225
225	Andy Sullivan	44	183	227
226	Ryan Fox	36	183	228
227	Kurt Kitayama	40	183	230
228	Nick Watney	48	182	213
229	Camilo Villegas	45	179	226
230	Jonathan Byrd	29	177	211
231	Kalle Samooja	42	176	232
232	Andrew Novak	20	176	231
233	Robert Garrigus	15	176	233
234	Romain Langasque	45	175	234
235	Joachim B Hansen	48	172	237
236	Brad Kennedy	10	172	236
237	Ryan Moore	32	172	238
238	Jim Furyk	16	171	208
239	Matthieu Pavon	47	170	239
240	Kevin Tway	50	169	235
241	George Coetzee	36	168	242
242	Mikko Korhonen	34	167	243
243	Shubhankar Sharma	51	167	241
244	Sean Crocker	48	165	245
245	Jim Herman	42	165	240
246	Matthew Jordan	46	163	248
247	Hurly Long	20	162	250
248	Luke Donald	45	162	247
249	Paul Barjon	24	161	249
250	Chan Kim	24	161	251
251	Calum Hill	41	160	253
252	Jeff Winther	39	160	252
253	Garrick Higgo	50	160	246
254	Scott Gutschewski	18	158	254
255	Davis Thompson	11	157	255
256	Adrian Otaegui	49	155	258
257	Masahiro Kawamura	54	154	259
258	Ben Martin	34	153	257
259	Brandon Stone	42	152	262
260	Matthias Schmid	21	151	260
261	Chesson Hadley	52	151	256
262	Robby Shelton	44	150	261
263	Jimmy Walker	46	149	264
264	David Horsey	45	148	263
265	Daniel van Tonder	34	146	265
266	Ryosuke Kinoshita	18	146	266
267	Wilco Nienaber	40	145	267
268	Jamie Donaldson	42	144	268
269	Francesco Laporta	46	143	269
270	Trevor Fisher	8	141	270
271	Callum Shinkwin	40	140	271
272	Lukas Nemecz	11	140	272
273	Bronson Burgoon	49	140	273
274	Bo Van Pelt	44	139	276
275	Jason Dufner	47	139	275
276	Joakim Lagergren	40	138	274
277	Ben Kohles	18	138	280
278	Aaron Baddeley	37	138	277
279	Ewen Ferguson	29	137	278
280	Richie Ramsay	46	137	279
281	Brandon Wu	24	135	281
282	Ross Fisher	45	133	284
283	Grant Forrest	46	132	285
284	Shugo Imahira	18	132	286
285	Edoardo Molinari	42	131	289
286	Peter Uihlein	33	131	288
287	Sung Kang	59	130	283
288	Will Gordon	39	130	287
289	Keita Nakajima	11	128	290
290	Rikuya Hoshino	22	128	292
291	Craig Howie	21	128	294
292	Curtis Thompson	22	128	293
293	Stephan Jaeger	28	127	282
294	David Lingmerth	20	127	295
295	Callum Tarren	18	125	297
296	Rob Oppenheim	36	124	296
297	Nick Hardy	20	123	299
298	Wil Besseling	45	123	300
299	Michael Gligic	49	123	291
300	Connor Syme	46	122	302
301	Seonghyeon Kim	8	122	298
302	Jazz Janewattananond	47	121	304
303	Austin Cook	52	120	303
304	MJ Daffue	16	120	301
305	Tapio Pulkkanen	47	119	308
306	John Catlin	45	119	306
307	Marcus Kinhult	36	119	307
308	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	40	119	305
309	Thorbjorn Olesen	34	118	310
310	Justin Lower	17	117	311
311	Seth Reeves	20	117	309
312	Jacques Kruyswijk	29	117	312
313	Daniel Gavins	28	115	313
314	Joost Luiten	47	115	314
315	Louis de Jager	29	113	315
316	Julien Guerrier	44	112	316
317	Bill Haas	45	108	317
318	James Morrison	48	108	319
319	Renato Paratore	47	107	320
320	Jared Wolfe	19	107	322
321	Jacques Blaauw	9	107	321
322	Xinjun Zhang	38	106	318
323	Jack Senior	44	105	326
324	Matthew Southgate	45	105	325
325	Ollie Schniederjans	10	104	323
326	Richard Sterne	16	104	328
327	Mark Anderson	29	103	331
328	Ockie Strydom	8	103	327
329	Ben Taylor	26	103	332
330	Martin Trainer	53	103	324
331	Sami Valimaki	44	103	330
332	Alexander Levy	44	102	334
333	Jorge Campillo	51	101	333
334	Aaron Cockerill	42	100	335
335	Joohyung Kim	12	100	336
336	Justin Walters	49	100	338
337	Scott Brown	46	100	329
338	Akshay Bhatia	15	98	337
339	Dawie van der Walt	20	97	339
340	Hiroshi Iwata	17	97	340
341	Chase Hanna	19	96	343
342	Maximilian Kieffer	46	96	341
343	Kristoffer Broberg	31	95	342
344	David Law	48	95	346
345	CJ du Plessis	8	94	345
346	Chris Baker	29	92	348
347	Kristoffer Ventura	37	92	344
348	Nino Bertasio	41	92	350
349	Marc Warren	38	92	349
350	Benjamin Hebert	38	91	351
351	Keenan Davidse	8	90	355
352	Eddie Pepperell	38	90	352
353	Marcus Helligkilde	12	89	356
354	Jim Knous	17	88	354
355	Seung-yul Noh	27	88	353
356	Ryan Brehm	33	88	347
357	Niklas Norgaard Moller	11	88	359
358	Robert Rock	31	87	357
359	Scott Vincent	31	87	360
360	Chris Stroud	18	86	358
361	Nacho Elvira	49	85	362
362	Michael Gellerman	23	85	361
363	Niall Kearney	23	84	363
364	Dale Whitnell	47	83	364
365	Brian Gay	50	83	371
366	Fabian Gomez	36	82	365
367	Bryce Easton	32	81	366
368	Darren Fichardt	25	81	369
369	Neil Schietekat	11	81	368
370	Kelly Kraft	35	81	367
371	Jinichiro Kozuma	15	80	370
372	JC Ritchie	21	80	375
373	Jayden Schaper	14	80	372
374	Nicolas Colsaerts	31	79	373
375	David Skinns	16	79	374
376	Rafael Campos	31	78	376
377	Tomoharu Otsuki	16	78	377
378	Josh Teater	26	78	382
379	Oscar Lengden	12	78	379
380	Scott Harrington	41	78	378
381	Tommy Gainey	16	78	380
382	Niklas Lemke	36	77	383
383	Berry Henson	15	77	381
384	Andy Ogletree	11	75	384
385	Sebastian Soderberg	45	73	385
386	Yuto Katsuragawa	8	73	386
387	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	13	73	387
388	Paul Peterson	16	72	388
389	Rourke van der Spuy	8	71	389
390	Zander Lombard	46	70	392
391	Hideto Tanihara	11	70	391
392	Paul Waring	30	70	390
393	Jaco Ahlers	12	70	393
394	Yuki Inamori	18	69	394
395	Roberto Castro	10	69	395
396	Andrea Pavan	38	69	399
397	Stephen Gallacher	32	69	398
398	Tim Wilkinson	22	68	396
399	Santiago Tarrio Ben	19	67	404
400	Gavin Green	45	67	400
More \| Less

Perspectives on the RBC Heritage

April 11, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

I love this place!

