A Look at Golf – Page 44 – Alookatgolf provides information for the professional golf fan, fantasy golf enthusiast, and daily fantasy sports golf participant. We provide true odds on U.S. and European professional golf events and accurate rankings of U.S. and European pro golfers.

Valero Texas Open

March 28, 2022 Thomas Hawley Picks, U.S. Events

Rory McIlroy

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Rory McIlroy	29.0	83
2	Corey Conners	33.8	35
3	Chris Kirk	41.6	35
4	Hideki Matsuyama	43.2	WD
5	Kevin Streelman	44.8	18
6	Adam Hadwin	46.4	4
7	Abraham Ancer	47.7	DNP
8	Gary Woodland	48.1	8
9	Charley Hoffman	48.8	94
10	Jordan Spieth	50.0	35
11	Maverick McNealy	50.8	35
12	Bryson DeChambeau	52.6	118
13	Si Woo Kim	53.7	13
14	Tony Finau	54.8	29
15	Mito Pereira	55.2	13
16	Keegan Bradley	56.2	8
17	Brendan Steele	56.3	48
18	Patton Kizzire	56.8	105
19	Ian Poulter	56.8	83
20	Jason Day	58.0	DNP
21	Russell Knox	58.1	61
22	CT Pan	58.6	41
23	Doug Ghim	60.0	94
24	Ryan Palmer	60.2	48
25	Robert MacIntyre	60.4	35
26	Dylan Frittelli	60.6	8
27	Jhonattan Vegas	60.9	18
28	Sahith Theegala	61.3	67
29	Anirban Lahiri	61.9	13
30	Matt Kuchar	62.2	2
31	Lanto Griffin	62.5	53
32	Matthew NeSmith	62.7	105
33	Beau Hossler	62.9	4
34	Pat Perez	62.9	73
35	KH Lee	63.2	134
36	Lucas Glover	63.5	18
37	Nick Taylor	63.9	94
38	Troy Merritt	64.0	4
39	Denny McCarthy	64.0	18
40	Charles Howell	64.1	4
41	Taylor Moore	64.4	118
42	Matt Jones	64.6	2
43	Scott Stallings	64.6	13
44	Luke List	64.9	53
45	Martin Laird	65.0	29
46	Chez Reavie	65.1	WD
47	Rickie Fowler	65.2	94
48	Adam Svensson	65.2	73
49	Davis Riley	65.5	63
50	Brian Stuard	65.5	105
51	Lee Westwood	65.5	118
52	Kramer Hickok	65.7	83
53	Adam Long	66.0	35
54	David Lipsky	66.3	125
55	Lee Hodges	66.5	118
56	Matthias Schwab	66.6	8
57	Brendon Todd	66.6	8
58	Robert Streb	66.8	94
59	John Huh	66.8	41
60	JJ Spaun	66.9	1
61	Alex Smalley	66.9	118
62	Doc Redman	67.0	67
63	Zach Johnson	67.5	13
64	Nate Lashley	67.5	18
65	Andrew Putnam	68.1	41
66	Sam Ryder	68.1	109
67	Branden Grace	68.4	94
68	Peter Malnati	68.5	41
69	Takumi Kanaya	68.7	109
70	Austin Smotherman	68.7	61
71	Harry Higgs	68.7	130
72	Aaron Rai	68.9	29
73	Adam Schenk	68.9	73
74	Danny Lee	69.1	WD
75	Brice Garnett	69.3	73
76	Matt Wallace	69.3	137
77	Nick Watney	69.5	125
78	Hayden Buckley	69.5	109
79	Brandt Snedeker	69.5	18
80	Chad Ramey	69.6	41
81	JT Poston	69.8	41
82	Richy Werenski	69.9	48
83	Hudson Swafford	70.5	58
84	Cameron Champ	70.5	83
85	Trey Mullinax	70.6	73
86	Graeme McDowell	70.6	118
87	Kurt Kitayama	70.7	DNP
88	Jimmy Walker	70.9	109
89	Tyler Duncan	71.0	134
90	Greyson Sigg	71.0	41
91	Max McGreevy	71.0	83
92	Wyndham Clark	71.3	71
93	Hank Lebioda	71.4	130
94	Henrik Norlander	71.5	53
95	Roger Sloan	71.5	53
96	Brandon Hagy	71.5	109
97	Camilo Villegas	71.6	73
98	Vincent Whaley	71.8	29
99	Kyle Stanley	71.9	94
100	Patrick Rodgers	72.0	58
101	Andrew Landry	72.0	DNP
102	Kevin Chappell	72.2	18
103	Min Woo Lee	72.2	94
104	James Hahn	72.4	69
105	Brandon Wu	72.4	DNP
106	Joseph Bramlett	72.5	109
107	Dylan Wu	72.6	73
108	Callum Tarren	72.8	DNP
109	Garrick Higgo	72.9	109
110	Luke Donald	73.1	58
111	Kevin Tway	73.2	WD
112	Chesson Hadley	73.3	53
113	Andrew Novak	73.4	94
114	Guido Migliozzi	73.5	125
115	Jim Herman	73.7	71
116	Paul Barjon	73.9	105
117	Bill Haas	74.1	63
118	Ben Kohles	74.3	125
119	Sung Kang	74.3	118
120	Curtis Thompson	74.3	109
121	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	74.5	DNP
122	Peter Uihlein	74.6	69
123	Stephan Jaeger	74.6	83
124	Henrik Stenson	74.9	18
125	Nick Hardy	75.0	94
126	Bronson Burgoon	75.0	130
127	Michael Gligic	75.0	83
128	Seth Reeves	75.2	83
129	Martin Trainer	75.4	83
130	Austin Cook	75.5	73
131	Ryan Brehm	75.7	83
132	Seung-yul Noh	75.8	63
133	Justin Lower	76.0	137
134	Dawie van der Walt	76.0	73
135	Kelly Kraft	76.8	125
136	David Skinns	77.3	48
137	Scott Gutschewski	77.3	18
138	Jared Wolfe	77.4	29
139	Joshua Creel	77.4	DNP
140	William McGirt	77.6	48
141	Ludvig Aberg	77.6	130
142	Chad Collins	77.8	DNP
143	Jonas Blixt	77.9	94
144	Brett Drewitt	78.0	DNP
145	Ben Kern	78.2	WD
146	Logan McAllister	78.2	73
	Rasmus Hojgaard	late entry	18
	Aaron Baddeley	late entry	23
	Richard Bland	late entry	33
	Ben Martin	late entry	65
	Shawn Stefani	late entry	87
	Jake Kevorkian	late entry	117
	Sam Saunders	late entry	136
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 57. The average is 130. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Mar. 27, 2022)

March 28, 2022 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Although he hasn’t won this season, Jon Rahm remains no. 1 in the Hawley Ratings for the 62nd straight week.

