Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Apr. 11, 2021)

April 12, 2021 Thomas Hawley

Jon Rahm has been no. 1 for all but two weeks since early December.
# Thru Apr. 11, 2021 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Jon Rahm 43 1536 1
2 Justin Thomas 43 1329 2
3 Xander Schauffele 42 1290 4
4 Rory McIlroy 43 1266 3
5 Webb Simpson 38 1188 6
6 Bryson DeChambeau 43 1179 5
7 Dustin Johnson 35 1100 7
8 Patrick Cantlay 37 1049 8
9 Daniel Berger 42 1037 9
10 Patrick Reed 56 1035 10
11 Tyrrell Hatton 42 963 12
12 Tony Finau 54 962 13
13 Matthew Fitzpatrick 49 960 11
14 Hideki Matsuyama 52 934 15
15 Paul Casey 43 882 14
16 Will Zalatoris 22 869 28
17 Collin Morikawa 45 865 18
18 Viktor Hovland 47 856 17
19 Harris English 49 839 22
20 Ryan Palmer 44 836 19
21 Abraham Ancer 53 820 23
22 Sungjae Im 63 815 21
23 Scottie Scheffler 45 814 26
24 Tommy Fleetwood 46 813 20
25 Brooks Koepka 37 804 16
26 Louis Oosthuizen 43 797 25
27 Corey Conners 53 790 29
28 Jordan Spieth 44 788 31
29 Billy Horschel 50 776 24
30 Cameron Smith 46 747 32
31 Adam Scott 34 738 27
32 Jason Kokrak 48 729 30
33 Brian Harman 53 720 33
34 Joaquin Niemann 53 673 34
35 Tiger Woods 18 650 36
36 Justin Rose 42 647 46
37 Kevin Kisner 48 636 35
38 Kevin Na 45 632 45
39 Russell Henley 44 629 41
40 Sergio Garcia 45 627 37
41 Max Homa 49 626 39
42 Jason Day 43 620 38
43 Lee Westwood 45 614 40
44 Cameron Tringale 44 603 43
45 Bubba Watson 43 598 47
46 Victor Perez 41 595 42
47 Marc Leishman 44 586 58
48 Lanto Griffin 48 585 44
49 Shane Lowry 47 577 49
50 Ian Poulter 47 576 48
51 Talor Gooch 48 571 50
52 Gary Woodland 43 553 51
53 Erik Van Rooyen 51 538 53
54 Alex Noren 47 536 55
55 Matthew Wolff 42 535 52
56 Brendan Steele 44 534 60
57 Charley Hoffman 49 531 63
58 Joel Dahmen 50 529 62
59 Brendon Todd 53 528 54
60 JT Poston 53 527 57
61 Robert MacIntyre 44 526 72
62 Sam Burns 42 515 66
63 Bud Cauley 32 515 64
64 Carlos Ortiz 51 515 56
65 Byeong Hun An 49 515 65
66 Matt Kuchar 45 507 59
67 Francesco Molinari 27 502 61
68 Si Woo Kim 55 501 78
69 Adam Hadwin 44 496 68
70 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 47 493 69
71 Sebastian Munoz 57 489 70
72 Dylan Frittelli 53 484 67
73 Rory Sabbatini 52 483 71
74 Mac Hughes 49 481 73
75 Charles Howell 47 477 74
76 Kevin Streelman 49 473 75
77 Rickie Fowler 42 470 76
78 Chris Kirk 27 469 77
79 Harold Varner 49 465 79
80 Adam Long 54 461 80
81 Matt Jones 54 458 84
82 Keegan Bradley 48 456 82
83 James Hahn 25 452 83
84 Matt Wallace 53 445 85
85 Brandt Snedeker 43 440 86
86 Zach Johnson 40 439 81
87 Lucas Glover 50 439 87
88 Tom Hoge 57 437 88
89 Wyndham Clark 48 430 89
90 Matthew NeSmith 43 426 90
91 Cameron Champ 49 423 95
92 Maverick McNealy 40 422 93
93 Andrew Putnam 47 422 91
94 Ryan Moore 32 419 92
95 Bernd Wiesberger 46 410 94
96 Cameron Davis 50 409 97
97 Thomas Pieters 37 408 96
98 Henrik Norlander 44 398 99
99 Danny Willett 47 388 98
100 Martin Kaymer 37 380 101
101 Chez Reavie 52 379 100
102 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 28 378 102
103 Richy Werenski 48 371 106
104 Rafa Cabrera Bello 50 370 103
105 Doc Redman 43 366 104
106 Emiliano Grillo 49 365 107
107 Denny McCarthy 53 364 108
108 Kurt Kitayama 39 364 109
109 Stewart Cink 36 364 126
110 Scott Piercy 41 361 105
111 Harry Higgs 42 359 110
112 Mark Hubbard 44 358 111
113 Matthias Schwab 45 354 112
114 Sepp Straka 56 348 114
115 Paul Waring 34 347 113
116 Andrew Johnston 22 337 115
117 Michael Thompson 43 337 118
118 Tom Lewis 47 337 116
119 Patton Kizzire 46 335 117
120 Steve Stricker 21 330 121
121 Vaughn Taylor 47 330 119
122 Thomas Detry 46 329 120
123 Russell Knox 52 326 122
124 Phil Mickelson 40 324 140
125 Kyle Stanley 47 322 123
126 Peter Malnati 50 318 124
127 Nate Lashley 50 313 125
128 John Huh 21 310 128
129 Nick Taylor 47 309 129
130 Danny Lee 48 307 130
131 Doug Ghim 37 306 131
132 Henrik Stenson 39 305 127
133 KH Lee 56 304 133
134 Andy Sullivan 43 301 134
135 Branden Grace 48 300 135
136 Jonas Blixt 11 299 132
137 Patrick Rodgers 50 299 136
138 Luke List 49 295 137
139 Brice Garnett 48 293 138
140 Charl Schwartzel 31 293 154
141 Marcus Kinhult 38 292 139
142 Chase Seiffert 36 289 142
143 Chesson Hadley 43 286 141
144 Wesley Bryan 12 285 144
145 Keith Mitchell 47 284 146
146 Adri Arnaus 43 282 147
147 Andrew Landry 45 281 145
148 Robby Shelton 44 280 148
149 Camilo Villegas 18 275 150
150 Antoine Rozner 28 275 149
151 Aaron Wise 41 271 151
152 Troy Merritt 56 270 152
153 CT Pan 49 269 143
154 Brian Stuard 55 269 153
155 Sung Kang 52 265 155
156 Bo Hoag 43 265 157
157 Jhonattan Vegas 44 265 156
158 Kalle Samooja 40 264 158
159 Lucas Herbert 32 260 159
160 Ryan Fox 38 260 161
161 Will Gordon 30 260 163
162 Ryan Armour 49 260 162
163 Sam Ryder 50 258 164
164 Jim Furyk 29 255 160
165 Zac Blair 31 253 165
166 Martin Laird 40 252 167
167 Brandon Hagy 37 252 170
168 Graeme McDowell 48 251 166
169 Jeunghun Wang 27 250 168
170 Jason Scrivener 44 249 171
171 Aaron Rai 42 247 169
172 Benjamin Hebert 42 244 172
173 Pat Perez 46 239 173
174 George Coetzee 38 238 175
175 Adam Schenk 55 235 176
176 Justin Suh 18 234 177
177 Scott Stallings 45 234 178
178 David Lipsky 29 233 180
179 Scott Jamieson 40 231 183
180 Cameron Percy 35 230 179
181 Joost Luiten 48 229 182
182 Romain Langasque 42 229 181
183 Robert Streb 47 227 174
184 Tyler McCumber 37 226 184
185 Victor Dubuisson 26 225 185
186 JB Holmes 30 221 190
187 Shaun Norris 30 221 188
188 Ross Fisher 39 219 189
189 Xinjun Zhang 47 218 187
190 Tyler Duncan 58 218 191
191 Mikko Korhonen 33 217 192
192 Eddie Pepperell 32 217 186
193 Laurie Canter 25 213 193
194 Gavin Green 42 212 195
195 Joseph Bramlett 37 209 197
196 Rasmus Hojgaard 25 208 199
197 Sami Valimaki 24 208 198
198 Roger Sloan 45 208 196
199 Jack Singh Brar 29 205 202
200 Brandon Stone 42 203 205
201 Hudson Swafford 32 203 194
202 Sam Horsfield 40 202 204
203 Joakim Lagergren 38 202 201
204 Kevin Tway 44 201 200
205 Bronson Burgoon 44 200 206
206 Jordan Smith 45 199 207
207 Nick Watney 42 199 203
208 Beau Hossler 53 199 208
209 Haotong Li 40 194 209
210 Guido Migliozzi 41 190 212
211 Joachim B Hansen 45 190 211
212 Richard Sterne 26 189 213
213 Kramer Hickok 45 188 215
214 Adam Svensson 18 186 214
215 Renato Paratore 46 185 216
216 Anirban Lahiri 38 184 218
217 Brian Gay 49 184 210
218 Dawie van der Walt 9 183 217
219 Ben Martin 26 181 219
220 Dean Burmester 47 179 221
221 Matthew Jordan 24 179 220
222 Wade Ormsby 36 175 223
223 Scott Brown 49 175 225
224 Padraig Harrington 41 175 224
225 Chris Paisley 43 174 230
226 Fabrizio Zanotti 31 173 233
227 Calum Hill 30 172 232
228 Austin Cook 46 172 228
229 Josh Teater 38 172 226
230 Andrea Pavan 44 172 222
231 Hugo Leon 21 172 229
232 Vincent Whaley 32 171 236
233 Richie Ramsay 43 170 231
234 Hank Lebioda 47 169 235
235 Seamus Power 34 168 227
236 Carl Yuan 9 168 237
237 Jorge Campillo 44 168 238
238 Zander Lombard 44 168 240
239 Wes Roach 36 167 234
240 Rob Oppenheim 41 167 241
241 Ashun Wu 36 167 243
242 David Horsey 38 166 242
243 Justin Harding 47 164 245
244 Callum Shinkwin 36 164 246
245 Matthew Southgate 45 164 244
246 Fabian Gomez 46 163 247
247 Joey Garber 18 162 239
248 Sean Crocker 41 160 250
249 Masahiro Kawamura 49 160 249
250 Peter Uihlein 38 160 248
251 Takumi Kanaya 14 160 251
252 Jamie Donaldson 40 157 253
253 Michael Gligic 37 157 255
254 Thorbjorn Olesen 20 155 254
255 Ted Potter 42 155 259
256 Jeff Winther 38 155 256
257 Nino Bertasio 36 154 257
258 Kristoffer Ventura 37 153 262
259 Roberto Diaz 21 153 252
260 MJ Daffue 12 152 265
261 Jason Dufner 45 151 261
262 Shawn Stefani 30 150 258
263 Brandon Wu 16 150 266
264 Sang-hyun Park 16 149 263
265 Marc Warren 31 148 272
266 Chris Stroud 34 148 267
267 Roberto Castro 25 148 264
268 Kevin Chappell 25 148 270
269 DJ Trahan 39 147 269
270 Tim Wilkinson 31 147 273
271 Stephan Jaeger 21 144 268
272 Alex Prugh 18 143 260
273 Alexander Bjork 38 143 274
274 Marcus Armitage 27 143 275
275 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 38 142 271
276 Robert Rock 31 139 277
277 David Hearn 44 138 276
278 Miguel Angel Jimenez 14 137 281
279 Grant Forrest 44 137 282
280 Scott Harrington 42 137 280
281 Shubhankar Sharma 47 136 278
282 Jim Herman 42 136 285
283 Jung-gon Hwang 13 136 286
284 Sebastian Soderberg 41 135 284
285 Niklas Lemke 39 133 289
286 Grayson Murray 29 133 291
287 Pablo Larrazabal 42 133 287
288 Billy Hurley 14 133 279
289 Boo Weekley 14 132 283
290 Cody Gribble 15 132 290
291 Chan Kim 21 132 293
292 Jazz Janewattananond 40 131 288
293 Brad Kennedy 14 131 294
294 Akshay Bhatia 13 129 295
295 Connor Syme 29 129 297
296 Zack Sucher 32 128 292
297 Matthieu Pavon 47 128 299
298 Andres Romero 21 128 296
299 Sebastian Cappelen 35 125 304
300 Johannes Veerman 33 124 302
301 Hennie du Plessis 8 124 301
302 Aaron Baddeley 34 124 300
303 Nicolas Colsaerts 41 123 303
304 Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 16 123 298
305 Shugo Imahira 27 122 305
306 Rafael Campos 24 122 306
307 Stephen Gallacher 33 118 311
308 Jimmy Walker 42 118 307
309 Garrick Higgo 21 117 308
310 Mark Anderson 31 116 314
311 Jayden Trey Schaper 10 116 313
312 George McNeill 21 116 309
313 Wil Besseling 26 116 312
314 Joohyung Kim 9 114 315
315 Kyung-nam Kang 12 114 319
316 Sam Saunders 16 114 310
317 Steven Brown 47 114 317
318 Jonathan Byrd 30 113 316
319 Francesco Laporta 24 112 318
320 Chris Baker 33 111 321
321 Wilco Nienaber 30 111 322
322 Seung-yul Noh 15 110 324
323 Adrian Otaegui 47 110 323
324 Jack Senior 33 110 325
325 Travis Smyth 11 110 326
326 Sebastian Heisele 19 109 327
327 Tom Lovelady 8 108 332
328 Chase Wright 17 108 320
329 Alexander Levy 43 107 329
330 Lorenzo Gagli 44 106 328
331 Jamie Arnold 8 105 331
332 Ricky Barnes 23 104 333
333 Ollie Schniederjans 22 104 334
334 Darren Fichardt 27 104 336
335 Sean O’Hair 13 103 335
336 Min Woo Lee 30 102 337
337 JJ Spaun 44 102 330
338 Luke Donald 36 102 339
339 Nacho Elvira 42 101 340
340 Alex Cejka 21 101 341
341 Rikuya Hoshino 20 101 342
342 Edoardo Molinari 41 100 338
343 Adrien Saddier 36 100 343
344 Greyson Sigg 8 99 344
345 Bradley Dredge 19 98 347
346 Ryan Brehm 31 98 346
347 Kyle Jones 17 98 345
348 Seung-su Han 15 97 353
349 Kristoffer Broberg 8 96 356
350 Louis de Jager 36 96 351
351 Scott Hend 43 96 352
352 Ashley Chesters 41 96 349
353 John Catlin 37 96 350
354 Scott Vincent 34 96 355
355 Jacques Kruyswijk 29 95 358
356 Justin Walters 48 95 357
357 Bill Haas 36 95 354
358 James Morrison 45 94 359
359 Gunn Charoenkul 13 94 361
360 Richard Bland 25 93 360
361 KJ Choi 23 92 348
362 Soren Kjeldsen 40 91 363
363 Chad Campbell 18 91 362
364 Ben Crane 14 90 364
365 Hiroyuki Fujita 17 90 365
366 Tomoharu Otsuki 22 89 367
367 Brendan Jones 11 88 366
368 Craig Howie 12 87 369
369 Zach Murray 19 86 374
370 Anthony Quayle 11 86 376
371 Johnson Wagner 30 85 368
372 Lee Hodges 10 85 372
373 Rikard Karlberg 32 85 371
374 Dominic Bozzelli 34 84 370
375 Bernd Ritthammer 29 84 375
376 Hideto Tanihara 26 82 377
377 Kyung-tae Kim 13 82 383
378 Alejandro Canizares 38 82 378
379 John Chin 16 81 379
380 Daniel van Tonder 11 81 384
381 Miguel Tabuena 8 81 385
382 Sihwan Kim 31 80 380
383 Kelly Kraft 28 80 381
384 Adrian Meronk 25 80 386
385 Jaco van Zyl 16 79 388
386 Curtis Luck 16 77 373
387 Yuta Ikeda 19 77 390
388 Kristoffer Reitan 28 77 387
389 Charlie Saxon 9 77 391
390 Oscar Lengden 14 77 392
391 Sadom Kaewkanjana 8 76 395
392 Matt Every 42 76 382
393 Ryosuke Kinoshita 18 75 399
394 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 16 75 397
395 Maverick Antcliff 23 75 396
396 Mikumu Horikawa 24 75 398
397 Lucas Bjerregaard 41 74 389
398 Dale Whitnell 24 74 400
399 Brandon Harkins 18 74 393
400 Thongchai Jaidee 13 73 394
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