Player	History
Webb Simpson	0.802
Matt Kuchar	0.720
Ian Poulter	0.649
Matthew Fitzpatrick	0.595
Dustin Johnson	0.576
Brian Harman	0.526
Daniel Berger	0.500
Michael Thompson	0.485

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Justin Thomas	2	1391.8
Cameron Smith	3	1329.7
Dustin Johnson	5	1284.6
Patrick Cantlay	6	1213.7
Collin Morikawa	9	1168.6
Daniel Berger	11	1109.2
Corey Conners	14	981.6
Matthew Fitzpatrick	15	977.1

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1507.1
Scottie Scheffler	4	1325.3
Viktor Hovland	7	1211.6
Rory McIlroy	8	1204.0

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Adam Hadwin	1633.3
Shane Lowry	1478.4
Kevin Kisner	1310.0
Dustin Johnson	1247.0
Corey Conners	1241.7
Cameron Smith	1240.9
Beau Hossler	1088.3
Alex Noren	1041.3

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Cameron Tringale	-643.4
Patrick Cantlay	-578.5
Jordan Spieth	-505.9
Charley Hoffman	-499.9
Webb Simpson	-472.3
Lanto Griffin	-453.3
Taylor Moore	-415.8
Lee Hodges	-359.7

Certain skills required

Stat value	Statistic
0.31	Shots gained off the tee
0.20	Driving accuracy
0.14	Sand saves
0.14	Shots gained around the green

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Sungjae Im	69.98
Patrick Cantlay	70.05
Hayden Buckley	70.06
Collin Morikawa	70.18
Matthew Fitzpatrick	70.19
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	70.20
Corey Conners	70.21
Takumi Kanaya	70.32

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Jimmy Walker	72.7
Stephan Jaeger	72.6
Martin Trainer	72.6
Wesley Bryan	72.6
Luke Donald	72.5
Nick Watney	72.5
Sung Kang	72.2
Brian Gay	72.1

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Russell Henley	Kiawah Island SC	49
Hudson Swafford	St. Simons Island GA	75
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island GA	75
Zach Johnson	St. Simons Island GA	75
JT Poston	St. Simons Island GA	75
Davis Love	St. Simons Island GA	75
Matt Kuchar	St. Simons Island GA	75
Matthew NeSmith	Aiken SC	100
Kevin Kisner	Aiken SC	100

Mathematically speaking

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.251
Ooh, that’s hot	0.183
I love this place	0.161
Location, location, location	0.139

RBC Heritage

April 11, 2022 Thomas Hawley Picks, U.S. Events, Uncategorized

Dustin Johnson

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Dustin Johnson	14.8	72
2	Cameron Smith	18.2	72
3	Justin Thomas	23.1	35
4	Shane Lowry	24.4	3
5	Daniel Berger	27.8	21
6	Matthew Fitzpatrick	28.9	93
7	Corey Conners	29.6	12
8	Patrick Cantlay	32.2	2
9	Collin Morikawa	34.5	26
10	Webb Simpson	35.9	59
11	Alex Noren	36.0	42
12	Russell Henley	36.8	72
13	Kevin Kisner	37.2	72
14	Tyrrell Hatton	37.4	26
15	Adam Hadwin	38.9	26
16	Kevin Streelman	40.1	97
17	Billy Horschel	40.6	21
18	Sungjae Im	43.1	21
19	Harold Varner	43.6	3
20	Tommy Fleetwood	44.1	10
21	Abraham Ancer	45.0	DNP
22	Joaquin Niemann	46.4	12
23	Chris Kirk	47.6	72
24	Kevin Na	48.2	26
25	Si Woo Kim	48.5	42
26	Ian Poulter	48.6	42
27	Brian Harman	49.4	35
28	Matt Kuchar	49.9	3
29	Sebastian Munoz	50.8	DNP
30	Cameron Young	51.5	3
31	Jason Kokrak	51.8	35
32	Jordan Spieth	53.1	1
33	Maverick McNealy	53.4	26
34	Sepp Straka	53.4	3
35	Mito Pereira	53.5	26
36	Anirban Lahiri	55.2	66
37	Beau Hossler	55.7	127
38	Dylan Frittelli	56.1	66
39	Patton Kizzire	56.6	26
40	Troy Merritt	56.9	12
41	Tom Hoge	56.9	104
42	JJ Spaun	57.1	93
43	Cameron Tringale	57.3	12
44	Scott Stallings	57.5	114
45	Erik van Rooyen	57.7	10
46	Aaron Wise	57.9	21
47	Charles Howell	58.4	110
48	Russell Knox	59.1	85
49	CT Pan	59.4	42
50	Doug Ghim	59.5	35
51	Lucas Glover	59.8	48
52	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	59.9	DNP
53	Mac Hughes	60.8	118
54	Emiliano Grillo	61.0	97
55	Denny McCarthy	61.2	56
56	Sahith Theegala	61.5	70
57	Charley Hoffman	61.9	104
58	Stewart Cink	62.0	68
59	Brendon Todd	62.1	26
60	Michael Thompson	62.2	85
61	Matthew NeSmith	62.3	12
62	Brian Stuard	62.4	69
63	Joel Dahmen	62.6	12
64	Luke List	62.7	114
65	JT Poston	62.9	3
66	Lanto Griffin	63.2	85
67	Nate Lashley	63.5	114
68	Adam Long	63.6	12
69	Zach Johnson	63.7	WD
70	Harry Higgs	63.9	72
71	Matthias Schwab	64.2	59
72	Pat Perez	64.3	51
73	Charl Schwartzel	64.4	54
74	Taylor Moore	64.4	DNP
75	Kramer Hickok	64.7	110
76	KH Lee	65.4	97
77	Davis Riley	65.6	128
78	Alex Smalley	65.7	85
79	Danny Willett	65.9	51
80	Chad Ramey	66.2	59
81	Robert Streb	66.4	42
82	Doc Redman	66.5	48
83	Satoshi Kodaira	66.6	121
84	Cameron Davis	66.7	3
85	Rickie Fowler	66.7	118
86	Carlos Ortiz	66.7	93
87	Branden Grace	66.8	35
88	Nick Taylor	66.8	97
89	Brandt Snedeker	67.0	104
90	Aaron Rai	67.3	DNP
91	Takumi Kanaya	67.6	110
92	Hudson Swafford	68.0	35
93	Chez Reavie	68.0	128
94	Scott Piercy	68.0	12
95	Andrew Putnam	68.1	104
96	Lee Hodges	68.1	DNP
97	Danny Lee	68.2	97
98	Hayden Buckley	68.5	DNP
99	Adam Svensson	68.6	26
100	Wesley Bryan	68.7	85
101	Peter Malnati	68.7	42
102	Brice Garnett	68.9	104
103	Richy Werenski	69.1	72
104	Wyndham Clark	69.7	35
105	Nick Watney	69.7	114
106	Adam Schenk	69.9	118
107	Tyler Duncan	70.2	12
108	Sam Ryder	70.3	72
109	Luke Donald	70.4	56
110	Jonathan Byrd	70.5	70
111	Graeme McDowell	70.8	21
112	Henrik Norlander	70.9	97
113	Jim Furyk	71.0	121
114	Hank Lebioda	71.0	72
115	Roger Sloan	71.0	59
116	Max McGreevy	71.4	DNP
117	Patrick Rodgers	71.5	DNP
118	Brandon Hagy	71.6	WD
119	Henrik Stenson	71.7	54
120	James Hahn	71.8	72
121	Joseph Bramlett	72.5	48
122	Jim Herman	73.0	56
123	Kevin Tway	73.3	85
124	Camilo Villegas	73.3	59
125	Chesson Hadley	73.4	85
126	Bill Haas	73.7	59
127	Garrick Higgo	74.1	121
128	Scott Brown	74.2	72
129	Sung Kang	74.6	72
130	Jimmy Walker	74.6	DNP
131	Michael Gligic	74.6	121
132	Stephan Jaeger	75.0	121
133	Martin Trainer	75.1	121
134	Ryan Brehm	75.2	130
135	William McGirt	75.3	85
136	Brian Gay	75.5	51
137	Morgan Hoffmann	77.4	72
138	Davis Love	78.0	93
139	Morgan Deneen	78.2	104
140	James Piot	78.2	97
	Ben Martin	late entry	64
	Bryson Nimmer	late entry	113
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 85. The average is 130. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Apr. 10, 2022)

April 11, 2022 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Strong ratings over the past two years are keeping Jon Rahm in the no. 1 position.