#	Thru Mar. 27, 2022	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Jon Rahm	45	1517	1
2	Justin Thomas	47	1349	2
3	Dustin Johnson	40	1251	8
4	Scottie Scheffler	54	1247	7
5	Patrick Cantlay	39	1245	3
6	Cameron Smith	43	1240	4
7	Viktor Hovland	54	1215	6
8	Xander Schauffele	46	1203	5
9	Rory McIlroy	43	1160	10
10	Daniel Berger	40	1152	9
11	Collin Morikawa	49	1100	11
12	Paul Casey	44	999	12
13	Sam Burns	48	993	14
14	Russell Henley	46	980	13
15	Tyrrell Hatton	47	972	16
16	Will Zalatoris	42	972	20
17	Louis Oosthuizen	40	967	15
18	Matthew Fitzpatrick	49	936	18
19	Corey Conners	53	927	24
20	Joaquin Niemann	52	903	19
21	Brooks Koepka	42	895	28
22	Adam Scott	34	891	26
23	Shane Lowry	51	887	21
24	Hideki Matsuyama	47	887	22
25	Bryson DeChambeau	39	876	17
26	Billy Horschel	51	867	29
27	Webb Simpson	39	865	23
28	Abraham Ancer	54	848	33
29	Cameron Young	21	847	25
30	Alex Noren	49	840	30
31	Seamus Power	36	837	36
32	Sungjae Im	62	829	27
33	Talor Gooch	54	825	32
34	Jordan Spieth	44	818	31
35	Kevin Kisner	49	799	43
36	Max Homa	50	774	35
37	Sergio Garcia	45	750	38
38	Tony Finau	53	739	37
39	Keith Mitchell	51	732	41
40	Brian Harman	52	726	39
41	Cameron Tringale	48	721	40
42	Jason Kokrak	50	717	42
43	Harris English	44	707	44
44	Kevin Na	46	696	53
45	Maverick McNealy	48	689	50
46	Harold Varner	51	687	47
47	Si Woo Kim	56	685	48
48	Patrick Reed	55	683	46
49	Tommy Fleetwood	49	679	45
50	Justin Rose	40	660	51
51	Marc Leishman	48	657	49
52	Keegan Bradley	55	643	34
53	Chris Kirk	45	639	54
54	Adam Hadwin	51	631	55
55	Erik van Rooyen	49	621	52
56	Aaron Wise	43	616	57
57	Sebastian Munoz	59	607	59
58	Kevin Streelman	53	599	58
59	Bubba Watson	41	597	63
60	Matthew Wolff	43	594	56
61	Ian Poulter	51	592	60
62	Mito Pereira	25	591	61
63	Ryan Palmer	46	586	62
64	Gary Woodland	45	580	64
65	Mac Hughes	52	571	68
66	Tom Hoge	62	552	65
67	Jason Day	41	548	66
68	Taylor Pendrith	26	547	67
69	Sepp Straka	59	543	69
70	Patton Kizzire	50	541	70
71	Lanto Griffin	54	538	71
72	Taylor Montgomery	8	520	73
73	Charley Hoffman	47	515	75
74	Brendan Steele	45	513	74
75	Taylor Moore	17	508	76
76	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	49	506	72
77	Sahith Theegala	30	500	77
78	Doug Ghim	45	499	78
79	Lucas Herbert	37	488	84
80	Luke List	54	480	79
81	Jhonattan Vegas	48	475	82
82	Thomas Pieters	37	462	86
83	Denny McCarthy	55	460	81
84	Russell Knox	55	456	83
85	Joel Dahmen	50	449	80
86	Robert MacIntyre	45	448	85
87	CT Pan	49	436	87
88	Lee Westwood	42	432	90
89	Troy Merritt	57	429	89
90	Brendon Todd	53	428	88
91	Stewart Cink	43	425	91
92	Matt Kuchar	45	420	92
93	Francesco Molinari	28	418	93
94	Pat Perez	51	412	94
95	Charles Howell	39	407	95
96	KH Lee	54	397	96
97	Carlos Ortiz	50	394	98
98	Dylan Frittelli	56	393	97
99	Bud Cauley	10	389	100
100	Rickie Fowler	42	384	101
101	Zach Johnson	44	383	102
102	Adam Long	55	382	103
103	Matt Jones	54	382	105
104	Emiliano Grillo	55	381	99
105	Lucas Glover	51	380	104
106	Lee Hodges	25	377	109
107	Cameron Davis	46	376	108
108	Anirban Lahiri	37	375	107
109	Scott Stallings	50	368	110
110	Matthew NeSmith	53	366	111
111	Alex Smalley	22	365	129
112	Robert Streb	48	360	113
113	Andrew Putnam	54	360	115
114	Michael Thompson	47	357	114
115	Adam Svensson	21	355	106
116	Aaron Rai	48	351	112
117	Chez Reavie	53	346	118
118	Martin Laird	37	346	117
119	Steve Stricker	17	344	120
120	Harry Higgs	52	342	119
121	John Huh	34	339	116
122	Rory Sabbatini	48	337	121
123	Matt Wallace	54	337	122
124	Nick Taylor	49	336	123
125	David Lipsky	28	336	137
126	Hayden Buckley	22	335	132
127	Richard Bland	44	335	150
128	Charl Schwartzel	46	333	124
129	Kramer Hickok	44	329	133
130	Davis Riley	26	329	127
131	Branden Grace	51	328	128
132	Padraig Harrington	35	318	131
133	Bernd Wiesberger	45	317	134
134	Beau Hossler	51	312	136
135	Doc Redman	51	310	130
136	Austin Smotherman	16	304	126
137	Takumi Kanaya	29	304	189
138	JJ Spaun	51	301	139
139	Adri Arnaus	45	301	135
140	Oliver Bekker	13	300	125
141	Hudson Swafford	49	299	138
142	Cameron Champ	43	299	140
143	Phil Mickelson	36	297	141
144	Brian Stuard	63	296	148
145	Sam Ryder	57	294	143
146	JT Poston	53	294	142
147	Chad Ramey	20	290	176
148	John Augenstein	12	286	146
149	Adam Schenk	58	286	151
150	Sam Horsfield	36	286	147
151	Matthias Schwab	47	282	145
152	Mark Hubbard	54	282	144
153	Wyndham Clark	51	274	153
154	Henrik Norlander	52	273	149
155	Brandt Snedeker	50	271	152
156	Ryan Armour	47	269	159
157	Nate Lashley	47	269	160
158	Hank Lebioda	44	264	156
159	Peter Malnati	54	264	157
160	Greyson Sigg	28	260	163
161	Roger Sloan	49	260	155
162	Victor Perez	42	258	154
163	Wesley Bryan	22	257	178
164	Danny Willett	51	257	158
165	Danny Lee	47	255	161
166	Richy Werenski	53	255	162
167	Vincent Whaley	49	251	164
168	Thomas Detry	47	250	172
169	Justin Harding	51	249	171
170	Austin Eckroat	11	247	166
171	James Hahn	39	239	170
172	Dean Burmester	48	239	167
173	Scott Piercy	47	237	173
174	Min Woo Lee	38	235	201
175	Hennie du Plessis	12	235	169
176	Trey Mullinax	17	235	165
177	Victor Dubuisson	23	231	181
178	Pablo Larrazabal	41	231	186
179	Justin Suh	16	230	179
180	Andrew Landry	43	229	180
181	Patrick Rodgers	61	229	174
182	Satoshi Kodaira	39	228	182
183	Jordan Smith	49	227	177
184	Max McGreevy	19	227	168
185	Marcus Armitage	50	224	190
186	Julien Brun	11	223	175
187	Rasmus Hojgaard	41	223	207
188	Kyle Stanley	52	221	183
189	Alexander Bjork	38	219	185
190	Thriston Lawrence	15	218	191
191	Adrian Meronk	46	215	203
192	Chase Seiffert	43	214	196
193	Tyler Duncan	55	213	192
194	Brice Garnett	53	210	187
195	Tyler McCumber	43	210	193
196	Laurie Canter	41	210	202
197	Martin Kaymer	34	208	184
198	Sean O’Hair	31	208	188
199	Andrew Johnston	24	207	195
200	Marcel Siem	24	207	197
201	Cameron Percy	41	204	237
202	Guido Migliozzi	43	204	194
203	Rafa Cabrera Bello	53	198	199
204	Nick Watney	46	197	206
205	Bo Hoag	50	197	204
206	Shaun Norris	25	195	209
207	Haotong Li	35	194	198
208	Brandon Hagy	48	194	208
209	Wade Ormsby	34	193	224
210	Antoine Rozner	46	193	205
211	Dylan Wu	19	192	200
212	Jonathan Byrd	28	192	212
213	Tom Lewis	43	191	213
214	Jim Furyk	15	190	219
215	Byeong Hun An	42	190	214
216	Joseph Bramlett	51	189	217
217	Andrew Novak	19	189	257
218	Fabrizio Zanotti	31	189	216
219	Camilo Villegas	43	189	210
220	Scott Jamieson	42	188	218
221	Nicolai Hojgaard	43	186	211
222	Johannes Veerman	41	184	222
223	Vaughn Taylor	45	184	229
224	Jason Scrivener	38	184	223
225	Andy Sullivan	44	184	215
226	Ashun Wu	33	182	220
227	Ryan Fox	36	181	226
228	Kevin Tway	48	180	227
229	Kurt Kitayama	40	179	221
230	Jim Herman	40	176	228
231	Brad Kennedy	10	176	230
232	Joachim B Hansen	48	175	231
233	Kalle Samooja	42	175	251
234	Garrick Higgo	47	175	233
235	Romain Langasque	45	175	240
236	Robert Garrigus	15	173	242
237	Ryan Moore	32	173	235
238	Graeme McDowell	46	172	232
239	Paul Barjon	23	171	225
240	Matthieu Pavon	47	171	241
241	Shubhankar Sharma	51	168	238
242	Chan Kim	23	167	244
243	Mikko Korhonen	34	167	234
244	George Coetzee	36	166	243
245	Sean Crocker	48	166	236
246	Luke Donald	43	165	248
247	Matthew Jordan	46	163	260
248	Ben Martin	32	162	313
249	Kevin Chappell	25	162	286
250	Jeff Winther	39	160	250
251	Hurly Long	20	160	239
252	Chesson Hadley	50	158	247
253	Calum Hill	41	158	246
254	Davis Thompson	11	158	252
255	Robby Shelton	44	155	253
256	Adrian Otaegui	49	155	272
257	Masahiro Kawamura	54	155	249
258	Matthias Schmid	21	154	245
259	Jimmy Walker	45	152	256
260	Brandon Stone	42	151	255
261	David Horsey	45	150	254
262	Keita Nakajima	10	149	258
263	Daniel van Tonder	34	147	262
264	Ben Kohles	17	147	285
265	Henrik Stenson	41	146	264
266	Jamie Donaldson	42	146	263
267	Wilco Nienaber	40	145	284
268	Ryosuke Kinoshita	18	145	268
269	Francesco Laporta	46	145	266
270	Bronson Burgoon	48	144	259
271	Stephan Jaeger	26	143	267
272	Trevor Fisher	8	142	269
273	Callum Shinkwin	40	141	265
274	Joakim Lagergren	40	141	261
275	Lukas Nemecz	11	139	290
276	Jason Dufner	47	139	287
277	Peter Uihlein	32	139	276
278	Sung Kang	57	138	270
279	Shugo Imahira	17	138	274
280	Ewen Ferguson	29	137	323
281	Richie Ramsay	46	136	280
282	Michael Gligic	47	135	282
283	Bo Van Pelt	44	135	273
284	Will Gordon	39	135	277
285	Curtis Thompson	21	135	279
286	Grant Forrest	46	133	275
287	Brandon Wu	24	133	300
288	Nick Hardy	19	132	271
289	Ross Fisher	45	132	281
290	Edoardo Molinari	42	129	291
291	Austin Cook	51	129	283
292	MJ Daffue	16	129	288
293	Rikuya Hoshino	21	128	292
294	Seth Reeves	19	128	278
295	Justin Lower	16	127	354
296	Rob Oppenheim	36	127	294
297	Craig Howie	21	127	327
298	Seonghyeon Kim	8	127	293
299	David Lingmerth	20	124	296
300	Wil Besseling	45	123	303
301	Callum Tarren	18	122	289
302	Connor Syme	46	122	299
303	John Catlin	45	122	295
304	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	40	122	298
305	Marcus Kinhult	36	121	335
306	Jazz Janewattananond	47	120	297
307	Tapio Pulkkanen	47	119	301
308	Thorbjorn Olesen	34	117	330
309	Jacques Kruyswijk	29	115	311
310	Daniel Gavins	28	115	302
311	Joost Luiten	47	115	307
312	Xinjun Zhang	38	114	304
313	Louis de Jager	29	113	317
314	Julien Guerrier	44	113	305
315	Bill Haas	43	112	309
316	Martin Trainer	51	110	352
317	Jacques Blaauw	9	109	314
318	Renato Paratore	47	109	308
319	Ollie Schniederjans	10	109	316
320	James Morrison	48	107	320
321	Dawie van der Walt	19	107	306
322	Matthew Southgate	45	106	315
323	Ockie Strydom	8	106	319
324	Jack Senior	44	106	312
325	Hiroshi Iwata	16	106	321
326	Sami Valimaki	44	104	322
327	Jorge Campillo	51	103	318
328	Richard Sterne	16	103	326
329	Akshay Bhatia	15	103	324
330	Scott Brown	45	102	343
331	Mark Anderson	29	102	329
332	Alexander Levy	44	101	331
333	Kristoffer Ventura	37	101	325
334	Ben Taylor	26	101	332
335	Aaron Cockerill	42	101	342
336	Ryan Brehm	31	100	333
337	Joohyung Kim	12	100	310
338	Justin Walters	49	99	351
339	Seung-yul Noh	26	97	344
340	CJ du Plessis	8	97	336
341	Kristoffer Broberg	31	97	328
342	Maximilian Kieffer	46	96	338
343	Chase Hanna	19	95	445
344	David Law	48	95	340
345	Chris Baker	29	94	341
346	Eddie Pepperell	38	92	337
347	Marc Warren	38	92	339
348	Jim Knous	17	92	334
349	Benjamin Hebert	38	91	346
350	Nino Bertasio	41	91	360
351	Robert Rock	31	91	357
352	Keenan Davidse	8	90	348
353	Chris Stroud	18	90	347
354	Marcus Helligkilde	12	90	433
355	Niklas Norgaard Moller	11	86	345
356	Scott Vincent	31	86	358
357	Tomoharu Otsuki	15	86	356
358	Kelly Kraft	34	86	349
359	Fabian Gomez	36	84	350
360	Michael Gellerman	23	83	363
361	Nacho Elvira	49	83	362
362	Dale Whitnell	47	83	355
363	Niall Kearney	23	83	359
364	Neil Schietekat	11	82	364
365	Bryce Easton	32	82	353
366	Brian Gay	49	82	365
367	Nicolas Colsaerts	31	80	369
368	Darren Fichardt	25	80	367
369	Jayden Trey Schaper	14	80	370
370	Scott Harrington	41	78	372
371	Aaron Baddeley	36	78	366
372	JC Ritchie	21	78	376
373	Rafael Campos	31	78	402
374	Hideto Tanihara	10	78	373
375	Oscar Lengden	12	78	374
376	Berry Henson	15	77	377
377	Niklas Lemke	36	77	368
378	Tommy Gainey	16	77	361
379	Yuki Inamori	17	76	379
380	Josh Teater	26	76	382
381	Jinichiro Kozuma	14	76	380
382	Naoto Nakanishi	14	75	381
383	Sebastian Soderberg	45	74	375
384	Andy Ogletree	11	74	383
385	Rourke van der Spuy	8	73	384
386	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	13	72	371
387	Paul Peterson	16	71	386
388	Paul Waring	30	71	442
389	Mikumu Horikawa	13	71	388
390	Roberto Castro	10	70	390
391	Zander Lombard	46	70	394
392	David Skinns	15	70	378
393	Tim Wilkinson	22	70	391
394	Jaco Ahlers	12	70	392
395	Gavin Green	45	69	444
396	David Hearn	40	69	385
397	Jaco Prinsloo	8	68	393
398	Stephen Gallacher	32	68	395
399	Andrea Pavan	38	68	401
400	Santiago Tarrio Ben	19	67	387
More \| Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Perspectives on the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play

