A look at the Valero Texas Open

April 17, 2018 Thomas Hawley

The PGA Tour has three events in Texas in an annual calendar of around 40 or 41 events. That works out to about 7.5% of the Tour being played in Texas. Just for a second, remember that number, 7.5%.

Charley Hoffman has lifetime earnings of about $25.9 million. Of that, he has earned just short of $4.9 million in Texas, or 19% of his lifetime earnings in either Ft. Worth, Houston, or San Antonio.

Charley has four lifetime wins on the Tour, one in Texas. That’s 25% of his wins Read more

Valero Texas Open

April 16, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Charley Hoffman
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Charley Hoffman 31.9 64
2 Matt Kuchar 33.3 51
3 Sergio Garcia 34.2 81
4 Luke List 39.1 81
5 Brendan Steele 40.2 30
6 Kevin Chappell 40.8 30
7 Ryan Moore 40.9 7
8 Francesco Molinari 42.7 DNP
9 Xander Schauffele 43.1 73
10 Pat Perez 44.0 81
11 Adam Scott 44.2 112
12 Zach Johnson 46.2 5
13 Jamie Lovemark 48.4 30
14 Ryan Palmer 50.0 94
15 Jimmy Walker 50.2 4
16 Brandt Snedeker 51.1 15
17 Martin Laird 51.3 11
18 Kevin Streelman 51.8 8
19 Chesson Hadley 51.9 20
20 Kevin Na 52.3 94
21 Keegan Bradley 52.8 45
22 Jim Furyk 53.9 26
23 Bill Haas 54.1 75
24 Jason Kokrak 54.1 36
25 Si Woo Kim 56.1 45
26 Billy Horschel 56.2 11
27 Beau Hossler 57.1 51
28 Sean O’Hair 57.3 2
29 Scott Piercy 57.4 94
30 Chris Kirk 57.5 8
31 William McGirt 58.0 145
32 John Huh 58.2 112
33 Stewart Cink 58.4 112
34 Grayson Murray 58.8 16
35 Daniel Summerhays 59.1 58
36 Ollie Schniederjans 59.9 36
37 JB Holmes 60.0 112
38 Abraham Ancer 60.6 58
39 Jhonattan Vegas 60.8 144
40 Patrick Rodgers 60.9 94
41 Brandon Harkins 60.9 75
42 Russell Knox 61.0 81
43 Michael Thompson 61.7 68
44 Aaron Baddeley 61.9 16
45 Peter Uihlein 62.1 112
46 Tyrone van Aswegen 62.4 139
47 Aaron Wise 62.7 139
48 Brian Gay 63.0 81
49 Harris English 63.0 36
50 Anirban Lahiri 63.1 58
51 Martin Kaymer 63.2 112
52 Chris Paisley 63.5 131
53 Nick Watney 63.9 20
54 Robert Garrigus 64.0 153
55 Julian Suri 64.1 58
56 Brice Garnett 64.4 80
57 Austin Cook 64.4 30
58 Graeme McDowell 64.6 51
59 Keith Mitchell 64.7 26
60 Dominic Bozzelli 64.8 94
61 Vaughn Taylor 65.1 16
62 CT Pan 65.5 145
63 Ben Martin 65.7 45
64 Nick Taylor 66.0 81
65 Tom Hoge 66.1 131
66 JJ Spaun 66.1 26
67 Trey Mullinax 66.6 2
68 Hudson Swafford 66.6 75
69 Kevin Tway 66.8 36
70 Andrew Landry 67.0 1
71 Sung Kang 67.1 94
72 David Lingmerth 67.2 51
73 Scott Brown 67.3 139
74 Corey Conners 68.1 26
75 Martin Flores 68.1 81
76 Shawn Stefani 68.5 123
77 Tom Lovelady 68.6 112
78 Ryan Armour 69.0 123
79 Shubhankar Sharma 69.1 123
80 Brian Stuard 69.2 36
81 Wesley Bryan 69.2 81
82 Chad Campbell 69.3 131
83 Danny Lee 69.6 51
84 Whee Kim 69.6 131
85 Talor Gooch 69.7 94
86 Seamus Power 69.8 145
87 Matt Jones 69.8 123
88 Troy Merritt 69.8 36
89 Rob Oppenheim 69.9 112
90 Andrew Putnam 69.9 8
91 Geoff Ogilvy 70.0 131
92 Harold Varner 70.1 131
93 Mackenzie Hughes 70.3 94
94 JT Poston 70.4 30
95 JJ Henry 70.4 145
96 Alex Cejka 70.5 DNP
97 Derek Fathauer 70.7 150
98 Johnson Wagner 70.7 20
99 David Hearn 70.9 16
100 Chris Stroud 71.0 WD
101 Nicholas Lindheim 71.1 36
102 Ben Crane 71.3 11
103 Martin Pillar 71.3 131
104 Nate Lashley 71.3 81
105 Ricky Barnes 71.4 51
106 Joel Dahmen 71.4 75
107 KJ Choi 71.5 45
108 Xin-jun Zhang 71.5 112
109 Bronson Burgoon 71.5 94
110 Retief Goosen 71.6 20
111 Cameron Percy 71.7 94
112 Michael Kim 71.7 153
113 Luke Donald 71.9 DNP
114 Cameron Tringale 72.0 94
115 Matt Every 72.0 94
116 Camilo Villegas 72.0 DNP
117 Sam Ryder 72.1 36
118 Billy Hurley 72.2 81
119 Adam Schenk 72.6 58
120 Tyler Duncan 72.6 94
121 Roberto Diaz 72.7 81
122 Rod Pampling 72.7 68
123 John Peterson 72.8 123
124 Sangmoon Bae 73.2 94
125 Jonathan Byrd 73.2 81
126 Lanto Griffin 73.4 58
127 Richy Werenski 73.4 11
128 Benjamin Silverman 73.4 45
129 Hunter Mahan 73.6 45
130 Denny McCarthy 73.7 20
131 Zac Blair 73.7 36
132 Fabian Gomez 73.8 81
133 Stephan Jaeger 74.0 94
134 Jonathan Randolph 74.0 112
135 Rick Lamb 74.1 150
136 Peter Malnati 74.5 64
137 Steve Wheatcroft 74.5 131
138 Cody Gribble 74.6 145
139 Brett Stegmaier 74.7 123
140 Greg Chalmers 75.1 112
141 John Senden 75.4 79
142 Jon Curran 75.8 123
143 Eric Axley 76.1 DNP
144 Ernie Els 76.2 30
145 Matt Atkins 76.4 68
146 Ethan Tracy 76.7 72
147 Conrad Shindler 77.0 94
148 Ze-cheng Dou 78.0 51
149 Kyle Thompson 78.2 94
150 Andrew Yun 78.3 64
151 George McNeill 79.3 DNP
152 Troy Matteson 80.1 152
153 Steve Marino 80.6 68
154 Tommy Gainey 82.1 DNP
155 Bob Estes 82.7 DNP
156 Joaquin Niemann 83.0 6
157 Steven Bowditch 83.1 155
158 Kris Blanks 85.4 139
159 Cameron Champ 85.6 73
160 Jesse Droemer 85.6 139
Dylan Frittelli late entry 25
Joshua Creel late entry 64
Curtis Reed late entry 106
Paul McConnell late entry 125
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 42. The average is 211. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Trophee Hassan II