#	Thru Apr. 10, 2022	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Jon Rahm	46	1507	1
2	Justin Thomas	48	1392	2
3	Cameron Smith	44	1330	5
4	Scottie Scheffler	55	1325	3
5	Dustin Johnson	41	1285	4
6	Patrick Cantlay	40	1214	6
7	Viktor Hovland	55	1212	7
8	Rory McIlroy	45	1204	10
9	Collin Morikawa	50	1169	11
10	Xander Schauffele	47	1157	8
11	Daniel Berger	41	1109	9
12	Will Zalatoris	43	1046	15
13	Paul Casey	44	1009	12
14	Corey Conners	55	982	19
15	Matthew Fitzpatrick	50	977	18
16	Shane Lowry	52	976	22
17	Russell Henley	47	974	14
18	Sam Burns	49	966	13
19	Tyrrell Hatton	48	945	16
20	Louis Oosthuizen	41	933	17
21	Joaquin Niemann	53	897	20
22	Hideki Matsuyama	49	895	26
23	Sungjae Im	63	881	32
24	Brooks Koepka	43	870	21
25	Adam Scott	35	864	23
26	Talor Gooch	55	862	33
27	Billy Horschel	52	853	24
28	Webb Simpson	40	849	25
29	Seamus Power	37	846	30
30	Alex Noren	49	842	29
31	Abraham Ancer	55	822	27
32	Cameron Young	22	799	28
33	Bryson DeChambeau	41	791	31
34	Jordan Spieth	46	790	34
35	Kevin Kisner	50	784	35
36	Sergio Garcia	46	772	37
37	Max Homa	51	766	36
38	Jason Kokrak	51	758	42
39	Kevin Na	47	748	45
40	Keith Mitchell	51	739	39
41	Tony Finau	55	736	38
42	Tommy Fleetwood	50	724	51
43	Cameron Tringale	48	724	41
44	Brian Harman	53	714	40
45	Si Woo Kim	58	707	43
46	Harris English	44	707	44
47	Harold Varner	52	706	47
48	Adam Hadwin	52	693	46
49	Keegan Bradley	56	688	48
50	Maverick McNealy	49	684	50
51	Patrick Reed	56	682	49
52	Marc Leishman	49	668	53
53	Mito Pereira	26	650	54
54	Chris Kirk	46	639	55
55	Justin Rose	41	631	52
56	Kevin Streelman	54	624	57
57	Aaron Wise	43	616	59
58	Gary Woodland	47	612	56
59	Sebastian Munoz	59	607	60
60	Erik van Rooyen	50	600	58
61	Bubba Watson	42	591	61
62	Ian Poulter	52	572	63
63	Matthew Wolff	44	558	62
64	Sepp Straka	60	554	69
65	Mac Hughes	53	553	65
66	Tom Hoge	63	553	66
67	Ryan Palmer	48	551	64
68	Taylor Pendrith	26	550	67
69	Jason Day	41	546	68
70	Taylor Montgomery	8	531	70
71	Patton Kizzire	51	526	71
72	Lanto Griffin	55	523	72
73	Jhonattan Vegas	49	504	74
74	Matt Kuchar	46	502	76
75	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	50	502	73
76	Brendan Steele	46	500	75
77	Charley Hoffman	48	500	77
78	Charles Howell	40	495	78
79	Troy Merritt	58	489	79
80	Denny McCarthy	56	483	82
81	Doug Ghim	46	483	81
82	Robert MacIntyre	47	483	88
83	Sahith Theegala	31	479	83
84	Brendon Todd	54	477	84
85	Lee Westwood	44	477	98
86	Lucas Herbert	38	472	80
87	Taylor Moore	18	471	85
88	Luke List	56	454	86
89	Matt Jones	55	453	89
90	Russell Knox	56	445	90
91	Joel Dahmen	50	444	91
92	Thomas Pieters	38	443	87
93	Dylan Frittelli	57	439	92
94	CT Pan	50	435	93
95	Anirban Lahiri	38	426	94
96	Lucas Glover	53	425	99
97	Zach Johnson	46	416	95
98	Charl Schwartzel	47	411	125
99	Stewart Cink	44	411	96
100	Scott Stallings	51	407	100
101	JJ Spaun	53	404	109
102	Pat Perez	52	402	101
103	Francesco Molinari	29	400	97
104	Carlos Ortiz	50	395	102
105	Bud Cauley	10	394	103
106	Emiliano Grillo	55	385	106
107	Harry Higgs	54	383	127
108	Adam Long	56	383	105
109	Beau Hossler	52	383	107
110	KH Lee	56	380	104
111	Cameron Davis	47	374	108
112	Rickie Fowler	43	367	110
113	Cameron Champ	45	365	151
114	Andrew Putnam	55	362	112
115	Aaron Rai	49	362	111
116	Lee Hodges	26	360	114
117	Martin Laird	38	356	113
118	Michael Thompson	47	356	115
119	Matthew NeSmith	54	355	116
120	Richard Bland	45	351	117
121	Robert Streb	49	348	118
122	Steve Stricker	17	347	119
123	Matthias Schwab	48	343	121
124	Alex Smalley	23	343	120
125	Adam Svensson	22	337	123
126	John Huh	35	336	122
127	Rory Sabbatini	48	335	124
128	Chez Reavie	54	333	126
129	Nick Taylor	50	328	128
130	Matt Wallace	55	326	129
131	David Lipsky	29	323	130
132	Branden Grace	52	322	131
133	Danny Willett	52	321	163
134	Kramer Hickok	45	319	132
135	Bernd Wiesberger	45	318	134
136	Davis Riley	27	314	136
137	Hayden Buckley	23	314	135
138	Padraig Harrington	36	311	133
139	Hudson Swafford	51	311	145
140	Brandt Snedeker	51	309	137
141	Nate Lashley	48	305	138
142	Adri Arnaus	45	301	139
143	Oliver Bekker	13	299	140
144	Min Woo Lee	40	299	183
145	Phil Mickelson	36	297	142
146	Doc Redman	52	295	141
147	JT Poston	54	293	143
148	Chad Ramey	21	293	144
149	Brian Stuard	64	290	146
150	Sam Ryder	58	287	148
151	Austin Smotherman	17	286	150
152	Sam Horsfield	36	286	149
153	John Augenstein	12	282	152
154	Takumi Kanaya	31	282	147
155	Mark Hubbard	54	279	153
156	Adam Schenk	59	276	154
157	Ryan Armour	47	268	155
158	Vincent Whaley	50	266	157
159	Wyndham Clark	52	266	158
160	Greyson Sigg	29	265	160
161	Henrik Norlander	53	265	156
162	Rasmus Hojgaard	42	264	161
163	Peter Malnati	55	264	159
164	Victor Perez	42	260	162
165	Roger Sloan	50	257	166
166	Hank Lebioda	45	257	165
167	Wesley Bryan	22	254	164
168	Richy Werenski	54	252	167
169	Justin Harding	51	251	168
170	Thomas Detry	47	251	169
171	Austin Eckroat	11	248	170
172	Danny Lee	48	244	171
173	Dean Burmester	48	238	172
174	Scott Piercy	47	237	173
175	Hennie du Plessis	12	233	174
176	Kevin Chappell	26	232	176
177	Pablo Larrazabal	41	232	175
178	Victor Dubuisson	23	230	177
179	Satoshi Kodaira	39	229	179
180	Jordan Smith	49	228	182
181	Andrew Landry	43	227	178
182	James Hahn	40	227	180
183	Justin Suh	16	226	181
184	Marcus Armitage	50	224	184
185	Julien Brun	11	224	186
186	Patrick Rodgers	62	222	185
187	Alexander Bjork	38	218	187
188	Thriston Lawrence	15	217	189
189	Trey Mullinax	18	217	188
190	Kyle Stanley	53	217	191
191	Adrian Meronk	46	216	190
192	Chase Seiffert	43	213	192
193	Max McGreevy	20	210	193
194	Marcel Siem	24	210	196
195	Tyler McCumber	43	209	195
196	Sean O’Hair	31	209	197
197	Laurie Canter	41	208	194
198	Martin Kaymer	34	208	198
199	Tiger Woods	8	206
200	Brice Garnett	54	205	201
201	Andrew Johnston	24	205	199
202	Cameron Percy	41	205	200
203	Tyler Duncan	56	202	202
204	Bo Hoag	50	200	203