March 21, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

NEW This Month

A significant new feature appears at alookatgolf.com this month, providing a set of analytics-based angles that a person might consider in evaluating a PGA Tour event. The data includes the following:
– “I love this place!” Entrants with the best cumulative performance in the event over the past eight years.
– “Certain skills required”. Statistics related to course physical characteristics that have correlated most closely with success on this course.
– “Location, location, location” and “Anyplace but here”. Entrants best-suited and worst-suited for the course based on the statistics from the above set.
– “Top of the heap” and “Sorry, can’t make it”. The top-ranked entrants and highest-ranked players not in the field.
– “Ooh, that’s hot” and “Brr, that’s cold”. The hottest and coldest entrants, based on their prior four appearances in comparison with their current rating.
– “In the neighborhood”. A list of entrants whose residences are closest to the event venue.

An evaluation of the quality of the data appears at the bottom. It shows the extent to which ordering within the lists correlates with finishes.

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Sergio Garcia	0.844
Kevin Kisner	0.832
Bubba Watson	0.766
Jordan Spieth	0.696
Tommy Fleetwood	0.683
Ian Poulter	0.668
Paul Casey	0.663
Louis Oosthuizen	0.651

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this week’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1484.8
Justin Thomas	2	1380.3
Patrick Cantlay	3	1257.5
Xander Schauffele	5	1227.0
Viktor Hovland	6	1204.2
Scottie Scheffler	7	1181.7
Dustin Johnson	8	1180.2
Daniel Berger	9	1178.5

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this week.

Player	Rank	Rating
Cameron Smith	4	1237.8
Rory McIlroy	10	1157.4
Hideki Matsuyama	22	886.9
Harris English	44	707.8

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Viktor Hovland	2234.4
Sepp Straka	1913.0
Scottie Scheffler	1824.6
Max Homa	1720.7
Tyrrell Hatton	1382.1
Shane Lowry	1362.4
Keith Mitchell	1340.8
Matthew Fitzpatrick	1236.6

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Bryson DeChambeau	-853.0
Webb Simpson	-828.5
Seamus Power	-599.6
Mac Hughes	-518.4
Tony Finau	-493.2
Matthew Wolff	-465.7
Luke List	-459.4
Patrick Reed	-439.7

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this week’s course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.07	Putting
0.06	Sand saves
0.02	Driving distance
0.01	Shots gained in approach

In the neighborhood

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Abraham Ancer	San Antonio TX	75
Patrick Reed	Spring TX	150
Si Woo Kim	Dallas TX	175
Bryson DeChambeau	Dallas TX	175
Jordan Spieth	Dallas TX	175
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas TX	175
Will Zalatoris	Dallas TX	175
Talor Gooch	Midwest City OK	350

Ending with a little more math

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
I love this place	0.117
Top of the heap	0.243
Ooh, that’s hot	0.181
Location, location, location	0.103

World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play

March 21, 2022 Thomas Hawley Uncategorized

Alex Noren

Player	Won	Lost	Tied	Pct.	+/- .500
Alex Noren	19	4	0	0.826	15
Kevin Kisner	16	6	2	0.708	10
Louis Oosthuizen	21	11	2	0.647	10
Ian Poulter	12	6	1	0.658	6
Sergio Garcia	17	11	2	0.600	6
Dustin Johnson	17	11	2	0.600	6
Bubba Watson	15	9	6	0.600	6
Patrick Reed	17	11	4	0.594	6
Billy Horschel	11	6	1	0.639	5
Scottie Scheffler	5	1	2	0.750	4
Patrick Cantlay	7	3	1	0.682	4
Jon Rahm	10	6	3	0.605	4
Brooks Koepka	10	7	2	0.579	3
Paul Casey	13	10	5	0.554	3
Brian Harman	5	3	1	0.611	2
Xander Schauffele	5	3	3	0.591	2
Jordan Spieth	14	12	4	0.533	2
Max Homa	2	1	0	0.667	1
Mac Hughes	2	1	1	0.625	1
Abraham Ancer	4	3	0	0.571	1
Tyrrell Hatton	10	9	2	0.524	1
Tommy Fleetwood	11	10	2	0.522	1
Marc Leishman	10	10	5	0.500	0
Justin Rose	6	6	3	0.500	0
Tony Finau	5	5	2	0.500	0
Sungjae Im	2	2	0	0.500	0
Erik Van Rooyen	2	2	0	0.500	0
Robert MacIntyre	1	1	2	0.500	0
Joaquin Niemann	1	1	2	0.500	0
Matthew Wolff	1	1	1	0.500	0
Will Zalatoris	1	1	1	0.500	0
Sam Burns	0	0	0	0.000	0
Lucas Herbert	0	0	0	0.000	0
Tom Hoge	0	0	0	0.000	0
Takumi Kanaya	0	0	0	0.000	0
Min Woo Lee	0	0	0	0.000	0
Seamus Power	0	0	0	0.000	0
Sepp Straka	0	0	0	0.000	0
Cameron Tringale	0	0	0	0.000	0
Harold Varner	0	0	0	0.000	0
Cameron Young	0	0	0	0.000	0
Kevin Na	9	10	2	0.476	-1
Webb Simpson	8	9	4	0.476	-1
Lee Westwood	9	10	1	0.475	-1
Thomas Pieters	4	5	3	0.458	-1
Viktor Hovland	1	2	1	0.375	-1
Jason Kokrak	1	2	0	0.333	-1
Keith Mitchell	1	2	0	0.333	-1
Justin Thomas	10	12	1	0.457	-2
Bryson DeChambeau	3	5	1	0.389	-2
Russell Henley	3	5	1	0.389	-2
Adam Scott	3	5	1	0.389	-2
Richard Bland	1	3	0	0.250	-2
Collin Morikawa	0	2	2	0.250	-2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	0	2	1	0.167	-2
Talor Gooch	0	2	1	0.167	-2
Corey Conners	0	3	0	0.000	-3
Sebastian Munoz	0	3	0	0.000	-3
Matthew Fitzpatrick	9	13	1	0.413	-4
Daniel Berger	5	9	0	0.357	-4
Si Woo Kim	4	8	2	0.357	-4
Luke List	1	5	0	0.167	-4
Keegan Bradley	0	7	4	0.182	-7
Shane Lowry	4	12	3	0.289	-8
More \| Less

The table above contains each player’s record in match play competition over the last eight years in the following events: EurAsia Cup (2018), Paul Lawrie Matchplay (2015 to 2017), Presidents Cup (2015 to present), Ryder Cup (2014 to present), World Golf Championships Dell Technologies Match Play (2014 to current), and World Match Play Championship (2014). Players are ranked by net wins vs. losses, then winning percentage, then number of wins.

Perspectives on the Corales Puntacana Championship

March 21, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

I love this place!

Player	History
Kelly Kraft	0.355
Joel Dahmen	0.353
Brice Garnett	0.312
David Hearn	0.308
Nate Lashley	0.284
George McNeill	0.274
Graeme McDowell	0.265
Hudson Swafford	0.265

Corales Puntacana Championship

March 21, 2022 Thomas Hawley Picks, U.S. Events

Joel Dahmen

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Joel Dahmen	52.9	WD
2	Maverick McNealy	53.8	DNP
3	Taylor Pendrith	55.3	DNP
4	Graeme McDowell	59.4	50
5	Hudson Swafford	59.9	36
6	Brice Garnett	60.3	58
7	Sahith Theegala	61.3	22
8	Jhonattan Vegas	61.8	4
9	Emiliano Grillo	62.0	75
10	Kelly Kraft	62.4	75
11	Brian Stuard	62.8	7
12	Kramer Hickok	64.2	13
13	Adam Svensson	64.3	100
14	Davis Riley	65.1	DNP
15	Nick Taylor	65.4	25
16	Nate Lashley	65.4	15
17	Matthias Schwab	66.1	44
18	Alex Smalley	66.3	2
19	Doc Redman	66.5	75
20	Austin Smotherman	66.8	107
21	John Huh	66.8	62
22	Mark Hubbard	67.3	66
23	Thomas Detry	68.0	15
24	Rick Lamb	68.1	15
25	Andrew Putnam	68.3	DNP
26	Patrick Rodgers	68.4	94
27	David Lipsky	68.5	7
28	Trey Mullinax	68.5	50
29	Aaron Rai	68.5	75
30	Jonathan Byrd	68.7	36
31	Adam Schenk	69.0	7
32	Hayden Buckley	69.6	13
33	Greyson Sigg	70.1	25
34	Martin Kaymer	70.2	100
35	Vincent Whaley	70.3	28
36	Danny Willett	70.3	36
37	Kurt Kitayama	70.6	66
38	Tyler Duncan	70.7	28
39	Hank Lebioda	70.8	36
40	Chase Seiffert	70.8	22
41	Max McGreevy	70.9	94
42	Sean O’Hair	70.9	50
43	Haotong Li	70.9	111
44	Joseph Bramlett	71.0	DNP
45	Roger Sloan	71.2	75
46	Robert Garrigus	71.2	36
47	Vaughn Taylor	71.3	25
48	Victor Perez	71.4	94
49	Wyndham Clark	71.5	22
50	Rasmus Hojgaard	71.5	6
51	Chad Ramey	71.6	1
52	Kyle Stanley	71.9	75
53	David Hearn	71.9	75
54	Fabrizio Zanotti	72.2	DNP
55	Dylan Wu	72.3	56
56	Cameron Percy	72.3	4
57	George McNeill	72.4	75
58	Nicolai Hojgaard	72.4	66
59	Brandon Hagy	72.4	44
60	Callum Tarren	72.5	94
61	Kevin Tway	72.5	DNP
62	David Lingmerth	72.6	44
63	Peter Uihlein	72.6	36
64	Wesley Bryan	72.8	15
65	Rafa Cabrera Bello	72.9	66
66	Brandon Wu	73.0	28
67	Bo Hoag	73.1	54
68	Stephan Jaeger	73.2	DNP
69	Sung Kang	73.2	94
70	Camilo Villegas	73.4	58
71	Paul Barjon	73.5	66
72	Kevin Chappell	73.9	15
73	Seth Reeves	73.9	62
74	Bill Haas	74.0	44
75	Curtis Thompson	74.0	44
76	Chesson Hadley	74.3	66
77	Bo Van Pelt	74.3	100
78	Andrew Novak	74.4	11
79	Tommy Gainey	74.4	66
80	Ben Martin	74.6	2
81	Nick Hardy	74.6	75
82	Michael Gligic	74.7	36
83	Bronson Burgoon	74.7	75
84	Ben Kohles	74.8	28
85	Aaron Baddeley	74.9	66
86	Austin Cook	75.0	58
87	Fabian Gomez	75.2	100
88	Jason Dufner	75.3	28
89	Scott Brown	75.3	28
90	Chris Stroud	75.5	DNP
91	Dawie van der Walt	75.9	75
92	Ricky Barnes	76.0	112
93	Jim Knous	76.0	58
94	Martin Trainer	76.1	7
95	Seung-yul Noh	76.1	36
96	Rafael Campos	76.4	28
97	Justin Lower	76.4	15
98	DJ Trahan	76.5	50
99	Scott Gutschewski	76.9	57
100	David Skinns	77.0	75
101	Greg Chalmers	77.0	28
102	Jared Wolfe	77.0	91
103	Dominic Bozzelli	77.3	75
104	Joshua Creel	77.4	66
105	Andres Romero	77.5	DNP
106	John Merrick	77.5	104
107	Mike Weir	77.5	DNP
108	Derek Ernst	77.5	91
109	Bryson Nimmer	77.6	11
110	JJ Henry	77.6	91
111	Ted Potter	77.7	112
112	Brett Drewitt	77.7	75
113	Grayson Murray	77.8	104
114	Charlie Beljan	77.8	DNP
115	DA Points	78.0	62
116	Richard S Johnson	78.0	108
117	Kevin Stadler	78.1	65
118	Willy Pumarol	78.1	75
119	Brian Davis	78.1	112
120	Michael Balcar	78.2	94
121	Marcus Byrd	78.2	118
122	Jeronimo Estevez	78.2	108
123	Andrew Filbert	78.2	108
124	Matt Gogel	78.2	116
125	Juan Jose Guerra	78.2	75
126	Ryuji Imada	78.2	DNP
127	Manuel Relancio	78.2	104
128	Hiram Silfa	78.2	112
	Ryan Armour	late entry	17
	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	late entry	44
	Patrick Flavin	late entry	54
	Eric Axley	late entry	117
	Parker McLachlin	late entry	120
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 49. The average is 130. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Mar. 20, 2022)