April 16, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Paul Dunne
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Paul Dunne 51.2 85
2 Jorge Campillo 53.9 46
3 Alexander Levy 54.6 1
4 Victor Dubuisson 54.7 DNP
5 George Coetzee 56.9 101
6 Richie Ramsay 58.5 32
7 Pablo Larrazabal 58.5 137
8 Joost Luiten 60.1 9
9 Chris Hanson 60.2 41
10 Thomas Pieters 60.9 66
11 David Horsey 61.1 36
12 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 61.5 62
13 Paul Waring 62.0 9
14 Soren Kjeldsen 63.0 119
15 Wade Ormsby 63.0 52
16 Richard Bland 63.4 152
17 Alejandro Canizares 63.5 101
18 Benjamin Hebert 63.9 13
19 Andy Sullivan 64.0 7
20 Robert Rock 64.6 36
21 Renato Paratore 65.5 61
22 Romain Wattel 65.7 52
23 Anthony Wall 65.7 WD
24 Adrian Otaegui 65.7 19
25 Seung-su Han 66.0 9
26 Gregory Bourdy 66.8 62
27 Eddie Pepperell 66.9 101
28 Richard Sterne 67.4 22
29 Alexander Bjork 67.4 3
30 Nicolas Colsaerts 67.5 101
31 Mikko Ilonen 67.6 3
32 Nacho Elvira 67.9 22
33 Edoardo Molinari 68.0 85
34 Dean Burmester 68.1 DQ
35 Chris Wood 68.1 85
36 Fabrizio Zanotti 68.6 126
37 Ryan Fox 68.9 12
38 James Morrison 68.9 137
39 David Lipsky 68.9 77
40 Stephen Gallacher 69.4 92
41 Lucas Bjerregaard 69.6 126
42 Matthieu Pavon 69.7 126
43 David Drysdale 69.7 147
44 Adrien Saddier 69.8 126
45 Matt Wallace 69.9 126
46 Maximilian Kieffer 69.9 41
47 Matthew Southgate 70.1 DNP
48 Peter Hanson 70.2 101
49 Jeunghun Wang 70.2 13
50 Callum Shinkwin 70.4 13
51 Ashun Wu 70.9 29
52 Thomas Detry 71.0 19
53 Gregory Havret 71.1 92
54 Sam Horsfield 71.2 77
55 Aaron Rai 71.4 52
56 Lasse Jensen 71.4 92
57 Marc Warren 71.5 46
58 Joakim Lagergren 71.6 3
59 Andrea Pavan 71.6 3
60 Scott Jamieson 71.7 92
61 Nino Bertasio 71.9 59
62 Paul Peterson 72.0 DNP
63 Oliver Fisher 72.0 52
64 Shiv Kapur 72.1 DNP
65 Mikko Korhonen 72.3 41
66 Matteo Manassero 72.4 46
67 Jason Scrivener 72.4 92
68 Bradley Dredge 72.5 13
69 Haydn Porteous 72.5 126
70 Graeme Storm 72.5 WD
71 Daniel Brooks 72.6 66
72 Robert Karlsson 72.6 101
73 Sam Brazel 72.7 101
74 Jamie Donaldson 72.8 32
75 Adam Bland 72.8 137
76 Marcel Siem 72.9 19
77 Thongchai Jaidee 73.0 77
78 Sebastien Gros 73.0 149
79 Darren Fichardt 73.1 52
80 Daniel Im 73.2 101
81 Jordan Smith 73.3 52
82 Erik Van Rooyen 73.3 7
83 Thomas Aiken 73.3 101
84 Lee Slattery 73.3 32
85 Florian Fritsch 73.4 DNP
86 Ricardo Gouveia 73.5 59
87 Andrew Dodt 73.6 32
88 Julien Guerrier 73.6 85
89 Yusaku Miyazato 73.7 13
90 Thomas Bjorn 73.7 126
91 Mark Foster 73.8 148
92 Raphael Jacquelin 73.9 41
93 Marcus Kinhult 73.9 101
94 Austin Connelly 73.9 13
95 Jeff Winther 73.9 142
96 Jacques Kruyswijk 74.0 119
97 Ashley Chesters 74.1 92
98 Matthias Schwab 74.1 85
99 Tapio Pulkkanen 74.1 36
100 Brett Rumford 74.1 101
101 Marcus Fraser 74.2 22
102 Gavin Green 74.2 92
103 Felipe Aguilar 74.2 77
104 Chase Koepka 74.4 119
105 Danny Willett 74.4 119
106 Jens Dantorp 74.4 119
107 Matthew Baldwin 74.4 77
108 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 74.5 22
109 Sean Crocker 74.7 22
110 Sebastian Heisele 74.7 119
111 Rak hyun Cho 74.7 101
112 Phachara Khongwatmai 74.8 66
113 David Howell 74.8 36
114 Justin Walters 74.8 85
115 Brandon Stone 75.0 22
116 Ryan Evans 75.1 46
117 Jin Choi 75.3 77
118 Michael Hoey 75.3 77
119 Matthew Nixon 75.3 46
120 Pedro Oriol 75.5 29
121 Steven Brown 75.5 65
122 Connor Syme 75.6 74
123 Clement Sordet 75.6 101
124 Nicolas Geyger 75.6 142
125 Charlie Ford 75.7 142
126 Carlos Pigem 75.9 101
127 Laurie Canter 76.2 29
128 Scott Fernandez 76.3 137
129 Lorenzo Gagli 76.6 36
130 Christofer Blomstrand 76.7 101
131 Pep Angles 76.9 92
132 Paul Lawrie 76.9 92
133 Zander Lombard 76.9 119
134 Alvaro Quiros 76.9 2
135 Henric Sturehed 77.0 52
136 Grant Forrest 77.1 126
137 Pontus Widegren 77.2 41
138 Oliver Farr 77.2 77
139 Jason Norris 77.3 WD
140 Jonathan Thomson 77.5 66
141 Ross McGowan 77.5 101
142 Marcel Schneider 77.6 66
143 Josh Geary 77.8 46
144 Victor Perez 78.1 DNP
145 Romain Langasque 78.1 22
146 Bradley Neil 78.2 146
147 Soomin Lee 78.2 DQ
148 Ben Evans 78.8 149
149 Johan Carlsson 79.2 DNP
150 Joel Stalter 79.3 WD
151 Rhys Davies 83.9 126
152 Jack Munro 85.1 101
153 Benjamin Rusch 85.2 142
154 Robin Sciot-Siegrist 85.2 DNP
155 John G Kelly 85.5 149
156 Ayoub Lguirati 85.5 85
157 Luke Joy 85.6 137
158 Ayoub Id-omar 85.6 66
159 Yassine Touhami 85.6 101
160 Ahmed Marjan 85.6 72
161 Jamie Elson 85.6 62
162 James Heath 85.7 72
Karim El Hali late entry 135
Gavin Moynihan late entry 136
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 164. The average is 211. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Apr. 15, 2018)