205	Rafa Cabrera Bello	53	198	205
206	Wade Ormsby	34	195	207
207	Antoine Rozner	46	195	206
208	Jim Furyk	15	195	209
209	Guido Migliozzi	45	193	204
210	Haotong Li	35	191	208
211	Jonathan Byrd	28	190	210
212	Brandon Hagy	49	190	216
213	Nick Watney	47	189	212
214	Shaun Norris	26	189	215
215	Tom Lewis	43	189	211
216	Henrik Stenson	42	189	218
217	Scott Jamieson	42	188	214
218	Fabrizio Zanotti	31	188	213
219	Vaughn Taylor	45	186	220
220	Byeong Hun An	42	186	217
221	Jason Scrivener	38	186	219
222	Joseph Bramlett	52	185	222
223	Ashun Wu	33	184	225
224	Johannes Veerman	41	184	223
225	Nicolai Hojgaard	43	184	221
226	Camilo Villegas	44	184	226
227	Andy Sullivan	44	183	224
228	Ryan Fox	36	182	227
229	Dylan Wu	20	182	228
230	Kurt Kitayama	40	181	229
231	Andrew Novak	20	176	230
232	Kalle Samooja	42	176	231
233	Robert Garrigus	15	175	236
234	Romain Langasque	45	175	232
235	Kevin Tway	49	174	233
236	Brad Kennedy	10	174	235
237	Joachim B Hansen	48	173	234
238	Ryan Moore	32	172	237
239	Matthieu Pavon	47	170	238
240	Jim Herman	41	168	240
241	Shubhankar Sharma	51	167	241
242	George Coetzee	36	167	242
243	Mikko Korhonen	34	167	243
244	Graeme McDowell	47	166	244
245	Sean Crocker	48	165	245
246	Garrick Higgo	49	164	239
247	Luke Donald	44	163	247
248	Matthew Jordan	46	162	246
249	Paul Barjon	24	162	249
250	Hurly Long	20	161	250
251	Chan Kim	24	161	248
252	Jeff Winther	39	161	251
253	Calum Hill	41	159	252
254	Scott Gutschewski	18	159	254
255	Davis Thompson	11	157	253
256	Chesson Hadley	51	156	255
257	Ben Martin	33	156	256
258	Adrian Otaegui	49	155	257
259	Masahiro Kawamura	54	154	258
260	Matthias Schmid	21	152	260
261	Robby Shelton	44	152	259
262	Brandon Stone	42	152	261
263	David Horsey	45	149	262
264	Jimmy Walker	46	148	264
265	Daniel van Tonder	34	146	265
266	Ryosuke Kinoshita	18	146	268
267	Wilco Nienaber	40	146	266
268	Jamie Donaldson	42	145	267
269	Francesco Laporta	46	144	269
270	Trevor Fisher	8	141	270
271	Callum Shinkwin	40	140	271
272	Lukas Nemecz	11	140	274
273	Bronson Burgoon	49	140	273
274	Joakim Lagergren	40	139	272
275	Jason Dufner	47	139	275
276	Bo Van Pelt	44	138	280
277	Aaron Baddeley	37	138	276
278	Ewen Ferguson	29	137	277
279	Richie Ramsay	46	137	279
280	Ben Kohles	18	137	278
281	Brandon Wu	24	135	284
282	Stephan Jaeger	27	134	281
283	Sung Kang	58	134	282
284	Ross Fisher	45	133	287
285	Grant Forrest	46	132	286
286	Shugo Imahira	18	132	285
287	Will Gordon	39	132	283
288	Peter Uihlein	33	131	288
289	Edoardo Molinari	42	130	289
290	Keita Nakajima	11	128	263
291	Michael Gligic	48	128	290
292	Rikuya Hoshino	22	128	291
293	Curtis Thompson	22	127	293
294	Craig Howie	21	127	292
295	David Lingmerth	20	126	297
296	Rob Oppenheim	36	125	294
297	Callum Tarren	18	124	301
298	Seonghyeon Kim	8	124	296
299	Nick Hardy	20	123	299
300	Wil Besseling	45	123	300
301	MJ Daffue	16	123	295
302	Connor Syme	46	122	302
303	Austin Cook	52	122	298
304	Jazz Janewattananond	47	121	304
305	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	40	120	305
306	John Catlin	45	120	303
307	Marcus Kinhult	36	120	306
308	Tapio Pulkkanen	47	119	307
309	Seth Reeves	20	118	308
310	Thorbjorn Olesen	34	117	310
311	Justin Lower	17	117	309
312	Jacques Kruyswijk	29	116	311
313	Daniel Gavins	28	116	312
314	Joost Luiten	47	115	313
315	Louis de Jager	29	113	314
316	Julien Guerrier	44	112	315
317	Bill Haas	44	109	317
318	Xinjun Zhang	38	109	316
319	James Morrison	48	108	321
320	Renato Paratore	47	108	319
321	Jacques Blaauw	9	108	318
322	Jared Wolfe	19	107	323
323	Ollie Schniederjans	10	106	320
324	Martin Trainer	52	106	322
325	Matthew Southgate	45	106	325
326	Jack Senior	44	106	324
327	Ockie Strydom	8	104	326
328	Richard Sterne	16	103	327
329	Scott Brown	45	103	329
330	Sami Valimaki	44	103	328
331	Mark Anderson	29	103	330
332	Ben Taylor	26	102	332
333	Jorge Campillo	51	102	331
334	Alexander Levy	44	101	334
335	Aaron Cockerill	42	101	335
336	Joohyung Kim	12	100	336
337	Akshay Bhatia	15	100	333
338	Justin Walters	49	100	337
339	Dawie van der Walt	20	98	338
340	Hiroshi Iwata	17	97	340
341	Maximilian Kieffer	46	96	341
342	Kristoffer Broberg	31	96	342
343	Chase Hanna	19	96	344
344	Kristoffer Ventura	37	95	339
345	CJ du Plessis	8	95	343
346	David Law	48	95	345
347	Ryan Brehm	32	94	346
348	Chris Baker	29	93	347
349	Marc Warren	38	92	348
350	Nino Bertasio	41	92	349
351	Benjamin Hebert	38	91	351
352	Eddie Pepperell	38	91	350
353	Seung-yul Noh	27	90	352
354	Jim Knous	17	90	353
355	Keenan Davidse	8	90	354
356	Marcus Helligkilde	12	89	355
357	Robert Rock	31	88	356
358	Chris Stroud	18	87	357
359	Niklas Norgaard Moller	11	87	358
360	Scott Vincent	31	87	359
361	Michael Gellerman	23	84	361
362	Nacho Elvira	49	84	360
363	Niall Kearney	23	83	364
364	Dale Whitnell	47	83	363
365	Fabian Gomez	36	83	362
366	Bryce Easton	32	81	366
367	Kelly Kraft	35	81	367
368	Neil Schietekat	11	81	365
369	Darren Fichardt	25	80	370
370	Jinichiro Kozuma	15	80	369
371	Brian Gay	49	80	368
372	Jayden Schaper	14	80	373
373	Nicolas Colsaerts	31	80	372
374	David Skinns	16	79	371
375	JC Ritchie	21	79	374
376	Rafael Campos	31	78	377
377	Tomoharu Otsuki	16	78	375
378	Scott Harrington	41	78	376
379	Oscar Lengden	12	78	378
380	Tommy Gainey	16	78	381
381	Berry Henson	15	77	379
382	Josh Teater	26	77	382
383	Niklas Lemke	36	77	380
384	Andy Ogletree	11	75	383
385	Sebastian Soderberg	45	74	384
386	Yuto Katsuragawa	8	73	385
387	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	13	73	386
388	Paul Peterson	16	72	388
389	Rourke van der Spuy	8	72	387
390	Paul Waring	30	70	389
391	Hideto Tanihara	11	70	390
392	Zander Lombard	46	70	391
393	Jaco Ahlers	12	70	394
394	Yuki Inamori	18	69	393
395	Roberto Castro	10	69	392
396	Tim Wilkinson	22	69	396
397	William McGirt	24	69	395
398	Stephen Gallacher	32	69	397
399	Andrea Pavan	38	68	399
400	Gavin Green	45	68	398
More \| Less

