A Look at Golf – Page 86 – Alookatgolf provides information for the professional golf fan, fantasy golf enthusiast, and daily fantasy sports golf participant. We provide true odds on U.S. and European professional golf events and accurate rankings of U.S. and European pro golfers.

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

September 30, 2018 Thomas Hawley Euro Events, Picks

Tommy Fleetwood

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Tommy Fleetwood	19.1	2
2	Tony Finau	20.0	10
3	Brooks Koepka	20.6	7
4	Tyrrell Hatton	25.9	2
5	Louis Oosthuizen	33.6	32
6	Branden Grace	46.6	55
7	Shane Lowry	49.0	111
8	Matt Kuchar	49.6	28
9	Matthew Fitzpatrick	53.2	91
10	Thorbjorn Olesen	53.3	DNP
11	Thomas Pieters	54.8	60
12	Ross Fisher	58.7	32
13	Chris Wood	58.8	73
14	Eddie Pepperell	60.1	44
15	Ryan Fox	61.0	24
16	Erik Van Rooyen	61.4	146
17	Graeme McDowell	62.4	146
18	Andy Sullivan	62.8	10
19	Brandon Stone	62.9	10
20	Haotong Li	63.0	5
21	Richard Sterne	63.3	134
22	Soren Kjeldsen	64.0	48
23	Martin Kaymer	64.6	73
24	Jorge Campillo	64.7	139
25	Miguel Angel Jimenez	65.5	101
26	Michael Lorenzo-Vera	65.5	91
27	Lucas Bjerregaard	65.7	1
28	Benjamin Hebert	66.0	32
29	Hideto Tanihara	66.4	101
30	Adrian Otaegui	66.4	73
31	Doug Ghim	66.9	61
32	Thomas Detry	66.9	48
33	Robert Rock	66.9	20
34	Matthew Southgate	67.2	73
35	Alexander Bjork	67.3	73
36	Andrea Pavan	67.5	5
37	Paul Dunne	67.6	153
38	Alexander Levy	67.8	32
39	Jordan Smith	67.8	32
40	Joakim Lagergren	67.9	164
41	George Coetzee	67.9	127
42	Stephen Gallacher	68.0	10
43	Pablo Larrazabal	68.1	56
44	Bradley Dredge	68.2	120
45	Dean Burmester	68.6	139
46	Matt Wallace	68.6	28
47	David Horsey	69.1	162
48	Nacho Elvira	69.1	10
49	Darren Fichardt	69.2	48
50	Marc Warren	69.8	139
51	David Drysdale	70.0	101
52	Marcus Kinhult	70.0	20
53	Nicolas Colsaerts	70.0	10
54	Scott Jamieson	70.0	91
55	Padraig Harrington	70.2	7
56	Ashley Chesters	70.3	44
57	Richie Ramsay	70.4	61
58	Haydn Porteous	70.4	120
59	Tom Lewis	70.5	10
60	Wade Ormsby	70.5	127
61	Richard McEvoy	70.7	73
62	Callum Shinkwin	70.7	101
63	Mikko Ilonen	70.9	32
64	Jeunghun Wang	70.9	139
65	Lee Slattery	70.9	20
66	Maximilian Kieffer	70.9	91
67	Aaron Rai	71.0	61
68	Chris Paisley	71.1	24
69	Lucas Herbert	71.3	7
70	Oliver Fisher	71.4	32
71	Romain Wattel	71.5	101
72	Matthieu Pavon	71.6	20
73	Jason Scrivener	71.7	24
74	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	72.0	48
75	Sam Horsfield	72.1	61
76	Nino Bertasio	72.2	139
77	Scott Hend	72.2	61
78	Jaco van Zyl	72.3	157
79	Phachara Khongwatmai	72.4	91
80	Trevor Immelman	72.4	44
81	Luke Donald	72.4	61
82	Zac Blair	72.5	153
83	Julien Guerrier	72.7	32
84	Jacques Kruyswijk	72.8	91
85	Renato Paratore	73.0	32
86	Raphael Jacquelin	73.0	157
87	James Morrison	73.1	56
88	David Lipsky	73.3	73
89	Justin Walters	73.4	61
90	David Howell	73.4	159
91	Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	73.4	73
92	Thongchai Jaidee	73.4	32
93	Richard Bland	73.5	61
94	Marcel Siem	73.6	91
95	Matthias Schwab	73.6	10
96	Austin Connelly	73.7	111
97	Gavin Green	73.7	134
98	Ricardo Gouveia	73.8	146
99	Peter Hanson	73.8	10
100	Gregory Havret	73.9	134
101	Thomas Aiken	74.0	127
102	Jonathan Thomson	74.1	101
103	Matthew Baldwin	74.1	DNP
104	Alejandro Canizares	74.1	59
105	Adam Bland	74.2	153
106	Jens Dantorp	74.3	127
107	Paul Peterson	74.3	61
108	Robert Karlsson	74.4	146
109	JC Ritchie	74.6	146
110	Gregory Bourdy	74.7	120
111	Adrien Saddier	74.7	44
112	Steven Brown	74.7	73
113	Andrew Dodt	74.8	111
114	Jamie Donaldson	74.9	146
115	Soomin Lee	74.9	111
116	Pep Angles	75.0	32
117	Daniel Brooks	75.1	127
118	Jin Choi	75.1	111
119	Lasse Jensen	75.1	101
120	Connor Syme	75.2	101
121	Chase Koepka	75.3	73
122	Matteo Manassero	75.3	159
123	Ernie Els	75.3	48
124	Sam Brazel	75.4	61
125	Laurie Canter	75.5	61
126	Marcus Fraser	75.5	10
127	Kim Koivu	75.5	73
128	Michael Hoey	75.5	101
129	Ryan Evans	75.7	134
130	Jeff Winther	75.7	DNP
131	Lorenzo Gagli	75.7	DNP
132	Alvaro Quiros	75.7	91
133	Chris Hanson	75.8	111
134	Sebastien Gros	75.8	111
135	Ockie Strydom	75.8	134
136	Jake McLeod	75.8	48
137	Pedro Oriol	75.9	120
138	Zander Lombard	76.0	73
139	Nicolas Geyger	76.1	DNP
140	Tapio Pulkkanen	76.2	4
141	Scott Fernandez	76.3	73
142	Brett Rumford	76.3	162
143	Oliver Bekker	76.3	56
144	Edoardo Molinari	76.4	24
145	Charlie Ford	76.5	DNP
146	Rak hyun Cho	76.5	DNP
147	Clement Sordet	76.6	28
148	Daniel Im	76.6	139
149	James Heath	76.6	DNP
150	Jaco Ahlers	76.7	120
151	Oliver Farr	77.1	139
152	Carlos Pigem	77.3	146
153	Jason Norris	77.4	111
154	Bradley Neil	77.5	168
155	Peter Karmis	77.5	48
156	Ajeetesh Sandhu	77.7	159
157	Freddie Jacobson	78.3	73
158	Louis de Jager	78.7	127
159	Jean-Paul Strydom	79.3	153
160	Jordan Zunic	79.9	73
161	Pelle Edberg	79.9	166
162	Ken Duke	79.9	91
163	Richard T Lee	80.3	120
164	Liam Johnston	80.5	164
165	Ulrich van den Berg	80.7	167
166	Simon Dyson	80.8	127
167	Deyen Lawson	80.9	28
168	Kyle McClatchie	81.0	111
169	James Marchesani	81.0	73
170	Sam Locke	81.5	91
171	Paul McGinley	81.5	101
172	Norman Xiong	81.6	73
173	Matthew Jordan	81.6	32
174	Robin Dawson	81.6	61
175	Oliver Gillberg	81.6	120
176	Harry Ellis	81.6	73
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 353. The average is 207. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order starting with the top pick to win the event. The Finish Estimate reflects each player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, and recent performance in the event. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Sep. 30, 2018)

September 30, 2018 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Dustin Johnson ends the 2018 PGA Tour season as the no. 1 player for the 19th straight week.