A Look at the Masters

April 6, 2021 Thomas Hawley

Thinking about looking down that list of entries and picking out the guy who has had a dominant year and is positioned to add a career-defining Masters victory to his resume this week?

It’s a trick question. The key part is the words “dominant season”, and the answer to the question is that the guy doesn’t exist. If you look at the top eight players in the world as defined in the Hawley Ratings, only one (Bryson DeChambeau) has raised his rating this year. If you prefer the Official World Golf Ratings, only two (Collin Morikawa and Patrick Reed) have done so in 2021. In none of those cases has the player been close to what would have been considered dominant in another year.

Bottom line, one of those top players may win it, but certainly it’s wide open to someone from well down the list to take the green jacket.

Let’s start with a run-down of the three names mentioned above:

  • Bryson DeChambeau – Seven appearances in 2021, one win (Palmer), two other top-10s (TPC, Champions), one other top-20, one missed cut. Last time out – 42nd in the Match Play. Assessment: A threat.
  • Collin Morikawa – Seven appearances, one win (WGC Mexico), two other top-10s (Sony, Champions), no other top-20s, one MC. Last time out – 56th in the Match Play. Assessment: Better at the start of the year.
  • Patrick Reed – Eight appearances, one win (Farmers), one other top-10 (Mexico), no other top-20s, three MCs. Last time out – 28th in the Match Play. Assessment: 2018 Masters champion has been better in the bigger events.

Again, those are the guys whose ratings went up. Here are the rest of the world top eight (Hawley list), in order from closest to 2020 form to worst in relation to 2020 form:

  • Jon Rahm (no. 1, rating down 107 points) – Seven appearances, no wins, five top-10s (Match Play, Phoenix, Genesis, Farmers, Champions), one other top-20, no MCs. Last time out – fifth In Match Play. Assessment: Solid season other than lack of a win.
  • Xander Schauffele (no. 4, rating down 107 points) – Seven appearances, no wins, three top-10s (Phoenix, Farmers, Champions), two other top-20s, one MC. Assessment: Had back-to-back ties for second, playing fine.
  • Justin Thomas (no. 2, rating down 137 points) – Seven appearances, one win (TPC), one other top-10 (Champions), two top-20s, two MCs. Last time out – 42nd in Match Play. Assessment: Great TPC win and only a little otherwise.
  • Patrick Cantlay (no. 8, rating down 167 points) – Six appearances, no wins, two top-10s (Pebble, AmEx), two other top-20s, one MC. Last time out – 18th in Match Play. Assessment: Was best in January and February.
  • Webb Simpson (no. 6, rating down 203 points) – Six appearances, no wins, two top-10s (Mexico, Sony), no other top-20s, one MC. Last time out – 28th in Match Play. Assessment: Underachiever in 2021.
  • Dustin Johnson (no. 7, rating down 284 points) – Six appearances, one win (Saudi [Euro event]), one other top-10 (Genesis), one other top-20, no MCs. Last time out – 28th In Match Play. Assessment: Won 2020 Masters only four and a half months ago, and wonder if he’ll think another February visit to Saudi Arabia is worth it next year.
  • Rory McIlroy (no. 3, rating down 292 points) – Eight appearances, no wins, three top-10s (Palmer, Mexico, Abu Dhabi [Euro]), two top-20s, two MCs. Last time out – 28th in Match Play. Assessment: Flashed in spots, maintained class while rating sank.

Let’s look for another way to assess this.

It’s pretty much a given that there is no course in the world more admired for its beauty than Augusta National. And not only is it a beautiful sight, but it is also a balanced course that requires excellence in all phases of the game from the successful player. This is supported statistically by a profile that shows a high mathematical correlation between event success and player strengths basically across all the basic skills. Over the last eight Masters, the top statistic in correlation with success is greens in regulation. Scrambling is next, then putting, then driving distance.

In terms of how the players are performing this season, Cantlay has the statistical profile that is the no. 1 fit for Augusta National. He’s in the top quarter of all U.S. and Euro pros in GIR, in the top 2 percent in scrambling, and top quarter in putting. Next is Simpson (top 10 percent in GIR, top 1 percent in scrambling, top half in putting). Then you have Thomas (top quarter in GIR), Tony Finau (top quarter in GIR, top 10 percent in putting), and DeChambeau (top 10 percent in driving distance). Others showing a well-balanced game, in order, are Scottie Scheffler, Rahm, Paul Casey, and Schauffele.

In terms of players who have been getting it done recently, and in addition to the previously mentioned Rahm and DeChambeau, the following have the best recent showings. In rating order:

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (no. 11) – Has a current streak of six straight events in the top 20, including three in the top 10, and with a best of fifth in the Genesis.
  • Paul Casey (no. 14) – Very good fit for the course, also has six straight in the top 20 of stroke-play events (although 40th in the Match Play). Won the Euro Tour Omega Dubai event in January.
  • Corey Conners (no. 29) – Has two top-10s (TPC and Palmer), a top-20, and an 0-3 record in the Match Play.
  • Jason Kokrak (no. 30) – Had three straight top-10s in the Mexico, Palmer, and TPC.
  • Jordan Spieth (no. 31) – Onetime boy wonder and 2015 Masters champion is making fans smile again. Won last week at Texas, and had two top-10s (Palmer, Pebble), two top-20s, and a finish just above the cut line in TPC in five events leading into the win.
  • Cameron Smith (no. 32) – Good fit for the course. Last four outings were a fourth at the Genesis, two top-20s, and a mid-pack finish in the Match Play.
  • Lee Westwood (no. 40)— 44-year-old has been up and down with a top-20 in the Match Play, MC at the Honda, and a runner-up finish at the Palmer in his last three starts.

Roll the dice or throw a dart. From this corner, it seems like Rahm, DeChambeau, and Casey are the top three.

The Masters

April 4, 2021 Thomas Hawley ,
Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Jon Rahm 17.8 5
2 Dustin Johnson 28.0 60
3 Rory McIlroy 29.8 67
4 Justin Thomas 31.9 21
5 Bryson DeChambeau 36.1 46
6 Xander Schauffele 36.8 3
7 Webb Simpson 39.4 12
8 Patrick Cantlay 40.1 74
9 Matthew Fitzpatrick 41.0 34
10 Patrick Reed 41.7 8
11 Paul Casey 42.4 26
12 Brooks Koepka 44.1 60
13 Jordan Spieth 45.4 3
14 Cameron Smith 45.8 10
15 Tony Finau 47.3 10
16 Corey Conners 48.1 8
17 Sungjae Im 49.9 84
18 Hideki Matsuyama 50.5 1
19 Tyrrell Hatton 50.6 18
20 Jason Kokrak 50.6 49
21 Louis Oosthuizen 50.6 26
22 Abraham Ancer 51.2 26
23 Tommy Fleetwood 51.6 46
24 Scottie Scheffler 51.9 18
25 Lee Westwood 52.2 60
26 Billy Horschel 53.1 50
27 Adam Scott 53.9 54
28 Collin Morikawa 55.1 18
29 Jason Day 56.8 77
30 Max Homa 57.0 55
31 Matt Kuchar 58.3 55
32 Victor Perez 58.4 71
33 Kevin Kisner 58.5 60
34 Bubba Watson 59.1 26
35 Justin Rose 59.1 7
36 Lanto Griffin 60.3 60
37 Ian Poulter 60.6 26
38 Adam Hadwin 61.7 DNP
39 Kevin Na 61.9 12
40 Rickie Fowler 62.0 DNP
41 Si Woo Kim 62.2 12
42 Shane Lowry 62.6 21
43 Marc Leishman 63.1 5
44 Matt Wallace 63.2 34
45 Francesco Molinari 63.3 52
46 Brendon Todd 63.3 46
47 Erik Van Rooyen 63.4 DNP
48 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 63.5 40
49 Dylan Frittelli 63.5 67
50 Charles Howell 64.3 DNP
51 Zach Johnson 64.4 71
52 Matthew Wolff 64.7 81
53 JT Poston 64.8 DNP
54 Sebastian Munoz 65.9 40
55 Gary Woodland 65.9 40
56 Lucas Glover 66.1 DNP
57 Andrew Putnam 66.4 DNP
58 Danny Willett 67.7 60
59 Bernd Wiesberger 68.1 40
60 Byeong Hun An 68.5 DNP
61 Brandt Snedeker 69.0 DNP
62 Phil Mickelson 69.2 21
63 CT Pan 69.3 67
64 Cameron Champ 70.2 26
65 Rafa Cabrera Bello 71.0 DNP
66 Chez Reavie 71.2 DNP
67 Nate Lashley 71.5 DNP
68 Charl Schwartzel 71.7 26
69 Nick Taylor 71.9 DNP
70 Henrik Stenson 72.4 38
71 Andrew Landry 73.0 DNP
72 Justin Harding 73.9 DNP
73 Graeme McDowell 74.6 DNP
74 Tyler Duncan 74.9 DNP
75 Shugo Imahira 75.3 DNP
76 Sung Kang 75.5 DNP
77 Bernhard Langer 75.7 71
78 Jimmy Walker 75.9 55
79 Jazz Janewattananond 76.1 DNP
80 Vijay Singh 76.9 86
81 Fred Couples 77.6 84
82 Mike Weir 77.8 60
83 Yuxin Lin 78.2 DNP
84 Lukas Michel 78.3 DNP
85 Larry Mize 78.5 88
86 Andy Ogletree 78.6 DNP
87 Sandy Lyle 78.6 82
88 Jose Maria Olazabal 78.7 50
89 John Augenstein 78.9 DNP
90 Abel Gallegos 78.9 DNP
91 James Sugrue 78.9 DNP
Will Zalatoris late entry 2
Stewart Cink late entry 13
Robert MacIntyre late entry 16
Brian Harman late entry 17
Harris English late entry 21
Viktor Hovland late entry 25
Matt Jones late entry 31
Michael Thompson late entry 34
Ryan Palmer late entry 37
Martin Laird late entry 38
Mac Hughes late entry 43
Joaquin Niemann late entry 44
Jim Herman late entry 53
Sergio Garcia late entry 55
Daniel Berger late entry 56
Robert Streb late entry 68
Brian Gay late entry 74
Charles Osborne late entry 76
Ian Woosnam late entry 77
Carlos Ortiz late entry 79
Joe Long late entry 80
Hudson Swafford late entry 82
Ty Strafaci late entry 87
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 54. The average is 138. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Apr. 4, 2021)