Perspectives on the Masters Tournament

April 4, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

I love this place!

Player	History
Hideki Matsuyama	0.807
Jon Rahm	0.785
Jordan Spieth	0.763
Justin Thomas	0.734
Webb Simpson	0.730
Justin Rose	0.689
Patrick Reed	0.672
Rory McIlroy	0.650

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1521.0
Justin Thomas	2	1346.3
Scottie Scheffler	3	1250.1
Dustin Johnson	4	1249.6
Cameron Smith	5	1245.6
Patrick Cantlay	6	1243.7
Viktor Hovland	7	1215.5
Xander Schauffele	8	1201.4

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Alex Noren	29	841.9
Keith Mitchell	39	737.4
Cameron Tringale	41	723.3
Harris English	44	706.9

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Scottie Scheffler	1697.3
Tyrrell Hatton	1628.2
Max Homa	1554.2
Viktor Hovland	1378.8
Shane Lowry	1337.1
Sepp Straka	1267.5
Kevin Kisner	1248.1
Corey Conners	1177.8

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Bryson DeChambeau	-822.5
Webb Simpson	-699.4
Matthew Wolff	-581.3
Ryan Palmer	-547.0
Justin Rose	-531.4
Bubba Watson	-473.6
Louis Oosthuizen	-407.5
Luke List	-351.1

Certain skills required

Stat value	Statistic
0.15	Putts per GIR
0.14	Scrambling
0.08	Greens in regulation
0.07	Shots gained off the tee

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Jon Rahm	72.31
Thomas Pieters	72.40
Patrick Cantlay	72.40
Padraig Harrington	72.49
Cameron Young	72.53
Sungjae Im	72.63
Sergio Garcia	72.63
Viktor Hovland	72.64

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Guido Migliozzi	74.3
Charl Schwartzel	73.6
Takumi Kanaya	73.6
Garrick Higgo	73.5
Min Woo Lee	73.5
Matthew Wolff	73.5
Gary Woodland	73.5
Danny Willett	73.5

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Luke List	Augusta GA	2
Kevin Kisner	Aiken SC	16
Stewart Cink	Atlanta GA	75
Sepp Straka	Athens GA	75
Russell Henley	Kiawah Island SC	125
Webb Simpson	Charlotte NC	125
Mac Hughes	Charlotte NC	125
Harold Varner	Charlotte NC	150

Mathematically speaking

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.214
Ooh, that’s hot	0.158
I love this place	0.125
Location, location, location	0.120

Masters Tournament

April 4, 2022 Thomas Hawley Picks, U.S. Events

Jon Rahm

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Jon Rahm	12.2	27
2	Dustin Johnson	13.9	12
3	Scottie Scheffler	17.6	1
4	Justin Thomas	19.4	8
5	Cameron Smith	22.4	3
6	Viktor Hovland	23.2	27
7	Xander Schauffele	24.5	64
8	Rory McIlroy	26.8	2
9	Tyrrell Hatton	29.6	52
10	Corey Conners	31.8	6
11	Patrick Cantlay	32.4	39
12	Daniel Berger	33.0	50
13	Sam Burns	33.5	53
14	Shane Lowry	34.4	3
15	Paul Casey	35.6	DNP
16	Matthew Fitzpatrick	35.9	14
17	Brooks Koepka	36.0	59
18	Collin Morikawa	36.5	5
19	Russell Henley	37.4	30
20	Will Zalatoris	37.7	6
21	Max Homa	37.8	48
22	Kevin Kisner	38.5	44
23	Adam Scott	38.8	48
24	Hideki Matsuyama	39.4	14
25	Billy Horschel	39.6	43
26	Jordan Spieth	40.1	59
27	Joaquin Niemann	40.2	35
28	Louis Oosthuizen	44.3	WD
29	Tommy Fleetwood	44.8	14
30	Abraham Ancer	45.7	64
31	Tony Finau	46.2	35
32	Patrick Reed	46.3	35
33	Si Woo Kim	46.4	39
34	Cameron Young	46.4	76
35	Webb Simpson	47.0	35
36	Gary Woodland	47.2	69
37	Talor Gooch	48.1	14
38	Seamus Power	48.7	27
39	Sepp Straka	48.9	30
40	Sergio Garcia	49.1	23
41	Harold Varner	49.8	23
42	Marc Leishman	49.8	30
43	Sungjae Im	50.8	8
44	Kevin Na	52.8	14
45	Brian Harman	53.8	53
46	Justin Rose	54.1	69
47	Bryson DeChambeau	54.1	82
48	Jason Kokrak	54.9	14
49	Erik van Rooyen	56.1	69
50	Bubba Watson	56.7	39
51	Lucas Herbert	57.7	59
52	Tom Hoge	59.4	39
53	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	59.7	44
54	Robert MacIntyre	59.9	23
55	Mac Hughes	61.1	50
56	Thomas Pieters	62.0	85
57	JJ Spaun	62.5	23
58	Matthew Wolff	62.7	85
59	Ryan Palmer	62.8	59
60	Francesco Molinari	63.0	69
61	Zach Johnson	63.3	53
62	Stewart Cink	63.5	64
63	Lucas Glover	64.1	30
64	Luke List	64.9	69
65	Lee Westwood	66.1	14
66	KH Lee	66.5	53
67	Padraig Harrington	66.6	53
68	Takumi Kanaya	66.7	53
69	Cameron Davis	68.3	46
70	Charl Schwartzel	68.4	10
71	Danny Willett	69.5	12
72	Harry Higgs	69.5	14
73	Cameron Champ	70.1	10
74	Hudson Swafford	70.7	30
75	Min Woo Lee	71.9	14
76	Keita Nakajima	72.1	64
77	Guido Migliozzi	74.0	69
78	Garrick Higgo	74.5	78
79	Tiger Woods	74.9	47
80	Bernhard Langer	76.3	69
81	Mike Weir	77.3	59
82	Stewart Hagestad	77.5	87
83	Fred Couples	77.8	76
84	Jose Maria Olazabal	77.8	88
85	Vijay Singh	77.9	83
86	Larry Mize	77.9	78
87	Sandy Lyle	77.9	83
88	Aaron Jarvis	78.2	78
89	Austin Greaser	78.2	64
90	James Piot	78.2	78
91	Laird Shepherd	78.2	89
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 139. The average is 130. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Apr. 3, 2022)