#	Thru Sep. 30, 2018	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Dustin Johnson	46	1860	1
2	Justin Thomas	53	1740	3
3	Justin Rose	48	1706	2
4	Rickie Fowler	49	1655	4
5	Brooks Koepka	45	1620	6
6	Tiger Woods	23	1583	5
7	Patrick Cantlay	35	1501	7
8	Paul Casey	48	1459	8
9	Jordan Spieth	52	1459	10
10	Rory McIlroy	43	1444	9
11	Tony Finau	59	1423	11
12	Jason Day	43	1377	13
13	Webb Simpson	55	1375	12
14	Francesco Molinari	52	1348	15
15	Tommy Fleetwood	60	1336	16
16	Jon Rahm	52	1326	14
17	Hideki Matsuyama	48	1254	17
18	Louis Oosthuizen	44	1237	18
19	Henrik Stenson	46	1197	20
20	Phil Mickelson	49	1165	19
21	Matt Kuchar	59	1112	21
22	Patrick Reed	66	1093	22
23	Xander Schauffele	54	1092	24
24	Alex Noren	52	1085	23
25	Adam Scott	44	1058	26
26	Marc Leishman	53	1043	27
27	Tyrrell Hatton	54	1031	25
28	Kyle Stanley	55	1030	28
29	Bryson DeChambeau	60	1002	29
30	Rafa Cabrera Bello	63	999	30
31	Zach Johnson	51	969	31
32	Ian Poulter	60	956	33
33	Kevin Kisner	57	954	32
34	Brian Harman	55	927	34
35	Charley Hoffman	61	920	35
36	Ryan Moore	46	912	36
37	Joaquin Niemann	15	909	37
38	Cameron Smith	54	881	38
39	Brandt Snedeker	45	865	40
40	Charles Howell	52	863	41
41	Daniel Berger	52	862	43
42	Branden Grace	54	861	42
43	Steve Stricker	27	856	44
44	Bubba Watson	51	855	39
45	Adam Hadwin	54	843	45
46	Gary Woodland	55	840	47
47	Emiliano Grillo	55	839	46
48	Kevin Na	52	832	49
49	Pat Perez	52	829	48
50	Sergio Garcia	47	824	52
51	Keegan Bradley	57	820	50
52	Billy Horschel	56	813	51
53	Chez Reavie	56	796	53
54	Kevin Chappell	54	784	54
55	Graham DeLaet	28	779	56
56	Jason Dufner	48	779	55
57	Russell Henley	50	770	57
58	Stewart Cink	52	769	58
59	Matthew Fitzpatrick	54	744	59
60	Jamie Lovemark	54	738	60
61	Luke List	61	733	61
62	Charl Schwartzel	50	731	62
63	Chesson Hadley	42	730	63
64	Byeong Hun An	59	727	64
65	Aaron Wise	38	720	65
66	Thomas Pieters	51	714	66
67	Bud Cauley	46	688	67
68	Shane Lowry	55	687	69
69	Brendan Steele	47	685	68
70	Jimmy Walker	48	671	70
71	Jason Kokrak	57	669	71
72	Bernd Wiesberger	42	657	72
73	Peter Uihlein	58	629	73
74	Kevin Streelman	53	620	74
75	JB Holmes	50	612	75
76	Anirban Lahiri	54	600	77
77	Ryan Palmer	42	596	80
78	Russell Knox	63	595	78
79	Kevin Tway	59	595	79
80	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	58	592	81
81	Thorbjorn Olesen	56	592	76
82	Chris Kirk	58	585	82
83	Beau Hossler	39	584	83
84	Andrew Putnam	32	582	84
85	Brian Gay	55	581	85
86	Martin Laird	49	576	86
87	Lucas Glover	48	576	87
88	Danny Lee	65	576	88
89	Abraham Ancer	35	565	89
90	CT Pan	62	554	90
91	Bill Haas	51	538	91
92	Eddie Pepperell	46	537	92
93	Nick Watney	49	529	93
94	Lee Westwood	45	527	94
95	Austin Cook	33	526	95
96	Jhonattan Vegas	58	518	96
97	Rory Sabbatini	51	518	97
98	Sean O’Hair	50	511	99
99	Ross Fisher	51	510	98
100	Bronson Burgoon	28	505	100
101	James Hahn	54	505	101
102	JJ Spaun	57	500	102
103	Ryan Fox	49	498	104
104	Haotong Li	51	497	105
105	Si Woo Kim	59	497	103
106	Keith Mitchell	34	490	106
107	Julian Suri	41	481	107
108	Ollie Schniederjans	56	478	108
109	Joel Dahmen	48	478	110
110	Patrick Rodgers	57	476	109
111	Scott Piercy	49	471	111
112	Grayson Murray	51	468	112
113	Graeme McDowell	57	462	113
114	Andy Sullivan	52	459	114
115	Harold Varner	63	458	115
116	William McGirt	54	447	116
117	Erik Van Rooyen	27	445	117
118	Chris Wood	53	442	118
119	Dylan Frittelli	58	441	119
120	Morgan Hoffmann	39	428	121
121	Brice Garnett	36	428	120
122	Vaughn Taylor	52	427	122
123	Scott Brown	61	427	123
124	Ryan Armour	54	422	124
125	Scott Stallings	58	417	126
126	Andrew Landry	31	416	127
127	Seung-yul Noh	32	416	125
128	Sam Saunders	54	414	128
129	Hudson Swafford	49	413	130
130	Brandon Hagy	29	411	131
131	Martin Kaymer	51	410	129
132	Chase Seiffert	9	408	132
133	David Lingmerth	62	405	135
134	Sam Burns	15	405	134
135	Victor Dubuisson	25	404	133
136	Joost Luiten	43	401	136
137	Sung Kang	61	399	137
138	Alexander Bjork	51	393	140
139	John Oda	13	393	138
140	Jorge Campillo	55	392	139
141	Nick Taylor	60	392	141
142	Miguel Angel Jimenez	12	391	142
143	Michael Lorenzo-Vera	44	385	143
144	Ryan Blaum	57	382	144
145	Brandon Harkins	34	381	145
146	Paul Dunne	53	379	146
147	Jim Furyk	33	376	147
148	Mackenzie Hughes	59	374	148
149	Tom Hoge	52	373	149
150	Seamus Power	57	370	150
151	Kramer Hickok	8	366	151
152	Ben Martin	47	366	155
153	Ted Potter	34	365	153
154	Jerry Kelly	11	364	158
155	Hideto Tanihara	42	363	154
156	Wesley Bryan	50	362	152
157	JT Poston	54	360	157
158	Michael Thompson	45	360	156
159	Tyler Duncan	36	359	159
160	Soren Kjeldsen	55	357	160
161	David Hearn	58	353	161
162	Patton Kizzire	56	345	163
163	Aaron Baddeley	52	345	162
164	Chad Campbell	61	345	165
165	Sam Ryder	31	344	164
166	Jordan Smith	51	343	167
167	Richy Werenski	59	343	168
168	Richard Sterne	45	342	169
169	Kelly Kraft	59	341	166
170	Trey Mullinax	56	341	170
171	Whee Kim	58	337	173
172	Robert Garrigus	57	336	171
173	John Huh	57	334	172
174	Alexander Levy	51	334	174
175	Harris English	60	332	175
176	Matthew Southgate	54	328	177
177	Denny McCarthy	30	325	176
178	Dean Burmester	46	324	178
179	Doug Ghim	9	321	179
180	Troy Merritt	61	320	180
181	Benjamin Hebert	49	318	182
182	Johnson Wagner	53	318	181
183	Dylan Meyer	13	315	184
184	Matt Jones	51	313	183
185	Cameron Davis	12	311	185
186	Adrian Otaegui	55	309	186
187	Andrew Johnston	41	306	187
188	Chris Stroud	49	305	188
189	Michael Kim	54	302	189
190	Marcus Kinhult	23	301	192
191	Brian Stuard	64	301	191
192	Satoshi Kodaira	26	300	190
193	Alex Cejka	60	300	193
194	George Coetzee	55	296	194
195	Matt Wallace	48	296	195
196	Retief Goosen	42	295	196
197	Fabrizio Zanotti	46	292	197
198	Pablo Larrazabal	50	290	198
199	Andrea Pavan	27	290	199
200	Ben Crane	54	287	200
201	Lucas Bjerregaard	56	284	201
202	Corey Conners	37	280	202
203	Brandon Stone	50	278	206
204	Curtis Luck	29	278	205
205	Jim Herman	38	276	203
206	Tyrone van Aswegen	68	276	204
207	Seung-su Han	15	274	207
208	Thomas Detry	52	271	209
209	Luke Donald	34	269	208
210	Darren Fichardt	41	268	216
211	Robert Streb	63	268	212
212	Anders Albertson	9	267	211
213	JJ Henry	62	267	215
214	Kyung-tae Kim	12	267	210
215	Shubhankar Sharma	33	266	214
216	Nacho Elvira	56	266	217
217	Cameron Percy	47	266	213
218	Robert Rock	50	263	218
219	Richie Ramsay	53	260	220
220	Callum Shinkwin	42	257	221
221	Camilo Villegas	41	256	219
222	Chris Paisley	51	256	223
223	Nicolas Colsaerts	56	256	224
224	Scott Hend	58	255	225
225	Stephen Gallacher	51	254	226
226	Jonas Blixt	52	254	222
227	Danny Willett	47	245	227
228	Talor Gooch	37	245	228
229	Matthieu Pavon	52	245	230
230	Adam Schenk	36	245	229
231	Derek Fathauer	57	242	232
232	Jeunghun Wang	58	241	233
233	Blayne Barber	51	239	234
234	Henrik Norlander	14	237	231
235	Dominic Bozzelli	49	236	235
236	Benjamin Silverman	36	235	236
237	Anthony Wall	29	232	238
238	Aaron Rai	39	230	239
239	David Horsey	50	230	237
240	Scott Jamieson	54	229	243
241	Mikko Korhonen	47	228	241
242	Tag Ridings	24	227	240
243	Julian Etulain	30	225	244
244	Shawn Stefani	59	224	245
245	Rafael Campos	13	223	242
246	Will MacKenzie	18	222	247
247	Padraig Harrington	50	221	249
248	Graeme Storm	39	221	250
249	Peter Malnati	62	220	248
250	Zac Blair	62	219	246
251	Wade Ormsby	49	219	252
252	Ricky Barnes	61	218	257
253	Smylie Kaufman	50	217	256
254	Bradley Dredge	48	217	251
255	David Lipsky	55	217	253
256	Ashun Wu	54	217	254
257	Daniel Summerhays	56	215	258
258	Andres Gonzales	29	215	255
259	Maximilian Kieffer	50	215	259
260	Lee Slattery	52	215	261
261	Hunter Mahan	54	213	264
262	David Drysdale	59	213	263
263	Mikko Ilonen	41	213	260
264	Joachim B Hansen	9	211	265
265	Nate Lashley	25	211	262
266	Martin Flores	60	210	268
267	Daisuke Kataoka	17	209	271
268	Sam Horsfield	35	209	267
269	Tim Wilkinson	29	208	266
270	Lucas Herbert	24	207	272
271	Jaco van Zyl	25	206	269
272	Joakim Lagergren	50	206	270
273	Ashley Chesters	51	205	273
274	Boo Weekley	28	203	280
275	Haydn Porteous	63	203	276
276	Roger Sloan	9	202	274
277	Fabian Gomez	54	201	277
278	Nicholas Lindheim	56	200	278
279	Geoff Ogilvy	45	200	275
280	Oliver Fisher	54	199	279
281	Nino Bertasio	61	199	282
282	Seth Reeves	8	197	281
283	Richard McEvoy	29	195	283
284	John Peterson	33	191	284
285	Greg Chalmers	51	191	285
286	Jonathan Byrd	41	189	286
287	Jason Scrivener	54	187	287
288	Kristoffer Broberg	15	186	291
289	Sean Crocker	14	185	288
290	Trevor Immelman	25	183	294
291	Stephan Jaeger	38	183	292
292	Jacques Kruyswijk	28	183	290
293	Thongchai Jaidee	49	182	289
294	Rob Oppenheim	38	181	293
295	Martin Piller	39	178	295
296	Austin Connelly	43	176	297
297	TJ Vogel	8	176	296
298	Yuta Ikeda	23	176	298
299	Andres Romero	39	174	301
300	Sebastian Munoz	27	173	303
301	DA Points	47	173	299
302	Sang-Moon Bae	20	172	304
303	Rikard Karlberg	26	172	300
304	Poom Saksansin	19	172	306
305	Renato Paratore	56	172	302
306	Cameron Tringale	62	172	305
307	Spencer Levin	37	170	309
308	Tom Lovelady	36	170	307
309	KJ Choi	40	169	308
310	Romain Wattel	52	169	310
311	Rick Lamb	33	169	318
312	Andrew Dodt	49	168	313
313	Tom Lewis	39	168	314
314	Sung-jae Im	8	168	311
315	Jose-Filipe Lima	29	167	317
316	Chad Collins	32	167	312
317	Wes Roach	8	167	316
318	Paul Waring	49	167	315
319	Lanto Griffin	34	165	319
320	Brett Coletta	10	164	323
321	Matthias Schwab	24	163	322
322	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	31	163	320
323	Vijay Singh	31	162	326
324	Kyle Reifers	37	161	324
325	Julien Guerrier	31	161	325
326	Gavin Green	31	160	328
327	Billy Hurley	52	160	321
328	Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	39	159	327
329	Brian Campbell	28	157	330
330	Greg Owen	20	156	329
331	Adam Bland	27	155	331
332	Steve Wheatcroft	46	154	332
333	Jake McLeod	9	153	334
334	Thomas Aiken	46	152	333
335	Jens Dantorp	35	150	335
336	Jonathan Randolph	55	149	336
337	Marc Warren	55	146	338
338	Cody Gribble	53	146	337
339	JC Ritchie	11	145	341
340	Johan Carlsson	35	145	342
341	Ryan Brehm	30	144	340
342	Ryo Ishikawa	29	144	339
343	Ricardo Gouveia	58	144	343
344	Yusaku Miyazato	28	143	344
345	Tim Herron	23	143	345
346	Parker McLachlin	16	142	347
347	Brett Stegmaier	56	142	346
348	Hennie Otto	16	141	350
349	Roberto Castro	29	140	348
350	Trevor Fisher	20	140	349
351	Phachara Khongwatmai	51	139	352
352	James Morrison	58	139	351
353	Justin Walters	56	138	354
354	Mark Anderson	27	137	353
355	Marcel Siem	54	137	356
356	Angel Cabrera	26	136	355
357	Cameron Champ	11	134	357
358	Will Wilcox	22	133	358
359	Ockie Strydom	9	133	362
360	Raphael Jacquelin	53	131	359
361	Richard Bland	52	131	361
362	Robby Shelton	12	131	360
363	Davis Love	26	130	364
364	Henric Sturehed	20	130	363
365	Mark Brown	8	130	365
366	Matthew Nixon	36	127	366
367	Jamie Donaldson	46	127	367
368	Matt Every	65	127	368
369	Paul Peterson	46	127	370
370	Kim Koivu	8	126	371
371	Prayad Marksaeng	9	126	373
372	Peter Hanson	38	125	369
373	Ethan Tracy	31	124	372
374	Roberto Diaz	36	124	374
375	Sepp Straka	11	123	377
376	Jacques Blaauw	14	123	375
377	Adrien Saddier	32	122	378
378	Khalin Joshi	9	122	381
379	Stuart Appleby	37	121	379
380	Bryce Molder	26	121	380
381	Jason Gore	14	121	385
382	Connor Syme	30	120	383
383	Alejandro Canizares	42	120	376
384	Scott Vincent	33	120	384
385	Michael Hoey	13	120	386
386	Matteo Manassero	53	119	382
387	Gregory Havret	56	117	387
388	Chris Hanson	56	117	388
389	John Merrick	24	116	390
390	Steven Brown	27	115	391
391	Carlos Ortiz	10	115	392
392	Adam Svensson	9	115	393
393	DJ Trahan	13	113	395
394	Micah Lauren Shin	10	113	396
395	Bill Lunde	10	113	389
396	Ryuko Tokimatsu	8	113	394
397	Max Homa	22	112	399
398	Jonathan Thomson	22	112	397
399	Chase Koepka	29	111	398
400	Maverick McNealy	15	111	400
More \| Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Ryder Cup