April 4, 2021 Thomas Hawley

Jon Rahm has been no. 1 for all but two weeks since early December.
# Thru Apr. 4, 2021 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Jon Rahm 42 1518 1
2 Justin Thomas 42 1349 2
3 Rory McIlroy 42 1326 3
4 Xander Schauffele 42 1251 4
5 Bryson DeChambeau 43 1218 5
6 Webb Simpson 38 1178 6
7 Dustin Johnson 35 1155 7
8 Patrick Cantlay 37 1113 8
9 Daniel Berger 42 1071 9
10 Patrick Reed 55 1014 10
11 Matthew Fitzpatrick 49 977 11
12 Tyrrell Hatton 41 955 13
13 Tony Finau 53 939 12
14 Paul Casey 42 891 15
15 Hideki Matsuyama 51 888 14
16 Brooks Koepka 36 856 16
17 Viktor Hovland 46 855 17
18 Collin Morikawa 44 854 18
19 Ryan Palmer 44 851 19
20 Tommy Fleetwood 46 841 20
21 Sungjae Im 63 838 21
22 Harris English 49 831 22
23 Abraham Ancer 53 821 23
24 Billy Horschel 50 804 26
25 Louis Oosthuizen 42 804 25
26 Scottie Scheffler 44 800 24
27 Adam Scott 33 782 27
28 Will Zalatoris 21 770 28
29 Corey Conners 53 755 30
30 Jason Kokrak 48 754 29
31 Jordan Spieth 44 733 32
32 Cameron Smith 46 711 31
33 Brian Harman 53 692 34
34 Joaquin Niemann 52 690 33
35 Kevin Kisner 48 661 36
36 Tiger Woods 18 653 35
37 Sergio Garcia 44 649 37
38 Jason Day 42 645 38
39 Max Homa 48 643 39
40 Lee Westwood 44 637 40
41 Russell Henley 45 626 41
42 Victor Perez 40 622 42
43 Cameron Tringale 44 605 47
44 Lanto Griffin 47 604 43
45 Kevin Na 45 602 45
46 Justin Rose 41 600 44
47 Bubba Watson 42 590 46
48 Ian Poulter 47 574 48
49 Shane Lowry 47 572 49
50 Talor Gooch 48 570 50
51 Gary Woodland 42 565 60
52 Matthew Wolff 41 559 51
53 Erik Van Rooyen 51 542 63
54 Brendon Todd 52 537 59
55 Alex Noren 48 536 57
56 Carlos Ortiz 50 535 58
57 JT Poston 54 530 61
58 Marc Leishman 44 530 62
59 Matt Kuchar 45 530 65
60 Brendan Steele 44 530 52
61 Francesco Molinari 27 529 56
62 Joel Dahmen 51 529 53
63 Charley Hoffman 50 529 72
64 Bud Cauley 33 518 64
65 Byeong Hun An 50 517 54
66 Sam Burns 43 517 55
67 Dylan Frittelli 52 504 67
68 Adam Hadwin 45 499 70
69 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 46 499 69
70 Sebastian Munoz 56 496 78
71 Rory Sabbatini 53 493 66
72 Robert MacIntyre 43 488 71
73 Mac Hughes 49 486 73
74 Charles Howell 48 480 68
75 Kevin Streelman 50 477 76
76 Rickie Fowler 42 473 79
77 Chris Kirk 28 468 92
78 Si Woo Kim 55 466 80
79 Harold Varner 50 465 74
80 Adam Long 55 463 77
81 Zach Johnson 40 461 75
82 Keegan Bradley 48 456 83
83 James Hahn 25 452 81
84 Matt Jones 53 448 84
85 Matt Wallace 53 448 93
86 Brandt Snedeker 44 446 95
87 Lucas Glover 51 443 98
88 Tom Hoge 58 435 94
89 Wyndham Clark 49 431 87
90 Matthew NeSmith 43 425 88
91 Andrew Putnam 48 425 85
92 Ryan Moore 33 423 82
93 Maverick McNealy 40 421 91
94 Bernd Wiesberger 45 418 86
95 Cameron Champ 49 409 96
96 Thomas Pieters 37 408 97
97 Cameron Davis 50 407 90
98 Danny Willett 47 405 89
99 Henrik Norlander 44 396 99
100 Chez Reavie 53 385 100
101 Martin Kaymer 38 383 102
102 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 28 383 101
103 Rafa Cabrera Bello 51 374 103
104 Doc Redman 43 369 104
105 Scott Piercy 42 368 105
106 Richy Werenski 49 368 109
107 Emiliano Grillo 50 368 107
108 Denny McCarthy 54 366 108
109 Kurt Kitayama 39 364 110
110 Harry Higgs 42 359 106
111 Mark Hubbard 44 357 113
112 Matthias Schwab 45 356 112
113 Paul Waring 34 350 114
114 Sepp Straka 56 350 111
115 Andrew Johnston 22 343 115
116 Tom Lewis 47 336 116
117 Patton Kizzire 47 335 137
118 Michael Thompson 43 334 121
119 Vaughn Taylor 48 334 117
120 Thomas Detry 46 330 124
121 Steve Stricker 21 330 123
122 Russell Knox 53 328 118
123 Kyle Stanley 47 324 135
124 Peter Malnati 51 323 119
125 Nate Lashley 50 315 125
126 Stewart Cink 36 312 131
127 Henrik Stenson 38 311 120
128 John Huh 21 310 122
129 Nick Taylor 48 310 127
130 Danny Lee 49 308 126
131 Doug Ghim 37 307 130
132 Jonas Blixt 12 307 129
133 KH Lee 57 303 140
134 Andy Sullivan 43 301 136
135 Branden Grace 49 297 148
136 Patrick Rodgers 50 296 134
137 Luke List 50 295 151
138 Brice Garnett 49 294 132
139 Marcus Kinhult 38 294 138
140 Phil Mickelson 39 291 133
141 Chesson Hadley 44 287 156
142 Chase Seiffert 36 286 141
143 CT Pan 49 285 143
144 Wesley Bryan 12 285 128
145 Andrew Landry 46 283 139
146 Keith Mitchell 48 282 163
147 Adri Arnaus 43 282 149
148 Robby Shelton 44 281 142
149 Antoine Rozner 28 275 153
150 Camilo Villegas 18 275 177
151 Aaron Wise 41 274 144
152 Troy Merritt 57 274 154
153 Brian Stuard 56 273 145
154 Charl Schwartzel 31 271 147
155 Sung Kang 52 267 150
156 Jhonattan Vegas 44 265 152
157 Bo Hoag 43 265 155
158 Kalle Samooja 40 264 160
159 Lucas Herbert 32 260 162
160 Jim Furyk 30 260 146
161 Ryan Fox 38 259 164
162 Ryan Armour 50 259 158
163 Will Gordon 30 258 157
164 Sam Ryder 51 257 159
165 Zac Blair 31 254 166
166 Graeme McDowell 49 253 161
167 Martin Laird 40 250 173
168 Jeunghun Wang 27 249 168
169 Aaron Rai 42 248 167
170 Brandon Hagy 37 248 190
171 Jason Scrivener 44 248 169
172 Benjamin Hebert 42 245 171
173 Pat Perez 46 243 165
174 Robert Streb 46 238 175
175 George Coetzee 38 237 176
176 Adam Schenk 56 237 170
177 Justin Suh 18 234 178
178 Scott Stallings 46 234 174
179 Cameron Percy 35 233 172
180 David Lipsky 29 231 181
181 Romain Langasque 42 231 179
182 Joost Luiten 48 231 180
183 Scott Jamieson 40 230 182
184 Tyler McCumber 37 226 186
185 Victor Dubuisson 26 225 187
186 Eddie Pepperell 33 223 185
187 Xinjun Zhang 47 220 184
188 Shaun Norris 30 219 193
189 Ross Fisher 39 218 192
190 JB Holmes 30 218 183
191 Tyler Duncan 59 218 189
192 Mikko Korhonen 33 217 194
193 Laurie Canter 25 213 196
194 Hudson Swafford 32 213 198
195 Gavin Green 42 212 197
196 Roger Sloan 46 210 188
197 Joseph Bramlett 37 209 207
198 Sami Valimaki 24 208 200
199 Rasmus Hojgaard 25 206 203
200 Kevin Tway 44 205 199
201 Joakim Lagergren 38 204 204
202 Jack Singh Brar 29 203 209
203 Nick Watney 43 203 191
204 Sam Horsfield 40 203 205
205 Brandon Stone 42 203 208
206 Bronson Burgoon 44 202 195
207 Jordan Smith 45 201 206
208 Beau Hossler 54 199 202
209 Haotong Li 40 196 210
210 Brian Gay 49 195 201
211 Joachim B Hansen 45 192 213
212 Guido Migliozzi 41 192 212
213 Richard Sterne 26 190 214
214 Adam Svensson 18 189 215
215 Kramer Hickok 45 188 211
216 Renato Paratore 46 185 216
217 Dawie van der Walt 9 184 219
218 Anirban Lahiri 39 183 309
219 Ben Martin 26 181 238
220 Matthew Jordan 24 180 221
221 Dean Burmester 47 178 226
222 Andrea Pavan 44 177 222
223 Wade Ormsby 36 176 227
224 Padraig Harrington 41 176 217
225 Scott Brown 50 175 220
226 Josh Teater 38 175 225
227 Seamus Power 35 175 224
228 Austin Cook 47 175 218
229 Hugo Leon 21 174 228
230 Chris Paisley 43 174 232
231 Richie Ramsay 43 173 231
232 Calum Hill 30 172 234
233 Fabrizio Zanotti 31 172 236
234 Wes Roach 36 171 229
235 Hank Lebioda 47 171 223
236 Vincent Whaley 32 170 252
237 Carl Yuan 9 170 235
238 Jorge Campillo 44 169 237
239 Joey Garber 18 169 230
240 Zander Lombard 44 169 239
241 Rob Oppenheim 41 167 233
242 David Horsey 38 166 242
243 Ashun Wu 36 166 248
244 Matthew Southgate 45 165 241
245 Justin Harding 48 165 240
246 Callum Shinkwin 36 165 243
247 Fabian Gomez 46 164 244
248 Peter Uihlein 39 162 246
249 Masahiro Kawamura 49 161 253
250 Sean Crocker 41 161 254
251 Takumi Kanaya 14 159 261
252 Roberto Diaz 21 158 251
253 Jamie Donaldson 40 158 258
254 Thorbjorn Olesen 20 158 245
255 Michael Gligic 37 157 247
256 Jeff Winther 38 156 263
257 Nino Bertasio 36 156 262
258 Shawn Stefani 30 155 256
259 Ted Potter 43 155 255
260 Alex Prugh 18 154 250
261 Jason Dufner 46 154 249
262 Kristoffer Ventura 37 154 257
263 Sang-hyun Park 16 152 266
264 Roberto Castro 25 152 264
265 MJ Daffue 12 152 269
266 Brandon Wu 16 151 268
267 Chris Stroud 35 150 270
268 Stephan Jaeger 21 150 265
269 DJ Trahan 40 147 267
270 Kevin Chappell 25 147 260
271 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 38 147 259
272 Marc Warren 31 147 273
273 Tim Wilkinson 31 146 276
274 Alexander Bjork 38 144 275
275 Marcus Armitage 27 143 277
276 David Hearn 44 141 271
277 Robert Rock 31 140 279
278 Shubhankar Sharma 47 138 280
279 Billy Hurley 14 138 278
280 Scott Harrington 42 138 274
281 Miguel Angel Jimenez 14 138 282
282 Grant Forrest 44 137 283
283 Boo Weekley 15 137 281
284 Sebastian Soderberg 41 137 284
285 Jim Herman 42 136 287
286 Jung-gon Hwang 13 135 290
287 Pablo Larrazabal 42 134 289
288 Jazz Janewattananond 40 134 285
289 Niklas Lemke 39 134 291
290 Cody Gribble 16 134 286
291 Grayson Murray 29 133 292
292 Zack Sucher 32 132 288
293 Chan Kim 21 132 294
294 Brad Kennedy 14 131 295
295 Akshay Bhatia 13 130 272
296 Andres Romero 21 129 296
297 Connor Syme 29 128 298
298 Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 16 127 293
299 Matthieu Pavon 47 127 300
300 Aaron Baddeley 35 125 301
301 Hennie du Plessis 8 124 302
302 Johannes Veerman 33 124 305
303 Nicolas Colsaerts 41 124 303
304 Sebastian Cappelen 35 124 299
305 Shugo Imahira 27 123 304
306 Rafael Campos 24 122 327
307 Jimmy Walker 41 121 297
308 Garrick Higgo 21 118 308
309 George McNeill 21 117 307
310 Sam Saunders 17 117 306
311 Stephen Gallacher 33 117 312
312 Wil Besseling 26 116 310
313 Jayden Trey Schaper 10 116 311
314 Mark Anderson 32 115 314
315 Joohyung Kim 9 114 319
316 Jonathan Byrd 31 114 315
317 Steven Brown 47 114 318
318 Francesco Laporta 24 113 317
319 Kyung-nam Kang 12 113 322
320 Chase Wright 17 112 316
321 Chris Baker 33 111 325
322 Wilco Nienaber 30 111 323
323 Adrian Otaegui 47 110 324
324 Seung-yul Noh 15 110 320
325 Jack Senior 33 108 329
326 Travis Smyth 11 108 331
327 Sebastian Heisele 19 108 328
328 Lorenzo Gagli 44 107 330
329 Alexander Levy 43 107 332
330 JJ Spaun 45 105 321
331 Jamie Arnold 8 105 334
332 Tom Lovelady 8 104 341
333 Ricky Barnes 23 104 336
334 Ollie Schniederjans 23 104 337
335 Sean O’Hair 13 103 313
336 Darren Fichardt 27 103 339
337 Min Woo Lee 30 103 338
338 Edoardo Molinari 41 103 333
339 Luke Donald 37 103 326
340 Nacho Elvira 42 101 342
341 Alex Cejka 22 101 340
342 Rikuya Hoshino 20 100 343
343 Adrien Saddier 36 99 345
344 Greyson Sigg 8 99
345 Kyle Jones 17 99 344
346 Ryan Brehm 31 98 335
347 Bradley Dredge 19 98 348
348 KJ Choi 24 98 389
349 Ashley Chesters 41 97 346
350 John Catlin 37 97 347
351 Louis de Jager 36 97 350
352 Scott Hend 43 96 351
353 Seung-su Han 15 96 357
354 Bill Haas 37 96 349
355 Scott Vincent 34 96 352
356 Kristoffer Broberg 8 95 354
357 Justin Walters 48 95 353
358 Jacques Kruyswijk 29 95 355
359 James Morrison 45 94 356
360 Richard Bland 25 94 358
361 Gunn Charoenkul 13 94 359
362 Chad Campbell 18 91 361
363 Soren Kjeldsen 40 91 362
364 Ben Crane 14 90 364
365 Hiroyuki Fujita 17 90 365
366 Brendan Jones 11 89 366
367 Tomoharu Otsuki 22 88 368
368 Johnson Wagner 30 88 363
369 Craig Howie 12 86 370
370 Dominic Bozzelli 34 86 367
371 Rikard Karlberg 32 86 371
372 Lee Hodges 10 85 373
373 Curtis Luck 16 85 360
374 Zach Murray 19 85 374
375 Bernd Ritthammer 29 85 372
376 Anthony Quayle 11 84 380
377 Hideto Tanihara 26 83 376
378 Alejandro Canizares 38 82 378
379 John Chin 16 82 379
380 Sihwan Kim 31 82 377
381 Kelly Kraft 29 81 394
382 Matt Every 42 81 369
383 Kyung-tae Kim 13 81 385
384 Daniel van Tonder 11 81 382
385 Miguel Tabuena 8 81 381
386 Adrian Meronk 25 79 386
387 Kristoffer Reitan 28 79 383
388 Jaco van Zyl 16 78 390
389 Lucas Bjerregaard 41 78 375
390 Yuta Ikeda 19 77 392
391 Charlie Saxon 9 77 391
392 Oscar Lengden 14 77 393
393 Brandon Harkins 19 77 387
394 Thongchai Jaidee 13 76 384
395 Sadom Kaewkanjana 8 76 397
396 Maverick Antcliff 23 75 396
397 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 16 75 398
398 Mikumu Horikawa 24 75 399
399 Ryosuke Kinoshita 18 75 400
400 Dale Whitnell 24 74 401
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Valero Texas Open