April 4, 2022 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Although he hasn’t won this season, Jon Rahm is into his 15th month as no. 1 in the Hawley Ratings.

#	Thru Apr. 3, 2022	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Jon Rahm	45	1521	1
2	Justin Thomas	47	1346	2
3	Scottie Scheffler	54	1250	4
4	Dustin Johnson	40	1250	3
5	Cameron Smith	43	1246	6
6	Patrick Cantlay	39	1244	5
7	Viktor Hovland	54	1216	7
8	Xander Schauffele	46	1201	8
9	Daniel Berger	40	1151	10
10	Rory McIlroy	44	1115	9
11	Collin Morikawa	49	1101	11
12	Paul Casey	44	1005	12
13	Sam Burns	48	992	13
14	Russell Henley	46	980	14
15	Will Zalatoris	42	975	16
16	Tyrrell Hatton	47	972	15
17	Louis Oosthuizen	40	971	17
18	Matthew Fitzpatrick	49	937	18
19	Corey Conners	54	918	19
20	Joaquin Niemann	52	904	20
21	Brooks Koepka	42	900	21
22	Shane Lowry	51	893	23
23	Adam Scott	34	890	22
24	Billy Horschel	51	869	26
25	Webb Simpson	39	861	27
26	Hideki Matsuyama	48	856	24
27	Abraham Ancer	54	848	28
28	Cameron Young	21	847	29
29	Alex Noren	49	842	30
30	Seamus Power	36	839	31
31	Bryson DeChambeau	40	832	25
32	Sungjae Im	62	829	32
33	Talor Gooch	54	825	33
34	Jordan Spieth	45	811	34
35	Kevin Kisner	49	803	35
36	Max Homa	50	779	36
37	Sergio Garcia	45	751	37
38	Tony Finau	54	738	38
39	Keith Mitchell	51	737	39
40	Brian Harman	52	728	40
41	Cameron Tringale	48	723	41
42	Jason Kokrak	50	715	42
43	Si Woo Kim	57	713	47
44	Harris English	44	707	43
45	Kevin Na	46	699	44
46	Adam Hadwin	52	691	54
47	Harold Varner	51	688	46
48	Keegan Bradley	56	686	52
49	Patrick Reed	55	684	48
50	Maverick McNealy	49	683	45
51	Tommy Fleetwood	49	680	49
52	Justin Rose	40	661	50
53	Marc Leishman	48	659	51
54	Mito Pereira	26	647	62
55	Chris Kirk	46	637	53
56	Gary Woodland	46	633	64
57	Kevin Streelman	54	623	58
58	Erik van Rooyen	49	621	55
59	Aaron Wise	43	615	56
60	Sebastian Munoz	59	607	57
61	Bubba Watson	41	596	59
62	Matthew Wolff	43	587	60
63	Ian Poulter	52	573	61
64	Ryan Palmer	47	571	63
65	Mac Hughes	52	568	65
66	Tom Hoge	62	553	66
67	Taylor Pendrith	26	552	68
68	Jason Day	41	548	67
69	Sepp Straka	59	545	69
70	Taylor Montgomery	8	529	72
71	Patton Kizzire	51	525	70
72	Lanto Griffin	55	524	71
73	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	49	506	76
74	Jhonattan Vegas	49	503	81
75	Brendan Steele	46	502	74
76	Matt Kuchar	46	501	92
77	Charley Hoffman	48	498	73
78	Charles Howell	40	492	95
79	Troy Merritt	58	488	89
80	Lucas Herbert	37	488	79
81	Doug Ghim	46	484	78
82	Denny McCarthy	56	483	83
83	Sahith Theegala	31	479	77
84	Brendon Todd	54	477	90
85	Taylor Moore	18	471	75
86	Luke List	55	469	80
87	Thomas Pieters	37	462	82
88	Robert MacIntyre	46	452	86
89	Matt Jones	55	449	103
90	Russell Knox	56	446	84
91	Joel Dahmen	50	446	85
92	Dylan Frittelli	57	440	98
93	CT Pan	50	434	87
94	Anirban Lahiri	38	427	108
95	Zach Johnson	45	427	101
96	Stewart Cink	43	425	91
97	Francesco Molinari	28	419	93
98	Lee Westwood	43	417	88
99	Lucas Glover	52	410	105
100	Scott Stallings	51	408	109
101	Pat Perez	52	401	94
102	Carlos Ortiz	50	395	97
103	Bud Cauley	10	392	99
104	KH Lee	55	385	96
105	Adam Long	56	384	102
106	Emiliano Grillo	55	382	104
107	Beau Hossler	52	380	134
108	Cameron Davis	46	376	107
109	JJ Spaun	52	376	138
110	Rickie Fowler	43	368	100
111	Aaron Rai	49	363	116
112	Andrew Putnam	55	360	113
113	Martin Laird	38	359	118
114	Lee Hodges	26	358	106
115	Michael Thompson	47	358	114
116	Matthew NeSmith	54	355	110
117	Richard Bland	45	351	127
118	Robert Streb	49	348	112
119	Steve Stricker	17	345	119
120	Alex Smalley	23	344	111
121	Matthias Schwab	48	343	151
122	John Huh	35	338	121
123	Adam Svensson	22	337	115
124	Rory Sabbatini	48	336	122
125	Charl Schwartzel	46	334	128
126	Chez Reavie	54	333	117
127	Harry Higgs	53	330	120
128	Nick Taylor	50	326	124
129	Matt Wallace	55	326	123
130	David Lipsky	29	320	125
131	Branden Grace	52	320	131
132	Kramer Hickok	45	319	129
133	Padraig Harrington	35	318	132
134	Bernd Wiesberger	45	317	133
135	Hayden Buckley	23	316	126
136	Davis Riley	27	312	130
137	Brandt Snedeker	51	306	155
138	Nate Lashley	48	304	157
139	Adri Arnaus	45	300	139
140	Oliver Bekker	13	299	140
141	Doc Redman	52	298	135
142	Phil Mickelson	36	297	143
143	JT Poston	54	295	146
144	Chad Ramey	21	293	147
145	Hudson Swafford	50	291	141
146	Brian Stuard	64	290	144
147	Takumi Kanaya	30	289	137
148	Sam Ryder	58	287	145
149	Sam Horsfield	36	286	150
150	Austin Smotherman	17	286	136
151	Cameron Champ	44	285	142
152	John Augenstein	12	284	148
153	Mark Hubbard	54	280	152
154	Adam Schenk	59	277	149
155	Ryan Armour	47	269	156
156	Henrik Norlander	53	267	154
157	Vincent Whaley	50	266	167
158	Wyndham Clark	52	265	153
159	Peter Malnati	55	265	159
160	Greyson Sigg	29	264	160
161	Rasmus Hojgaard	42	264	187
162	Victor Perez	42	259	162
163	Danny Willett	51	257	164
164	Wesley Bryan	22	256	163
165	Hank Lebioda	45	256	158
166	Roger Sloan	50	255	161
167	Richy Werenski	54	252	166
168	Justin Harding	51	251	169
169	Thomas Detry	47	250	168
170	Austin Eckroat	11	247	170
171	Danny Lee	48	245	165
172	Dean Burmester	48	238	172
173	Scott Piercy	47	237	173
174	Hennie du Plessis	12	235	175
175	Pablo Larrazabal	41	231	178
176	Kevin Chappell	26	231	249
177	Victor Dubuisson	23	230	177
178	Andrew Landry	43	228	180
179	Satoshi Kodaira	39	228	182
180	James Hahn	40	228	171
181	Justin Suh	16	228	179
182	Jordan Smith	49	227	183
183	Min Woo Lee	39	227	174
184	Marcus Armitage	50	225	185
185	Patrick Rodgers	62	223	181
186	Julien Brun	11	223	186
187	Alexander Bjork	38	218	189
188	Trey Mullinax	18	218	176
189	Thriston Lawrence	15	218	190
190	Adrian Meronk	46	216	191
191	Kyle Stanley	53	216	188
192	Chase Seiffert	43	214	192
193	Max McGreevy	20	211	184
194	Laurie Canter	41	209	196
195	Tyler McCumber	43	209	195
196	Marcel Siem	24	208	200
197	Sean O’Hair	31	208	198
198	Martin Kaymer	34	208	197
199	Andrew Johnston	24	206	199
200	Cameron Percy	41	205	201
201	Brice Garnett	54	205	194