April 16, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson is back at no. 1 after three weeks at no. 2.
# Thru Apr. 15, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Dustin Johnson 47 1695 2
2 Paul Casey 47 1673 1
3 Jordan Spieth 51 1641 3
4 Justin Thomas 52 1567 4
5 Rickie Fowler 51 1504 5
6 Jon Rahm 46 1436 6
7 Patrick Cantlay 22 1384 12
8 Jason Day 42 1356 7
9 Phil Mickelson 49 1354 8
10 Justin Rose 47 1353 9
11 Rory McIlroy 42 1339 10
12 Brooks Koepka 41 1324 11
13 Henrik Stenson 46 1274 13
14 Hideki Matsuyama 46 1224 14
15 Matt Kuchar 62 1172 15
16 Tiger Woods 10 1150 17
17 Sergio Garcia 43 1136 18
18 Marc Leishman 54 1129 16
19 Louis Oosthuizen 44 1128 19
20 Webb Simpson 51 1121 25
21 Patrick Reed 69 1120 20
22 Tony Finau 57 1112 21
23 Brian Harman 59 1091 23
24 Alex Noren 51 1078 24
25 Francesco Molinari 51 1073 22
26 Adam Scott 42 1022 27
27 Pat Perez 38 1021 28
28 Tommy Fleetwood 56 1015 30
29 Brendan Steele 48 1013 29
30 Kevin Kisner 57 1001 32
31 Tyrrell Hatton 53 994 26
32 Ryan Moore 48 962 36
33 Adam Hadwin 54 945 34
34 Charles Howell 49 944 31
35 Steve Stricker 28 944 33
36 Sam Burns 8 938 37
37 Rafa Cabrera Bello 61 912 35
38 Charley Hoffman 61 909 39
39 Kyle Stanley 55 891 40
40 Bubba Watson 48 885 41
41 Branden Grace 55 880 42
42 Daniel Berger 53 878 43
43 Kevin Chappell 57 870 38
44 Russell Henley 51 857 45
45 Luke List 61 857 53
46 Emiliano Grillo 56 856 49
47 Gary Woodland 57 855 44
48 Brandt Snedeker 45 847 51
49 Xander Schauffele 42 843 46
50 Cameron Smith 55 842 48
51 Ian Poulter 49 838 54
52 Chez Reavie 56 834 50
53 Zach Johnson 51 830 47
54 Bill Haas 49 821 56
55 Jason Dufner 50 770 52
56 Keegan Bradley 56 750 57
57 Byeong Hun An 55 748 65
58 Martin Laird 48 745 58
59 Bud Cauley 51 744 60
60 Kevin Na 49 731 55
61 Lucas Glover 48 726 61
62 Graham DeLaet 37 718 62
63 Jamie Lovemark 55 715 63
64 James Hahn 55 710 59
65 Kevin Streelman 53 709 72
66 Matthew Fitzpatrick 57 697 69
67 Bernd Wiesberger 55 692 64
68 Scott Piercy 47 673 75
69 Thomas Pieters 49 673 67
70 Jason Kokrak 55 663 66
71 Chesson Hadley 43 645 89
72 Charl Schwartzel 48 641 68
73 Jimmy Walker 50 638 76
74 Stewart Cink 45 636 73
75 Ollie Schniederjans 45 632 74
76 Ross Fisher 50 632 71
77 Bryson DeChambeau 57 625 91
78 Ryan Palmer 40 623 70
79 Shane Lowry 52 623 79
80 JB Holmes 52 619 81
81 Jhonattan Vegas 61 613 82
82 Sean O’Hair 54 603 80
83 Martin Kaymer 50 602 78
84 Brandon Harkins 20 597 77
85 Si Woo Kim 61 583 98
86 Russell Knox 61 578 85
87 William McGirt 55 578 83
88 Jordan L Smith 13 571 87
89 Anirban Lahiri 52 569 84
90 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 56 565 88
91 Chris Kirk 59 555 86
92 Beau Hossler 26 540 107
93 Grayson Murray 45 535 90
94 Billy Horschel 50 522 119
95 Patrick Rodgers 58 518 96
96 Lee Westwood 46 517 95
97 Peter Uihlein 45 516 93
98 Jim Furyk 37 505 92
99 Brian Gay 49 503 94
100 Soren Kjeldsen 51 490 97
101 Hudson Swafford 54 489 99
102 Jerry Kelly 23 488 102
103 Graeme McDowell 57 487 100
104 Sung Kang 62 477 101
105 Scott Stallings 58 477 105
106 Haotong Li 49 476 110
107 Patton Kizzire 55 472 103
108 JJ Spaun 45 470 104
109 Aaron Wise 24 467 111
110 Robert Garrigus 52 465 106
111 David Lingmerth 57 464 109
112 Joost Luiten 51 464 112
113 Alexander Levy 45 461 114
114 Nick Watney 34 460 118
115 Rory Sabbatini 49 459 125
116 Michael Thompson 44 454 115
117 Victor Dubuisson 31 453 108
118 Scott Brown 56 451 113
119 Satoshi Kodaira 16 448 279
120 Andrew Landry 30 446 117
121 John Huh 57 443 129
122 Paul Dunne 53 440 121
123 Vaughn Taylor 53 439 116
124 Harris English 58 437 124
125 Abraham Ancer 32 433 127
126 Andy Sullivan 53 425 128
127 Nick Taylor 56 424 120
128 Wesley Bryan 44 420 130
129 Seung-su Han 8 420
130 Austin Cook 21 416 123
131 Dylan Frittelli 48 410 138
132 Julian Suri 26 408 122
133 Kelly Kraft 57 406 131
134 Ben Martin 56 406 132
135 Rafael Campos 9 406 137
136 Hideto Tanihara 33 406 140
137 Keith Mitchell 21 404 126
138 Kevin Tway 47 400 133
139 Thorbjorn Olesen 52 399 134
140 Aaron Baddeley 49 395 135
141 Danny Lee 65 392 139
142 CT Pan 49 392 152
143 Jorge Campillo 52 390 148
144 Chad Campbell 56 390 136
145 Jim Herman 47 384 143
146 Miguel Angel Jimenez 17 383 142
147 Tyrone van Aswegen 62 380 156
148 Ted Potter 26 379 190
149 Seung-yul Noh 45 378 146
150 Andrew Johnston 47 377 151
151 Dominic Bozzelli 37 376 149
152 Brandon Hagy 32 375 147
153 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 371 145
154 Sam Saunders 53 370 144
155 Morgan Hoffmann 51 365 154
156 Tom Hoge 54 362 150
157 Henrik Norlander 24 361 155
158 Mackenzie Hughes 48 353 153
159 Trey Mullinax 44 345 162
160 Pablo Larrazabal 51 343 166
161 George Coetzee 57 342 179
162 Richard Sterne 45 341 158
163 Martin Pillar 10 340 141
164 Alexander Bjork 39 340 160
165 Fabrizio Zanotti 48 340 157
166 Nicolas Colsaerts 54 337 164
167 Shubhankar Sharma 22 336 169
168 Ryan Blaum 46 335 161
169 Eddie Pepperell 45 334 159
170 Chris Wood 52 334 171
171 Martin Flores 45 332 163
172 Brian Stuard 61 329 167
173 David Horsey 48 327 165
174 Blayne Barber 48 325 168
175 JT Poston 43 324 178
176 Whee Kim 58 321 176
177 David Hearn 57 318 173
178 Richie Ramsay 51 318 174
179 Ryan Fox 42 316 175
180 Derek Fathauer 56 314 177
181 Talor Gooch 20 312 172
182 Seamus Power 45 308 187
183 Daniel Summerhays 55 308 186
184 Michael Kim 55 308 180
185 David Lipsky 54 307 183
186 Harold Varner 61 306 181
187 Jonas Blixt 50 304 226
188 Alex Cejka 58 303 184
189 Brice Garnett 32 303 194
190 Geoff Ogilvy 48 301 185
191 Daisuke Kataoka 12 300 170
192 Corey Conners 20 299 182
193 Chris Stroud 52 298 188
194 Robert Streb 58 297 189
195 Roberto Castro 42 296 191
196 Chris Paisley 53 295 196
197 Jeunghun Wang 56 293 192
198 Luke Donald 49 288 193
199 Johnson Wagner 52 288 197
200 Jaco van Zyl 32 286 198
201 Dean Burmester 43 284 195