September 24, 2018 Thomas Hawley Euro Events, U.S. Events

Ian Poulter

U.S. roster

Player	World rank	W	L	T
Justin Thomas	3	3	1	1
Patrick Reed	22	10	4	4
Phil Mickelson	19	19	9	4
Brooks Koepka	6	5	3	0
Dustin Johnson	1	14	9	2
Jordan Spieth	10	12	8	3
Webb Simpson	12	7	6	3
Tiger Woods	5	9	8	1
Rickie Fowler	4	6	6	4
Bubba Watson	39	8	11	2
Bryson DeChambeau	29	0	0	0
Tony Finau	11	0	0	0
More \| Less

Europe roster

Player	World rank	W	L	T
Ian Poulter	33	7	2	2
Justin Rose	2	8	5	2
Rory McIlroy	9	9	6	4
Henrick Stenson	20	5	4	0
Sergio Garcia	52	5	5	3
Francesco Molinari	15	0	4	2
Paul Casey	8	0	0	0
Tommy Fleetwood	16	0	0	0
Tyrrell Hatton	25	0	0	0
Alex Noren	23	0	0	0
Thorbjorn Olesen	76	0	0	0
Jon Rahm	14	0	0	0
More \| Less

Data shown is the player’s Hawley Ratings rank and his W-L-T record in all Presidents Cup/ Ryder Cup competition over the last eight years. Players are listed in order of their W-L-T winning percentage.

A look at the Tour Championship

September 17, 2018 Thomas Hawley Narrative

The long, winding road that is the PGA Tour comes to an end this week in Atlanta. Who do you like? The guy with the most FedEx points? The top-rated guy? The best fit for the East Lake Golf Club? The hottest guy? The guy with the best Vegas odds? Some (semi-)longshot?

Let’s start by eliminating 10 guys.

Paul Casey – Playing his worst golf of the last year; no U.S. top-20 since June.
Patton Kizzire – Playing far worse than anyone else in the field; no top-10 since winning the Sony in January.
Marc Leishman – No top-10 since May.
Phil Mickelson – Not a good fit for the course and probably a LOT more focused on the Ryder Cup next week.
Kevin Na – Playing well recently but not much of a fit for the course.
Jon Rahm – One missed cut and two outside-the-top-20 finishes in the FedEx series to date.
Patrick Reed – Last top-10 in the U.S. was the U.S. Open, and not a great fit for the course.
Xander Schauffele – Pops up with a nice finish once in a while (e.g. the BMW), but winning it two years in a row? Seems unlikely.
Kyle Stanley – In the bottom third in the field in overall rating, and with one top-10 in the last three months.
Aaron Wise – Great job to get here as a rookie but ahead of only Kizzire in the rankings.

To be clear, there are two championships available here. One is the FedEx Cup and its $10 million bonus. That’s based on the player’s FedEx Cup points. The other is the Tour Championship event. That’s this weekend’s golf tournament. After a stretch Read more

Tour Championship

September 17, 2018 Thomas Hawley Picks, U.S. Events

Justin Rose

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Justin Rose	-5.8	4
2	Dustin Johnson	-2.5	3
3	Rory McIlroy	1.7	7
4	Justin Thomas	2.1	7
5	Brooks Koepka	7.3	26
6	Rickie Fowler	10.0	7
7	Tony Finau	10.8	15
8	Jason Day	16.1	18
9	Tiger Woods	17.2	1
10	Webb Simpson	21.1	4
11	Patrick Cantlay	21.3	21
12	Tommy Fleetwood	22.9	11
13	Francesco Molinari	23.1	21
14	Paul Casey	23.4	11
15	Hideki Matsuyama	26.7	4
16	Bryson DeChambeau	28.1	19
17	Phil Mickelson	30.5	30
18	Patrick Reed	32.3	28
19	Jon Rahm	32.6	11
20	Billy Horschel	35.8	2
21	Bubba Watson	37.8	29
22	Gary Woodland	38.2	11
23	Kevin Na	40.7	25
24	Kyle Stanley	41.8	15
25	Xander Schauffele	43.8	7
26	Cameron Smith	44.2	20
27	Marc Leishman	47.7	21
28	Keegan Bradley	48.6	26
29	Aaron Wise	54.0	15
30	Patton Kizzire	70.6	21
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 373. The average is 207. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Portugal Masters

September 17, 2018 Thomas Hawley Euro Events, Picks

Shane Lowry

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Shane Lowry	46.8	6
2	Andy Sullivan	49.9	20
3	Charl Schwartzel	54.4	40
4	Thorbjorn Olesen	55.4	20
5	Chris Wood	57.4	12
6	Sergio Garcia	57.5	7
7	Ryan Fox	60.4	27
8	Lucas Bjerregaard	60.8	20
9	Jorge Campillo	61.7	44
10	Eddie Pepperell	62.3	2
11	Ross Fisher	62.4	40
12	Haotong Li	63.4	27
13	Benjamin Hebert	64.4	101
14	Soren Kjeldsen	64.6	56
15	Nacho Elvira	64.8	73
16	Alexander Levy	64.9	82
17	Thomas Detry	65.7	147
18	Hideto Tanihara	65.9	123
19	Matt Wallace	66.0	44
20	Robert Rock	66.0	34
21	Padraig Harrington	66.3	101
22	Richard Sterne	66.5	16
23	Matthew Southgate	66.6	82
24	Nicolas Colsaerts	66.7	40
25	Stephen Gallacher	66.9	44
26	George Coetzee	66.9	20
27	Pablo Larrazabal	67.2	73
28	Andrew Johnston	67.5	34
29	Jordan Smith	68.2	27
30	Paul Dunne	68.7	44
31	Tom Lewis	68.9	1
32	Justin Walters	69.0	138
33	Mikko Korhonen	69.1	12
34	Ashun Wu	69.1	44
35	Scott Jamieson	69.4	20
36	Maximilian Kieffer	69.8	101
37	Callum Shinkwin	69.9	82
38	David Drysdale	69.9	111
39	Aaron Rai	70.0	95
40	David Horsey	70.1	44
41	Danny Willett	70.2	44
42	Marc Warren	70.5	63
43	Richard McEvoy	70.5	138
44	Thomas Aiken	70.6	73
45	Paul Waring	70.6	101
46	Romain Wattel	71.0	142
47	Nino Bertasio	71.0	69
48	Richie Ramsay	71.2	101
49	Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	71.2	27
50	Sam Horsfield	71.3	130
51	Haydn Porteous	71.3	20
52	Bradley Dredge	71.4	16
53	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	71.4	80
54	Marcus Kinhult	71.5	4
55	Phachara Khongwatmai	71.5	44
56	Matthieu Pavon	71.7	44
57	Joakim Lagergren	71.9	130
58	Gavin Green	71.9	95
59	Jason Scrivener	71.9	12
60	Julien Guerrier	72.1	34
61	Ashley Chesters	72.2	16
62	Thongchai Jaidee	72.2	130
63	David Lipsky	72.3	63
64	Jacques Kruyswijk	72.6	34
65	Ricardo Gouveia	72.6	7
66	Matthew Baldwin	72.8	60
67	Lucas Herbert	72.9	2
68	Oliver Fisher	73.0	7
69	Austin Connelly	73.0	82
70	Marcel Siem	73.1	123
71	Felipe Aguilar	73.1	44
72	Richard Bland	73.5	20
73	Matthew Nixon	73.5	44
74	Gregory Havret	73.5	34
75	Matthias Schwab	73.5	27
76	Jamie Donaldson	73.7	142
77	Jaco van Zyl	73.8	73
78	Renato Paratore	73.8	27
79	Jonathan Thomson	73.8	111
80	Jens Dantorp	73.9	130
81	Paul Peterson	73.9	111
82	Alejandro Canizares	74.1	56
83	James Morrison	74.3	123
84	Yusaku Miyazato	74.3	70
85	Alvaro Quiros	74.3	130
86	Raphael Jacquelin	74.3	7
87	Steven Brown	74.4	111
88	Daniel Brooks	74.5	73
89	Peter Hanson	74.6	101
90	Connor Syme	74.8	138
91	Lorenzo Gagli	74.9	82
92	Gregory Bourdy	75.0	138
93	Chase Koepka	75.0	147
94	Matteo Manassero	75.1	111
95	Jeff Winther	75.1	101
96	Lasse Jensen	75.2	34
97	Sam Brazel	75.2	82
98	Henric Sturehed	75.2	95
99	Ryan Evans	75.2	82
100	Steve Webster	75.4	130
101	Laurie Canter	75.4	152
102	Chris Hanson	75.5	70
103	Sebastien Gros	75.6	82
104	Adrien Saddier	75.6	16
105	Pedro Oriol	75.6	95
106	Nick Cullen	75.6	101
107	Joel Stalter	75.6	123
108	Jin Choi	75.7	27
109	Christofer Blomstrand	75.7	130
110	Tapio Pulkkanen	75.8	63
111	Richard Green	75.8	82
112	Zander Lombard	75.9	95
113	Pontus Widegren	75.9	82
114	David Howell	75.9	63
115	Johan Edfors	75.9	70
116	Sebastian Heisele	76.0	44
117	Scott Fernandez	76.1	147
118	Rak hyun Cho	76.1	111
119	Simon Khan	76.1	142
120	Soomin Lee	76.2	4
121	Mark Foster	76.2	DNP
122	Charlie Ford	76.3	82
123	Pep Angles	76.4	12
124	Daniel Im	76.4	101
125	Josh Geary	76.5	56
126	Clement Sordet	76.6	40
127	Mikael Lundberg	76.7	73
128	Angel Cabrera	76.9	111
129	Sebastian Soderberg	76.9	111
130	Oliver Farr	77.0	101
131	Ross McGowan	77.1	63
132	Mark Tullo	77.2	82
133	Bradley Neil	77.3	123
134	Jason Norris	77.4	56
135	Birgir Hafthorsson	77.8	79
136	Jack Munro	77.8	111
137	Kim Koivu	77.8	7
138	Pelle Edberg	79.4	111
139	Jose Maria Olazabal	81.1	DNP
140	Ricardo Santos	81.5	80
141	Matthew Jordan	81.6	123
142	Robin Dawson	81.6	111
143	Sam Locke	81.6	60
144	Harry Ellis	81.6	111
145	Vitor Lopes	81.6	142
146	Afonso Giro	81.6	153
147	Tomas Silva	81.6	95
148	Tomas Melo Gouveia	81.6	153
149	Miguel Gasper	81.6	123
150	Joao Carlota	81.6	147
151	Tiago Cruz	81.6	130
	JC Ritchie	late entry	61
	Gian-Marco Petrozzi	late entry	68
	Hunter Stewart	late entry	94
	Freddie Jacobson	late entry	145
	Joao Ramos	late entry	151
	Tiago Rodrigues	late entry	155
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 92. The average is 207. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)
Players are listed in order starting with the top pick to win the event. The Finish Estimate reflects each player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, and recent performance in the event. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Sep. 16, 2018)