202	Tyler Duncan	56	204	193
203	Bo Hoag	50	199	205
204	Guido Migliozzi	44	198	202
205	Rafa Cabrera Bello	53	198	203
206	Antoine Rozner	46	194	210
207	Wade Ormsby	34	194	209
208	Haotong Li	35	193	207
209	Jim Furyk	15	193	214
210	Jonathan Byrd	28	190	212
211	Tom Lewis	43	190	213
212	Nick Watney	47	190	204
213	Fabrizio Zanotti	31	189	218
214	Scott Jamieson	42	188	220
215	Shaun Norris	26	188	206
216	Brandon Hagy	49	188	208
217	Byeong Hun An	42	188	215
218	Henrik Stenson	42	188	265
219	Jason Scrivener	38	185	224
220	Vaughn Taylor	45	185	223
221	Nicolai Hojgaard	43	184	221
222	Joseph Bramlett	52	184	216
223	Johannes Veerman	41	184	222
224	Andy Sullivan	44	183	225
225	Ashun Wu	33	183	226
226	Camilo Villegas	44	183	219
227	Ryan Fox	36	182	227
228	Dylan Wu	20	182	211
229	Kurt Kitayama	40	181	229
230	Andrew Novak	20	177	217
231	Kalle Samooja	42	176	233
232	Romain Langasque	45	175	235
233	Kevin Tway	49	174	228
234	Joachim B Hansen	48	174	232
235	Brad Kennedy	10	174	231
236	Robert Garrigus	15	173	236
237	Ryan Moore	32	172	237
238	Matthieu Pavon	47	171	240
239	Garrick Higgo	48	170	234
240	Jim Herman	41	169	230
241	Shubhankar Sharma	51	167	241
242	George Coetzee	36	167	244
243	Mikko Korhonen	34	166	243
244	Graeme McDowell	47	166	238
245	Sean Crocker	48	165	245
246	Matthew Jordan	46	162	247
247	Luke Donald	44	162	246
248	Chan Kim	24	161	242
249	Paul Barjon	24	160	239
250	Hurly Long	20	160	251
251	Jeff Winther	39	160	250
252	Calum Hill	41	158	253
253	Davis Thompson	11	157	254
254	Scott Gutschewski	18	157	413
255	Chesson Hadley	51	157	252
256	Ben Martin	33	155	248
257	Adrian Otaegui	49	155	256
258	Masahiro Kawamura	54	155	257
259	Robby Shelton	44	154	255
260	Matthias Schmid	21	153	258
261	Brandon Stone	42	152	260
262	David Horsey	45	149	261
263	Keita Nakajima	10	149	262
264	Jimmy Walker	46	148	259
265	Daniel van Tonder	34	147	263
266	Wilco Nienaber	40	145	267
267	Jamie Donaldson	42	145	266
268	Ryosuke Kinoshita	18	145	268
269	Francesco Laporta	46	144	269
270	Trevor Fisher	8	142	272
271	Callum Shinkwin	40	140	273
272	Joakim Lagergren	40	140	274
273	Bronson Burgoon	49	140	270
274	Lukas Nemecz	11	139	275
275	Jason Dufner	47	139	276
276	Aaron Baddeley	37	137	371
277	Ewen Ferguson	29	137	280
278	Ben Kohles	18	136	264
279	Richie Ramsay	46	136	281
280	Bo Van Pelt	44	136	283
281	Stephan Jaeger	27	135	271
282	Sung Kang	58	134	278
283	Will Gordon	39	134	284
284	Brandon Wu	24	133	287
285	Shugo Imahira	18	133	279
286	Grant Forrest	46	133	286
287	Ross Fisher	45	133	289
288	Peter Uihlein	33	131	277
289	Edoardo Molinari	42	130	290
290	Michael Gligic	48	129	282
291	Rikuya Hoshino	22	127	293
292	Craig Howie	21	127	297
293	Curtis Thompson	22	127	285
294	Rob Oppenheim	36	126	296
295	MJ Daffue	16	126	292
296	Seonghyeon Kim	8	125	298
297	David Lingmerth	20	125	299
298	Austin Cook	52	124	291
299	Nick Hardy	20	123	288
300	Wil Besseling	45	123	300
301	Callum Tarren	18	123	301
302	Connor Syme	46	122	302
303	John Catlin	45	121	303
304	Jazz Janewattananond	47	121	306
305	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	40	121	304
306	Marcus Kinhult	36	121	305
307	Tapio Pulkkanen	47	119	307
308	Seth Reeves	20	118	294
309	Justin Lower	17	118	295
310	Thorbjorn Olesen	34	117	308
311	Jacques Kruyswijk	29	116	309
312	Daniel Gavins	28	115	310
313	Joost Luiten	47	115	311
314	Louis de Jager	29	114	313
315	Julien Guerrier	44	113	314
316	Xinjun Zhang	38	112	312
317	Bill Haas	44	109	315
318	Jacques Blaauw	9	109	317
319	Renato Paratore	47	108	318
320	Ollie Schniederjans	10	108	319
321	James Morrison	48	107	320
322	Martin Trainer	52	107	316
323	Jared Wolfe	19	106	422
324	Jack Senior	44	106	324
325	Matthew Southgate	45	106	322
326	Ockie Strydom	8	105	323
327	Richard Sterne	16	104	328
328	Sami Valimaki	44	103	326
329	Scott Brown	45	103	330
330	Mark Anderson	29	103	331
331	Jorge Campillo	51	102	327
332	Ben Taylor	26	102	334
333	Akshay Bhatia	15	101	329
334	Alexander Levy	44	101	332
335	Aaron Cockerill	42	101	335
336	Joohyung Kim	12	100	337
337	Justin Walters	49	99	338
338	Dawie van der Walt	20	98	321
339	Kristoffer Ventura	37	98	333
340	Hiroshi Iwata	17	98	325
341	Maximilian Kieffer	46	97	342
342	Kristoffer Broberg	31	96	341
343	CJ du Plessis	8	96	340
344	Chase Hanna	19	96	343
345	David Law	48	95	344
346	Ryan Brehm	32	94	336
347	Chris Baker	29	93	345
348	Marc Warren	38	92	347
349	Nino Bertasio	41	92	350
350	Eddie Pepperell	38	92	346
351	Benjamin Hebert	38	91	349
352	Seung-yul Noh	27	91	339
353	Jim Knous	17	91	348
354	Keenan Davidse	8	90	352
355	Marcus Helligkilde	12	90	354
356	Robert Rock	31	89	351
357	Chris Stroud	18	89	353
358	Niklas Norgaard Moller	11	87	355
359	Scott Vincent	31	86	356
360	Nacho Elvira	49	84	361
361	Michael Gellerman	23	84	360
362	Fabian Gomez	36	84	359
363	Dale Whitnell	47	83	362
364	Niall Kearney	23	83	363
365	Neil Schietekat	11	82	364
366	Bryce Easton	32	82	365
367	Kelly Kraft	35	81	358
368	Brian Gay	49	81	366
369	Jinichiro Kozuma	15	80	381
370	Darren Fichardt	25	80	368
371	David Skinns	16	80	392
372	Nicolas Colsaerts	31	80	367
373	Jayden Trey Schaper	14	80	369
374	JC Ritchie	21	79	372
375	Tomoharu Otsuki	16	78	357
376	Scott Harrington	41	78	370
377	Rafael Campos	31	78	373
378	Oscar Lengden	12	78	375
379	Berry Henson	15	77	376
380	Niklas Lemke	36	77	377
381	Tommy Gainey	16	77	378
382	Josh Teater	26	76	380
383	Andy Ogletree	11	75	384
384	Sebastian Soderberg	45	74	383
385	Yuto Katsuragawa	8	73
386	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	13	72	386
387	Rourke van der Spuy	8	72	385
388	Paul Peterson	16	71	387
389	Paul Waring	30	71	388
390	Hideto Tanihara	11	71	374
391	Zander Lombard	46	70	391
392	Roberto Castro	10	70	390
393	Yuki Inamori	18	70	379
394	Jaco Ahlers	12	69	394
395	William McGirt	24	69	414
396	Tim Wilkinson	22	69	393
397	Stephen Gallacher	32	68	398
398	Gavin Green	45	68	395
399	Andrea Pavan	38	68	399
400	David Hearn	40	68	396
More \| Less