March 29, 2021 Thomas Hawley ,

Tony Finau
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Tony Finau 43.6 79
2 Charley Hoffman 46.7 2
3 Scottie Scheffler 47.0 54
4 Corey Conners 47.2 14
5 Ryan Palmer 48.2 17
6 Abraham Ancer 51.4 23
7 Hideki Matsuyama 52.4 30
8 Brian Harman 52.6 DNP
9 Jordan Spieth 52.8 1
10 Cameron Tringale 57.0 9
11 Lanto Griffin 57.3 34
12 Brendan Steele 57.6 77
13 Chris Kirk 60.7 6
14 Sam Burns 61.1 104
15 Zach Johnson 61.8 79
16 Adam Hadwin 62.0 23
17 Matt Kuchar 62.2 12
18 Keegan Bradley 62.4 23
19 Charles Howell 62.8 104
20 Harold Varner 63.0 79
21 Andrew Putnam 63.5 94
22 Si Woo Kim 63.6 23
23 Erik Van Rooyen 64.4 14
24 Adam Long 65.1 79
25 Matt Wallace 65.4 3
26 Joel Dahmen 65.7 74
27 Cameron Davis 65.8 69
28 Ryan Moore 66.1 76
29 Sebastian Munoz 66.2 9
30 Matthew NeSmith 66.2 34
31 Byeong Hun An 66.2 130
32 Bernd Wiesberger 66.8 94
33 Rory Sabbatini 66.9 30
34 Branden Grace 66.9 23
35 Denny McCarthy 67.2 34
36 Gary Woodland 67.3 6
37 Jim Furyk 67.4 124
38 John Huh 67.5 69
39 Danny Willett 67.5 79
40 Lucas Glover 67.6 4
41 Tom Hoge 67.7 12
42 Rickie Fowler 67.7 17
43 Harry Higgs 67.7 79
44 Doug Ghim 67.8 44
45 Sepp Straka 67.9 67
46 Henrik Norlander 68.3 138
47 Nick Taylor 68.4 59
48 Brice Garnett 68.5 79
49 Martin Laird 68.5 30
50 Kevin Chappell 68.6 94
51 Peter Malnati 68.8 94
52 Patton Kizzire 68.9 9
53 Chase Seiffert 69.2 44
54 Jhonattan Vegas 69.3 79
55 Cameron Champ 69.3 34
56 Sam Ryder 69.5 137
57 Andrew Landry 69.5 94
58 Kyle Stanley 69.5 14
59 Doc Redman 69.6 44
60 Brandt Snedeker 69.7 6
61 Bo Hoag 69.8 79
62 Nate Lashley 70.0 79
63 Wesley Bryan 70.2 124
64 Phil Mickelson 70.3 94
65 Russell Knox 70.3 79
66 Rafa Cabrera Bello 70.4 44
67 Cameron Percy 70.4 138
68 Jerry Kelly 70.4 DNP
69 Aaron Wise 70.7 44
70 Scott Stallings 70.7 59
71 Will Gordon 70.8 78
72 Tom Lewis 70.8 54
73 Danny Lee 71.1 WD
74 Chesson Hadley 71.1 23
75 Roger Sloan 71.2 79
76 Vaughn Taylor 71.3 44
77 Charl Schwartzel 71.4 69
78 Brian Stuard 71.4 110
79 KH Lee 71.5 23
80 Patrick Rodgers 71.6 94
81 Adam Schenk 71.8 119
82 Luke List 71.8 17
83 Henrik Stenson 72.0 94
84 Jimmy Walker 72.0 59
85 Ryan Armour 72.1 79
86 Graeme McDowell 72.1 54
87 Camilo Villegas 72.2 17
88 Brandon Hagy 72.3 17
89 Robby Shelton 72.4 110
90 Troy Merritt 72.4 34
91 Keith Mitchell 72.6 17
92 Pat Perez 72.7 67
93 JB Holmes 72.8 124
94 Austin Eckroat 73.0 104
95 Bronson Burgoon 73.0 94
96 Sung Kang 73.2 59
97 David Hearn 73.2 110
98 Padraig Harrington 73.2 69
99 Brian Gay 73.3 124
100 Aaron Baddeley 73.3 DNP
101 Joseph Bramlett 73.3 34
102 Vincent Whaley 73.4 34
103 Jason Dufner 73.5 130
104 Tyler Duncan 73.6 44
105 Rob Oppenheim 73.7 110
106 Kramer Hickok 73.7 110
107 Michael Gligic 73.8 110
108 Xinjun Zhang 73.9 130
109 Austin Cook 73.9 94
110 Beau Hossler 74.0 69
111 Rafael Campos 74.0 34
112 Sean O’Hair 74.1 140
113 Hank Lebioda 74.2 110
114 Scott Brown 74.3 104
115 Kristoffer Ventura 74.4 75
116 Nick Watney 74.4 130
117 Seung-yul Noh 74.4 54
118 Tim Wilkinson 74.5 DNP
119 DJ Trahan 74.6 59
120 Akshay Bhatia 74.6 79
121 Scott Harrington 74.9 79
122 Ted Potter 75.1 140
123 Fabian Gomez 75.2 DNP
124 Ryan Brehm 75.2 124
125 Sebastian Cappelen 75.4 59
126 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 75.4 119
127 Anirban Lahiri 75.5 5
128 Grayson Murray 75.5 DNP
129 JJ Spaun 75.7 130
130 Davis Love 75.7 104
131 Chris Baker 75.9 DNP
132 Mark Anderson 76.0 DNP
133 KJ Choi 76.4 30
134 Luke Donald 76.4 119
135 Satoshi Kodaira 76.8 130
136 Nelson Ledesma 76.9 DNP
137 Kelly Kraft 76.9 44
138 Sam Bennett 77.1 124
139 Mac Meissner 77.1 119
140 Carlos Sainz 77.1 140
141 Ben Taylor 77.4 DNP
142 Bo Van Pelt 77.5 34
143 Rhein Gibson 77.6 119
144 Hunter Mahan 78.6 104
145 Martin Trainer 78.7 44
146 Michael Kim 78.8 110
147 DA Points 79.5 130
148 Kevin Stadler 79.6 54
Ben Martin late entry 41
Sam Fidone late entry 49
Greyson Sigg late entry 60
Tain Lee late entry 65
JJ Killeen late entry 114
Patrick Grimes late entry 143
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 237. The average is 138. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Mar. 28, 2021)