September 17, 2018 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Dustin Johnson is no. 1 for the 17th straight week.

#	Thru Sep. 16, 2018	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Dustin Johnson	46	1922	1
2	Justin Rose	47	1751	2
3	Justin Thomas	52	1751	3
4	Brooks Koepka	44	1725	4
5	Rickie Fowler	48	1717	5
6	Tiger Woods	21	1637	6
7	Patrick Cantlay	34	1557	7
8	Paul Casey	47	1512	8
9	Rory McIlroy	43	1496	9
10	Tony Finau	57	1460	10
11	Jordan Spieth	53	1459	11
12	Jason Day	43	1410	12
13	Jon Rahm	50	1378	13
14	Webb Simpson	53	1372	15
15	Francesco Molinari	50	1369	14
16	Tommy Fleetwood	59	1336	16
17	Phil Mickelson	49	1247	17
18	Hideki Matsuyama	48	1235	18
19	Louis Oosthuizen	44	1229	19
20	Henrik Stenson	46	1190	20
21	Patrick Reed	66	1136	21
22	Matt Kuchar	61	1105	22
23	Alex Noren	51	1090	23
24	Xander Schauffele	54	1074	24
25	Marc Leishman	52	1068	25
26	Tyrrell Hatton	53	1062	26
27	Adam Scott	45	1060	27
28	Kyle Stanley	54	1047	28
29	Bryson DeChambeau	59	1045	29
30	Rafa Cabrera Bello	64	993	30
31	Zach Johnson	52	965	31
32	Kevin Kisner	58	958	32
33	Ian Poulter	59	950	33
34	Brian Harman	55	926	34
35	Ryan Moore	48	918	35
36	Charley Hoffman	61	917	36
37	Joaquin Niemann	15	914	37
38	Bubba Watson	50	908	38
39	Cameron Smith	54	900	39
40	Charles Howell	52	869	40
41	Brandt Snedeker	47	865	41
42	Branden Grace	54	861	42
43	Daniel Berger	53	861	44
44	Steve Stricker	27	855	46
45	Kevin Na	52	855	45
46	Adam Hadwin	54	852	43
47	Emiliano Grillo	56	844	47
48	Keegan Bradley	56	843	48
49	Gary Woodland	55	837	49
50	Pat Perez	52	832	50
51	Sergio Garcia	46	809	51
52	Chez Reavie	56	788	53
53	Jason Dufner	49	785	52
54	Graham DeLaet	28	782	54
55	Kevin Chappell	55	778	56
56	Russell Henley	50	776	55
57	Billy Horschel	55	776	57
58	Stewart Cink	52	767	58
59	Charl Schwartzel	50	757	59
60	Matthew Fitzpatrick	55	745	60
61	Luke List	62	740	61
62	Jamie Lovemark	54	739	63
63	Chesson Hadley	43	732	64
64	Byeong Hun An	59	728	62
65	Aaron Wise	37	726	65
66	Thomas Pieters	53	716	66
67	Brendan Steele	47	688	67
68	Bud Cauley	46	686	68
69	Shane Lowry	54	679	70
70	Jimmy Walker	50	677	69
71	Jason Kokrak	57	665	72
72	Bernd Wiesberger	43	663	71
73	Peter Uihlein	58	628	73
74	Kevin Streelman	53	615	74
75	JB Holmes	52	612	75
76	Thorbjorn Olesen	54	600	79
77	Russell Knox	64	598	78
78	Anirban Lahiri	55	597	80
79	Ryan Palmer	42	596	81
80	Kevin Tway	60	593	82
81	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	59	592	76
82	Chris Kirk	58	585	84
83	Martin Laird	49	585	83
84	Andrew Putnam	33	584	85
85	Beau Hossler	39	583	86
86	Brian Gay	56	580	87
87	Lucas Glover	47	577	77
88	Danny Lee	65	571	88
89	Abraham Ancer	36	564	89
90	CT Pan	63	551	90
91	Bill Haas	51	545	91
92	Nick Watney	49	534	94
93	Lee Westwood	46	531	93
94	Ross Fisher	51	526	92
95	Austin Cook	34	523	95
96	Jhonattan Vegas	59	521	96
97	Rory Sabbatini	52	518	97
98	Sean O’Hair	51	514	99
99	Eddie Pepperell	45	511	107
100	Bronson Burgoon	28	506	102
101	Ryan Fox	48	502	98
102	Haotong Li	50	501	101
103	JJ Spaun	58	501	103
104	James Hahn	54	499	104
105	Si Woo Kim	60	495	106
106	Keith Mitchell	35	495	105
107	Julian Suri	40	490	100
108	Ollie Schniederjans	57	481	109
109	Patrick Rodgers	57	478	110
110	Joel Dahmen	48	478	112
111	Scott Piercy	49	475	111
112	Graeme McDowell	57	467	113
113	Grayson Murray	52	466	115
114	Andy Sullivan	52	460	114
115	Harold Varner	63	454	116
116	Dylan Frittelli	58	450	119
117	William McGirt	55	449	117
118	Erik Van Rooyen	27	441	121
119	John Oda	12	436	108
120	Chris Wood	53	432	133
121	Brice Garnett	37	429	120
122	Vaughn Taylor	52	426	122
123	Scott Brown	61	425	123
124	Morgan Hoffmann	39	425	124
125	Ryan Armour	55	419	126
126	Martin Kaymer	53	417	130
127	Seung-yul Noh	32	415	131
128	Hudson Swafford	49	415	127
129	Andrew Landry	32	415	132
130	Scott Stallings	59	415	128
131	Sam Saunders	54	413	129
132	David Lingmerth	61	412	125
133	Victor Dubuisson	25	410	134
134	Brandon Hagy	30	409	135
135	Sam Burns	15	409	118
136	Joost Luiten	43	404	136
137	Jorge Campillo	54	403	138
138	Sung Kang	61	400	137
139	Chase Seiffert	8	399
140	Alexander Bjork	51	393	141
141	Nick Taylor	60	390	142
142	Miguel Angel Jimenez	12	390	143
143	Paul Dunne	53	387	139
144	Michael Lorenzo-Vera	45	385	140
145	Ryan Blaum	58	383	144
146	Hideto Tanihara	42	379	160
147	Jim Furyk	33	378	145
148	Brandon Harkins	34	376	146
149	Mackenzie Hughes	60	374	147
150	Tom Hoge	53	372	150
151	Soren Kjeldsen	54	371	159
152	Seamus Power	58	369	151
153	Michael Thompson	45	369	153
154	Wesley Bryan	50	367	149
155	Ted Potter	35	365	152
156	JT Poston	55	363	154
157	Ben Martin	47	360	158
158	Tyler Duncan	36	360	157
159	David Hearn	57	359	155
160	Aaron Baddeley	51	357	156
161	Jerry Kelly	11	357	163
162	Patton Kizzire	55	348	164
163	Sam Ryder	32	346	165
164	Alexander Levy	51	346	167
165	Kelly Kraft	60	345	166
166	Robert Garrigus	56	344	161
167	Jordan Smith	50	344	175
168	Richy Werenski	60	342	168
169	Chad Campbell	60	342	162
170	Trey Mullinax	57	341	169
171	Dylan Meyer	12	339	148
172	John Huh	57	338	170
173	Matthew Southgate	54	336	173
174	Whee Kim	59	336	172
175	Harris English	60	334	171
176	Richard Sterne	45	333	174
177	Benjamin Hebert	48	328	184
178	Dean Burmester	46	324	177
179	Doug Ghim	9	321	179
180	Troy Merritt	61	320	180
181	Johnson Wagner	53	319	176
182	Matt Jones	52	317	183
183	Denny McCarthy	30	313	185
184	Michael Kim	54	307	186
185	Andrew Johnston	41	307	181
186	Adrian Otaegui	55	307	192
187	Chris Stroud	50	305	193
188	Seung-su Han	14	304	189
189	Pablo Larrazabal	49	304	201
190	Satoshi Kodaira	27	304	188
191	Matt Wallace	47	303	194
192	Brian Stuard	64	300	197
193	Jim Herman	37	299	182
194	Alex Cejka	60	298	198
195	Ben Crane	53	295	196
196	Fabrizio Zanotti	47	293	191
197	Corey Conners	36	293	195
198	Retief Goosen	42	292	200
199	George Coetzee	54	291	199
200	Anders Albertson	9	291	261
201	Andrea Pavan	27	290	204
202	Tyrone van Aswegen	67	284	202
203	Thomas Detry	51	278	229
204	Cameron Percy	47	278	206
205	Lucas Bjerregaard	56	277	209
206	Cameron Davis	11	277	178
207	Brandon Stone	50	277	212
208	Nacho Elvira	55	276	203
209	Luke Donald	34	275	210
210	JJ Henry	61	274	207
211	Robert Streb	62	273	208
212	Kyung-tae Kim	14	270	187
213	Shubhankar Sharma	33	268	205
214	Callum Shinkwin	41	267	215
215	Darren Fichardt	41	266	211
216	Richie Ramsay	52	263	213
217	Robert Rock	49	263	217
218	Curtis Luck	28	263	216
219	Scott Hend	57	263	218
220	Rafael Campos	12	262	190
221	Camilo Villegas	42	260	219
222	Stephen Gallacher	50	259	222
223	Jonas Blixt	52	258	223
224	Nicolas Colsaerts	56	257	214
225	Marcus Kinhult	22	257	226
226	Danny Willett	47	251	231
227	Talor Gooch	36	250	228
228	Henrik Norlander	14	250	220
229	Chris Paisley	51	249	221
230	Dominic Bozzelli	49	248	224
231	Blayne Barber	50	247	227
232	Matthieu Pavon	51	246	230
233	Derek Fathauer	57	245	234
234	Jeunghun Wang	59	244	233
235	Julian Etulain	30	243	225
236	Michael Putnam	8	243	237
237	Aaron Rai	38	239	232
238	Adam Schenk	36	238	249
239	David Horsey	50	236	235
240	Tag Ridings	25	230	242
241	Anthony Wall	29	229	243
242	Jaco van Zyl	25	229	247
243	Shawn Stefani	58	228	246
244	Zac Blair	61	228	239
245	Nate Lashley	24	227	236
246	Padraig Harrington	49	227	271
247	David Lipsky	55	226	238
248	Peter Malnati	61	225	250
249	Benjamin Silverman	35	222	240
250	Daniel Summerhays	55	222	259
251	Ashun Wu	53	221	277
252	Maximilian Kieffer	49	221	251
253	Daisuke Kataoka	17	220	257
254	Ricky Barnes	60	220	248
255	Will MacKenzie	19	220	253
256	Sam Horsfield	34	219	241
257	Scott Jamieson	53	219	245
258	Graeme Storm	39	219	256
259	Wade Ormsby	49	217	265
260	Andres Gonzales	30	217	254
261	David Drysdale	59	217	273
262	Joakim Lagergren	50	217	244
263	Martin Flores	60	216	252
264	Mikko Ilonen	41	215	258
265	Lee Slattery	52	213	262
266	Tim Wilkinson	30	213	260
267	Smylie Kaufman	50	213	264
268	Mikko Korhonen	47	210	268
269	Joachim B Hansen	9	210	266
270	Hunter Mahan	54	210	263
271	Roger Sloan	9	209	368
272	Bradley Dredge	48	206	288
273	Richard McEvoy	29	205	292
274	John Peterson	32	205	255
275	Geoff Ogilvy	45	204	267
276	Nino Bertasio	60	201	270
277	Fabian Gomez	53	198	280
278	Jonathan Byrd	41	196	274
279	Boo Weekley	28	195	278
280	Thongchai Jaidee	49	193	269
281	Nicholas Lindheim	56	193	279
282	Greg Chalmers	51	193	276
283	Ashley Chesters	50	193	281
284	Haydn Porteous	62	192	282
285	Rob Oppenheim	38	190	272
286	Alex Prugh	8	186	296
287	Sean Crocker	14	185	284
288	Sebastian Munoz	27	183	275
289	Martin Piller	39	183	283
290	Poom Saksansin	18	182	289
291	Jacques Kruyswijk	27	182	285
292	Austin Connelly	42	181	317
293	Trevor Immelman	25	180	298
294	Andres Romero	39	180	305
295	TJ Vogel	8	180	290
296	Kristoffer Broberg	15	180	300
297	Tom Lovelady	35	178	286
298	Oliver Fisher	54	177	287
299	Rikard Karlberg	26	176	297
300	DA Points	48	174	302
301	Romain Wattel	51	173	295
302	Paul Waring	48	172	294
303	Yuta Ikeda	23	172	306
304	Stephan Jaeger	38	171	301
305	Sang-Moon Bae	20	171	359
306	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	30	171	293
307	Lanto Griffin	33	170	299
308	Jason Scrivener	54	170	331
309	Renato Paratore	56	169	307
310	KJ Choi	40	169	309
311	Sung-jae Im	8	168
312	Gavin Green	30	168	303
313	Chad Collins	32	168	310
314	JC Ritchie	10	168	312
315	Andrew Dodt	49	167	308
316	Spencer Levin	37	166	315
317	Jose-Filipe Lima	29	165	316
318	Brian Campbell	28	164	342
319	Rick Lamb	34	164	321
320	Billy Hurley	52	164	313
321	Ryo Ishikawa	29	162	314
322	Cameron Tringale	61	161	311
323	Brett Coletta	10	161	327
324	Thomas Aiken	46	160	322
325	Kyle Reifers	37	160	326
326	Greg Owen	21	160	318
327	Steve Wheatcroft	46	159	336
328	Julien Guerrier	30	158	330
329	Vijay Singh	31	158	332
330	Jens Dantorp	34	157	319
331	Adam Bland	28	156	328
332	Matthias Schwab	23	154	320
333	Robby Shelton	11	154	291
334	Jonathan Randolph	55	153	333
335	Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	39	152	323
336	Marc Warren	54	152	329
337	Cameron Champ	10	151	335
338	Yusaku Miyazato	28	151	324
339	Jake McLeod	9	150	340
340	Angel Cabrera	25	150	325
341	Cody Gribble	54	149	338
342	Lucas Herbert	24	148	356
343	Brett Stegmaier	55	147	337
344	Ryan Brehm	31	145	343
345	James Morrison	57	145	339
346	Tim Herron	24	144	353
347	Parker McLachlin	15	144	334
348	Johan Carlsson	35	143	350
349	Justin Walters	56	143	344
350	Mark Anderson	27	143	364
351	Wes Roach	8	142	304
352	Roberto Castro	30	142	349
353	Will Wilcox	21	140	375
354	Trevor Fisher	21	140	352
355	Marcel Siem	54	140	345
356	Phachara Khongwatmai	50	140	346
357	Hennie Otto	16	140	354
358	Henric Sturehed	19	139	341
359	Peter Hanson	37	133	351
360	Micah Lauren Shin	9	132	355
361	Carlos Ortiz	10	131	347
362	Ethan Tracy	30	131	357
363	Paul Peterson	47	131	361
364	Jamie Donaldson	45	130	365
365	Ockie Strydom	9	130	370
366	Matthew Nixon	35	128	363
367	Davis Love	26	128	373
368	Juvic Pagunsan	9	128	369
369	Alejandro Canizares	41	127	360
370	Mark Brown	8	127	377
371	Stuart Appleby	37	125	362
372	Matteo Manassero	52	125	366
373	Connor Syme	29	125	367
374	Ricardo Gouveia	58	123	371
375	Jacques Blaauw	14	123	380
376	Tom Lewis	39	123	382
377	Maverick McNealy	14	123	358
378	Freddie Jacobson	10	123	383
379	Matt Every	64	123	376
380	Richard Bland	52	122	378
381	Steven Brown	26	121	372
382	Max Homa	22	121	465
383	Bryce Molder	26	120	384
384	Chris Hanson	55	120	379
385	John Merrick	24	120	374
386	Bill Lunde	10	120	381
387	Khalin Joshi	9	119	348
388	Jonathan Thomson	21	119	445
389	Scott Vincent	32	119	390
390	Chase Koepka	28	118	397
391	Michael Hoey	13	118	386
392	Roberto Diaz	36	117	418
393	Prayad Marksaeng	9	117	387
394	Jason Gore	15	117	389
395	Matthew Baldwin	27	115	425
396	Gregory Havret	56	115	388
397	Sam Brazel	49	113	402
398	DJ Trahan	14	112	394
399	Gaganjeet Bhullar	26	111	396
400	Panuphol Pittayarat	17	111	393
More \| Less