202 Padraig Harrington 47 280 199
203 Tom Lovelady 18 276 202
204 Nacho Elvira 55 273 219
205 Benjamin Hebert 49 272 203
206 JJ Henry 56 270 251
207 Ryan Armour 42 270 201
208 Kyung-tae Kim 19 268 205
209 Matthew Southgate 56 267 204
210 Billy Hurley 53 265 200
211 Adrian Otaegui 54 263 223
212 Rob Oppenheim 37 262 207
213 Xin-jun Zhang 18 262 208
214 Andres Gonzales 46 261 206
215 Peter Hanson 35 258 210
216 Andrew Putnam 19 254 211
217 Julian Etulain 29 253 216
218 Alejandro Canizares 43 253 234
219 Camilo Villegas 56 252 217
220 Stephen Gallacher 46 252 209
221 Cameron Percy 45 251 218
222 Tim Wilkinson 44 250 212
223 Ryo Ishikawa 28 249 220
224 Shawn Stefani 57 248 214
225 Troy Merritt 63 248 225
226 Retief Goosen 41 246 222
227 Ricky Barnes 60 246 221
228 Curtis Luck 25 244 227
229 Matthieu Pavon 38 241 213
230 Scott Jamieson 53 240 224
231 Scott Hend 59 240 229
232 Richard Bland 50 240 215
233 Matt Jones 53 239 232
234 Nate Lashley 16 239 231
235 Smylie Kaufman 56 239 233
236 Callum Shinkwin 43 234 241
237 Anthony Wall 39 233 230
238 Thongchai Jaidee 50 232 228
239 Rikard Karlberg 36 229 237
240 Ashun Wu 48 228 242
241 Martin Piller 26 228 239
242 Tyler Duncan 20 227 244
243 Bradley Dredge 45 225 236
244 Robert Rock 51 223 252
245 Maximilian Kieffer 47 223 266
246 Tag Ridings 27 223 249
247 Bronson Burgoon 29 222 247
248 Cameron Tringale 60 222 248
249 Nicholas Lindheim 41 222 240
250 Ben Crane 52 220 253
251 Robby Shelton 12 219 255
252 Marc Warren 54 217 282
253 Matt Wallace 34 217 245
254 Renato Paratore 57 217 264
255 Thomas Detry 39 216 246
256 Michael Putnam 11 214 263
257 Lanto Griffin 16 214 260
258 Joakim Lagergren 49 213 250
259 Yuta Ikeda 23 213 257
260 Richy Werenski 45 212 254
261 Zac Blair 62 212 262
262 Chase Koepka 14 212 238
263 Mikko Ilonen 44 211 256
264 Benjamin Silverman 18 210 261
265 John Senden 33 207 235
266 Will MacKenzie 32 206 267
267 Adam Bland 13 206 243
268 Graeme Storm 52 205 259
269 John Peterson 23 204 270
270 Joel Dahmen 33 204 272
271 Gregory Bourdy 56 201 265
272 Andrew Dodt 46 200 268
273 Jonathan Byrd 28 198 278
274 Florian Fritsch 32 198 258
275 Kyle Reifers 55 197 274
276 Sebastian Munoz 24 196 284
277 KJ Choi 47 195 276
278 Chris Hanson 51 194 273
279 Rod Pampling 50 193 308
280 Adam Schenk 21 192 287
281 David Drysdale 57 192 277
282 Darren Fichardt 43 191 275
283 Sam Ryder 21 191 269
284 Vijay Singh 37 190 286
285 Sam Horsfield 21 190 271
286 Chad Collins 43 189 288
287 Nino Bertasio 58 188 291
288 Aaron Rai 24 188 319
289 Thomas Aiken 49 188 280
290 Poom Saksansin 17 187 292
291 Jonathan Randolph 41 186 295
292 Austin Connelly 26 186 281
293 Andrea Pavan 13 185 322
294 Jordan Smith 24 184 283
295 Spencer Levin 52 183 294
296 Jason Scrivener 53 183 293
297 Greg Owen 37 183 301
298 Mikko Korhonen 45 183 289
299 Romain Wattel 49 182 298
300 Paul Waring 37 182 290
301 Scott Langley 22 182 297
302 Khalin Joshi 8 181 302
303 Wade Ormsby 37 181 303
304 Haydn Porteous 60 179 305
305 Oliver Fisher 55 179 296
306 Fabian Gomez 50 179 299
307 Boo Weekley 39 178 300
308 Young-han Song 14 178 304
309 Marcus Kinhult 17 177 285
310 Julien Guerrier 15 177 384
311 Tapio Pulkkanen 9 172 360
312 Matteo Manassero 52 172 309
313 Ricardo Gouveia 55 170 307
314 Joachim B Hansen 20 169 313
315 Jamie Donaldson 47 168 306
316 Gregory Havret 55 167 311
317 James Morrison 55 167 310
318 David Bransdon 8 166 314
319 Alex Prugh 15 163 316
320 Cody Gribble 44 163 312
321 Yusaku Miyazato 17 162 389
322 Rick Lamb 32 161 321
323 Paul Peterson 49 161 318
324 Steve Wheatcroft 47 160 317
325 Carlos Ortiz 24 159 324
326 Stephan Jaeger 24 158 323
327 Freddie Jacobson 21 157 320
328 Sam Brazel 39 156 328
329 Lucas Herbert 12 155 331
330 Juvic Pagunsan 9 153 334
331 Matthias Schwab 8 152
332 Danny Willett 45 152 330
333 Ryan Brehm 33 151 333
334 Lee Slattery 51 150 327
335 JC Ritchie 9 150 337
336 Erik Van Rooyen 16 150 383
337 Lucas Bjerregaard 55 150 332
338 Andres Romero 35 150 338
339 DA Points 49 150 326
340 David Toms 13 150 315
341 Roberto Diaz 22 149 340
342 Matt Every 54 149 335
343 Sangmoon Bae 12 148 346
344 Sean Crocker 12 148 341
345 Davis Love 26 147 325
346 Hunter Mahan 53 147 345
347 Maverick McNealy 9 146 347
348 Julien Quesne 44 146 329
349 Rhein Gibson 21 146 348
350 Anders Hansen 15 146 343
351 Peter Malnati 60 145 339
352 Jacques Kruyswijk 13 144 475
353 Marcus Fraser 43 144 342
354 Denny McCarthy 19 144 352
355 Angel Cabrera 34 143 353
356 Robert Karlsson 46 143 336
357 Michael Johnson 10 141 350
358 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 33 140 344
359 Brett Stegmaier 55 139 355
360 Panuphol Pittayarat 17 138 358
361 Brian Campbell 27 137 359
362 Ashley Chesters 34 136 354
363 Greg Chalmers 54 136 356
364 Bryce Molder 38 135 351
365 Trevor Fisher 25 135 349
366 Brandon Stone 48 135 363
367 Hennie Otto 20 134 364
368 Jose-Filipe Lima 30 133 362
369 Lasse Jensen 52 132 357
370 Gavin Green 14 131 361
371 Jake McLeod 8 130 366
372 Will Wilcox 27 129 368
373 Bill Lunde 11 129 374
374 Marcel Siem 48 129 370
375 Johan Carlsson 45 129 369
376 Romain Langasque 35 129 371
377 Bernd Ritthammer 30 128 372
378 Kristoffer Broberg 26 128 380
379 Brett Coletta 10 127 379
380 Brett Drewitt 27 126 375
381 Henric Sturehed 8 126
382 Prayad Marksaeng 9 125 377
383 Felipe Aguilar 49 124 391
384 Jordan Zunic 13 124 381
385 Dicky Pride 25 124 386
386 Jacques Blaauw 16 123 388
387 Sebastian Heisele 26 123 367
388 Thomas Bjorn 35 123 387
389 Brett Rumford 46 123 449
390 Jeff Winther 37 122 393
391 Wes Roach 18 122 373
392 Ockie Strydom 9 122 385
393 Jordan Niebrugge 9 122 394
394 Phachara Khongwatmai 38 121 376
395 Raphael Jacquelin 51 120 378
396 Joel Stalter 28 120 390
397 Shiv Kapur 26 119 392
398 Connor Syme 14 119 365
399 YE Yang 30 116 395
400 Justin Walters 52 115 396
More | Less