Perspectives on the Valero Texas Open

March 28, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

NEW This Month

A significant new feature appears at alookatgolf.com this month, providing a set of analytics-based angles that a person might consider in evaluating a PGA Tour event. The data includes the following:
– “I love this place!” Entrants with the best cumulative performance in the event over the past eight years.
– “Certain skills required”. Statistics related to course physical characteristics that have correlated most closely with success on this course.
– “Location, location, location” and “Anyplace but here”. Entrants best-suited and worst-suited for the course based on the statistics from the above set.
– “Top of the heap” and “Sorry, can’t make it”. The top-ranked entrants and highest-ranked players not in the field.
– “Ooh, that’s hot” and “Brr, that’s cold”. The hottest and coldest entrants, based on their prior four appearances in comparison with their current rating.
– “In the neighborhood”. A list of entrants whose residences are closest to the event venue.

An evaluation of the quality of the data appears at the bottom. It shows the extent to which ordering within the lists correlates with finishes.

I love this place!

Player	History
Charley Hoffman	0.625
Matt Kuchar	0.547
Jimmy Walker	0.504
Ryan Palmer	0.452
Chris Kirk	0.440
Jordan Spieth	0.419
Zach Johnson	0.367
Branden Grace	0.364

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Rory McIlroy	9	1159.7
Corey Conners	19	926.8
Hideki Matsuyama	24	887.0
Bryson DeChambeau	25	876.2
Abraham Ancer	28	848.1
Jordan Spieth	34	818.0
Tony Finau	38	739.3
Maverick McNealy	45	688.7

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1516.7
Justin Thomas	2	1349.3
Dustin Johnson	3	1251.0
Scottie Scheffler	4	1247.1

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Chris Kirk	1307.6
Gary Woodland	1175.3
Corey Conners	1172.5
Adam Hadwin	1166.6
Kevin Streelman	1101.7
Rory McIlroy	868.4
CT Pan	562.7
Beau Hossler	551.7

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Bryson DeChambeau	-860.4
Keegan Bradley	-780.0
Ryan Palmer	-586.4
Charley Hoffman	-515.1
Taylor Moore	-452.7
Jordan Spieth	-429.8
Tony Finau	-419.6
Luke List	-404.6

Certain skills required

Stat value	Statistic
0.17	Shots gained in approach
0.12	Shots gained off the tee
0.10	Shots gained putting
0.03	Shots gained around the green

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Bryson DeChambeau	72.30
Min Woo Lee	72.54
Rory McIlroy	72.57
Corey Conners	72.59
Mito Pereira	72.70
Jhonattan Vegas	72.80
Keegan Bradley	72.80
Abraham Ancer	72.82

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Seung-yul Noh	74.1
Martin Trainer	74.1
Jonas Blixt	74.0
David Skinns	73.9
Guido Migliozzi	73.9
Stephan Jaeger	73.9
Justin Lower	73.9
Kevin Chappell	73.8

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Abraham Ancer	San Antonio TX	19
Jimmy Walker	Boerne TX	21
Andrew Landry	Austin TX	50
Dylan Frittelli	Austin TX	50
Bronson Burgoon	The Woodlands TX	175
Paul Barjon	Fort Worth TX	175
Brian Stuard	Fort Worth TX	175
Roger Sloan	Houston TX	175
Jhonattan Vegas	Houston TX	175

Mathematically speaking

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.190
Ooh, that’s hot	0.158
Location, location, location	0.141
I love this place	0.102

Home

I love this place!

Top of the heap

Sorry, can’t make it

Ooh, that’s hot

Brr, that’s cold

Certain skills required

Location, location, location

Anyplace but here

Staying close to home

Mathematically speaking

I love this place!

Top of the heap

Sorry, can’t make it

Ooh, that’s hot

Brr, that’s cold

Certain skills required

Location, location, location

Anyplace but here

Staying close to home

Mathematically speaking

I love this place!

Top of the heap

Sorry, can’t make it

Ooh, that’s hot

Brr, that’s cold

Certain skills required

Location, location, location

Anyplace but here

Staying close to home

Mathematically speaking

I love this place!

Top of the heap

Sorry, can’t make it

Ooh, that’s hot

Brr, that’s cold

Certain skills required

Location, location, location

Anyplace but here

Staying close to home

Mathematically speaking