KLM Open

September 12, 2018 Thomas Hawley Euro Events, Picks

Eddie Pepperell

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Eddie Pepperell	53.6	6
2	Ryan Fox	57.2	75
3	Lee Westwood	60.5	36
4	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	60.5	120
5	Andy Sullivan	61.2	28
6	Ross Fisher	61.8	126
7	Romain Wattel	61.9	88
8	Chris Wood	62.0	2
9	Michael Lorenzo-Vera	62.3	75
10	Erik Van Rooyen	63.3	11
11	Jorge Campillo	63.5	15
12	Haotong Li	63.8	24
13	Fabrizio Zanotti	63.9	75
14	Paul Dunne	64.5	75
15	Maximilian Kieffer	65.7	36
16	Andrea Pavan	65.9	20
17	David Horsey	66.1	68
18	Matt Wallace	66.2	DNP
19	Pablo Larrazabal	66.5	11
20	Richie Ramsay	66.8	46
21	Soren Kjeldsen	66.8	6
22	Martin Kaymer	66.9	15
23	Hideto Tanihara	67.0	3
24	Adrian Otaegui	67.1	24
25	Andrew Johnston	67.2	75
26	Thomas Detry	67.2	3
27	Mikko Ilonen	67.4	DNP
28	Benjamin Hebert	67.5	11
29	Nacho Elvira	67.5	97
30	Mikko Korhonen	67.6	24
31	Matthew Southgate	67.8	24
32	Wade Ormsby	68.1	20
33	Nicolas Colsaerts	68.4	64
34	Alexander Levy	68.6	20
35	Darren Fichardt	68.6	74
36	George Coetzee	69.0	44
37	Oliver Fisher	69.1	120
38	Scott Hend	69.6	DNP
39	Scott Jamieson	69.7	68
40	Aaron Rai	69.8	75
41	Sam Horsfield	69.8	64
42	Richard McEvoy	70.2	15
43	Joakim Lagergren	70.3	113
44	Jordan Smith	70.3	10
45	Alejandro Canizares	70.6	97
46	Richard Bland	70.8	44
47	Haydn Porteous	71.0	28
48	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	71.2	88
49	Jeunghun Wang	71.3	36
50	Peter Hanson	71.5	75
51	Matthieu Pavon	71.5	88
52	Nino Bertasio	71.6	46
53	Jason Scrivener	71.7	15
54	Phachara Khongwatmai	71.7	120
55	Shubhankar Sharma	71.7	113
56	David Lipsky	71.9	138
57	Gavin Green	72.1	88
58	Justin Walters	72.2	53
59	Padraig Harrington	72.3	5
60	Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	72.4	97
61	James Morrison	72.4	75
62	Ashun Wu	72.6	1
63	Ashley Chesters	72.7	28
64	Bradley Dredge	72.9	6
65	Julien Guerrier	73.0	36
66	Jacques Kruyswijk	73.0	46
67	Paul Waring	73.2	97
68	Thongchai Jaidee	73.2	97
69	Chris Hanson	73.2	97
70	Adam Bland	73.3	46
71	Matthew Nixon	73.3	46
72	Austin Connelly	73.4	11
73	Daniel Brooks	73.4	WD
74	David Drysdale	73.4	6
75	Renato Paratore	73.5	36
76	Marc Warren	73.5	141
77	Lucas Herbert	73.6	28
78	Matteo Manassero	73.9	57
79	Jens Dantorp	74.0	WD
80	Matthias Schwab	74.1	75
81	Jaco van Zyl	74.2	28
82	Yusaku Miyazato	74.4	130
83	Gregory Bourdy	74.5	57
84	Raphael Jacquelin	74.5	97
85	Steven Brown	74.5	120
86	David Howell	74.7	113
87	Paul Peterson	74.7	41
88	Edoardo Molinari	74.8	97
89	Sebastien Gros	74.9	75
90	Ricardo Gouveia	74.9	113
91	Marcel Siem	74.9	130
92	Connor Syme	74.9	57
93	Gregory Havret	74.9	41
94	Andrew Dodt	75.0	46
95	Ryan Evans	75.1	97
96	Jeff Winther	75.2	120
97	Lasse Jensen	75.3	88
98	Matthew Baldwin	75.3	20
99	Pedro Oriol	75.4	75
100	Henric Sturehed	75.4	73
101	Jonathan Thomson	75.5	15
102	Laurie Canter	75.5	113
103	Felipe Aguilar	75.6	57
104	Nick Cullen	75.6	75
105	Daniel Im	75.6	41
106	Sebastian Heisele	75.7	64
107	Chase Koepka	75.7	28
108	Jin Choi	75.7	57
109	Sam Brazel	75.7	28
110	Tapio Pulkkanen	75.7	141
111	Adrien Saddier	75.8	WD
112	Mark Foster	75.8	WD
113	Christofer Blomstrand	75.8	136
114	Alvaro Quiros	75.8	146
115	Zander Lombard	76.0	113
116	Pontus Widegren	76.1	97
117	Rak hyun Cho	76.1	88
118	Brett Rumford	76.2	WD
119	Miguel Tabuena	76.3	DNP
120	Scott Fernandez	76.3	97
121	SSP Chawrasia	76.4	75
122	Charlie Ford	76.5	97
123	Soomin Lee	76.5	53
124	Clement Sordet	76.5	97
125	Angel Cabrera	76.6	130
126	Steve Webster	76.6	46
127	Pep Angles	76.6	88
128	Johan Edfors	76.7	64
129	Oliver Farr	77.2	120
130	Mark Tullo	77.3	88
131	Josh Geary	77.3	28
132	Bradley Neil	77.4	68
133	Jason Norris	77.6	144
134	Simon Khan	77.7	57
135	Simon Dyson	77.8	144
136	Kim Koivu	78.1	136
137	Oscar Serna	78.1	130
138	Luca Cianchetti	80.1	130
139	Ricardo Gonzalez	80.4	53
140	Kevin Stadler	81.0	68
141	Max Albertus	81.2	57
142	Reinier Saxton	81.5	97
143	Jurrian van der Vaart	81.5	127
144	Jamie Elson	81.5	127
145	Luke Joy	81.6	113
146	Matthew Jordan	81.6	68
147	Kiet van der Weele	81.6	138
148	Lukas Euler	81.6	127
149	Jerry Ji	81.6	88
150	Stan Kraai	81.6	148
151	Koen Kouwenaar	81.6	97
152	Aydan Verdonk	81.6	149
153	Ralph Miller	81.6	138
154	Mark Reynolds	81.6	53
155	Dylan Boshart	81.6	141
156	Robbie Van West	81.6	DNP
157	Davey Porsius	81.6	97
	Robbie van West	late entry	135
	Maarten Bosch	late entry	147
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 76. The average is 206. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Sep. 9, 2018)

September 12, 2018 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Dustin Johnson is no. 1 for the 16th straight week.