March 21, 2022 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Although he hasn’t won this season, Jon Rahm remains no. 1 in the Hawley Ratings for the 58th straight week.

#	Thru Mar. 20, 2022	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Jon Rahm	44	1485	1
2	Justin Thomas	46	1380	2
3	Patrick Cantlay	38	1257	3
4	Cameron Smith	43	1238	4
5	Xander Schauffele	45	1227	7
6	Viktor Hovland	53	1204	5
7	Scottie Scheffler	53	1182	8
8	Dustin Johnson	39	1180	6
9	Daniel Berger	39	1179	9
10	Rory McIlroy	43	1157	10
11	Collin Morikawa	48	1060	11
12	Paul Casey	43	1034	12
13	Russell Henley	45	1018	14
14	Sam Burns	48	992	17
15	Louis Oosthuizen	39	981	13
16	Tyrrell Hatton	46	948	15
17	Bryson DeChambeau	38	921	16
18	Matthew Fitzpatrick	48	913	25
19	Joaquin Niemann	51	911	19
20	Will Zalatoris	41	904	20
21	Shane Lowry	50	895	24
22	Hideki Matsuyama	47	887	21
23	Webb Simpson	38	882	18
24	Corey Conners	52	859	23
25	Cameron Young	20	859	22
26	Adam Scott	33	843	26
27	Sungjae Im	61	836	27
28	Brooks Koepka	41	834	33
29	Billy Horschel	50	831	28
30	Alex Noren	48	821	34
31	Jordan Spieth	43	820	31
32	Talor Gooch	53	803	32
33	Abraham Ancer	53	798	29
34	Keegan Bradley	47	793	30
35	Max Homa	49	777	35
36	Seamus Power	35	756	36
37	Tony Finau	52	746	39
38	Sergio Garcia	44	742	40
39	Brian Harman	51	726	46
40	Cameron Tringale	47	726	37
41	Keith Mitchell	50	724	42
42	Jason Kokrak	49	723	38
43	Kevin Kisner	48	722	41
44	Harris English	44	708	43
45	Tommy Fleetwood	48	681	50
46	Patrick Reed	54	675	45
47	Harold Varner	50	663	44
48	Si Woo Kim	55	660	47
49	Marc Leishman	47	657	49
50	Maverick McNealy	47	656	48
51	Justin Rose	39	649	51
52	Erik van Rooyen	48	646	52
53	Kevin Na	45	640	53
54	Chris Kirk	45	636	55
55	Adam Hadwin	51	630	63
56	Matthew Wolff	42	624	56
57	Aaron Wise	43	615	54
58	Kevin Streelman	53	598	70
59	Sebastian Munoz	58	597	58
60	Ian Poulter	50	593	59
61	Mito Pereira	25	589	62
62	Ryan Palmer	46	589	60
63	Bubba Watson	40	582	57
64	Gary Woodland	45	579	67
65	Tom Hoge	61	565	64
66	Jason Day	41	550	61
67	Taylor Pendrith	26	548	69
68	Mac Hughes	51	543	65
69	Sepp Straka	58	542	71
70	Patton Kizzire	50	539	73
71	Lanto Griffin	54	539	66
72	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	48	522	72
73	Taylor Montgomery	8	516	76
74	Brendan Steele	45	514	75
75	Charley Hoffman	47	514	74
76	Taylor Moore	17	507	68
77	Sahith Theegala	29	503	93
78	Doug Ghim	45	499	77
79	Luke List	53	478	78
80	Joel Dahmen	49	467	79
81	Denny McCarthy	55	459	80
82	Jhonattan Vegas	47	457	84
83	Russell Knox	55	456	81
84	Lucas Herbert	36	443	83
85	Robert MacIntyre	44	440	87
86	Thomas Pieters	36	439	86
87	CT Pan	49	434	85
88	Brendon Todd	53	429	82
89	Troy Merritt	57	429	91
90	Lee Westwood	41	426	90
91	Stewart Cink	43	424	114
92	Matt Kuchar	45	419	105
93	Francesco Molinari	28	416	88
94	Pat Perez	51	413	89
95	Charles Howell	39	406	92
96	KH Lee	54	396	98
97	Dylan Frittelli	56	393	100
98	Carlos Ortiz	50	392	94
99	Emiliano Grillo	54	391	95
100	Bud Cauley	10	387	101
101	Rickie Fowler	42	385	102
102	Zach Johnson	44	384	96
103	Adam Long	55	383	97
104	Lucas Glover	51	381	103
105	Matt Jones	54	380	104
106	Adam Svensson	20	379	109
107	Anirban Lahiri	37	377	107
108	Cameron Davis	46	376	106
109	Lee Hodges	25	375	99
110	Scott Stallings	50	369	125
111	Matthew NeSmith	53	365	143
112	Aaron Rai	47	364	113
113	Robert Streb	48	360	140
114	Michael Thompson	47	359	111
115	Andrew Putnam	54	358	110
116	John Huh	33	357	108
117	Martin Laird	37	348	112
118	Chez Reavie	53	347	117
119	Harry Higgs	52	343	119
120	Steve Stricker	17	342	121
121	Rory Sabbatini	48	338	123
122	Matt Wallace	54	337	115
123	Nick Taylor	48	334	118
124	Charl Schwartzel	46	332	120
125	Oliver Bekker	12	331	131
126	Austin Smotherman	15	329	158
127	Davis Riley	26	327	226
128	Branden Grace	51	325	124
129	Alex Smalley	21	325	116
130	Doc Redman	50	323	127
131	Padraig Harrington	35	318	128
132	Hayden Buckley	21	318	122
133	Kramer Hickok	43	317	135
134	Bernd Wiesberger	45	317	133
135	Adri Arnaus	44	311	129
136	Beau Hossler	51	310	130
137	David Lipsky	27	307	126
138	Hudson Swafford	48	303	132
139	JJ Spaun	51	301	146
140	Cameron Champ	43	301	136
141	Phil Mickelson	36	297	139
142	JT Poston	53	295	134
143	Sam Ryder	57	294	137
144	Mark Hubbard	53	292	141
145	Matthias Schwab	46	289	138
146	John Augenstein	12	289	142
147	Sam Horsfield	36	286	145
148	Brian Stuard	62	282	167
149	Henrik Norlander	52	275	144
150	Richard Bland	43	275	151
151	Adam Schenk	57	271	147
152	Brandt Snedeker	50	269	156
153	Wyndham Clark	50	269	148
154	Victor Perez	41	268	157
155	Roger Sloan	48	267	149
156	Hank Lebioda	43	266	150
157	Peter Malnati	54	265	152
158	Danny Willett	50	259	155
159	Ryan Armour	46	259	159
160	Nate Lashley	46	257	175
161	Danny Lee	47	256	160
162	Richy Werenski	53	255	183
163	Greyson Sigg	27	254	162
164	Vincent Whaley	48	250	161
165	Trey Mullinax	16	249	153
166	Austin Eckroat	11	246	168
167	Dean Burmester	47	244	177
168	Max McGreevy	18	243	170
169	Hennie du Plessis	11	242	166
170	James Hahn	39	241	164
171	Justin Harding	50	239	171
172	Thomas Detry	46	238	173
173	Scott Piercy	47	238	169
174	Patrick Rodgers	60	236	174
175	Julien Brun	10	235	154
176	Chad Ramey	19	234	165
177	Jordan Smith	48	234	180
178	Wesley Bryan	21	234	163
179	Justin Suh	16	232	176
180	Andrew Landry	43	231	172
181	Victor Dubuisson	23	231	179
182	Satoshi Kodaira	39	227	182
183	Kyle Stanley	51	227	178
184	Martin Kaymer	33	219	185
185	Alexander Bjork	38	219	186
186	Pablo Larrazabal	40	217	184
187	Brice Garnett	52	215	209
188	Sean O’Hair	30	215	181
189	Takumi Kanaya	28	214	189
190	Marcus Armitage	49	214	187
191	Thriston Lawrence	14	214	207
192	Tyler Duncan	54	212	216
193	Tyler McCumber	43	210	190
194	Guido Migliozzi	42	210	193
195	Andrew Johnston	24	208	192
196	Chase Seiffert	42	207	194
197	Marcel Siem	24	206	197
198	Haotong Li	34	205	195
199	Rafa Cabrera Bello	52	205	196
200	Dylan Wu	18	205	188
201	Min Woo Lee	37	203	198
202	Laurie Canter	40	202	191
203	Adrian Meronk	45	202	199
204	Bo Hoag	49	202	200
205	Antoine Rozner	45	199	201
206	Nick Watney	46	198	202
207	Rasmus Hojgaard	40	196	204
208	Brandon Hagy	47	195	250
209	Shaun Norris	25	194	236
210	Camilo Villegas	42	194	210
211	Nicolai Hojgaard	42	193	208
212	Jonathan Byrd	27	192	206
213	Tom Lewis	43	192	211
214	Byeong Hun An	42	191	212
215	Andy Sullivan	43	190	203
216	Fabrizio Zanotti	31	190	205
217	Joseph Bramlett	51	189	220
218	Scott Jamieson	42	188	218
219	Jim Furyk	15	188	221
220	Ashun Wu	32	188	219
221	Kurt Kitayama	39	186	213
222	Johannes Veerman	41	184	214
223	Jason Scrivener	37	183	215
224	Wade Ormsby	33	181	225
225	Paul Barjon	22	181	217
226	Ryan Fox	36	181	228
227	Kevin Tway	48	180	227
228	Jim Herman	40	177	222
229	Vaughn Taylor	44	176	224
230	Brad Kennedy	10	176	232
231	Joachim B Hansen	48	176	239
232	Graeme McDowell	45	176	223
233	Garrick Higgo	47	175	234
234	Mikko Korhonen	33	174	246
235	Ryan Moore	32	173	235
236	Sean Crocker	47	172	230
237	Cameron Percy	40	172	229
238	Shubhankar Sharma	50	172	231
239	Hurly Long	19	172	240
240	Romain Langasque	44	171	247
241	Matthieu Pavon	46	170	233
242	Robert Garrigus	14	170	238
243	George Coetzee	35	168	242
244	Chan Kim	23	166	241
245	Matthias Schmid	20	165	273
246	Calum Hill	40	165	244
247	Chesson Hadley	49	164	237
248	Luke Donald	43	164	311
249	Masahiro Kawamura	53	160	249
250	Jeff Winther	39	160	248
251	Kalle Samooja	41	160	243
252	Davis Thompson	11	158	253
253	Robby Shelton	44	157	252
254	David Horsey	44	157	254
255	Brandon Stone	41	154	251
256	Jimmy Walker	45	152	255
257	Andrew Novak	18	152	245
258	Keita Nakajima	10	150	259
259	Bronson Burgoon	47	150	256
260	Matthew Jordan	45	149	262
261	Joakim Lagergren	39	147	264
262	Daniel van Tonder	34	147	274
263	Jamie Donaldson	42	147	260
264	Henrik Stenson	41	147	261
265	Callum Shinkwin	39	147	265
266	Francesco Laporta	46	145	258
267	Stephan Jaeger	26	144	257
268	Ryosuke Kinoshita	18	144	268
269	Trevor Fisher	8	144
270	Sung Kang	56	142	266
271	Nick Hardy	18	142	270
272	Adrian Otaegui	48	141	271
273	Bo Van Pelt	43	139	278
274	Shugo Imahira	17	138	277
275	Grant Forrest	45	137	269
276	Peter Uihlein	31	137	280
277	Will Gordon	39	137	279
278	Seth Reeves	18	137	263
279	Curtis Thompson	20	136	300
280	Richie Ramsay	46	136	283
281	Ross Fisher	44	135	276
282	Michael Gligic	46	135	281
283	Austin Cook	50	134	275
284	Wilco Nienaber	39	134	294
285	Ben Kohles	16	134	286
286	Kevin Chappell	24	133	287
287	Jason Dufner	46	133	285
288	MJ Daffue	16	132	284
289	Callum Tarren	17	131	272
290	Lukas Nemecz	10	131	267
291	Edoardo Molinari	41	131	282
292	Rikuya Hoshino	21	128	291
293	Seonghyeon Kim	8	128	288
294	Rob Oppenheim	36	127	289
295	John Catlin	44	127	290
296	David Lingmerth	19	124	292
297	Jazz Janewattananond	46	124	299
298	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	39	123	306
299	Connor Syme	46	122	298
300	Brandon Wu	23	121	349
301	Tapio Pulkkanen	46	121	316
302	Daniel Gavins	27	121	293
303	Wil Besseling	44	118	297
304	Xinjun Zhang	38	117	296
305	Julien Guerrier	43	117	295
306	Dawie van der Walt	18	115	301
307	Joost Luiten	47	115	321
308	Renato Paratore	46	114	302
309	Bill Haas	42	113	314
310	Joohyung Kim	11	113	305
311	Jacques Kruyswijk	28	110	338
312	Jack Senior	43	110	308
313	Ben Martin	31	110	312
314	Jacques Blaauw	9	110	304
315	Matthew Southgate	44	110	309
316	Ollie Schniederjans	10	110	313
317	Louis de Jager	28	109	303
318	Jorge Campillo	50	107	323
319	Ockie Strydom	8	107
320	James Morrison	48	107	310
321	Hiroshi Iwata	16	106	319
322	Sami Valimaki	43	104	334
323	Ewen Ferguson	28	104	317
324	Akshay Bhatia	15	104	322
325	Kristoffer Ventura	37	104	318
326	Richard Sterne	16	103	307
327	Craig Howie	20	103	324
328	Kristoffer Broberg	30	102	315
329	Mark Anderson	29	102	327
330	Thorbjorn Olesen	33	102	325
331	Alexander Levy	44	101	326
332	Ben Taylor	26	100	328
333	Ryan Brehm	31	100	320
334	Jim Knous	16	99	330
335	Marcus Kinhult	35	99	331
336	CJ du Plessis	8	98
337	Eddie Pepperell	37	97	332
338	Maximilian Kieffer	45	97	329
339	Marc Warren	37	97	335
340	David Law	48	94	333
341	Chris Baker	29	94	337
342	Aaron Cockerill	41	94	339
343	Scott Brown	44	94	342
344	Seung-yul Noh	25	93	378
345	Niklas Norgaard Moller	10	92	388
346	Benjamin Hebert	38	92	344
347	Chris Stroud	18	91	343
348	Keenan Davidse	8	91
349	Kelly Kraft	33	90	336
350	Fabian Gomez	35	89	348
351	Justin Walters	48	88	346
352	Martin Trainer	50	87	347
353	Bryce Easton	31	86	345
354	Justin Lower	15	86	352
355	Dale Whitnell	46	86	376
356	Tomoharu Otsuki	15	86	353
357	Robert Rock	30	86	351
358	Scott Vincent	31	85	356
359	Niall Kearney	22	85	357
360	Nino Bertasio	40	84	365
361	Tommy Gainey	15	84	340
362	Nacho Elvira	48	83	358
363	Michael Gellerman	23	83	361
364	Neil Schietekat	11	83	341
365	Brian Gay	49	82	355
366	Aaron Baddeley	35	82	362
367	Darren Fichardt	24	81	354
368	Niklas Lemke	35	80	364
369	Nicolas Colsaerts	31	80	363
370	Jayden Trey Schaper	14	80	350
371	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	12	79	359
372	Scott Harrington	41	79	366
373	Hideto Tanihara	10	78	367
374	Oscar Lengden	12	78	368
375	Sebastian Soderberg	44	78	391
376	JC Ritchie	21	78	360
377	Berry Henson	15	77	369
378	David Skinns	14	77	370
379	Yuki Inamori	17	76	373
380	Jinichiro Kozuma	14	76	374
381	Naoto Nakanishi	14	76	375
382	Josh Teater	26	75	377
383	Andy Ogletree	11	73	380
384	Rourke van der Spuy	8	73
385	David Hearn	39	73	379
386	Paul Peterson	16	72	381
387	Santiago Tarrio Ben	18	71	371
388	Mikumu Horikawa	13	71	384
389	Joshua Creel	14	71	382
390	Roberto Castro	10	71	386
391	Tim Wilkinson	22	70	385
392	Jaco Ahlers	12	69	455
393	Jaco Prinsloo	8	69
394	Zander Lombard	45	69	387
395	Stephen Gallacher	32	68	383
396	Frederic LaCroix	10	67	372
397	Miguel Angel Jimenez	14	66	390
398	Ben Stow	15	66	392
399	Sihwan Kim	34	66	394
400	Scott Gutschewski	16	65	393
More \| Less