A look at the RBC Heritage

April 10, 2018 Thomas Hawley

RBC Heritage (Apr. 12-15, 2018)

Of course, the big question for the big names coming out of the Masters is whether they have decompressed to such an extent that they may not be competitive in the subsequent event. That’s the question for four of the top five picks in this week’s RBC Heritage, which is being competed, as usual, at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head SC, just a two-and-a-half hour drive to the southeast from Augusta GA.

One thing is for sure, and it’s that the average spectator can get into this one much easier and more cheaply than into the Masters.

Our top three picks for the Heritage all finished in the top 10 at the Masters. That’s Paul Casey (world no. 1 in the Hawley Ratings), Read more

RBC Heritage

April 9, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,
Paul Casey
Paul Casey
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Paul Casey 11.0 110
2 Dustin Johnson 14.5 16
3 Matt Kuchar 32.4 23
4 Patrick Cantlay 33.9 7
5 Marc Leishman 34.8 78
6 Steve Stricker 35.3 DNP
7 Brian Harman 35.5 23
8 Webb Simpson 35.9 5
9 Francesco Molinari 39.1 49
10 Branden Grace 39.8 DNP
11 Charles Howell 40.0 55
12 Tyrrell Hatton 40.2 110
13 Xander Schauffele 40.6 32
14 Adam Hadwin 42.1 DNP
15 Cameron Smith 42.4 32
16 Luke List 43.2 3
17 Charley Hoffman 44.3 23
18 Zach Johnson 45.2 42
19 Ian Poulter 45.8 7
20 Ryan Moore 45.8 16
21 Kevin Kisner 46.2 7
22 Kevin Chappell 46.6 78
23 Jason Kokrak 48.2 90
24 Jim Furyk 48.3 70
25 Emiliano Grillo 49.1 16
26 Kevin Na 49.6 78
27 Martin Laird 50.3 32
28 Byeong Hun An 51.6 7
29 Brandt Snedeker 52.0 23
30 James Hahn 52.4 124
31 Lucas Glover 53.0 32
32 Bud Cauley 53.6 23
33 William McGirt 53.7 70
34 Martin Kaymer 54.4 73
35 Bryson DeChambeau 54.7 3
36 Matthew Fitzpatrick 55.0 14
37 Luke Donald 55.5 78
38 Kevin Streelman 55.8 7
39 Sean O’Hair 56.2 102
40 Jason Dufner 56.6 78
41 Chris Kirk 57.9 55
42 Grayson Murray 57.9 90
43 Scott Piercy 58.2 16
44 Russell Knox 58.8 40
45 Bill Haas 58.8 7
46 Stewart Cink 58.8 42
47 Chesson Hadley 59.1 7
48 Brandon Harkins 59.1 110
49 Paul Dunne 59.4 133
50 Patton Kizzire 59.8 78
51 Charl Schwartzel 59.9 110
52 Vaughn Taylor 60.0 125
53 Rory Sabbatini 60.1 23
54 Ross Fisher 60.3 90
55 Abraham Ancer 60.5 DNP
56 Ollie Schniederjans 61.1 42
57 John Huh 61.1 23
58 Anirban Lahiri 61.4 110
59 Graeme McDowell 62.2 55
60 Ryan Palmer 62.2 76
61 Scott Stallings 62.5 55
62 Kelly Kraft 62.7 78
63 Brian Gay 62.8 70
64 Robert Garrigus 62.8 78
65 Beau Hossler 63.1 16
66 Ben Martin 63.1 55
67 Julian Suri 63.3 133
68 Dominic Bozzelli 63.4 40
69 Si Woo Kim 63.4 2
70 Keith Mitchell 63.5 133
71 Michael Thompson 63.6 42
72 Austin Cook 63.8 50
73 Dylan Frittelli 64.3 32
74 Harris English 64.6 32
75 JJ Spaun 64.6 78
76 Nick Watney 65.2 32
77 Aaron Baddeley 65.4 55
78 Hudson Swafford 65.5 102
79 Tyrone van Aswegen 65.7 23
80 Scott Brown 66.2 90
81 CT Pan 66.4 23
82 Tom Hoge 66.7 55
83 Brice Garnett 66.7 42
84 David Lingmerth 66.8 74
85 Nick Taylor 66.8 110
86 Kevin Tway 66.8 67
87 Sung Kang 67.0 129
88 Andrew Landry 67.1 42
89 Martin Flores 67.1 121
90 Corey Conners 67.3 102
91 Chad Campbell 67.7 125
92 Wesley Bryan 68.0 42
93 Sam Saunders 68.2 90
94 Billy Horschel 68.3 5
95 Ryan Blaum 68.7 90
96 Brian Stuard 68.7 67
97 Derek Fathauer 68.8 131
98 Chris Stroud 68.9 90
99 Ryan Armour 68.9 55
100 Blayne Barber 69.0 90
101 Danny Lee 69.3 55
102 Whee Kim 69.6 50
103 Mackenzie Hughes 69.8 90
104 Alex Cejka 69.9 133
105 KJ Choi 70.2 55
106 Harold Varner 70.3 90
107 Ted Potter 70.7 16
108 David Hearn 70.9 127
109 Geoff Ogilvy 70.9 121
110 Matt Every 71.0 55
111 Michael Kim 71.2 77
112 Robert Streb 71.7 90
113 Sam Ryder 71.8 133
114 Camilo Villegas 71.9 DNP
115 Billy Hurley 72.3 102
116 Jonas Blixt 72.3 14
117 JJ Henry 72.9 16
118 Satoshi Kodaira 73.0 1
119 Vijay Singh 73.0 DNP
120 Richy Werenski 73.1 102
121 John Peterson 73.4 DNP
122 Jonathan Byrd 73.4 50
123 John Senden 73.6 78
124 Greg Chalmers 73.7 127
125 Fabian Gomez 73.9 50
126 Rod Pampling 74.1 32
127 Davis Love 74.2 74
128 Peter Malnati 74.2 67
129 Cody Gribble 74.3 118
130 Colt Knost 75.0 102
131 DA Points 75.3 102
132 Jon Curran 76.2 121
133 Darren Clarke 77.8 DNP
134 Steve Marino 80.0 78
135 Carl Pettersson 82.2 118
136 Bob Estes 82.8 90
137 Dru Love 83.0 78
138 Philip Knowles 85.6 102
139 Doc Redman 85.6 50
140 Steve Scott 85.6 129
141 Chris Couch 85.6 WD
142 Glen Day 86.3 110
Jeff Maggert late entry 120
Talor Gooch late entry 135
Nicholas Lindheim late entry 136
Martin Pillar late entry 138
Peter Uihlein late entry 141
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 66. The average is 212. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Open de Espana