#	Thru Sep. 9, 2018	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Dustin Johnson	46	1920	1
2	Justin Rose	47	1753	4
3	Justin Thomas	52	1746	2
4	Brooks Koepka	44	1717	3
5	Rickie Fowler	48	1714	5
6	Tiger Woods	21	1633	8
7	Patrick Cantlay	34	1558	6
8	Paul Casey	47	1512	7
9	Rory McIlroy	43	1499	10
10	Tony Finau	57	1459	11
11	Jordan Spieth	53	1458	9
12	Jason Day	43	1409	12
13	Jon Rahm	50	1378	13
14	Francesco Molinari	51	1369	14
15	Webb Simpson	53	1368	15
16	Tommy Fleetwood	60	1334	16
17	Phil Mickelson	49	1251	17
18	Hideki Matsuyama	48	1234	19
19	Louis Oosthuizen	44	1225	18
20	Henrik Stenson	46	1189	20
21	Patrick Reed	66	1132	21
22	Matt Kuchar	61	1103	22
23	Alex Noren	51	1091	24
24	Xander Schauffele	55	1068	30
25	Marc Leishman	52	1067	25
26	Tyrrell Hatton	54	1062	26
27	Adam Scott	45	1059	23
28	Kyle Stanley	54	1049	27
29	Bryson DeChambeau	60	1039	28
30	Rafa Cabrera Bello	65	991	29
31	Zach Johnson	52	962	32
32	Kevin Kisner	58	959	31
33	Ian Poulter	59	948	33
34	Brian Harman	55	925	34
35	Ryan Moore	48	922	35
36	Charley Hoffman	61	914	38
37	Joaquin Niemann	15	913	37
38	Bubba Watson	50	910	40
39	Cameron Smith	55	898	36
40	Charles Howell	52	872	42
41	Brandt Snedeker	47	866	39
42	Branden Grace	54	861	43
43	Adam Hadwin	54	858	47
44	Daniel Berger	53	857	44
45	Kevin Na	52	855	49
46	Steve Stricker	27	854	46
47	Emiliano Grillo	56	847	41
48	Keegan Bradley	56	842	56
49	Gary Woodland	55	835	50
50	Pat Perez	52	834	45
51	Sergio Garcia	46	813	48
52	Jason Dufner	49	787	52
53	Chez Reavie	56	786	51
54	Graham DeLaet	28	784	53
55	Russell Henley	50	781	54
56	Kevin Chappell	55	778	55
57	Billy Horschel	55	776	66
58	Stewart Cink	52	766	57
59	Charl Schwartzel	50	760	60
60	Matthew Fitzpatrick	56	744	64
61	Luke List	62	743	58
62	Byeong Hun An	59	743	63
63	Jamie Lovemark	54	740	62
64	Chesson Hadley	44	732	59
65	Aaron Wise	37	725	68
66	Thomas Pieters	53	716	61
67	Brendan Steele	47	690	65
68	Bud Cauley	46	684	69
69	Jimmy Walker	50	681	67
70	Shane Lowry	54	677	70
71	Bernd Wiesberger	43	666	71
72	Jason Kokrak	57	663	72
73	Peter Uihlein	59	627	73
74	Kevin Streelman	53	614	76
75	JB Holmes	52	611	77
76	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	59	608	74
77	Lucas Glover	46	599	79
78	Russell Knox	64	599	78
79	Thorbjorn Olesen	55	599	81
80	Anirban Lahiri	55	597	80
81	Ryan Palmer	42	593	75
82	Kevin Tway	61	592	85
83	Martin Laird	49	590	82
84	Chris Kirk	58	586	83
85	Andrew Putnam	34	584	94
86	Beau Hossler	39	583	86
87	Brian Gay	57	581	84
88	Danny Lee	65	569	88
89	Abraham Ancer	37	563	87
90	CT Pan	64	551	91
91	Bill Haas	51	549	90
92	Ross Fisher	50	547	89
93	Lee Westwood	46	545	93
94	Nick Watney	49	536	92
95	Austin Cook	35	523	104
96	Jhonattan Vegas	59	521	96
97	Rory Sabbatini	53	518	98
98	Ryan Fox	47	518	95
99	Sean O’Hair	51	515	99
100	Julian Suri	39	506	102
101	Haotong Li	50	504	97
102	Bronson Burgoon	28	503	103
103	JJ Spaun	59	502	100
104	James Hahn	54	498	105
105	Keith Mitchell	36	498	101
106	Si Woo Kim	60	495	106
107	Eddie Pepperell	45	495	107
108	John Oda	11	492	108
109	Ollie Schniederjans	58	482	110
110	Patrick Rodgers	57	480	111
111	Scott Piercy	49	477	109
112	Joel Dahmen	48	477	112
113	Graeme McDowell	57	469	114
114	Andy Sullivan	52	467	113
115	Grayson Murray	53	466	115
116	Harold Varner	63	453	118
117	William McGirt	55	451	117
118	Sam Burns	14	451	116
119	Dylan Frittelli	57	448	119
120	Brice Garnett	38	429	126
121	Erik Van Rooyen	26	427	121
122	Vaughn Taylor	52	427	123
123	Scott Brown	61	423	124
124	Morgan Hoffmann	39	422	127
125	David Lingmerth	60	418	130
126	Ryan Armour	56	417	125
127	Hudson Swafford	49	416	128
128	Scott Stallings	60	416	129
129	Sam Saunders	54	414	131
130	Martin Kaymer	53	414	122
131	Seung-yul Noh	32	414	133
132	Andrew Landry	33	413	140
133	Chris Wood	53	412	136
134	Victor Dubuisson	26	411	132
135	Brandon Hagy	31	408	138
136	Joost Luiten	44	406	137
137	Sung Kang	61	401	141
138	Jorge Campillo	54	399	134
139	Paul Dunne	53	398	135
140	Michael Lorenzo-Vera	45	397	152
141	Alexander Bjork	51	393	139
142	Nick Taylor	60	389	142
143	Miguel Angel Jimenez	13	387	120
144	Ryan Blaum	59	383	143
145	Jim Furyk	33	380	144
146	Brandon Harkins	34	375	147
147	Mackenzie Hughes	61	374	146
148	Dylan Meyer	11	372	145
149	Wesley Bryan	51	370	148
150	Tom Hoge	54	370	149
151	Seamus Power	58	368	150
152	Ted Potter	36	366	157
153	Michael Thompson	45	366	151
154	JT Poston	56	365	153
155	David Hearn	56	363	154
156	Aaron Baddeley	50	360	155
157	Tyler Duncan	36	359	156
158	Ben Martin	47	357	160
159	Soren Kjeldsen	54	357	165
160	Hideto Tanihara	41	356	177
161	Robert Garrigus	55	353	159
162	Chad Campbell	59	351	162
163	Jerry Kelly	11	350	167
164	Patton Kizzire	55	347	158
165	Sam Ryder	33	346	163
166	Kelly Kraft	61	345	164
167	Alexander Levy	51	343	161
168	Richy Werenski	61	342	168
169	Trey Mullinax	58	342	166
170	John Huh	57	339	169
171	Harris English	60	335	172
172	Whee Kim	60	334	173
173	Matthew Southgate	54	333	174
174	Richard Sterne	46	332	170
175	Jordan Smith	49	330	175
176	Johnson Wagner	52	329	176
177	Dean Burmester	46	325	171
178	Cameron Davis	10	324	178
179	Doug Ghim	9	321	246
180	Troy Merritt	61	321	181
181	Andrew Johnston	41	320	180
182	Jim Herman	36	319	179
183	Matt Jones	53	319	182
184	Benjamin Hebert	48	313	191
185	Denny McCarthy	30	310	187
186	Michael Kim	54	310	184
187	Kyung-tae Kim	14	309	188
188	Satoshi Kodaira	27	305	190
189	Seung-su Han	14	305	189
190	Rafael Campos	11	305	185
191	Fabrizio Zanotti	47	305	200
192	Adrian Otaegui	55	304	183
193	Chris Stroud	51	303	192
194	Matt Wallace	47	303	186
195	Corey Conners	35	300	193
196	Ben Crane	52	300	195
197	Brian Stuard	64	299	196
198	Alex Cejka	60	298	198
199	George Coetzee	54	298	194
200	Retief Goosen	42	291	201
201	Pablo Larrazabal	49	289	208
202	Tyrone van Aswegen	66	288	202
203	Nacho Elvira	55	286	223
204	Andrea Pavan	27	282	197
205	Shubhankar Sharma	32	281	199
206	Cameron Percy	47	281	203
207	JJ Henry	60	280	205
208	Robert Streb	61	279	206
209	Lucas Bjerregaard	57	278	231
210	Luke Donald	34	278	204
211	Darren Fichardt	41	276	235
212	Brandon Stone	51	274	207
213	Richie Ramsay	52	268	209
214	Nicolas Colsaerts	56	265	224
215	Callum Shinkwin	42	265	230
216	Curtis Luck	27	264	216
217	Robert Rock	50	264	210
218	Scott Hend	58	262	213
219	Camilo Villegas	43	261	219
220	Henrik Norlander	14	260	212
221	Chris Paisley	51	259	218
222	Stephen Gallacher	51	259	228
223	Jonas Blixt	52	258	214
224	Dominic Bozzelli	49	258	220
225	Julian Etulain	30	257	227