Perspectives on the Valspar Championship

March 15, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

NEW This Month

An evaluation of the quality of the data appears at the bottom. It shows the extent to which ordering within the lists correlates with finishes.

I love this place!

Player	History
Louis Oosthuizen	0.763
Jason Kokrak	0.734
Paul Casey	0.658
Sam Burns	0.621
Russell Knox	0.565
Charl Schwartzel	0.504
Charley Hoffman	0.500
Bubba Watson	0.498

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this week’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Justin Thomas	2	1332.9
Viktor Hovland	5	1222.4
Dustin Johnson	6	1217.3
Xander Schauffele	7	1205.1
Collin Morikawa	11	1097.5
Paul Casey	12	1026.2
Louis Oosthuizen	13	1021.4
Tyrrell Hatton	15	939.6

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this week.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1482.4
Patrick Cantlay	3	1259.2
Cameron Smith	4	1233.8
Scottie Scheffler	8	1179.9

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Viktor Hovland	2140.0
Tyrrell Hatton	1551.6
Keegan Bradley	1214.0
Alex Noren	1190.2
Matthew Fitzpatrick	1082.9
Shane Lowry	984.5
Patton Kizzire	940.4
Adam Hadwin	823.2

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Webb Simpson	-643.4
Charley Hoffman	-532.6
Cameron Tringale	-434.9
Brian Harman	-417.9
Matt Kuchar	-376.8
Michael Thompson	-356.6
Matt Wallace	-347.7
Charl Schwartzel	-342.5

Certain skills required

Stat value	Statistic
0.16	Driving accuracy
0.14	Shots gained around the green
0.12	Shots gained off the tee
0.12	Shots gained in approach

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Collin Morikawa	71.40
Chez Reavie	71.68
Hayden Buckley	71.69
Keegan Bradley	71.70
Abraham Ancer	71.70
Viktor Hovland	71.70
Bernd Wiesberger	71.71
Matthew Fitzpatrick	71.72

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Seung-yul Noh	73.6
Martin Trainer	73.4
Jonas Blixt	73.2
Jimmy Walker	73.2
David Skinns	73.1
Brian Gay	73.0
Sung Kang	73.0
Ryan Brehm	73.0

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Emiliano Grillo	Bradenton FL	44
Brian Gay	Windermere FL	75
Henrik Stenson	Orlando FL	100
Hank Lebioda	Orlando FL	100
Graeme McDowell	Orlando FL	100
Hayden Buckley	Naples FL	150
Russell Knox	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	150
Tyler Duncan	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	150
Lanto Griffin	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	150

Ending with a little more math

Statistic	Correlation to results
I love this place	0.146
Top of the heap	0.203
Ooh, that’s hot	0.140
Location, location, location	0.178