April 9, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Jon Rahm
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Jon Rahm 11.4 1
2 Rafa Cabrera Bello 37.8 75
3 James Morrison 47.2 134
4 Maximilian Kieffer 48.6 12
5 Victor Dubuisson 53.5 134
6 Seung-su Han 53.8 21
7 Soren Kjeldsen 54.2 75
8 Andy Sullivan 58.0 21
9 Pablo Larrazabal 58.5 21
10 Jorge Campillo 58.7 5
11 Alejandro Canizares 60.3 12
12 Richie Ramsay 60.4 72
13 David Horsey 60.6 129
14 Paul Dunne 61.6 2
15 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 61.8 34
16 Hideto Tanihara 62.7 9
17 Andrew Johnston 64.7 12
18 Gregory Bourdy 64.9 46
19 Richard Bland 65.4 123
20 David Lipsky 65.5 67
21 Daisuke Kataoka 66.5 144
22 Thorbjorn Olesen 66.6 46
23 Fabrizio Zanotti 66.6 75
24 Felipe Aguilar 66.7 28
25 Adrian Otaegui 66.8 12
26 Ryan Fox 66.8 92
27 Dean Burmester 67.3 71
28 Nacho Elvira 67.8 3
29 Alexander Bjork 67.9 39
30 Nicolas Colsaerts 67.9 28
31 Eddie Pepperell 67.9 92
32 Mikko Korhonen 67.9 134
33 Richard Sterne 69.2 34
34 George Coetzee 69.3 4
35 Darren Fichardt 69.5 58
36 David Drysdale 69.5 75
37 Stephen Gallacher 69.6 52
38 Sam Horsfield 69.6 109
39 Gregory Havret 69.7 109
40 Jeunghun Wang 70.3 109
41 Robert Rock 70.3 28
42 Adam Bland 70.8 109
43 Raphael Jacquelin 70.9 109
44 Scott Jamieson 71.1 75
45 Graeme Storm 71.4 67
46 Matteo Manassero 71.4 39
47 Marcus Kinhult 71.5 92
48 Florian Fritsch 71.6 144
49 Matthew Southgate 71.7 DNP
50 Matthieu Pavon 71.8 75
51 Thomas Detry 72.0 92
52 Marc Warren 72.1 5
53 Chase Koepka 72.3 123
54 Julien Quesne 72.3 92
55 Thongchai Jaidee 72.4 73
56 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 72.5 109
57 Matt Wallace 72.7 129
58 Anthony Wall 72.7 52
59 Andrea Pavan 73.0 21
60 Thomas Aiken 73.0 123
61 Aaron Rai 73.7 12
62 Ashun Wu 73.8 34
63 Renato Paratore 73.8 21
64 Bradley Dredge 73.9 52
65 Joakim Lagergren 74.0 134
66 Callum Shinkwin 74.0 28
67 Jordan Smith 74.5 92
68 Edoardo Molinari 74.8 92
69 Andrew Dodt 75.1 123
70 Oliver Fisher 75.2 92
71 Ricardo Gouveia 75.8 52
72 Chris Hanson 76.0 92
73 Austin Connelly 76.0 63
74 Eduardo de la Riva 76.0 109
75 Paul Waring 76.0 63
76 Jason Scrivener 76.0 73
77 Gavin Green 76.3 46
78 Trevor Fisher 76.4 67
79 Connor Syme 77.1 92
80 Julien Guerrier 77.3 9
81 Nino Bertasio 77.4 34
82 Nicolas Geyger 77.4 92
83 Tapio Pulkkanen 77.5 21
84 Jamie Donaldson 77.5 92
85 Jeff Winther 77.8 34
86 Yusaku Miyazato 77.8 12
87 Lasse Jensen 78.0 134
88 Lee Slattery 78.0 147
89 Thomas Bjorn 78.1 DNP
90 Clement Sordet 78.1 152
91 Marcus Fraser 78.1 46
92 Paul Lawrie 78.1 75
93 Robert Karlsson 78.2 153
94 Phachara Khongwatmai 78.2 123
95 Sebastian Heisele 78.2 75
96 Charlie Ford 78.3 63
97 Jin Choi 78.4 58
98 Steven Brown 78.5 75
99 Ashley Chesters 78.7 134
100 Brandon Stone 78.8 39
101 David Howell 79.1 39
102 Erik Van Rooyen 79.2 21
103 Ben Evans 79.2 109
104 Matthew Baldwin 79.2 52
105 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 79.2 28
106 Scott Fernandez 79.6 75
107 Gavin Moynihan 79.9 134
108 Pedro Oriol 79.9 39
109 Mark Foster 80.0 75
110 Ryan Evans 80.1 153
111 Brett Rumford 80.3 5
112 Daniel Im 80.3 109
113 Christofer Blomstrand 80.3 92
114 Daniel Brooks 80.5 144
115 Niclas Fasth 80.5 134
116 Jacques Kruyswijk 80.5 9
117 Carlos Pigem 80.6 147
118 Alvaro Quiros 80.6 75
119 Matthew Nixon 80.7 109
120 Adrien Saddier 80.7 109
121 Jens Dantorp 80.7 67
122 Sebastien Gros 81.1 12
123 Nick Cullen 81.2 109
124 Richard McEvoy 81.6 155
125 Tom Lewis 81.6 129
126 Laurie Canter 81.7 92
127 Si-hwan Kim 82.1 46
128 Steve Webster 82.2 DNP
129 Johan Edfors 82.3 DNP
130 Zander Lombard 82.3 147
131 Pep Angles 82.3 46
132 Javier Colomo 82.9 75
133 Lorenzo Gagli 83.1 75
134 Oliver Farr 83.2 134
135 Pontus Widegren 83.5 75
136 Jason Norris 83.6 58
137 Ross McGowan 83.8 129
138 Jonathan Thomson 84.0 39
139 Matthias Schwab 84.3 28
140 Estanislao Goya 84.3 75
141 Eirik Tage Johansen 84.4 DNP
142 Josh Geary 84.7 134
143 Marcel Schneider 85.0 58
144 Oscar Serna 85.1 DNP
145 Rak hyun Cho 85.3 12
146 Bradley Neil 85.4 58
147 Adri Arnaus 85.4 75
148 Marco Iten 85.4 DNP
149 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 85.4 147
150 Birgir Hafthorsson 85.6 123
151 Soomin Lee 85.6 147
152 Javier Sainz 85.6 109
153 Jose Luis Gonzalez Courtney 85.6 156
154 Alejandro Del Reyam 85.6 129
155 Billy McKenzie 85.6 92
156 Angel Hidalgo 85.6 109
157 Victor Pastor 85.6 12
158 Samuel Del Val 85.6 39
159 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 85.6 52
160 Santiago Tarrio Ben 85.6 92
161 Henric Sturehed 85.6 5
162 James Heath 85.8 92
163 Tom Murray 86.0 63
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 315. The average is 212. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Apr. 8, 2018)