226	Marcus Kinhult	22	256	211
227	Blayne Barber	49	256	226
228	Talor Gooch	35	256	225
229	Thomas Detry	50	255	215
230	Matthieu Pavon	50	253	221
231	Danny Willett	48	252	217
232	Aaron Rai	37	249	222
233	Jeunghun Wang	58	248	241
234	Derek Fathauer	57	248	229
235	David Horsey	50	246	236
236	Nate Lashley	23	243	233
237	Michael Putnam	9	239	239
238	David Lipsky	55	234	238
239	Zac Blair	60	231	240
240	Benjamin Silverman	34	231	243
241	Sam Horsfield	33	230	234
242	Tag Ridings	26	230	242
243	Anthony Wall	29	228	245
244	Joakim Lagergren	50	227	237
245	Scott Jamieson	53	226	247
246	Shawn Stefani	57	224	248
247	Jaco van Zyl	25	223	232
248	Ricky Barnes	59	223	251
249	Adam Schenk	36	222	249
250	Peter Malnati	60	222	252
251	Maximilian Kieffer	49	222	254
252	Martin Flores	60	221	250
253	Will MacKenzie	20	219	256
254	Andres Gonzales	31	219	253
255	John Peterson	31	219	255
256	Graeme Storm	40	218	258
257	Daisuke Kataoka	17	218	261
258	Mikko Ilonen	42	217	244
259	Daniel Summerhays	54	217	259
260	Tim Wilkinson	31	215	257
261	Anders Albertson	9	215	264
262	Lee Slattery	53	212	260
263	Hunter Mahan	53	211	265
264	Smylie Kaufman	50	210	266
265	Wade Ormsby	48	209	262
266	Joachim B Hansen	10	209	269
267	Geoff Ogilvy	45	207	267
268	Mikko Korhonen	47	205	268
269	Thongchai Jaidee	49	203	263
270	Nino Bertasio	60	202	284
271	Padraig Harrington	49	201	270
272	Rob Oppenheim	38	198	271
273	David Drysdale	59	197	277
274	Jonathan Byrd	41	195	274
275	Sebastian Munoz	27	195	276
276	Greg Chalmers	51	194	273
277	Ashun Wu	53	194	315
278	Boo Weekley	28	192	281
279	Nicholas Lindheim	56	190	280
280	Fabian Gomez	52	190	278
281	Ashley Chesters	49	189	275
282	Haydn Porteous	62	188	303
283	Martin Piller	39	188	283
284	Sean Crocker	14	186	285
285	Jacques Kruyswijk	26	186	272
286	Tom Lovelady	34	186	286
287	Oliver Fisher	54	183	282
288	Bradley Dredge	48	183	279
289	Poom Saksansin	18	181	290
290	TJ Vogel	8	181	288
291	Robby Shelton	10	181	292
292	Richard McEvoy	29	181	338
293	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	29	179	322
294	Paul Waring	48	179	287
295	Romain Wattel	51	178	291
296	Alex Prugh	8	178	297
297	Rikard Karlberg	27	178	289
298	Trevor Immelman	25	178	293
299	Lanto Griffin	32	177	298
300	Kristoffer Broberg	15	177	299
301	Stephan Jaeger	38	177	296
302	DA Points	49	175	300
303	Gavin Green	29	175	341
304	Wes Roach	8	174	301
305	Andres Romero	39	174	294
306	Yuta Ikeda	23	172	305
307	Renato Paratore	56	170	295
308	Andrew Dodt	49	169	302
309	KJ Choi	40	169	308
310	Chad Collins	32	168	309
311	Cameron Tringale	60	166	314
312	JC Ritchie	10	166	316
313	Billy Hurley	52	165	313
314	Ryo Ishikawa	29	165	307
315	Spencer Levin	37	165	321
316	Jose-Filipe Lima	29	164	319
317	Austin Connelly	41	163	318
318	Greg Owen	22	162	317
319	Jens Dantorp	33	162	306
320	Matthias Schwab	22	162	304
321	Rick Lamb	35	162	325
322	Thomas Aiken	47	161	330
323	Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	39	160	311
324	Yusaku Miyazato	27	160	310
325	Angel Cabrera	24	160	327
326	Kyle Reifers	37	159	326
327	Brett Coletta	10	159	328
328	Adam Bland	27	159	312
329	Marc Warren	54	158	320
330	Julien Guerrier	29	157	348
331	Jason Scrivener	54	157	323
332	Vijay Singh	31	156	332
333	Jonathan Randolph	55	156	331
334	Parker McLachlin	14	155	329
335	Cameron Champ	9	153	335
336	Steve Wheatcroft	46	153	334
337	Brett Stegmaier	54	152	337
338	Cody Gribble	55	151	336
339	James Morrison	57	149	333
340	Jake McLeod	9	149	343
341	Henric Sturehed	18	149	324
342	Brian Campbell	28	148	342
343	Ryan Brehm	32	146	344
344	Justin Walters	56	146	347
345	Marcel Siem	54	144	340
346	Phachara Khongwatmai	49	144	387
347	Carlos Ortiz	10	143	349
348	Khalin Joshi	8	143	345
349	Roberto Castro	30	143	339
350	Johan Carlsson	36	142	351
351	Peter Hanson	37	140	350
352	Trevor Fisher	22	140	352
353	Tim Herron	24	140	353
354	Hennie Otto	16	139	354
355	Micah Lauren Shin	8	138	358
356	Lucas Herbert	23	138	357
357	Ethan Tracy	29	137	355
358	Maverick McNealy	13	137	359
359	Sang-Moon Bae	19	137	356
360	Alejandro Canizares	41	135	346
361	Paul Peterson	47	130	367
362	Stuart Appleby	37	130	370
363	Matthew Nixon	34	130	360
364	Mark Anderson	27	130	368
365	Jamie Donaldson	46	129	364
366	Matteo Manassero	52	129	362
367	Connor Syme	28	129	361
368	Roger Sloan	9	129	372
369	Juvic Pagunsan	9	128	369
370	Ockie Strydom	9	128	375
371	Ricardo Gouveia	58	128	365
372	Steven Brown	25	127	363
373	Davis Love	26	127	376
374	John Merrick	24	127	373
375	Will Wilcox	20	125	377
376	Matt Every	63	125	378
377	Mark Brown	8	125	380
378	Richard Bland	52	125	366
379	Chris Hanson	55	124	371
380	Jacques Blaauw	14	124	379
381	Bill Lunde	10	123	374
382	Tom Lewis	39	123	381
383	Freddie Jacobson	10	121	383
384	Bryce Molder	26	120	382
385	Shiv Kapur	19	118	385
386	Michael Hoey	14	116	390
387	Prayad Marksaeng	9	116	389
388	Gregory Havret	56	115	386
389	Jason Gore	16	115	396
390	Scott Vincent	31	115	391
391	Raphael Jacquelin	53	114	384
392	Young-han Song	12	114	388
393	Panuphol Pittayarat	17	112	394
394	DJ Trahan	15	111	402
395	Robert Karlsson	46	110	393
396	Gaganjeet Bhullar	25	108	403
397	Chase Koepka	27	108	419
398	Gregory Bourdy	60	108	399
399	Bernd Ritthammer	34	108	406
400	Christofer Blomstrand	24	108	392
More \| Less

A look at the BMW Championship

September 4, 2018 Thomas Hawley Narrative

I’m pretty sure you don’t care about doing this, but let’s just say you checked today’s Official World Golf Ratings, and there’s Bryson DeChambeau up from 12th last week to seventh now. And then you want to compare his rating with the one in the Hawley Ratings. Dig, dig, scroll down, and there he is, 28th, up from 36th last week. What gives?

It’s easy to overlook with DeChambeau having won the first two events in this year’s FedEx Cup series, but he’s had two stretches this year where he wasn’t performing anywhere near this well. From late July thru early August, he went thru a sequence where he withdrew from the Deere, was 51st in the British, made the top 20 in the soft field Porsche (Euro tour), was 30th in the Bridgestone, and missed the cut in the PGA. Earlier, from mid-January to mid-March, he missed the cut at Abu Dhabi (Euro tour) and the Farmers, made the top 10 at Phoenix, was 55th at the Pebble, outside the top 40 at the Genesis, and missed the cut at the Valspar. This not to knock DeChambeau, just noting that what you see now needs to be viewed with a wider lens if you want to be doing ratings-type comparisons.