March 29, 2021 Thomas Hawley

Jon Rahm has been no. 1 for 10 weeks in a row.
# Thru Mar. 28, 2021 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Jon Rahm 43 1522 1
2 Justin Thomas 43 1351 2
3 Rory McIlroy 43 1333 3
4 Xander Schauffele 43 1256 4
5 Bryson DeChambeau 44 1213 5
6 Webb Simpson 39 1186 6
7 Dustin Johnson 36 1161 7
8 Patrick Cantlay 38 1126 8
9 Daniel Berger 42 1059 9
10 Patrick Reed 56 1014 10
11 Matthew Fitzpatrick 50 976 13
12 Tony Finau 53 975 12
13 Tyrrell Hatton 42 955 11
14 Hideki Matsuyama 51 910 14
15 Paul Casey 43 893 15
16 Brooks Koepka 37 870 18
17 Viktor Hovland 47 858 16
18 Collin Morikawa 44 854 17
19 Ryan Palmer 43 851 22
20 Tommy Fleetwood 47 844 24
21 Sungjae Im 63 838 19
22 Harris English 49 827 21
23 Abraham Ancer 52 825 23
24 Scottie Scheffler 43 824 29
25 Louis Oosthuizen 43 808 20
26 Billy Horschel 51 805 30
27 Adam Scott 34 792 25
28 Will Zalatoris 21 768 27
29 Jason Kokrak 48 756 26
30 Corey Conners 53 747 28
31 Cameron Smith 47 711 31
32 Jordan Spieth 44 699 33
33 Joaquin Niemann 52 695 32
34 Brian Harman 53 693 36
35 Tiger Woods 19 666 34
36 Kevin Kisner 49 663 37
37 Sergio Garcia 45 647 44
38 Jason Day 43 647 35
39 Max Homa 48 640 40
40 Lee Westwood 44 634 41
41 Russell Henley 45 623 39
42 Victor Perez 40 619 49
43 Lanto Griffin 46 614 38
44 Justin Rose 42 607 43
45 Kevin Na 46 601 42
46 Bubba Watson 43 590 50
47 Cameron Tringale 43 583 46
48 Ian Poulter 48 579 51
49 Shane Lowry 48 577 45
50 Talor Gooch 48 567 47
51 Matthew Wolff 41 562 48
52 Brendan Steele 43 547 55
53 Joel Dahmen 50 547 56
54 Byeong Hun An 49 540 52
55 Sam Burns 42 540 58
56 Francesco Molinari 28 538 54
57 Alex Noren 49 535 59
58 Carlos Ortiz 50 535 53
59 Brendon Todd 52 534 57
60 Gary Woodland 42 532 60
61 JT Poston 54 531 61
62 Marc Leishman 45 531 62
63 Erik Van Rooyen 50 529 69
64 Bud Cauley 33 520 63
65 Matt Kuchar 45 513 77
66 Rory Sabbatini 52 504 66
67 Dylan Frittelli 52 503 73
68 Charles Howell 48 499 65
69 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 46 499 64
70 Adam Hadwin 44 496 68
71 Robert MacIntyre 43 490 81
72 Charley Hoffman 50 487 67
73 Mac Hughes 49 485 82
74 Harold Varner 49 484 71
75 Zach Johnson 40 482 72
76 Kevin Streelman 50 479 79
77 Adam Long 55 477 75
78 Sebastian Munoz 55 475 70
79 Rickie Fowler 42 465 76
80 Si Woo Kim 55 460 74
81 James Hahn 25 455 80
82 Ryan Moore 32 451 78
83 Keegan Bradley 48 450 83
84 Matt Jones 53 449 85
85 Andrew Putnam 47 447 84
86 Bernd Wiesberger 44 437 86
87 Wyndham Clark 49 433 87
88 Matthew NeSmith 42 428 88
89 Danny Willett 47 425 89
90 Cameron Davis 49 419 92
91 Maverick McNealy 40 418 91
92 Chris Kirk 27 416 93
93 Matt Wallace 53 413 96
94 Tom Hoge 57 412 97
95 Brandt Snedeker 44 412 90
96 Cameron Champ 48 410 98
97 Thomas Pieters 37 409 95
98 Lucas Glover 50 408 94
99 Henrik Norlander 43 408 99
100 Chez Reavie 53 390 101
101 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 28 388 102
102 Martin Kaymer 39 385 103
103 Rafa Cabrera Bello 51 385 100
104 Doc Redman 42 379 104
105 Scott Piercy 42 373 106
106 Harry Higgs 41 372 107
107 Emiliano Grillo 51 370 109
108 Denny McCarthy 53 370 108
109 Richy Werenski 49 367 111
110 Kurt Kitayama 39 364 105
111 Sepp Straka 55 361 112
112 Matthias Schwab 45 357 110
113 Mark Hubbard 44 357 113
114 Paul Waring 34 352 116
115 Andrew Johnston 22 348 117
116 Tom Lewis 46 345 115
117 Vaughn Taylor 47 342 114
118 Russell Knox 52 341 118
119 Peter Malnati 50 337 120
120 Henrik Stenson 38 335 119
121 Michael Thompson 43 334 122
122 John Huh 20 334 124
123 Steve Stricker 21 333 123
124 Thomas Detry 46 330 125
125 Nate Lashley 49 329 121
126 Danny Lee 48 321 127
127 Nick Taylor 47 321 128
128 Wesley Bryan 11 319 129
129 Jonas Blixt 12 315 126
130 Doug Ghim 36 314 130
131 Stewart Cink 37 313 131
132 Brice Garnett 48 306 137
133 Phil Mickelson 39 304 135
134 Patrick Rodgers 49 304 132
135 Kyle Stanley 47 303 133
136 Andy Sullivan 43 302 134
137 Patton Kizzire 47 300 136
138 Marcus Kinhult 38 295 140
139 Andrew Landry 46 295 141
140 KH Lee 56 292 143
141 Chase Seiffert 35 290 146
142 Robby Shelton 43 290 138
143 CT Pan 49 290 142
144 Aaron Wise 41 285 145
145 Brian Stuard 55 284 139
146 Jim Furyk 29 283 144
147 Charl Schwartzel 31 283 148
148 Branden Grace 49 282 151
149 Adri Arnaus 43 282 150
150 Sung Kang 51 277 152
151 Luke List 49 276 147
152 Jhonattan Vegas 43 276 153
153 Antoine Rozner 28 275 181
154 Troy Merritt 56 274 149
155 Bo Hoag 42 274 156
156 Chesson Hadley 43 273 157
157 Will Gordon 29 268 155
158 Ryan Armour 49 268 158
159 Sam Ryder 50 265 167
160 Kalle Samooja 40 263 160
161 Graeme McDowell 48 261 165
162 Lucas Herbert 32 260 154
163 Keith Mitchell 48 260 161
164 Ryan Fox 38 259 162
165 Pat Perez 45 254 159
166 Zac Blair 31 254 166
167 Aaron Rai 42 249 163
168 Jeunghun Wang 27 248 172
169 Jason Scrivener 44 247 174
170 Adam Schenk 55 246 164
171 Benjamin Hebert 42 246 173
172 Cameron Percy 34 245 170
173 Martin Laird 39 244 171
174 Scott Stallings 45 242 175
175 Robert Streb 46 240 177
176 George Coetzee 38 237 169
177 Camilo Villegas 17 234 168
178 Justin Suh 18 234 179
179 Romain Langasque 42 233 176
180 Joost Luiten 48 232 182
181 David Lipsky 29 230 186
182 Scott Jamieson 40 230 185
183 JB Holmes 30 229 178
184 Xinjun Zhang 46 229 180
185 Eddie Pepperell 34 227 184
186 Tyler McCumber 37 226 191
187 Victor Dubuisson 26 225 188
188 Roger Sloan 45 222 190
189 Tyler Duncan 58 220 189
190 Brandon Hagy 36 219 187
191 Nick Watney 42 218 183
192 Ross Fisher 39 218 195
193 Shaun Norris 30 217 197
194 Mikko Korhonen 33 217 196
195 Bronson Burgoon 43 213 193
196 Laurie Canter 25 213 201
197 Gavin Green 42 213 192
198 Hudson Swafford 32 211 212
199 Kevin Tway 45 210 198
200 Sami Valimaki 24 209 203
201 Brian Gay 48 206 202
202 Beau Hossler 53 206 199
203 Rasmus Hojgaard 25 206 204
204 Joakim Lagergren 38 205 194
205 Sam Horsfield 40 204 205
206 Jordan Smith 45 203 200
207 Joseph Bramlett 36 202 211
208 Brandon Stone 42 202 207
209 Jack Singh Brar 29 201 209
210 Haotong Li 41 198 208
211 Kramer Hickok 44 197 210
212 Guido Migliozzi 41 193 206
213 Joachim B Hansen 45 193 214
214 Richard Sterne 26 191 216
215 Adam Svensson 18 191 215
216 Renato Paratore 46 186 222
217 Padraig Harrington 40 185 213
218 Austin Cook 46 185 220
219 Dawie van der Walt 9 184 227
220 Scott Brown 49 183 219
221 Matthew Jordan 24 182 223
222 Andrea Pavan 44 182 221
223 Hank Lebioda 46 180 217
224 Seamus Power 35 179 218
225 Josh Teater 38 178 224
226 Dean Burmester 47 178 226
227 Wade Ormsby 36 177 235
228 Hugo Leon 21 177 234
229 Wes Roach 36 175 229
230 Joey Garber 18 175 231
231 Richie Ramsay 43 175 225
232 Chris Paisley 43 175 228
233 Rob Oppenheim 40 174 230
234 Calum Hill 30 173 247
235 Carl Yuan 9 171 241
236 Fabrizio Zanotti 31 171 255
237 Jorge Campillo 44 171 233
238 Ben Martin 25 170 270
239 Zander Lombard 44 169 236
240 Justin Harding 49 169 243
241 Matthew Southgate 45 167 237
242 David Horsey 38 167 250
243 Callum Shinkwin 36 166 252
244 Fabian Gomez 46 165 238
245 Thorbjorn Olesen 21 164 248
246 Peter Uihlein 39 164 258
247 Michael Gligic 36 164 273
248 Ashun Wu 36 164 257
249 Jason Dufner 45 163 254
250 Alex Prugh 18 163 245
251 Roberto Diaz 21 163 253
252 Vincent Whaley 31 162 259
253 Masahiro Kawamura 49 162 256
254 Sean Crocker 41 162 260
255 Ted Potter 42 161 249
256 Shawn Stefani 30 161 232
257 Kristoffer Ventura 36 161 246
258 Jamie Donaldson 40 159 251
259 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 38 158 244
260 Kevin Chappell 24 158 263
261 Takumi Kanaya 15 157 264
262 Nino Bertasio 36 157 267
263 Jeff Winther 38 156 262
264 Roberto Castro 25 155 275
265 Stephan Jaeger 21 155 239
266 Sang-hyun Park 16 154 265
267 DJ Trahan 39 153 261
268 Brandon Wu 16 153 240
269 MJ Daffue 12 152 242
270 Chris Stroud 35 150 269
271 David Hearn 43 149 282
272 Akshay Bhatia 12 148 271
273 Marc Warren 31 146 278
274 Scott Harrington 41 145 268
275 Alexander Bjork 38 145 276
276 Tim Wilkinson 31 145 277
277 Marcus Armitage 27 143 284
278 Billy Hurley 14 143 274
279 Robert Rock 31 142 281
280 Shubhankar Sharma 47 140 280
281 Boo Weekley 15 138 286
282 Miguel Angel Jimenez 14 138 266
283 Grant Forrest 44 138 279
284 Sebastian Soderberg 41 137 283
285 Jazz Janewattananond 40 136 294
286 Cody Gribble 16 136 288
287 Jim Herman 42 136 290
288 Zack Sucher 32 136 272
289 Pablo Larrazabal 42 135 289
290 Jung-gon Hwang 13 135 291
291 Niklas Lemke 39 134 293
292 Grayson Murray 29 133 287
293 Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 16 131 285
294 Chan Kim 21 131 297
295 Brad Kennedy 14 131 300
296 Andres Romero 21 130 299
297 Jimmy Walker 41 128 298
298 Connor Syme 29 128 292
299 Sebastian Cappelen 34 127 303
300 Matthieu Pavon 47 126 302
301 Aaron Baddeley 35 126 296
302 Hennie du Plessis 8 124 306
303 Nicolas Colsaerts 41 124 309
304 Shugo Imahira 28 123 307
305 Johannes Veerman 33 123 301
306 Sam Saunders 17 121 305
307 George McNeill 21 119 295
308 Garrick Higgo 21 119 304
309 Anirban Lahiri 38 117 313
310 Wil Besseling 26 117 308
311 Jayden Trey Schaper 10 116 315
312 Stephen Gallacher 33 116 321
313 Sean O’Hair 12 116 318
314 Mark Anderson 32 115 314
315 Jonathan Byrd 31 115 310
316 Chase Wright 17 115 316
317 Francesco Laporta 24 114 311
318 Steven Brown 47 114 319
319 Joohyung Kim 9 113 324
320 Seung-yul Noh 14 113 325
321 JJ Spaun 44 112 312
322 Kyung-nam Kang 12 111 331
323 Wilco Nienaber 30 111 317
324 Adrian Otaegui 47 110 323
325 Chris Baker 33 110 320
326 Luke Donald 36 108 322
327 Rafael Campos 23 108 399
328 Sebastian Heisele 19 108 332
329 Jack Senior 33 107 330
330 Lorenzo Gagli 44 107 328
331 Travis Smyth 11 107 333
332 Alexander Levy 43 106 329
333 Edoardo Molinari 41 105 326
334 Jamie Arnold 8 104 341
335 Ryan Brehm 30 104 340
336 Ricky Barnes 23 104 327
337 Ollie Schniederjans 23 104 335
338 Min Woo Lee 30 103 338
339 Darren Fichardt 27 102 360
340 Alex Cejka 22 101 334
341 Tom Lovelady 8 101 352
342 Nacho Elvira 42 100 346
343 Rikuya Hoshino 20 100 344
344 Kyle Jones 17 99 345
345 Adrien Saddier 36 99 336
346 Ashley Chesters 41 98 354
347 John Catlin 37 98 339
348 Bradley Dredge 19 97 353
349 Bill Haas 37 97 337
350 Louis de Jager 36 97 356
351 Scott Hend 43 96 350
352 Scott Vincent 34 96 349
353 Justin Walters 48 96 355
354 Kristoffer Broberg 8 95 362
355 Jacques Kruyswijk 29 95 378
356 James Morrison 45 95 357
357 Seung-su Han 15 94 363
358 Richard Bland 25 94 343
359 Gunn Charoenkul 13 93 364
360 Curtis Luck 16 92 351
361 Chad Campbell 18 92 365
362 Soren Kjeldsen 40 91 359
363 Johnson Wagner 30 90 347
364 Ben Crane 14 90 372
365 Hiroyuki Fujita 17 90 370
366 Brendan Jones 11 89 371
367 Dominic Bozzelli 34 87 361
368 Tomoharu Otsuki 22 87 375
369 Matt Every 42 87 358
370 Craig Howie 12 86 348
371 Rikard Karlberg 32 86 367
372 Bernd Ritthammer 29 85 366
373 Lee Hodges 10 85 342
374 Zach Murray 19 83 382
375 Lucas Bjerregaard 42 83 369
376 Hideto Tanihara 26 83 379
377 Sihwan Kim 31 83 373
378 Alejandro Canizares 38 83 383
379 John Chin 16 82 380
380 Anthony Quayle 11 82 384
381 Miguel Tabuena 8 81 386
382 Daniel van Tonder 11 80 487
383 Kristoffer Reitan 28 80 391
384 Thongchai Jaidee 13 80 381
385 Kyung-tae Kim 13 80 390
386 Adrian Meronk 25 79 377
387 Brandon Harkins 19 79 385
388 Trey Mullinax 13 79 368
389 KJ Choi 23 79 374
390 Jaco van Zyl 16 78 389
391 Charlie Saxon 9 78 393
392 Yuta Ikeda 19 77 394
393 Oscar Lengden 14 77 395
394 Kelly Kraft 28 77 376
395 Tyrone van Aswegen 11 75 392
396 Maverick Antcliff 23 75 388
397 Sadom Kaewkanjana 8 75 401
398 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 16 75 423
399 Mikumu Horikawa 24 75 400
400 Ryosuke Kinoshita 18 74 405
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play

March 22, 2021 Thomas Hawley , ,

Jon Rahm
Pick Player Match +/- Course fit Rating number
1 Jon Rahm 1 1.09 2.098
2 Bryson DeChambeau -1 0.98 2.019
3 Justin Thomas 10 1.02 1.955
4 Dustin Johnson 8 1.02 1.951
5 Viktor Hovland 0 0.92 1.927
6 Xander Schauffele 0 0.82 1.926
7 Daniel Berger 4 0.98 1.911
8 Tony Finau -3 0.91 1.859
9 Paul Casey -4 0.93 1.848
10 Matthew Fitzpatrick 0 1.12 1.843
11 Rory McIlroy 0 1.01 1.842
12 Corey Conners 0 1.24 1.837
13 Patrick Cantlay 0 0.99 1.832
14 Webb Simpson 0 0.92 1.824
15 Patrick Reed -1 0.98 1.816
16 Scottie Scheffler 0 1.07 1.799
17 Collin Morikawa -6 0.97 1.777
18 Sergio Garcia -2 1.13 1.760
19 Harris English 6 1.14 1.752
20 Tyrrell Hatton 1 0.90 1.747
21 Jason Kokrak 2 1.05 1.716
22 Louis Oosthuizen 0 0.95 1.705
23 Brian Harman 0 1.01 1.689
24 Russell Henley 0 0.98 1.687
25 Joaquin Niemann -2 1.05 1.685
26 Lanto Griffin -1 1.19 1.683
27 Sungjae Im -1 1.10 1.659
28 Brendan Steele 0 1.06 1.657
29 Lee Westwood 1 1.27 1.651
30 Jordan Spieth 0 0.96 1.638
31 Cameron Smith 0 0.88 1.633
32 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 3 1.02 1.632
33 Si Woo Kim 0 1.12 1.632
34 Chris Kirk 0 1.14 1.610
35 Abraham Ancer -2 1.02 1.606
36 Ryan Palmer 0 1.12 1.604
37 Max Homa 63.4 0.95 1.599
38 Kevin Kisner 63.6 1.18 1.599
39 Hideki Matsuyama 64.1 1.16 1.593
40 Kevin Na 64.6 1.08 1.592
41 Matt Kuchar 64.6 1.03 1.590
42 Jason Day 65.0 1.18 1.576
43 Mac Hughes 65.1 1.33 1.569
44 Talor Gooch 65.1 1.11 1.565
45 Ian Poulter 65.3 1.13 1.565
46 Brendon Todd 65.4 0.95 1.564
47 Andy Sullivan 65.7 0.98 1.553
48 Tommy Fleetwood 65.8 1.23 1.545
49 Victor Perez 66.3 1.12 1.545
50 Antoine Rozner 66.3 1.30 1.544
51 Carlos Ortiz 66.8 1.18 1.541
52 Will Zalatoris 67.0 1.01 1.539
53 Thomas Pieters 67.2 0.83 1.534
54 Billy Horschel 67.2 1.09 1.519
55 Shane Lowry 67.3 1.26 1.510
56 Matt Wallace 67.3 1.12 1.507
57 Bubba Watson 67.4 1.26 1.506
58 Thomas Detry 67.7 1.07 1.504
59 Branden Grace 68.0 1.15 1.503
60 Lucas Herbert 68.1 1.00 1.488
61 Robert MacIntyre 68.2 1.30 1.485
62 Aaron Rai 68.3 1.01 1.484
63 Bernd Wiesberger 68.4 1.19 1.477
64 Kevin Streelman 68.4 1.23 1.477
65 Dylan Frittelli 68.4 1.11 1.466
66 JT Poston 68.8 0.95 1.462
67 Marc Leishman 69.0 1.06 1.461
68 Adam Long 69.0 1.09 1.438
69 Sebastian Munoz 69.1 1.08 1.429
70 Danny Willett 69.4 1.11 1.413
71 Matthew Wolff 69.4 1.17 1.400
72 Joel Dahmen 69.4 1.29 1.397
73 Chez Reavie 69.7 1.15 1.379
74 Erik Van Rooyen 69.8 0.99 1.369
More | Less

Players are listed in order of preference. Match +/- is the player’s record above or below .500 in U.S./ Euro match play events in the last eight years. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events. (Higher is better.)Ratings number is a number summarizing the player’s strength vs. the field in a broad set of statistics.

Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship

March 22, 2021 Thomas Hawley ,

Charley Hoffman
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Charley Hoffman 55.0 34
2 Joel Dahmen 59.4 1
3 Charles Howell 60.3 28
4 Thomas Pieters 62.8 13
5 Kelly Kraft 63.3 108
6 Emiliano Grillo 63.8 6
7 Tyler McCumber 64.3 18
8 Brice Garnett 64.3 9
9 Thomas Detry 64.6 13
10 Sepp Straka 65.3 9
11 Nate Lashley 65.4 28
12 Danny Willett 65.5 8
13 Lucas Herbert 67.0 114
14 Jhonattan Vegas 67.1 18
15 Rafa Cabrera Bello 67.4 114
16 Tom Lewis 67.6 56
17 Patrick Rodgers 68.0 43
18 Will Gordon 68.2 34
19 Chase Seiffert 68.4 18
20 Justin Suh 68.5 28
21 Adam Schenk 68.6 56
22 Hudson Swafford 69.3 6
23 Charl Schwartzel 69.4 DNP
24 Luke List 69.4 WD
25 Vaughn Taylor 69.5 WD
26 Roger Sloan 69.6 22
27 Brandon Hagy 69.7 88
28 Troy Merritt 69.8 34
29 Pat Perez 69.9 48
30 Graeme McDowell 70.0 4
31 Fabrizio Zanotti 70.0 22
32 Chesson Hadley 70.2 13
33 Sam Ryder 70.3 2
34 Brian Stuard 70.5 69
35 Robby Shelton 70.6 43
36 Camilo Villegas 70.9 108
37 George McNeill 71.0 72
38 Seamus Power 71.1 54
39 JB Holmes 71.2 96
40 Rob Oppenheim 71.2 120
41 Hank Lebioda 71.2 96
42 Jonathan Byrd 71.3 63
43 Tyler Duncan 71.3 48
44 Bronson Burgoon 71.3 28
45 Beau Hossler 71.4 108
46 David Hearn 71.4 13
47 Xinjun Zhang 71.6 96
48 Padraig Harrington 71.6 56
49 DJ Trahan 71.7 52
50 Josh Teater 71.8 34
51 Kristoffer Ventura 71.9 88
52 Joseph Bramlett 72.0 13
53 Fabian Gomez 72.0 56
54 Vincent Whaley 72.1 28
55 Scott Harrington 72.2 63
56 Scott Brown 72.3 43
57 Michael Gligic 72.5 4
58 Tim Wilkinson 72.8 34
59 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 72.8 79
60 Ryan Brehm 72.8 34
61 Sebastian Cappelen 72.9 34
62 Grayson Murray 73.0 69
63 Nick Watney 73.0 88
64 Ben Martin 73.1 9
65 Wes Roach 73.1 34
66 MJ Daffue 73.3 72
67 Rafael Campos 73.5 2
68 Johnson Wagner 73.5 79
69 Aaron Baddeley 73.5 48
70 Andy Ogletree 73.6 96
71 Bill Haas 73.6 72
72 Ted Potter 73.6 88
73 Peter Uihlein 73.8 22
74 Retief Goosen 73.9 56
75 JJ Spaun 74.0 67
76 Ricky Barnes 74.0 72
77 Zack Sucher 74.0 88
78 Stephan Jaeger 74.1 48
79 Miguel Angel Jimenez 74.1 116
80 Chris Baker 74.1 96
81 Matt Every 74.3 124
82 Roberto Castro 74.3 18
83 Mark Anderson 74.7 43
84 Shawn Stefani 74.8 79
85 Satoshi Kodaira 74.9 79
86 Nelson Ledesma 75.1 79
87 Bo Van Pelt 75.2 56
88 Ben Taylor 75.2 54
89 Ryan Blaum 75.2 79
90 Hunter Mahan 75.2 124
91 Luke Donald 75.5 72
92 Greg Chalmers 75.6 96
93 Dominic Bozzelli 75.6 127
94 KJ Choi 75.6 79
95 Rhein Gibson 75.8 63
96 John Merrick 76.4 79
97 Martin Trainer 76.4 56
98 Michael Kim 76.5 96
99 Alex Smalley 76.6 22
100 Andres Romero 76.7 DNP
101 Jason Gore 76.7 DNP
102 Michael Gellerman 76.8 96
103 Alex Cejka 76.9 43
104 Freddie Jacobson 77.0 DNP
105 Sangmoon Bae 77.0 67
106 David Lingmerth 77.0 28
107 Daniel Chopra 77.2 120
108 Dicky Pride 77.2 96
109 Taylor Pendrith 77.2 34
110 Brandon Wu 77.4 96
111 Davis Love 77.5 116
112 Chris Couch 77.6 DNP
113 JJ Henry 77.7 72
114 Carl Pettersson 77.9 122
115 Charlie Beljan 78.0 DNP
116 John Senden 78.0 88
117 Arjun Atwal 78.0 88
118 Lee Hodges 78.1 63
119 Parker McLachlin 78.1 71
120 Eric Axley 78.2 DNP
121 Brendon de Jonge 78.2 WD
122 Omar Uresti 78.2 116
123 Robert Garrigus 78.5 88
124 Andrew Yun 78.5 22
125 Robert Allenby 78.5 DNP
126 John Rollins 78.6 79
127 Greyson Sigg 78.6 9
128 Paul Barjon 78.8 108
129 Ted Purdy 78.8 108
130 Eric Cole 78.8 22
131 Alex Beach 78.8 116
132 Cledy Cordoba 78.8 124
133 Juan Jose Guerra 78.8 72
134 Mark Hensby 78.8 DNP
135 Richard S Johnson 78.8 52
136 Justin McCarraher 78.8 129
137 Rhadames Pena 78.8 122
138 Willy Pumarol 78.8 96
139 Manuel Relancio 78.8 127
140 Hiram Silfa 78.8 96
141 Chris Wiatr 78.8 108
142 Carlos Franco 78.8 DNP
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 226. The average is 139. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Kenya Savannah Classic supported by Absa 2021

March 22, 2021 Thomas Hawley ,
Kurt Kitayama
Kurt Kitayama
Pick Player Finish Estimate Observed Odds Course fit
1 Kurt Kitayama 65.2 30-1
2 Aaron Rai 69.7 70-1
3 George Coetzee 69.9 70-1
4 Jamie Donaldson 70.5 75-1
5 Matthias Schwab 70.6 80-1
6 Victor Dubuisson 70.8 80-1
7 Dean Burmester 71.0 85-1
8 Calum Hill 71.5 95-1
9 Romain Langasque 72.0 100-1
10 Johannes Veerman 72.1 100-1
11 Justin Harding 72.1 100-1
12 Guido Migliozzi 72.2 100-1
13 Marcus Armitage 72.6 100-1
14 Connor Syme 72.8 100-1
15 Chris Paisley 72.8 100-1
16 Grant Forrest 72.9 100-1
17 Joost Luiten 73.0 100-1
18 Niklas Lemke 73.0 100-1
19 Gavin Green 73.1 100-1
20 Jordan Smith 73.2 100-1
21 Joakim Lagergren 73.2 100-1
22 Sam Horsfield 73.4 100-1
23 Adrian Otaegui 73.5 100-1
24 Wil Besseling 73.5 100-1
25 Scott Vincent 73.6 100-1
26 Wilco Nienaber 73.7 100-1
27 Nino Bertasio 74.0 100-1
28 Richard Bland 74.0 100-1
29 Darren Fichardt 74.0 100-1
30 Matthew Southgate 74.1 100-1
31 Masahiro Kawamura 74.1 100-1
32 Louis de Jager 74.3 100-1
33 Pep Angles 74.4 150-1
34 Matthieu Pavon 74.4 150-1
35 Steven Brown 74.5 150-1
36 Richie Ramsay 74.5 150-1
37 Jack Senior 74.5 150-1
38 Alexander Levy 74.5 150-1
39 John Catlin 74.6 150-1
40 Bernd Ritthammer 74.7 150-1
41 Soren Kjeldsen 74.8 150-1
42 Rikard Karlberg 74.9 150-1
43 Sihwan Kim 74.9 150-1
44 Adrian Meronk 75.0 150-1
45 James Morrison 75.0 150-1
46 Jorge Campillo 75.0 150-1
47 Maverick Antcliff 75.1 150-1
48 Jose-Filipe Lima 75.1 150-1
49 Maximilian Kieffer 75.1 150-1
50 Cormac Sharvin 75.2 150-1
51 Jazz Janewattananond 75.2 150-1
52 Jacques Kruyswijk 75.2 150-1
53 Shubhankar Sharma 75.3 150-1
54 Gaganjeet Bhullar 75.3 150-1
55 Zander Lombard 75.3 150-1
56 Francesco Laporta 75.4 150-1
57 Romain Wattel 75.4 150-1
58 Lorenzo Gagli 75.4 150-1
59 Adrien Saddier 75.5 150-1
60 Kristoffer Reitan 75.5 150-1
61 Scott Hend 75.5 150-1
62 Sebastian Soderberg 75.5 150-1
63 Clement Sordet 75.5 150-1
64 Aaron Cockerill 75.5 150-1
65 Richard McEvoy 75.5 150-1
66 Garrick Higgo 75.6 150-1
67 Matthew Baldwin 75.6 150-1
68 Julien Guerrier 75.6 150-1
69 Dale Whitnell 75.6 150-1
70 Ewen Ferguson 75.7 150-1
71 Damien Perrier 75.8 150-1
72 Max Schmitt 75.8 150-1
73 Ashley Chesters 75.9 150-1
74 Darius van Driel 75.9 150-1
75 Julian Suri 75.9 150-1
76 Oliver Farr 75.9 150-1
77 Alejandro Canizares 75.9 150-1
78 JC Ritchie 75.9 150-1
79 Jens Fahrbring 75.9 150-1
80 Ben Evans 75.9 150-1
81 Martin Simonsen 76.0 150-1
82 Craig Howie 76.0 150-1
83 Yi Keun Chang 76.0 150-1
84 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 76.0 150-1
85 David Drysdale 76.0 150-1
86 SSP Chawrasia 76.0 150-1
87 Liam Johnston 76.1 150-1
88 Garrick Porteous 76.1 150-1
89 Lars van Meijel 76.1 150-1
90 Matt Ford 76.1 150-1
91 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 76.2 150-1
92 Edoardo Molinari 76.2 150-1
93 Daan Huizing 76.3 150-1
94 Pedro Figueiredo 76.3 150-1
95 Jayden Trey Schaper 76.3 150-1
96 Lorenzo Scalise 76.3 150-1
97 Marcel Schneider 76.3 150-1
98 Nicolai Hojgaard 76.4 150-1
99 Toby Tree 76.4 150-1
100 Ricardo Santos 76.5 150-1
101 Oliver Wilson 76.5 150-1
102 Tapio Pulkkanen 76.5 150-1
103 Alvaro Quiros 76.5 150-1
104 Joel Stalter 76.6 150-1
105 Daniel van Tonder 76.6 150-1
106 Lucas Bjerregaard 76.6 150-1
107 Lee Slattery 76.6 150-1
108 David Law 76.6 150-1
109 Jonathan Caldwell 76.6 150-1
110 Hurly Long 76.6 150-1
111 Dave Coupland 76.7 150-1
112 Gavin Moynihan 76.7 150-1
113 Oliver Fisher 76.7 150-1
114 Ross McGowan 76.7 150-1
115 Tae-hee Lee 76.7 150-1
116 Rhys Enoch 76.7 150-1
117 Ondrej Lieser 76.7 150-1
118 Emilio Cuartero Blanco 76.7 150-1
119 Anton Karlsson 76.7 150-1
120 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 76.8 150-1
121 David Howell 76.8 150-1
122 Carlos Pigem 76.8 150-1
123 Robin Roussel 76.8 150-1
124 Thriston Lawrence 76.9 150-1
125 Robin Sciot-Siegrist 76.9 150-1
126 Richard Mansell 76.9 150-1
127 Kyong-jun Moon 76.9 150-1
128 Benjamin Poke 76.9 150-1
129 Haydn Porteous 77.0 150-1
130 Eirik Tage Johansen 77.0 150-1
131 Daniel Young 77.0 150-1
132 Mathiam Keyser 77.0 150-1
133 Phillip Kasozi 77.0 150-1
134 Andrew Odoh 77.0 150-1
135 Robson Chinhoi 77.0 150-1
136 Mohit Mediratta 77.0 150-1
137 Michael Karanga 77.0 150-1
138 Adel Balala 77.0 150-1
139 Taimur Malik 77.0 150-1
140 Jaydeep Singh Sandhu 77.0 150-1
141 Isaac Ogolla Makokha 77.0 150-1
142 Njoroge Njonge Kibugu 77.0 150-1
143 Mathew Omondi 77.0 150-1
144 Edwin Inana Asuza 77.0 150-1
145 Riz Charania 77.0 150-1
146 CJ Wangai 77.0 150-1
147 Samuel Njoroge Chege 77.0 150-1
148 Deo Akope 77.0 150-1
149 Simon Ngige Mburu 77.0 150-1
150 Greg Snow 77.0 150-1
151 Dismas Indiza Anyonyi 77.0 150-1
152 Jastas Madoya Asena 77.0 150-1
153 David Wakhu 77.0 150-1
154 Ooko Erick Obura 77.0 150-1
155 Tyler Koivisto 77.0 150-1
More | Less