Valspar Championship

March 14, 2022 Thomas Hawley Picks, U.S. Events

Viktor Hovland

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Viktor Hovland	16.0	33
2	Paul Casey	19.6	DNP
3	Justin Thomas	23.9	3
4	Tyrrell Hatton	31.6	21
5	Xander Schauffele	31.7	12
6	Dustin Johnson	33.0	39
7	Keegan Bradley	37.4	73
8	Matthew Fitzpatrick	38.6	5
9	Shane Lowry	39.4	12
10	Louis Oosthuizen	39.5	62
11	Alex Noren	40.5	12
12	Sam Burns	40.6	1
13	Collin Morikawa	40.7	68
14	Jason Kokrak	47.0	121
15	Abraham Ancer	47.5	94
16	Adam Hadwin	48.4	7
17	Brooks Koepka	48.9	12
18	Tommy Fleetwood	49.7	16
19	Harold Varner	49.9	57
20	Webb Simpson	49.9	48
21	Kevin Kisner	51.3	33
22	Sebastian Munoz	51.3	DNP
23	Patton Kizzire	51.5	33
24	Gary Woodland	52.2	21
25	Bubba Watson	53.6	73
26	Russell Knox	54.0	57
27	Cameron Tringale	54.0	62
28	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	54.8	62
29	Kevin Streelman	55.3	7
30	Jason Day	56.3	94
31	Aaron Wise	57.6	83
32	Brian Harman	57.8	5
33	Mito Pereira	58.1	27
34	CT Pan	58.7	48
35	Lanto Griffin	59.4	138
36	Joel Dahmen	59.4	39
37	Doug Ghim	59.6	DNP
38	Taylor Moore	60.1	121
39	Nick Taylor	60.6	70
40	Mac Hughes	61.1	83
41	Pat Perez	62.1	70
42	Charley Hoffman	62.5	140
43	Sahith Theegala	63.4	7
44	Lee Hodges	63.7	102
45	Jhonattan Vegas	63.7	27
46	Sam Ryder	63.9	83
47	Martin Laird	64.0	94
48	Denny McCarthy	64.0	48
49	Brendon Todd	64.3	102
50	Francesco Molinari	64.4	141
51	Troy Merritt	64.6	27
52	Zach Johnson	64.8	94
53	Carlos Ortiz	64.9	83
54	Scott Stallings	64.9	16
55	Adam Long	65.2	73
56	David Lipsky	65.5	68
57	Emiliano Grillo	65.6	111
58	Matthias Schwab	65.8	102
59	Adam Svensson	65.8	39
60	John Huh	65.8	66
61	Chez Reavie	65.9	39
62	Doc Redman	66.2	39
63	Charl Schwartzel	66.9	121
64	Bernd Wiesberger	66.9	33
65	Kevin Yu	67.3	94
66	Austin Smotherman	67.4	25
67	Matt Kuchar	67.5	16
68	JT Poston	67.9	83
69	Stewart Cink	68.1	7
70	Branden Grace	68.1	111
71	Alex Smalley	68.1	102
72	Trey Mullinax	68.1	136
73	Brian Stuard	68.2	16
74	Andrew Putnam	68.2	136
75	Michael Thompson	68.3	57
76	Peter Malnati	68.3	127
77	Sean O’Hair	68.5	73
78	Harry Higgs	68.6	39
79	Danny Lee	68.6	48
80	Kramer Hickok	68.8	33
81	Vaughn Taylor	68.9	111
82	Matt Wallace	69.0	73
83	Hayden Buckley	69.0	111
84	Matthew NeSmith	69.2	3
85	JJ Spaun	69.4	27
86	Greyson Sigg	69.5	48
87	Graeme McDowell	69.6	111
88	Chad Ramey	69.7	133
89	Nate Lashley	69.8	27
90	Danny Willett	70.1	73
91	Kurt Kitayama	70.3	127
92	Adam Schenk	70.4	130
93	Martin Kaymer	70.6	48
94	Robert Streb	70.6	7
95	Henrik Norlander	70.7	73
96	Wesley Bryan	70.7	62
97	Hank Lebioda	70.7	94
98	Roger Sloan	70.9	73
99	Wyndham Clark	71.1	121
100	Brice Garnett	71.1	27
101	Max McGreevy	71.2	48
102	Kyle Stanley	71.4	83
103	James Hahn	71.6	83
104	Vincent Whaley	71.6	102
105	Scott Piercy	71.9	73
106	Dylan Wu	71.9	83
107	Sung Kang	72.0	141
108	Andrew Landry	72.1	94
109	Callum Tarren	72.2	94
110	Richy Werenski	72.4	21
111	Henrik Stenson	72.5	57
112	Jim Herman	72.6	111
113	Tyler Duncan	72.8	25
114	Joseph Bramlett	72.9	48
115	Davis Riley	72.9	2
116	Cameron Percy	73.1	130
117	Jimmy Walker	73.1	83
118	Bill Haas	73.3	48
119	Paul Barjon	73.6	57
120	Stephan Jaeger	73.9	111
121	Seth Reeves	73.9	111
122	Andrew Novak	74.0	102
123	Chesson Hadley	74.1	127
124	Austin Cook	74.2	133
125	Bronson Burgoon	74.4	138
126	Brandon Hagy	74.5	21
127	Luke Donald	74.5	16
128	Tommy Gainey	74.5	133
129	Peter Uihlein	74.6	DNP
130	Ben Kohles	74.7	DNP
131	Nick Hardy	74.7	DNP
132	Michael Gligic	75.1	DNP
133	Curtis Thompson	75.2	39
134	Kelly Kraft	75.3	83
135	Ryan Brehm	75.3	66
136	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	75.6	39
137	Dawie van der Walt	75.7	DNP
138	Martin Trainer	75.8	130
139	Brandon Wu	75.9	33
140	Brian Gay	76.4	102
141	Justin Lower	76.5	DNP
142	William McGirt	76.8	83
143	Seung-yul Noh	76.9	39
144	David Skinns	77.0	DNP
145	Jonas Blixt	77.1	144
146	Mark Hensby	77.5	111
147	Luke Guthrie	77.8	73
148	Davis Love	78.0	121
149	Alex Fitzpatrick	78.1	102
150	Blake Kennedy	78.2	72
151	Greg Koch	78.2	121
152	Andrew McCain	78.2	102
153	Jackson Suber	78.2	111
154	Omar Uresti	78.2	143
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 126. The average is 131. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Steyn City Championship

March 14, 2022 Thomas Hawley Euro Events, Picks

Adri Arnaus

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Adri Arnaus	63.2	DNP
2	Oliver Bekker	64.7	3
3	Pablo Larrazabal	65.5	101
4	Jordan Smith	65.5	16
5	Hennie du Plessis	67.2	25
6	Julien Brun	67.2	101
7	Justin Harding	67.8	75
8	Marcus Armitage	68.5	40
9	Thriston Lawrence	69.0	8
10	Matthieu Pavon	69.3	48
11	Hurly Long	69.6	21
12	Shubhankar Sharma	69.7	75
13	Dean Burmester	69.9	2
14	George Coetzee	70.0	25
15	Laurie Canter	70.0	57
16	Ross Fisher	70.1	75
17	Johannes Veerman	70.3	116
18	Fabrizio Zanotti	70.3	48
19	Brandon Stone	70.5	101
20	Ashun Wu	70.7	25
21	Romain Langasque	70.7	8
22	Julien Guerrier	70.9	75
23	Trevor Fisher	71.1	WD
24	Antoine Rozner	71.1	25
25	Masahiro Kawamura	71.5	DNP
26	Jason Scrivener	71.7	64
27	Andy Sullivan	71.9	72
28	Kalle Samooja	71.9	60
29	Lukas Nemecz	72.1	48
30	Francesco Laporta	72.1	75
31	Daniel van Tonder	72.3	16
32	Mikko Korhonen	72.5	10
33	Connor Syme	72.5	21
34	Sean Crocker	72.6	128
35	Louis de Jager	72.7	75
36	Edoardo Molinari	72.7	71
37	Joachim B Hansen	72.8	5
38	Grant Forrest	73.0	101
39	Jazz Janewattananond	73.1	16
40	Daniel Gavins	73.3	40
41	Tapio Pulkkanen	73.3	5
42	David Law	73.4	75
43	Jamie Donaldson	73.5	40
44	Matthias Schmid	73.5	3
45	Richard Sterne	73.5	60
46	Wilco Nienaber	73.6	10
47	Richie Ramsay	73.6	DNP
48	Ewen Ferguson	73.6	40
49	Jorge Campillo	73.7	25
50	Nacho Elvira	73.8	48
51	Jacques Blaauw	73.8	37
52	Craig Howie	73.9	37
53	JC Ritchie	74.2	116
54	Keenan Davidse	74.2	48
55	Maximilian Kieffer	74.3	75
56	Joost Luiten	74.3	10
57	Ockie Strydom	74.4	25
58	Neil Schietekat	74.4	95
59	Kristoffer Broberg	74.5	64
60	Bryce Easton	74.5	128
61	Renato Paratore	74.5	DNP
62	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	74.6	48
63	James Morrison	74.7	116
64	Justin Walters	74.7	73
65	Yannik Paul	74.8	37
66	Jaco Prinsloo	74.9	48
67	Jacques Kruyswijk	75.0	10
68	Sami Valimaki	75.1	16
69	Santiago Tarrio Ben	75.1	101
70	Zander Lombard	75.2	75
71	Andrea Pavan	75.2	40
72	Niklas Norgaard Moller	75.3	21
73	Frederic LaCroix	75.3	141
74	Darren Fichardt	75.3	146
75	Sebastian Soderberg	75.3	10
76	Nino Bertasio	75.4	25
77	Martin Rohwer	75.6	101
78	Steven Brown	75.7	75
79	Rourke van der Spuy	75.8	33
80	Jbe Kruger	75.8	75
81	Dale Whitnell	75.8	10
82	Espen Kofstad	75.8	40
83	Maverick Antcliff	75.9	64
84	Sebastian Heisele	75.9	DNP
85	Stephen Gallacher	75.9	111
86	Ashley Chesters	75.9	141
87	Deon Germishuys	76.0	111
88	Chris Paisley	76.1	75
89	Marcus Helligkilde	76.1	60
90	Darius van Driel	76.1	64
91	Alejandro Canizares	76.2	60
92	Jaco van Zyl	76.2	95
93	Hugo Leon	76.2	57
94	Lucas Bjerregaard	76.3	116
95	Jaco Ahlers	76.3	16
96	Alex Haindl	76.3	WD
97	Chase Hanna	76.4	128
98	Scott Hend	76.5	75
99	Steven Ferreira	76.6	75
100	Keith Horne	76.7	141
101	Dylan Naidoo	76.7	68
102	David Drysdale	76.8	WD
103	MJ Viljoen	76.8	73
104	Steve Surry	76.8	151
105	Jean Hugo	76.8	75
106	Jonathan Caldwell	76.8	148
107	Andrew Wilson	76.8	111
108	Marcel Schneider	76.9	128
109	Rhys Enoch	76.9	48
110	Jack Singh Brar	76.9	116
111	Chris Wood	77.0	111
112	Christiaan Basson	77.1	116
113	Daan Huizing	77.2	141
114	Rikard Karlberg	77.3	128
115	Luke Brown	77.3	75
116	Ulrich van den Berg	77.4	101
117	Callum Mowat	77.4	146
118	Ruan Conradie	77.4	101
119	Anton Karlsson	77.6	101
120	Philip Eriksson	77.6	101
121	JJ Senekal	77.7	75
122	Estiaan Conradie	77.7	33
123	James Du Preez	77.7	5
124	Benjamin Follet-Smith	77.8	150
125	Anthony Michael	77.8	116
126	Lyle Rowe	77.9	128
127	James Kingston	77.9	DNP
128	Toto Thimba	77.9	116
129	Haydn Porteous	77.9	40
130	Michael G Palmer	78.0	33
131	Jake Roos	78.0	75
132	Ruan de Smidt	78.0	68
133	Hennie Otto	78.0	DQ
134	Daniel Greene	78.1	116
135	Louis Albertse	78.1	128
136	Luke Jerling	78.1	128
137	Adilson da Silva	78.1	68
	Shaun Norris	late entry	1
	Ross McGowan	late entry	22
	Pieter Moolman	late entry	29
	Oliver Wilson	late entry	36
	Combrinck Smit	late entry	47
	Jake Redman	late entry	55
	CJ du Plessis	late entry	58
	Merrick Bremner	late entry	75
	Hennie O’Kennedy	late entry	90
	Malcolm Mitchell	late entry	95
	Jayden Trey Schaper	late entry	96
	Divan van den Heever	late entry	98
	Stefan Wears-taylor	late entry	100
	Tristen Strydom	late entry	113
	Heinrich Bruiners	late entry	118
	Siyanda Mwandla	late entry	122
	Adriel Poonan	late entry	123
	Byron Coetzee	late entry	129
	Tyler Koivisto	late entry	135
	Thanda Mavundla	late entry	136
	Dylan Mostert	late entry	137
	Nikhil Rama	late entry	138
	Robin Roussel	late entry	145
	Matthew Spacey	late entry	149
	Peter Karmis	late entry	152
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 88. The average is 131. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Mar. 14, 2022)