Also, note that the Hawley Ratings provide a more accurate basis for predicting the outcome of events than the Official World Golf Ratings do. This statement is made after a detailed statistical comparison extending over multiple years. (The full detail will be provided at this website out toward the end of the year.)

The third stop in the FedEx Cup sequence is this weekend outside of Philadelphia and we have DeChambeau no better than the 17th pick. Obviously he’s the best guy in the field over the last two events, but even if you look at the last four, which is a very strong indicator of future performance, several others are better, and Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas are quite a bit better. Koepka was fifth in the Bridgestone, won the PGA, and then posted finishes of eighth and 12th in the first two FedEx Cup events. Thomas won the Bridgestone, was in the top 10 in the PGA and Northern Trust, Read more

BMW Championship

September 3, 2018 Thomas Hawley Picks, U.S. Events

Dustin Johnson

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Dustin Johnson	-11.5	24
2	Justin Rose	-1.3	2
3	Justin Thomas	2.5	12
4	Brooks Koepka	3.9	19
5	Rickie Fowler	5.3	8
6	Jason Day	9.5	24
7	Rory McIlroy	10.6	5
8	Tony Finau	13.5	8
9	Patrick Cantlay	14.1	55
10	Jordan Spieth	20.5	55
11	Francesco Molinari	21.4	8
12	Phil Mickelson	24.3	58
13	Paul Casey	25.1	WD
14	Tommy Fleetwood	25.9	8
15	Webb Simpson	25.9	6
16	Tiger Woods	26.0	6
17	Bryson DeChambeau	29.5	19
18	Louis Oosthuizen	30.8	58
19	Jon Rahm	32.2	24
20	Hideki Matsuyama	32.3	15
21	Adam Scott	33.3	51
22	Kyle Stanley	34.2	45
23	Tyrrell Hatton	34.3	29
24	Patrick Reed	36.5	19
25	Rafa Cabrera Bello	37.1	41
26	Henrik Stenson	37.3	29
27	Zach Johnson	37.6	33
28	Cameron Smith	40.0	65
29	Bubba Watson	40.6	16
30	Billy Horschel	41.5	3
31	Marc Leishman	41.6	41
32	Daniel Berger	41.8	DNP
33	Ian Poulter	42.4	51
34	Emiliano Grillo	43.8	61
35	Alex Noren	43.9	24
36	Gary Woodland	45.6	12
37	Brandt Snedeker	46.0	67
38	Kevin Na	46.7	12
39	Kevin Kisner	48.1	58
40	Adam Hadwin	49.5	19
41	Charles Howell	50.1	24
42	Keegan Bradley	51.0	1
43	Brian Harman	51.1	68
44	CT Pan	51.5	38
45	Ryan Palmer	51.8	65
46	Chris Kirk	51.8	41
47	Xander Schauffele	52.0	3
48	Chez Reavie	52.7	38
49	Aaron Wise	53.3	16
50	Abraham Ancer	54.4	51
51	Jason Kokrak	55.0	19
52	Pat Perez	55.6	55
53	Luke List	55.7	45
54	Chesson Hadley	55.9	61
55	Byeong Hun An	56.3	29
56	Peter Uihlein	59.7	38
57	Beau Hossler	59.7	33
58	Brian Gay	60.4	45
59	Brendan Steele	61.1	64
60	Andrew Putnam	61.2	16
61	JJ Spaun	62.7	45
62	Scott Piercy	63.1	45
63	Keith Mitchell	63.3	45
64	Brice Garnett	63.4	35
65	Austin Cook	63.9	29
66	Ryan Armour	64.4	51
67	Si Woo Kim	65.6	41
68	Andrew Landry	68.7	35
69	Ted Potter	68.7	35
70	Patton Kizzire	69.7	61
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 298. The average is 207. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)
Players are listed in order starting with the top pick to win the event. The Finish Estimate reflects each player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, and recent performance in the event. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public.

Omega European Masters

September 3, 2018 Thomas Hawley Euro Events, Picks

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Matthew Fitzpatrick	41.0	1
2	Thomas Pieters	51.3	105
3	Ryan Fox	53.5	30
4	Charl Schwartzel	55.7	8
5	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	59.0	45
6	Erik Van Rooyen	59.8	35
7	Miguel Angel Jimenez	59.8	68
8	Lee Westwood	60.1	12
9	Scott Hend	60.9	45
10	Danny Willett	61.3	59
11	Haotong Li	61.6	98
12	Jorge Campillo	61.8	55
13	Ross Fisher	62.6	59
14	Andy Sullivan	63.4	30
15	Richard Sterne	64.5	43
16	Chris Wood	64.7	23
17	Richie Ramsay	65.0	80
18	Andrea Pavan	65.5	80
19	Matt Wallace	65.6	51
20	Paul Dunne	66.2	80
21	Thomas Detry	66.2	91
22	Andrew Johnston	66.2	35
23	Adrian Otaegui	66.3	68
24	Alexander Bjork	66.6	WD
25	Dean Burmester	66.7	91
26	Michael Lorenzo-Vera	66.7	3
27	Benjamin Hebert	67.0	23
28	Robert Rock	67.2	91
29	Martin Kaymer	67.2	91
30	Matthew Southgate	67.5	30
31	Alexander Levy	67.6	56
32	Aaron Rai	67.6	80
33	David Lipsky	67.7	35
34	Sam Horsfield	68.0	80
35	Mikko Ilonen	68.2	115
36	Joakim Lagergren	68.5	80
37	Fabrizio Zanotti	68.8	16
38	Lee Slattery	68.9	51
39	Lucas Bjerregaard	69.1	2
40	Soren Kjeldsen	69.1	12
41	George Coetzee	69.4	35
42	Stephen Gallacher	69.6	23
43	Wade Ormsby	69.6	91
44	Darren Fichardt	69.6	8
45	Hideto Tanihara	69.8	6
46	Nacho Elvira	70.0	4
47	Romain Wattel	70.1	43
48	Maximilian Kieffer	70.3	35
49	Scott Jamieson	70.4	35
50	Shubhankar Sharma	70.5	80
51	Matthieu Pavon	70.5	59
52	David Horsey	70.6	23
53	Nicolas Colsaerts	70.8	23
54	Thongchai Jaidee	70.8	143
55	Pablo Larrazabal	71.3	16
56	Marcus Kinhult	71.3	56
57	Callum Shinkwin	71.4	16
58	Jonas Blixt	71.7	136
59	David Drysdale	71.8	30
60	Jens Dantorp	71.8	80
61	Renato Paratore	71.9	105
62	Richard McEvoy	72.1	16
63	Jeunghun Wang	72.1	12
64	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	72.2	23
65	Oliver Fisher	72.2	68
66	Ashley Chesters	72.2	91
67	Nino Bertasio	72.3	16
68	James Morrison	72.3	56
69	Doug Ghim	72.3	8
70	Matthew Nixon	72.4	105
71	Matthias Schwab	72.4	115
72	Alejandro Canizares	72.4	115
73	Jacques Kruyswijk	72.5	139
74	Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	72.5	68
75	Jaco van Zyl	72.5	59
76	Marc Warren	72.6	134
77	Haydn Porteous	72.6	16
78	Bradley Dredge	72.6	115
79	Jamie Donaldson	72.7	68
80	Justin Walters	72.9	35
81	Raphael Jacquelin	72.9	125
82	Adam Bland	72.9	105
83	Paul Waring	72.9	115
84	Mikko Korhonen	73.0	45
85	Marcus Fraser	73.1	125
86	Matteo Manassero	73.5	98
87	Gregory Havret	73.5	51
88	Thomas Aiken	73.6	30
89	Ashun Wu	73.6	6
90	Phachara Khongwatmai	73.6	8
91	Johan Carlsson	73.7	DNP
92	Yusaku Miyazato	73.7	143
93	Connor Syme	73.7	68
94	Andres Romero	73.7	45
95	Edoardo Molinari	73.7	51
96	Gavin Green	73.7	12
97	Richard Bland	73.9	80
98	Marcel Siem	73.9	105
99	Steven Brown	73.9	125
100	Julien Guerrier	74.0	23
101	Jason Scrivener	74.0	91
102	Jeff Winther	74.0	115
103	Andrew Dodt	74.1	98
104	Ricardo Gouveia	74.4	68
105	David Howell	74.5	68
106	Jazz Janewattananond	74.5	DNP
107	Felipe Aguilar	74.5	136
108	Sebastien Gros	74.6	WD
109	Ryan Evans	74.6	125
110	Austin Connelly	74.6	45
111	Christofer Blomstrand	74.7	105
112	Brett Rumford	74.7	68
113	Lasse Jensen	74.7	68
114	Robert Karlsson	74.8	66
115	Henric Sturehed	74.9	115
116	Matthew Baldwin	74.9	68
117	Jin Choi	74.9	139
118	Pedro Oriol	75.1	59
119	Jonathan Thomson	75.1	125
120	Chris Hanson	75.2	98
121	Rak hyun Cho	75.2	115
122	Sam Brazel	75.3	98
123	Lorenzo Gagli	75.3	115
124	Adrien Saddier	75.4	65
125	Mark Foster	75.5	WD
126	Tapio Pulkkanen	75.6	105
127	Sebastian Heisele	75.7	115
128	Gregory Bourdy	75.7	136
129	Zander Lombard	75.8	151
130	Chase Koepka	75.8	35
131	Pontus Widegren	75.9	DNP
132	Scott Fernandez	75.9	125
133	Victor Perez	76.0	DNP
134	Charlie Ford	76.0	105
135	Daniel Brooks	76.1	5
136	Soomin Lee	76.1	125
137	Clement Sordet	76.2	80
138	Pep Angles	76.3	DNP
139	SSP Chawrasia	76.3	45
140	Laurie Canter	76.4	16
141	Daniel Im	76.6	143
142	Oliver Farr	76.9	68
143	Carlos Pigem	76.9	139
144	Bradley Neil	77.0	80
145	Josh Geary	77.1	66
146	Ross McGowan	77.1	DNP
147	Jason Norris	77.3	143
148	Marcel Schneider	77.3	DNP
149	Kim Koivu	77.9	125
150	Pelle Edberg	78.2	148
151	Ben Evans	78.9	DNP
152	Ricardo Gonzalez	79.6	64
153	John Daly	80.5	149
154	Mathias Eggenberger	81.2	105
155	Benjamin Rusch	81.5	98
156	Mathias Gronberg	81.6	139
157	Luca Galliano	81.6	134
158	Marc Dobias	81.6	149
159	Raphael De Sousa	81.6	125
160	Cedric Gugler	81.6	152
161	Robert Foley	81.6	143
162	Loris Schupbach	81.6	153
163	Gerold Folk	81.6	105
164	Nicola Gerhardsen	81.6	98
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 326. The average is 207. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

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