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Mar. 21, 2021)

March 22, 2021 Thomas Hawley

Jon Rahm has been no. 1 for nine weeks in a row.
# Thru Mar. 21, 2021 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Jon Rahm 42 1517 1
2 Justin Thomas 42 1402 2
3 Rory McIlroy 42 1369 3
4 Xander Schauffele 42 1269 4
5 Bryson DeChambeau 43 1251 5
6 Webb Simpson 38 1222 6
7 Dustin Johnson 35 1195 7
8 Patrick Cantlay 37 1141 8
9 Daniel Berger 42 1052 9
10 Patrick Reed 55 1032 10
11 Tyrrell Hatton 41 992 11
12 Tony Finau 53 988 12
13 Matthew Fitzpatrick 49 973 13
14 Hideki Matsuyama 50 938 14
15 Paul Casey 42 908 15
16 Viktor Hovland 46 884 17
17 Collin Morikawa 43 884 18
18 Brooks Koepka 37 882 16
19 Sungjae Im 63 854 20
20 Louis Oosthuizen 42 849 19
21 Harris English 49 845 21
22 Ryan Palmer 43 840 22
23 Abraham Ancer 52 816 23
24 Tommy Fleetwood 46 807 24
25 Adam Scott 34 801 25
26 Jason Kokrak 48 781 26
27 Will Zalatoris 20 777 28
28 Corey Conners 53 776 27
29 Scottie Scheffler 43 774 29
30 Billy Horschel 51 759 30
31 Cameron Smith 46 716 31
32 Joaquin Niemann 52 688 32
33 Jordan Spieth 44 685 33
34 Tiger Woods 19 672 34
35 Jason Day 42 664 35
36 Brian Harman 53 659 36
37 Kevin Kisner 48 653 37
38 Lanto Griffin 45 637 39
39 Russell Henley 45 622 46
40 Max Homa 48 621 42
41 Lee Westwood 43 617 38
42 Kevin Na 45 617 41
43 Justin Rose 42 615 40
44 Sergio Garcia 44 604 44
45 Shane Lowry 47 596 43
46 Cameron Tringale 44 587 48
47 Talor Gooch 47 585 45
48 Matthew Wolff 40 564 50
49 Victor Perez 39 560 52
50 Bubba Watson 42 560 51
51 Ian Poulter 47 550 47
52 Byeong Hun An 50 545 49
53 Carlos Ortiz 50 544 56
54 Francesco Molinari 28 543 54
55 Brendan Steele 44 542 68
56 Joel Dahmen 50 541 59
57 Brendon Todd 51 541 61
58 Sam Burns 43 540 57
59 Alex Noren 49 536 53
60 Gary Woodland 42 534 58
61 JT Poston 54 530 55
62 Marc Leishman 44 530 62
63 Bud Cauley 34 521 63
64 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 45 515 66
65 Charles Howell 47 514 65
66 Rory Sabbatini 53 512 60
67 Charley Hoffman 50 504 67
68 Adam Hadwin 44 499 77
69 Erik Van Rooyen 49 496 64
70 Sebastian Munoz 55 493 70
71 Harold Varner 50 485 75
72 Zach Johnson 40 482 85
73 Dylan Frittelli 52 476 71
74 Si Woo Kim 55 475 76
75 Adam Long 55 472 73
76 Rickie Fowler 43 470 69
77 Matt Kuchar 45 460 78
78 Ryan Moore 33 458 72
79 Kevin Streelman 50 455 79
80 James Hahn 25 455 74
81 Robert MacIntyre 42 453 83
82 Mac Hughes 49 452 80
83 Keegan Bradley 48 451 84
84 Andrew Putnam 48 449 81
85 Matt Jones 54 449 97
86 Bernd Wiesberger 43 448 86
87 Wyndham Clark 50 436 82
88 Matthew NeSmith 42 427 87
89 Danny Willett 46 427 88
90 Brandt Snedeker 44 418 91
91 Maverick McNealy 40 417 89
92 Cameron Davis 50 416 94
93 Chris Kirk 28 414 100
94 Lucas Glover 51 413 101
95 Thomas Pieters 36 411 98
96 Matt Wallace 52 411 90
97 Tom Hoge 58 410 93
98 Cameron Champ 48 408 102
99 Henrik Norlander 43 405 95
100 Rafa Cabrera Bello 50 401 92
101 Chez Reavie 53 395 96
102 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 28 392 103
103 Martin Kaymer 40 387 99
104 Doc Redman 42 382 104
105 Kurt Kitayama 38 381 105
106 Scott Piercy 42 377 106
107 Harry Higgs 41 373 115
108 Denny McCarthy 54 371 122
109 Emiliano Grillo 50 368 111
110 Matthias Schwab 44 364 107
111 Richy Werenski 50 363 108
112 Sepp Straka 55 359 114
113 Mark Hubbard 44 357 112
114 Vaughn Taylor 47 357 109
115 Tom Lewis 45 357 116
116 Paul Waring 34 354 120
117 Andrew Johnston 22 352 119
118 Russell Knox 52 344 118
119 Henrik Stenson 38 343 110
120 Peter Malnati 51 341 117
121 Nate Lashley 48 337 121
122 Michael Thompson 43 334 128
123 Steve Stricker 21 333 144
124 John Huh 20 333 137
125 Thomas Detry 45 329 126
126 Jonas Blixt 13 326 123
127 Danny Lee 49 325 127
128 Nick Taylor 48 322 124
129 Wesley Bryan 11 319 113
130 Doug Ghim 36 315 125
131 Stewart Cink 37 315 139
132 Patrick Rodgers 48 309 130
133 Kyle Stanley 48 306 133
134 Andy Sullivan 42 305 136
135 Phil Mickelson 39 302 146
136 Patton Kizzire 47 301 131
137 Brice Garnett 47 301 143
138 Robby Shelton 42 299 134
139 Brian Stuard 55 298 132
140 Marcus Kinhult 38 296 141
141 Andrew Landry 47 296 135
142 CT Pan 50 293 166
143 KH Lee 57 292 138
144 Jim Furyk 30 289 129
145 Aaron Wise 41 289 161
146 Chase Seiffert 34 287 182
147 Luke List 49 286 140
148 Charl Schwartzel 31 282 145
149 Troy Merritt 55 282 142
150 Adri Arnaus 43 282 150
151 Branden Grace 49 279 152
152 Sung Kang 52 278 147
153 Jhonattan Vegas 43 276 156
154 Lucas Herbert 31 275 149
155 Will Gordon 28 274 154
156 Bo Hoag 42 272 151
157 Chesson Hadley 43 270 148
158 Ryan Armour 50 267 153
159 Pat Perez 44 265 155
160 Kalle Samooja 40 263 158
161 Keith Mitchell 48 259 160
162 Ryan Fox 38 258 164
163 Aaron Rai 41 258 159
164 Adam Schenk 55 258 163
165 Graeme McDowell 48 255 157
166 Zac Blair 31 253 169
167 Sam Ryder 50 253 191
168 Camilo Villegas 16 252 240
169 George Coetzee 37 248 167
170 Cameron Percy 34 248 162
171 Martin Laird 40 248 170
172 Jeunghun Wang 27 247 173
173 Benjamin Hebert 42 246 165
174 Jason Scrivener 44 245 174
175 Scott Stallings 46 243 168
176 Romain Langasque 41 242 175
177 Robert Streb 47 241 198
178 JB Holmes 30 241 171
179 Justin Suh 17 240 177
180 Xinjun Zhang 45 238 172
181 Antoine Rozner 27 234 180
182 Joost Luiten 48 233 176
183 Nick Watney 42 232 178
184 Eddie Pepperell 34 232 179
185 Scott Jamieson 40 228 187
186 David Lipsky 29 227 188
187 Brandon Hagy 36 227 258
188 Victor Dubuisson 25 225 181
189 Tyler Duncan 58 225 183
190 Roger Sloan 45 224 196
191 Tyler McCumber 36 224 192
192 Gavin Green 41 223 184
193 Bronson Burgoon 42 217 186
194 Joakim Lagergren 37 217 185
195 Ross Fisher 39 216 197
196 Mikko Korhonen 33 216 194
197 Shaun Norris 30 216 199
198 Kevin Tway 46 214 193
199 Beau Hossler 53 214 190
200 Jordan Smith 44 213 189
201 Laurie Canter 25 212 201
202 Brian Gay 49 210 195
203 Sami Valimaki 24 209 202
204 Rasmus Hojgaard 25 205 203
205 Sam Horsfield 39 203 204
206 Guido Migliozzi 40 202 207
207 Brandon Stone 42 202 210
208 Haotong Li 42 201 200
209 Jack Singh Brar 29 199 214
210 Kramer Hickok 45 198 213
211 Joseph Bramlett 35 195 205
212 Hudson Swafford 32 195 206
213 Padraig Harrington 40 193 209
214 Joachim B Hansen 45 193 212
215 Adam Svensson 19 193 220
216 Richard Sterne 26 192 218
217 Hank Lebioda 46 192 208
218 Seamus Power 35 192 216
219 Scott Brown 49 191 211
220 Austin Cook 47 187 215
221 Andrea Pavan 44 187 222
222 Renato Paratore 46 186 226
223 Matthew Jordan 24 184 225
224 Josh Teater 38 184 227
225 Richie Ramsay 42 184 219
226 Dean Burmester 46 184 235
227 Dawie van der Walt 9 184 234
228 Chris Paisley 42 182 221
229 Wes Roach 35 182 228
230 Rob Oppenheim 39 180 223
231 Joey Garber 18 180 233
232 Shawn Stefani 30 179 231
233 Jorge Campillo 43 179 224
234 Hugo Leon 21 179 236
235 Wade Ormsby 36 178 237
236 Zander Lombard 43 176 230
237 Matthew Southgate 44 175 229
238 Fabian Gomez 46 174 243
239 Stephan Jaeger 21 173 239
240 Brandon Wu 15 172 217
241 Carl Yuan 9 172 254
242 MJ Daffue 11 171 246
243 Justin Harding 49 171 248
244 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 37 170 232
245 Alex Prugh 19 170 241
246 Kristoffer Ventura 36 169 238
247 Calum Hill 29 169 253
248 Thorbjorn Olesen 21 169 244
249 Ted Potter 42 169 242
250 David Horsey 38 167 252
251 Jamie Donaldson 39 167 251
252 Callum Shinkwin 36 167 250
253 Roberto Diaz 22 166 247
254 Jason Dufner 45 166 245
255 Fabrizio Zanotti 30 165 256
256 Masahiro Kawamura 48 162 249
257 Ashun Wu 36 162 260
258 Peter Uihlein 39 162 257
259 Vincent Whaley 30 162 266
260 Sean Crocker 41 161 259
261 DJ Trahan 39 159 255
262 Jeff Winther 38 157 262
263 Kevin Chappell 24 157 345
264 Takumi Kanaya 15 157 267
265 Sang-hyun Park 16 156 261
266 Miguel Angel Jimenez 13 156 264
267 Nino Bertasio 35 156 265
268 Scott Harrington 40 152 263
269 Chris Stroud 36 150 269
270 Ben Martin 24 150 274
271 Akshay Bhatia 12 149 273
272 Zack Sucher 31 148 270
273 Michael Gligic 35 147 268
274 Billy Hurley 14 147 275
275 Roberto Castro 25 146 272
276 Alexander Bjork 38 145 281
277 Tim Wilkinson 30 144 284
278 Marc Warren 31 144 285
279 Grant Forrest 43 144 280
280 Shubhankar Sharma 46 143 276
281 Robert Rock 31 143 282
282 David Hearn 42 142 271
283 Sebastian Soderberg 40 141 277
284 Marcus Armitage 26 141 278
285 Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 17 140 283
286 Boo Weekley 15 140 287
287 Grayson Murray 29 139 279
288 Cody Gribble 17 137 290
289 Pablo Larrazabal 42 136 292
290 Jim Herman 43 135 288
291 Jung-gon Hwang 13 134 294
292 Connor Syme 28 134 306
293 Niklas Lemke 38 133 291
294 Jazz Janewattananond 39 133 286
295 George McNeill 21 131 293
296 Aaron Baddeley 35 131 295
297 Chan Kim 21 131 300
298 Jimmy Walker 42 131 289
299 Andres Romero 21 131 299
300 Brad Kennedy 14 131 301
301 Johannes Veerman 32 130 304
302 Matthieu Pavon 46 129 296
303 Sebastian Cappelen 33 126 298
304 Garrick Higgo 20 126 309
305 Sam Saunders 18 125 303
306 Hennie du Plessis 8 125 311
307 Shugo Imahira 28 124 312
308 Wil Besseling 25 124 297
309 Nicolas Colsaerts 41 123 313
310 Jonathan Byrd 31 123 307
311 Francesco Laporta 23 123 302
312 JJ Spaun 44 119 305
313 Anirban Lahiri 38 119 308
314 Mark Anderson 31 117 319
315 Jayden Trey Schaper 9 116 317
316 Chase Wright 18 116 320
317 Wilco Nienaber 29 116 318
318 Sean O’Hair 12 115 322
319 Steven Brown 46 115 314
320 Chris Baker 32 115 325
321 Stephen Gallacher 33 114 326
322 Luke Donald 36 114 315
323 Adrian Otaegui 46 113 324
324 Joohyung Kim 9 113 327
325 Seung-yul Noh 14 112 310
326 Edoardo Molinari 40 112 316
327 Ricky Barnes 22 112 328
328 Lorenzo Gagli 43 112 321
329 Alexander Levy 42 111 323
330 Jack Senior 32 111 329
331 Kyung-nam Kang 12 110 331
332 Sebastian Heisele 19 107 332
333 Travis Smyth 11 105 340
334 Alex Cejka 21 105 336
335 Ollie Schniederjans 24 105 335
336 Adrien Saddier 35 104 330
337 Bill Haas 36 104 337
338 Min Woo Lee 30 103 342
339 John Catlin 36 103 334
340 Ryan Brehm 29 103 341
341 Jamie Arnold 8 103 346
342 Lee Hodges 9 102 350
343 Richard Bland 24 100 333
344 Rikuya Hoshino 20 100 352
345 Kyle Jones 18 100 356
346 Nacho Elvira 42 99 353
347 Johnson Wagner 29 99 347
348 Craig Howie 11 99 354
349 Scott Vincent 33 99 339
350 Scott Hend 42 99 363
351 Curtis Luck 17 98 343
352 Tom Lovelady 8 98 368
353 Bradley Dredge 19 97 361
354 Ashley Chesters 40 96 348
355 Justin Walters 48 96 370
356 Louis de Jager 35 96 359
357 James Morrison 44 96 351
358 Matt Every 41 96 349
359 Soren Kjeldsen 39 95 355
360 Darren Fichardt 26 95 366
361 Dominic Bozzelli 33 95 362
362 Kristoffer Broberg 8 94 367
363 Seung-su Han 15 93 369
364 Gunn Charoenkul 13 93 372
365 Chad Campbell 18 93 371
366 Bernd Ritthammer 28 93 364
367 Rikard Karlberg 31 92 357
368 Trey Mullinax 14 92 344
369 Lucas Bjerregaard 42 91 338
370 Hiroyuki Fujita 17 90 374
371 Brendan Jones 11 90 373
372 Ben Crane 14 90 375
373 Sihwan Kim 30 89 360
374 KJ Choi 23 88 358
375 Tomoharu Otsuki 22 86 378
376 Kelly Kraft 28 84 365
377 Adrian Meronk 24 84 376
378 Jacques Kruyswijk 28 84 417
379 Hideto Tanihara 26 83 383
380 John Chin 16 83 385
381 Thongchai Jaidee 13 82 381
382 Zach Murray 19 82 390
383 Alejandro Canizares 37 81 377
384 Anthony Quayle 11 81 393
385 Brandon Harkins 20 81 384
386 Miguel Tabuena 8 81 389
387 Andy Ogletree 8 80 388
388 Maverick Antcliff 22 79 382
389 Jaco van Zyl 16 78 396
390 Kyung-tae Kim 13 78 399
391 Kristoffer Reitan 27 78 379
392 Tyrone van Aswegen 11 78 392
393 Charlie Saxon 9 78 397
394 Yuta Ikeda 19 77 398
395 Oscar Lengden 14 77 401
396 Dale Whitnell 23 77 394
397 Julian Suri 37 76 386
398 Romain Wattel 32 76 387
399 Rafael Campos 22 75 391
400 Mikumu Horikawa 24 75 406
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