March 14, 2022 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Although he hasn’t won this season, Jon Rahm remains no. 1 in the Hawley Ratings for the 58th straight week.

#	Thru Mar. 14, 2022	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Jon Rahm	44	1482	1
2	Justin Thomas	45	1333	2
3	Patrick Cantlay	38	1259	3
4	Cameron Smith	43	1234	11
5	Viktor Hovland	52	1222	8
6	Dustin Johnson	38	1217	9
7	Xander Schauffele	44	1205	4
8	Scottie Scheffler	53	1180	5
9	Daniel Berger	39	1179	10
10	Rory McIlroy	43	1158	6
11	Collin Morikawa	47	1098	7
12	Paul Casey	43	1026	25
13	Louis Oosthuizen	38	1021	12
14	Russell Henley	45	1018	15
15	Tyrrell Hatton	45	940	27
16	Bryson DeChambeau	38	927	14
17	Sam Burns	47	924	17
18	Webb Simpson	37	919	13
19	Joaquin Niemann	51	910	22
20	Will Zalatoris	41	902	21
21	Hideki Matsuyama	47	884	19
22	Cameron Young	20	858	16
23	Corey Conners	52	857	29
24	Shane Lowry	49	856	35
25	Matthew Fitzpatrick	47	854	20
26	Adam Scott	33	846	18
27	Sungjae Im	61	836	24
28	Billy Horschel	50	830	23
29	Abraham Ancer	52	823	31
30	Keegan Bradley	46	818	48
31	Jordan Spieth	43	816	26
32	Talor Gooch	53	803	28
33	Brooks Koepka	40	789	30
34	Alex Noren	47	784	36
35	Max Homa	49	773	44
36	Seamus Power	35	756	37
37	Cameron Tringale	46	750	32
38	Jason Kokrak	48	750	34
39	Tony Finau	52	749	33
40	Sergio Garcia	44	741	39
41	Kevin Kisner	47	724	64
42	Keith Mitchell	50	720	53
43	Harris English	44	709	38
44	Harold Varner	49	684	69
45	Patrick Reed	54	674	52
46	Brian Harman	50	663	41
47	Si Woo Kim	55	661	40
48	Maverick McNealy	47	656	46
49	Marc Leishman	47	654	43
50	Tommy Fleetwood	47	651	58
51	Justin Rose	39	650	42
52	Erik van Rooyen	48	646	67
53	Kevin Na	45	641	50
54	Aaron Wise	42	641	49
55	Chris Kirk	45	633	47
56	Matthew Wolff	42	630	45
57	Bubba Watson	39	609	51
58	Sebastian Munoz	58	598	60
59	Ian Poulter	50	594	63
60	Ryan Palmer	46	589	54
61	Jason Day	40	573	56
62	Mito Pereira	24	572	55
63	Adam Hadwin	50	572	82
64	Tom Hoge	61	566	66
65	Mac Hughes	50	566	59
66	Lanto Griffin	53	558	62
67	Gary Woodland	44	556	61
68	Taylor Moore	16	549	57
69	Taylor Pendrith	26	544	108
70	Kevin Streelman	52	542	72
71	Sepp Straka	58	540	84
72	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	47	539	68
73	Patton Kizzire	49	533	74
74	Charley Hoffman	46	533	65
75	Brendan Steele	45	514	94
76	Taylor Montgomery	8	506	70
77	Doug Ghim	45	496	122
78	Luke List	53	478	71
79	Joel Dahmen	48	471	80
80	Denny McCarthy	54	469	73
81	Russell Knox	54	465	123
82	Brendon Todd	52	445	75
83	Lucas Herbert	36	443	76
84	Jhonattan Vegas	46	443	77
85	CT Pan	48	442	79
86	Thomas Pieters	36	440	78
87	Robert MacIntyre	44	438	83
88	Francesco Molinari	27	437	86
89	Pat Perez	50	426	95
90	Lee Westwood	41	426	81
91	Troy Merritt	56	415	91
92	Charles Howell	39	406	92
93	Sahith Theegala	28	406	85
94	Carlos Ortiz	49	404	88
95	Emiliano Grillo	53	403	90
96	Zach Johnson	43	402	87
97	Adam Long	54	396	98
98	KH Lee	54	396	93
99	Lee Hodges	24	395	89
100	Dylan Frittelli	56	394	96
101	Bud Cauley	10	385	103
102	Rickie Fowler	42	385	102
103	Lucas Glover	51	380	97
104	Matt Jones	54	380	101
105	Matt Kuchar	44	377	99
106	Cameron Davis	46	376	100
107	Anirban Lahiri	37	375	263
108	John Huh	32	374	107
109	Adam Svensson	19	371	109
110	Andrew Putnam	53	368	106
111	Michael Thompson	46	368	105
112	Martin Laird	36	365	104
113	Aaron Rai	47	363	111
114	Stewart Cink	42	351	110
115	Matt Wallace	53	348	113
116	Alex Smalley	20	347	117
117	Chez Reavie	52	347	114
118	Nick Taylor	47	345	118
119	Harry Higgs	51	343	115
120	Charl Schwartzel	45	342	116
121	Steve Stricker	17	341	120
122	Hayden Buckley	20	339	112
123	Rory Sabbatini	48	339	119
124	Branden Grace	50	335	121
125	Scott Stallings	49	331	124
126	David Lipsky	26	323	125
127	Doc Redman	49	321	152
128	Padraig Harrington	35	318	128
129	Adri Arnaus	44	311	138
130	Beau Hossler	51	310	126
131	Oliver Bekker	11	310	142
132	Hudson Swafford	48	306	129
133	Bernd Wiesberger	44	305	130
134	JT Poston	52	305	131
135	Kramer Hickok	42	305	144
136	Cameron Champ	43	303	127
137	Sam Ryder	56	302	132
138	Matthias Schwab	45	299	134
139	Phil Mickelson	36	297	137
140	Robert Streb	47	295	133
141	Mark Hubbard	53	293	139
142	John Augenstein	12	291	141
143	Matthew NeSmith	52	289	135
144	Henrik Norlander	51	286	136
145	Sam Horsfield	36	285	147
146	JJ Spaun	50	284	140
147	Adam Schenk	56	280	143
148	Wyndham Clark	49	278	146
149	Roger Sloan	47	277	145
150	Hank Lebioda	42	275	148
151	Richard Bland	43	274	149
152	Peter Malnati	53	274	154
153	Trey Mullinax	15	269	151
154	Julien Brun	9	268	170
155	Danny Willett	49	268	153
156	Brandt Snedeker	50	268	150
157	Victor Perez	41	267	155
158	Austin Smotherman	14	266	156
159	Ryan Armour	46	259	158
160	Danny Lee	46	259	159
161	Vincent Whaley	47	258	160
162	Greyson Sigg	26	256	162
163	Wesley Bryan	20	254	163
164	James Hahn	38	253	157
165	Chad Ramey	18	252	165
166	Hennie du Plessis	10	250	206
167	Brian Stuard	61	248	164
168	Austin Eckroat	11	247	166
169	Scott Piercy	46	246	161
170	Max McGreevy	17	246	167
171	Justin Harding	49	245	171
172	Andrew Landry	42	242	172
173	Thomas Detry	46	238	169
174	Patrick Rodgers	60	237	168
175	Nate Lashley	45	235	175
176	Justin Suh	16	234	174
177	Dean Burmester	46	233	178
178	Kyle Stanley	50	233	173
179	Victor Dubuisson	23	232	177
180	Jordan Smith	47	232	185
181	Sean O’Hair	29	226	180
182	Satoshi Kodaira	39	226	179
183	Richy Werenski	52	226	176
184	Pablo Larrazabal	39	226	197
185	Martin Kaymer	32	220	182
186	Alexander Bjork	38	220	181
187	Marcus Armitage	48	218	187
188	Dylan Wu	17	218	183
189	Takumi Kanaya	28	216	184
190	Tyler McCumber	43	211	186
191	Laurie Canter	39	211	189
192	Andrew Johnston	24	208	188
193	Guido Migliozzi	42	208	192
194	Chase Seiffert	42	207	191
195	Haotong Li	34	206	190
196	Rafa Cabrera Bello	52	206	195
197	Marcel Siem	24	205	196
198	Min Woo Lee	37	202	198
199	Adrian Meronk	45	201	199
200	Bo Hoag	49	200	202
201	Antoine Rozner	44	199	203
202	Nick Watney	46	199	193
203	Andy Sullivan	42	198	194
204	Rasmus Hojgaard	40	197	205
205	Fabrizio Zanotti	30	197	200
206	Jonathan Byrd	27	194	208
207	Thriston Lawrence	13	194	250
208	Nicolai Hojgaard	42	194	207
209	Brice Garnett	51	194	215
210	Camilo Villegas	42	193	212
211	Tom Lewis	43	193	210
212	Byeong Hun An	42	193	209
213	Kurt Kitayama	38	192	213
214	Johannes Veerman	40	192	201
215	Jason Scrivener	36	190	204
216	Tyler Duncan	53	190	214
217	Paul Barjon	21	189	216
218	Scott Jamieson	42	188	223
219	Ashun Wu	31	188	221
220	Joseph Bramlett	50	188	211
221	Jim Furyk	15	186	220
222	Jim Herman	39	185	219
223	Graeme McDowell	44	183	222
224	Vaughn Taylor	43	182	225
225	Wade Ormsby	33	181	229
226	Davis Riley	25	181	224
227	Kevin Tway	48	180	218
228	Ryan Fox	36	180	227
229	Cameron Percy	39	180	230
230	Sean Crocker	46	179	217
231	Shubhankar Sharma	49	179	231
232	Brad Kennedy	10	178	232
233	Matthieu Pavon	45	175	241
234	Garrick Higgo	47	174	226
235	Ryan Moore	32	173	236
236	Shaun Norris	24	171	233
237	Chesson Hadley	48	170	234
238	Robert Garrigus	14	170	239
239	Joachim B Hansen	47	167	235
240	Hurly Long	18	166	228
241	Chan Kim	23	166	242
242	George Coetzee	34	166	270
243	Kalle Samooja	40	165	237
244	Calum Hill	40	165	243
245	Andrew Novak	17	164	245
246	Mikko Korhonen	32	164	238
247	Romain Langasque	43	161	264
248	Jeff Winther	39	160	249
249	Masahiro Kawamura	53	160	247
250	Brandon Hagy	46	160	244
251	Brandon Stone	40	160	257
252	Robby Shelton	44	159	248
253	Davis Thompson	11	158	252
254	David Horsey	44	158	251
255	Jimmy Walker	44	157	256
256	Bronson Burgoon	46	155	255
257	Stephan Jaeger	25	154	246
258	Francesco Laporta	45	151	268
259	Keita Nakajima	10	151	258
260	Jamie Donaldson	41	151	253
261	Henrik Stenson	40	151	254
262	Matthew Jordan	45	149	259
263	Seth Reeves	17	148	262
264	Joakim Lagergren	39	148	260
265	Callum Shinkwin	39	147	267
266	Sung Kang	55	147	266
267	Lukas Nemecz	9	145	240
268	Ryosuke Kinoshita	18	144	269
269	Grant Forrest	44	142	276
270	Nick Hardy	18	142	273
271	Adrian Otaegui	48	142	271
272	Callum Tarren	16	141	275
273	Matthias Schmid	19	141	261
274	Daniel van Tonder	33	141	265
275	Austin Cook	49	140	272
276	Ross Fisher	43	140	296
277	Shugo Imahira	17	139	277
278	Bo Van Pelt	43	138	281
279	Will Gordon	39	138	278
280	Peter Uihlein	31	137	280
281	Michael Gligic	46	136	283
282	Edoardo Molinari	40	136	274
283	Richie Ramsay	46	135	279
284	MJ Daffue	16	134	282
285	Jason Dufner	46	133	284
286	Ben Kohles	16	133	285
287	Kevin Chappell	24	132	286
288	Seonghyeon Kim	8	128	287
289	Rob Oppenheim	36	128	289
290	John Catlin	44	128	288
291	Rikuya Hoshino	21	128	291
292	David Lingmerth	19	124	294
293	Daniel Gavins	26	123	297
294	Wilco Nienaber	38	123	290
295	Julien Guerrier	42	122	292
296	Xinjun Zhang	38	120	295
297	Wil Besseling	44	118	293
298	Connor Syme	45	118	299
299	Jazz Janewattananond	45	118	298
300	Curtis Thompson	19	115	303
301	Dawie van der Walt	18	115	301
302	Renato Paratore	46	115	300
303	Louis de Jager	27	115	330
304	Jacques Blaauw	8	113
305	Joohyung Kim	11	112	309
306	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	38	112	306
307	Richard Sterne	15	111	406
308	Jack Senior	43	110	310
309	Matthew Southgate	44	110	311
310	James Morrison	47	110	305
311	Luke Donald	42	109	313
312	Ben Martin	31	109	315
313	Ollie Schniederjans	10	108	317
314	Bill Haas	41	108	314
315	Kristoffer Broberg	29	108	302
316	Tapio Pulkkanen	45	108	308
317	Ewen Ferguson	27	107	304
318	Kristoffer Ventura	37	107	312
319	Hiroshi Iwata	16	107	316
320	Ryan Brehm	30	106	307
321	Joost Luiten	46	105	320
322	Akshay Bhatia	15	105	318
323	Jorge Campillo	49	105	322
324	Craig Howie	19	104	319
325	Thorbjorn Olesen	33	101	325
326	Alexander Levy	44	101	324
327	Mark Anderson	29	101	328
328	Ben Taylor	26	101	323
329	Maximilian Kieffer	44	101	321
330	Jim Knous	16	100	327
331	Marcus Kinhult	35	100	329
332	Eddie Pepperell	37	98	332
333	David Law	47	98	335
334	Sami Valimaki	42	97	326
335	Marc Warren	37	97	333
336	Kelly Kraft	32	95	336
337	Chris Baker	29	95	337
338	Jacques Kruyswijk	27	94	344
339	Aaron Cockerill	41	94	349
340	Tommy Gainey	14	93	343
341	Neil Schietekat	10	93	331
342	Scott Brown	44	93	342
343	Chris Stroud	18	92	340
344	Benjamin Hebert	38	92	345
345	Bryce Easton	30	91	334
346	Justin Walters	47	90	339
347	Martin Trainer	49	90	346
348	Fabian Gomez	35	89	348
349	Brandon Wu	22	89	351
350	Jayden Trey Schaper	13	88	341
351	Robert Rock	30	87	352
352	Justin Lower	15	87	353
353	Tomoharu Otsuki	15	86	354
354	Darren Fichardt	23	86	358
355	Brian Gay	48	85	350
356	Scott Vincent	31	85	355
357	Niall Kearney	22	85	356
358	Nacho Elvira	47	84	396
359	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	11	84	338
360	JC Ritchie	20	83	393
361	Michael Gellerman	23	83	360
362	Aaron Baddeley	35	82	359
363	Nicolas Colsaerts	31	81	361
364	Niklas Lemke	35	80	362
365	Nino Bertasio	39	80	357
366	Scott Harrington	41	79	363
367	Hideto Tanihara	10	78	365
368	Oscar Lengden	12	78	367
369	Berry Henson	15	77	368
370	David Skinns	14	77	366
371	Santiago Tarrio Ben	17	77	378
372	Frederic LaCroix	9	77	347
373	Yuki Inamori	17	77	369
374	Jinichiro Kozuma	14	77	371
375	Naoto Nakanishi	14	76	370
376	Dale Whitnell	45	76	364
377	Josh Teater	26	74	374
378	Seung-yul Noh	24	74	372
379	David Hearn	39	73	376
380	Andy Ogletree	11	73	381
381	Paul Peterson	16	72	379
382	Joshua Creel	14	71	377
383	Stephen Gallacher	31	71	373
384	Mikumu Horikawa	13	71	382
385	Tim Wilkinson	22	71	380
386	Roberto Castro	10	71	383
387	Zander Lombard	44	71	375
388	Niklas Norgaard Moller	9	68	386
389	William McGirt	22	67	388
390	Miguel Angel Jimenez	14	67	389
391	Sebastian Soderberg	43	67	385
392	Ben Stow	15	67	387
393	Scott Gutschewski	16	66	394
394	Sihwan Kim	34	66	397
395	Chris Paisley	41	65	390
396	Darius van Driel	43	65	392
397	Rafael Campos	30	65	400
398	Adrien Saddier	35	65	398
399	Andrea Pavan	36	64	391
400	Nelson Ledesma	26	64	399
More \| Less