April 9, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Paul Casey heads holds the no. 1 rating for the third week.
# Thru Apr. 8, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Paul Casey 47 1733 1
2 Dustin Johnson 46 1699 2
3 Jordan Spieth 51 1639 3
4 Justin Thomas 53 1564 4
5 Rickie Fowler 51 1499 5
6 Jon Rahm 45 1449 8
7 Jason Day 43 1362 9
8 Phil Mickelson 49 1356 7
9 Justin Rose 47 1352 11
10 Rory McIlroy 42 1344 12
11 Brooks Koepka 41 1325 10
12 Patrick Cantlay 21 1314 6
13 Henrik Stenson 46 1274 15
14 Hideki Matsuyama 46 1224 13
15 Matt Kuchar 62 1172 17
16 Marc Leishman 54 1165 18
17 Tiger Woods 10 1150 14
18 Sergio Garcia 44 1136 16
19 Louis Oosthuizen 44 1123 22
20 Patrick Reed 69 1123 25
21 Tony Finau 58 1109 24
22 Francesco Molinari 51 1103 21
23 Brian Harman 59 1083 20
24 Alex Noren 52 1073 19
25 Webb Simpson 51 1061 27
26 Tyrrell Hatton 52 1031 26
27 Adam Scott 42 1026 29
28 Pat Perez 38 1026 23
29 Brendan Steele 49 1013 28
30 Tommy Fleetwood 57 1008 30
31 Charles Howell 49 972 31
32 Kevin Kisner 57 948 33
33 Steve Stricker 28 943 34
34 Adam Hadwin 55 942 36
35 Rafa Cabrera Bello 61 940 32
36 Ryan Moore 47 938 35
37 Sam Burns 8 931 37
38 Kevin Chappell 57 900 38
39 Charley Hoffman 61 899 44
40 Kyle Stanley 56 885 39
41 Bubba Watson 48 883 51
42 Branden Grace 56 881 42
43 Daniel Berger 53 879 41
44 Gary Woodland 57 860 40
45 Russell Henley 52 854 50
46 Xander Schauffele 41 848 43
47 Zach Johnson 51 847 45
48 Cameron Smith 54 842 54
49 Emiliano Grillo 55 835 47
50 Chez Reavie 57 832 46
51 Brandt Snedeker 45 832 48
52 Jason Dufner 50 796 49
53 Luke List 61 794 52
54 Ian Poulter 49 780 53
55 Kevin Na 49 763 55
56 Bill Haas 49 757 56
57 Keegan Bradley 56 750 57
58 Martin Laird 47 748 58
59 James Hahn 55 733 59
60 Bud Cauley 51 730 61
61 Lucas Glover 48 728 60
62 Graham DeLaet 38 713 63
63 Jamie Lovemark 56 712 62
64 Bernd Wiesberger 55 691 69
65 Byeong Hun An 54 689 66
66 Jason Kokrak 55 686 67
67 Thomas Pieters 50 671 64
68 Charl Schwartzel 47 667 65
69 Matthew Fitzpatrick 57 660 71
70 Ryan Palmer 40 658 70
71 Ross Fisher 50 654 68
72 Kevin Streelman 52 648 72
73 Stewart Cink 45 647 74
74 Ollie Schniederjans 44 641 76
75 Scott Piercy 46 641 73
76 Jimmy Walker 50 638 82
77 Brandon Harkins 19 635 77
78 Martin Kaymer 50 627 75
79 Shane Lowry 52 624 78
80 Sean O’Hair 54 623 80
81 JB Holmes 52 619 79
82 Jhonattan Vegas 61 612 81
83 William McGirt 55 602 83
84 Anirban Lahiri 51 592 85
85 Russell Knox 61 589 84
86 Chris Kirk 59 574 86
87 Jordan L Smith 13 568 88
88 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 56 565 87
89 Chesson Hadley 43 560 89
90 Grayson Murray 44 555 90
91 Bryson DeChambeau 57 553 91
92 Jim Furyk 36 541 92
93 Peter Uihlein 45 533 93
94 Brian Gay 49 520 95
95 Lee Westwood 46 518 94
96 Patrick Rodgers 58 518 96
97 Soren Kjeldsen 51 511 97
98 Si Woo Kim 61 507 102
99 Hudson Swafford 54 506 99
100 Graeme McDowell 57 501 100
101 Sung Kang 62 490 103
102 Jerry Kelly 24 489 101
103 Patton Kizzire 55 489 98
104 JJ Spaun 44 486 104
105 Scott Stallings 57 486 106
106 Robert Garrigus 51 484 105
107 Beau Hossler 25 483 107
108 Victor Dubuisson 30 482 109
109 David Lingmerth 57 481 108
110 Haotong Li 49 474 113
111 Aaron Wise 24 467 112
112 Joost Luiten 52 466 111
113 Scott Brown 56 464 114
114 Alexander Levy 46 461 115
115 Michael Thompson 43 458 117
116 Vaughn Taylor 53 455 118
117 Andrew Landry 29 452 119
118 Nick Watney 33 449 120
119 Billy Horschel 50 449 110
120 Nick Taylor 56 437 121
121 Paul Dunne 52 436 123
122 Julian Suri 25 432 124
123 Austin Cook 20 432 116
124 Harris English 58 430 125
125 Rory Sabbatini 49 430 126
126 Keith Mitchell 20 429 129
127 Abraham Ancer 32 428 128
128 Andy Sullivan 53 426 127
129 John Huh 56 420 130
130 Wesley Bryan 43 419 122
131 Kelly Kraft 57 416 132
132 Ben Martin 56 415 131
133 Kevin Tway 46 411 135
134 Thorbjorn Olesen 52 410 134
135 Aaron Baddeley 49 408 136
136 Chad Campbell 56 403 137
137 Rafael Campos 9 402 139
138 Dylan Frittelli 47 400 133
139 Danny Lee 65 400 138
140 Hideto Tanihara 32 389 140
141 Martin Pillar 9 385 142
142 Miguel Angel Jimenez 17 383 141
143 Jim Herman 48 382 143
144 Sam Saunders 53 381 144
145 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 377 145
146 Seung-yul Noh 46 376 146
147 Brandon Hagy 32 374 147
148 Jorge Campillo 52 374 148
149 Dominic Bozzelli 36 373 149
150 Tom Hoge 54 369 150
151 Andrew Johnston 47 367 151
152 CT Pan 48 367 152
153 Mackenzie Hughes 47 366 153
154 Morgan Hoffmann 52 363 154
155 Henrik Norlander 25 359 157
156 Tyrone van Aswegen 62 357 155
157 Fabrizio Zanotti 48 355 156
158 Richard Sterne 45 349 159
159 Eddie Pepperell 45 347 162
160 Alexander Bjork 38 347 161
161 Ryan Blaum 45 346 160
162 Trey Mullinax 44 343 163
163 Martin Flores 44 343 164
164 Nicolas Colsaerts 54 341 166
165 David Horsey 48 341 165