A Look at the Honda Classic

March 16, 2021 Thomas Hawley

NOTE: The following is from golfdigest.com on Wednesday (and the full table of picks below has been updated): The Honda Classic took another hit on Wednesday when the top-ranked golfer in the field, Daniel Berger, withdrew due to a rib injury. Berger .. pulled out of the pro-am Wednesday morning before deciding to skip the tournament entirely.

***

The Players Championship is in the books and we’re back to the regular weekly grind of the PGA Tour. It’s a great time to take a break if you’ve been out there all winter. Thus we have one – count him, one — of the Hawley Ratings top 10 (Daniel Berger) entered in this week’s Honda Classic, two of the top 20 (add Sungjae Im), and only six of the top 40 (add Adam Scott, Joaquin Niemann, Brian Harman, and Lee Westwood).

Berger is the no. 1 player in the field on the basis of a pretty nice record so far in 2021. He missed the cut in Phoenix but bounced back to win the next week at Pebble Beach. In his other four appearances, he has finished in the top 10 three times.

Westwood, the 43-year-old Englishman, has been the source of some amazement in the last two weeks as he boosted his Hawley rating from 81st to 38th by finishing second in back-to-back events, the Palmer and TPC, each time losing by one stroke. He is not an especially good fit for the course but has four prior top-10s in this event.

Im is eight-for-eight on cashing a paycheck in 2021 events, with one top-10 and three other top-20s.

The Honda is not exactly bereft of recognizable names. Unfortunately, the news is not great in all cases. Consider:

  • Rickie Fowler — The ongoing sad story of the one-time world no. 3 player continues. His best finish in 2021 is 20th place at the Genesis. In seven appearances he has three missed cuts and two finishes lower than 50th. Won the Honda in 2017, was second in 2019.
  • Sergio Garcia — Opened eyes last week when he had the early lead in TPC, eventually finishing ninth. He’s been in the top 20 four times (twice in Euro events) in seven 2021 appearances. Has four top-10s here, including last year.
  • Adam Scott — Has got himself up to fourth on the PGA Tour list of consecutive made cuts (12) without becoming even close to a leaderboard regular. Since the Tour re-opened last June, he has one top-20 finish — 10th at the Farmers — but 11 other finishes between 21st and 54th. Won here in 2016.

One unique thing about the Champion course at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens is that it is the only course on Tour where sand saves percentage is the no. 1 stat in terms of correlation of stat performance with event performance. The bunkers are not considered overly penal but they come into play on almost every hole. The no. 2 stat in correlation with success is greens in regulation. If you follow the event on TV, you’ll hear plenty about the “Bear trap”, a difficult three-hole stretch from the 15th through 17th holes. The first and last of those are par-threes, sandwiched around a long par-four.

Jim Furyk, age 50, has a solid lead over the rest of the field in the extent to which his stats profile aligns with the course stats profile. He’s in the top 5 percent of PGA and Euro pros in both sand saves and greens in regulation. His play has been just so-so, with three appearances in 2021 and three made cuts, although yet to crack the top 20. Next in course fit are Russell Henley and Matthew NeSmith. Henley was the winner here in 2014 and a top-10 finisher last year. He’s been lackluster recently; in eight events since November he has three missed cuts and no top-10s. Henley is in the top quarter in sand saves and top 10 percent in GIR. From down in 87th place in the Hawley Ratings is NeSmith, who is in the top half in sand saves and top 1 percent in GIR. He had a nice run of three top-20 finishes in a row in February but arrives here after two straight missed cuts.

Other players of some interest include Keegan Bradley, Talor Gooch, Nate Lashley, and Cameron Percy.

Bradley, 34 years old and winner of the 2011 PGA, has had somewhat of a resurgence this year with a 10th-place finish at the Palmer and solid finishes at Phoenix and TPC. He’s also a nice fit for the course. Gooch had a closing 67 on Sunday to elevate himself to fifth in TPC. The $575,000 paycheck was easily the best of a four-year career for the 29-year-old Oklahoman.

Lashley finished in the top 20 at Phoenix and in the top 10 at Pebble Beach a week later. Those finishes were sandwiched between three missed cuts and a finish just above the cut line. Percy has made the top 10 once and the top 30 twice in his last four outings.

***

Did you see this where Dustin Johnson, currently no. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking, said he would not be competing in the Olympics? “It’s right in the middle of a big stretch of golf for me, so that was the reason I was kind of waffling on it a little bit,” Johnson said last week, per espn.com. “It’s a long way to travel, and I think the WGC [World Golf Championship-FedEx event] is the week right after it. The British is a couple weeks before. It’s a lot of traveling at a time where it’s important to feel like I’m focused playing on the PGA Tour.”

With that in mind, consider this seven-week block of events from Johnson’s 2021 schedule:

  • Jan. 10 – at PGA Tour Sentry Champions event in Hawaii.
  • Feb. 7 – at Euro Tour Saudi International event in Saudi Arabia.
  • Feb. 21—at PGA Tour Genesis Invitational event in Los Angeles.

I suppose it would be crass to think about how the Saudi and Olympics events are similar in travel requirement — and different in appearance guarantees and Johnson’s level of interest.

Honda Classic

March 15, 2021 Thomas Hawley ,
Dustin Johnson
Daniel Berger
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Sungjae Im 46.8 8
2 Adam Scott 51.9 13
3 Joaquin Niemann 52.3 25
4 Rickie Fowler 53.0 65
5 Russell Henley 53.3 3
6 Lee Westwood 54.4 117
7 Brian Harman 54.6 DNP
8 Cameron Tringale 55.5 13
9 Talor Gooch 55.9 46
10 Brendan Steele 58.3 3
11 Byeong Hun An 58.6 69
12 JT Poston 59.1 111
13 Sam Burns 59.3 DNP
14 James Hahn 59.6 WD
15 Keegan Bradley 59.7 30
16 Ian Poulter 59.8 80
17 Shane Lowry 60.0 36
18 Wyndham Clark 60.6 69
19 Alex Noren 62.0 46
20 Chris Kirk 62.4 25
21 Zach Johnson 62.9 8
22 Matthew NeSmith 63.0 36
23 Kevin Streelman 63.5 36
24 Rory Sabbatini 63.7 138
25 Cameron Davis 63.7 33
26 Doug Ghim 63.7 98
27 Matt Jones 63.9 1
28 Adam Hadwin 63.9 8
29 Harold Varner 64.4 19
30 Martin Kaymer 64.5 138
31 Jim Furyk 64.7 69
32 Lucas Glover 64.7 19
33 Tom Hoge 64.8 106
34 Dylan Frittelli 64.8 90
35 Erik Van Rooyen 65.1 60
36 Adam Long 65.1 90
37 Mac Hughes 65.2 36
38 Richy Werenski 65.3 69
39 Matt Wallace 65.5 80
40 Michael Thompson 65.6 19
41 Russell Knox 65.9 69
42 Maverick McNealy 66.1 106
43 Nate Lashley 66.3 36
44 Patton Kizzire 66.9 80
45 Chez Reavie 67.1 98
46 Jhonattan Vegas 67.1 30
47 KH Lee 67.2 98
48 Henrik Norlander 67.3 80
49 John Huh 67.3 19
50 Danny Willett 67.3 DNP
51 Nick Taylor 67.4 69
52 Cameron Percy 67.5 80
53 Peter Malnati 67.5 131
54 Sepp Straka 67.6 33
55 Rafa Cabrera Bello 67.6 106
56 Patrick Rodgers 67.9 80
57 Stewart Cink 67.9 19
58 Bo Hoag 67.9 90
59 Wesley Bryan 67.9 135
60 Charl Schwartzel 67.9 53
61 Vaughn Taylor 68.0 111
62 Ryan Moore 68.1 90
63 Harry Higgs 68.5 19
64 Luke List 68.5 90
65 Kyle Stanley 68.7 DNP
66 Lucas Herbert 68.8 46
67 Steve Stricker 68.8 13
68 Denny McCarthy 68.9 3
69 Jason Dufner 68.9 53
70 Scott Stallings 69.0 98
71 Brian Stuard 69.1 131
72 Mark Hubbard 69.2 46
73 Padraig Harrington 69.5 128
74 Will Gordon 69.6 36
75 Tom Lewis 69.8 36
76 Brice Garnett 69.8 25
77 Aaron Wise 70.1 13
78 Robby Shelton 70.2 111
79 Henrik Stenson 70.3 138
80 CT Pan 70.4 3
81 Andrew Landry 70.5 135
82 Roger Sloan 70.6 25
83 Keith Mitchell 70.6 53
84 Chase Seiffert 70.7 3
85 Ryan Armour 70.7 58
86 Chesson Hadley 70.8 111
87 Troy Merritt 70.8 69
88 Pat Perez 70.8 46
89 Adam Schenk 71.0 36
90 Phil Mickelson 71.2 25
91 Scott Brown 71.3 98
92 Bronson Burgoon 71.5 67
93 Rob Oppenheim 71.6 128
94 Hank Lebioda 71.7 122
95 Tyler Duncan 71.8 69
96 Kramer Hickok 71.9 DNP
97 Austin Cook 72.1 80
98 Tyler McCumber 72.1 33
99 Ted Potter 72.3 64
100 Hudson Swafford 72.3 117
101 JB Holmes 72.3 46
102 Xinjun Zhang 72.5 69
103 Camilo Villegas 72.6 8
104 Brian Gay 72.6 46
105 Brandon Hagy 72.6 2
106 Anirban Lahiri 72.6 69
107 Robert Streb 72.6 13
108 Joseph Bramlett 72.7 98
109 Sean O’Hair 72.8 DNP
110 DJ Trahan 72.8 60
111 Beau Hossler 73.0 60
112 Sung Kang 73.2 135
113 Sam Ryder 73.2 8
114 Jimmy Walker 73.6 58
115 Kristoffer Ventura 73.8 90
116 William McGirt 73.8 60
117 Kevin Chappell 73.9 13
118 Michael Gligic 73.9 117
119 Graeme McDowell 73.9 117
120 Jim Herman 74.0 53
121 Grayson Murray 74.0 131
122 Scott Harrington 74.0 53
123 Vincent Whaley 74.1 36
124 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 74.4 67
125 David Hearn 74.5 80
126 Luke Donald 74.5 80
127 KJ Choi 74.5 98
128 JJ Spaun 74.6 122
129 Sebastian Cappelen 74.8 122
130 Ryan Brehm 75.2 DNP
131 Jamie Lovemark 75.4 128
132 Vijay Singh 75.5 111
133 Kelly Kraft 75.7 80
134 Chase Koepka 76.1 30
135 Ryo Ishikawa 76.2 117
136 Seung-yul Noh 76.2 69
137 Satoshi Kodaira 76.3 36
138 Rafael Campos 76.7 98
139 Rhein Gibson 77.0 90
140 Bo Van Pelt 77.0 131
141 Brandon Wu 77.4 111
142 Michael Kim 77.5 90
143 Hunter Mahan 78.5 122
144 Kamaiu Johnson 78.8 142
145 Alan Morin 78.8 122
146 Martin Trainer 79.0 141
Stephen Stallings late entry 66
Zach Zaback late entry 106
Marcelo Rozo late entry 110
Erik Compton late entry 124
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 52. The average is 140. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.