Perspectives on The Players Championship

March 7, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

NEW This Month

An evaluation of the quality of the data appears at the bottom. It shows the extent to which ordering within the lists correlates with finishes.

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .555 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .290 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Adam Scott	0.559
Sergio Garcia	0.517
Justin Thomas	0.497
Rory McIlroy	0.490
Hideki Matsuyama	0.465
Dustin Johnson	0.436
Jason Day	0.430
Brian Harman	0.398

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this week’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1529.4
Justin Thomas	2	1338.3
Patrick Cantlay	3	1316.8
Xander Schauffele	4	1253.3
Scottie Scheffler	5	1207.1
Rory McIlroy	6	1151.9
Collin Morikawa	7	1135.5
Viktor Hovland	8	1117.2

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this week.

Player	Rank	Rating
Harris English	38	710.3
Taylor Montgomery	70	502.8
Robert MacIntyre	83	435.2
Charles Howell	92	404.8

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Scottie Scheffler	1945.5
Billy Horschel	1613.7
Viktor Hovland	1445.4
Chris Kirk	1292.7
Cameron Young	1143.8
Max Homa	1128.0
Matthew Fitzpatrick	1075.5
Joaquin Niemann	1058.9

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Bryson DeChambeau	-864.7
Patrick Reed	-610.7
Sam Burns	-539.8
Tony Finau	-521.5
Seamus Power	-520.0
Matthew Wolff	-503.6
Charley Hoffman	-481.8
Dustin Johnson	-446.2

Certain skills required

Stat value	Statistic
0.12	Shots gained putting
0.12	Shots gained in approach
0.08	Greens in regulation
0.05	Shots gained off the tee

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Thomas Pieters	72.71
Jon Rahm	72.82
Viktor Hovland	73.09
Daniel Berger	73.09
Mito Pereira	73.11
Collin Morikawa	73.12
Patrick Cantlay	73.17
Xander Schauffele	73.17

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Brian Gay	74.6
Lucas Herbert	74.5
Jimmy Walker	74.4
Brandon Hagy	74.3
Stephan Jaeger	74.3
Francesco Molinari	74.2
Wyndham Clark	74.2
Tyler McCumber	74.2

In the neighborhood

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Lanto Griffin	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Russell Knox	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Sam Ryder	Atlantic Beach FL	9
Cameron Smith	Jacksonville FL	18
Doc Redman	Jacksonville FL	18
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island GA	75
Zach Johnson	St. Simons Island GA	75
JT Poston	St. Simons Island GA	75
Hudson Swafford	St. Simons Island GA	75
Keith Mitchell	St. Simons Island GA	75
Matt Kuchar	St. Simons Island GA	75

Ending with a little more math

Statistic	Correlation to results
I love this place	0.132
Top of the heap	0.204
Ooh, that’s hot	0.148
Location, location, location	0.278

Home

I love this place!

Top of the heap

Sorry, can’t make it

Ooh, that’s hot

Brr, that’s cold

Certain skills required

In the neighborhood

Ending with a little more math

I love this place!

I love this place!

Top of the heap

Sorry, can’t make it

Ooh, that’s hot

Brr, that’s cold

Certain skills required

Location, location, location

Anyplace but here

Staying close to home

Ending with a little more math

I love this place!

Top of the heap

Sorry, can’t make it

Ooh, that’s hot

Brr, that’s cold

Certain skills required

Location, location, location

Anyplace but here

In the neighborhood

Ending with a little more math