166 Pablo Larrazabal 51 340 169
167 Brian Stuard 60 339 167
168 Blayne Barber 48 339 168
169 Shubhankar Sharma 22 337 158
170 Daisuke Kataoka 11 336 170
171 Chris Wood 53 334 172
172 Talor Gooch 19 333 173
173 David Hearn 57 333 171
174 Richie Ramsay 51 329 175
175 Ryan Fox 42 328 177
176 Whee Kim 58 328 174
177 Derek Fathauer 56 326 176
178 JT Poston 43 324 179
179 George Coetzee 56 323 178
180 Michael Kim 55 318 182
181 Harold Varner 61 318 181
182 Corey Conners 19 318 184
183 David Lipsky 54 317 186
184 Alex Cejka 57 317 180
185 Geoff Ogilvy 48 314 187
186 Daniel Summerhays 56 313 185
187 Seamus Power 45 308 190
188 Chris Stroud 52 307 191
189 Robert Streb 58 307 189
190 Ted Potter 25 305 183
191 Roberto Castro 43 304 188
192 Jeunghun Wang 55 303 193
193 Luke Donald 49 302 192
194 Brice Garnett 31 297 194
195 Dean Burmester 42 294 196
196 Chris Paisley 54 294 197
197 Johnson Wagner 53 291 195
198 Jaco van Zyl 33 286 198
199 Padraig Harrington 47 282 199
200 Billy Hurley 52 277 200
201 Ryan Armour 41 275 201
202 Tom Lovelady 18 274 202
203 Benjamin Hebert 49 272 203
204 Matthew Southgate 57 268 204
205 Kyung-tae Kim 19 266 205
206 Andres Gonzales 47 262 206
207 Rob Oppenheim 38 262 208
208 Xin-jun Zhang 18 261 207
209 Stephen Gallacher 45 260 209
210 Peter Hanson 36 258 210
211 Andrew Putnam 19 254 216
212 Tim Wilkinson 45 252 213
213 Matthieu Pavon 37 252 215
214 Shawn Stefani 58 252 211
215 Richard Bland 50 252 212
216 Julian Etulain 29 251 221
217 Camilo Villegas 57 251 222
218 Cameron Percy 45 251 220
219 Nacho Elvira 55 251 217
220 Ryo Ishikawa 28 250 219
221 Ricky Barnes 61 249 218
222 Retief Goosen 41 249 214
223 Adrian Otaegui 54 248 223
224 Scott Jamieson 53 248 225
225 Troy Merritt 63 247 224
226 Jonas Blixt 49 247 227
227 Curtis Luck 25 243 229
228 Thongchai Jaidee 50 242 228
229 Scott Hend 60 241 230
230 Anthony Wall 39 240 233
231 Nate Lashley 16 239 236
232 Matt Jones 54 239 232
233 Smylie Kaufman 56 239 231
234 Alejandro Canizares 43 236 234
235 John Senden 33 235 226
236 Bradley Dredge 45 234 238
237 Rikard Karlberg 36 233 235
238 Chase Koepka 13 233 241
239 Martin Piller 26 232 237
240 Nicholas Lindheim 40 232 239
241 Callum Shinkwin 43 232 240
242 Ashun Wu 47 230 242
243 Adam Bland 12 229 246
244 Tyler Duncan 20 228 244
245 Matt Wallace 33 227 245
246 Thomas Detry 38 225 247
247 Bronson Burgoon 30 224 250
248 Cameron Tringale 60 223 248
249 Tag Ridings 27 223 252
250 Joakim Lagergren 49 223 249
251 JJ Henry 56 222 254
252 Robert Rock 51 221 253
253 Ben Crane 53 221 251
254 Richy Werenski 44 219 255
255 Robby Shelton 12 218 256
256 Mikko Ilonen 45 213 257
257 Yuta Ikeda 23 213 243
258 Florian Fritsch 31 212 258
259 Graeme Storm 52 212 262
260 Lanto Griffin 16 212 261
261 Benjamin Silverman 18 212 259
262 Zac Blair 63 211 263
263 Michael Putnam 11 210 265
264 Renato Paratore 57 210 264
265 Gregory Bourdy 56 209 260
266 Maximilian Kieffer 47 206 266
267 Will MacKenzie 33 205 269
268 Andrew Dodt 45 205 270
269 Sam Ryder 20 204 275
270 John Peterson 23 204 268
271 Sam Horsfield 20 204 272
272 Joel Dahmen 33 203 271
273 Chris Hanson 51 201 273
274 Kyle Reifers 56 201 267
275 Darren Fichardt 42 200 274
276 KJ Choi 47 198 276
277 David Drysdale 57 198 277
278 Jonathan Byrd 27 198 280
279 Satoshi Kodaira 15 197 383
280 Thomas Aiken 49 196 279
281 Austin Connelly 25 196 281
282 Marc Warren 54 196 278
283 Jordan Smith 23 196 282
284 Sebastian Munoz 24 194 284
285 Marcus Kinhult 17 194 285
286 Vijay Singh 38 192 286
287 Adam Schenk 21 192 287
288 Chad Collins 44 192 283
289 Mikko Korhonen 44 191 289
290 Paul Waring 36 190 290
291 Nino Bertasio 58 190 288
292 Poom Saksansin 17 188 292
293 Jason Scrivener 52 188 293
294 Spencer Levin 53 186 291
295 Jonathan Randolph 41 185 298
296 Oliver Fisher 55 185 296
297 Scott Langley 22 185 294
298 Romain Wattel 50 184 295
299 Fabian Gomez 50 182 299
300 Boo Weekley 40 181 297
301 Greg Owen 38 181 303
302 Khalin Joshi 8 181 305
303 Wade Ormsby 38 181 301
304 Young-han Song 14 180 300
305 Haydn Porteous 61 179 302
306 Jamie Donaldson 46 176 307
307 Ricardo Gouveia 55 175 306
308 Rod Pampling 49 175 308
309 Matteo Manassero 52 173 310
310 James Morrison 55 173 309
311 Gregory Havret 55 173 312
312 Cody Gribble 43 171 311
313 Joachim B Hansen 20 166 315
314 David Bransdon 8 165 313
315 David Toms 14 165 304
316 Alex Prugh 15 163 316
317 Steve Wheatcroft 48 162 314
318 Paul Peterson 49 161 320
319 Aaron Rai 23 161 319
320 Freddie Jacobson 21 160 317
321 Rick Lamb 32 160 322
322 Andrea Pavan 12 159 321
323 Stephan Jaeger 24 158 323
324 Carlos Ortiz 25 157 328
325 Davis Love 26 157 326
326 DA Points 48 156 325
327 Lee Slattery 51 156 327
328 Sam Brazel 39 155 329
329 Julien Quesne 44 155 324
330 Danny Willett 45 155 318
331 Lucas Herbert 12 154 330
332 Lucas Bjerregaard 56 152 332
333 Ryan Brehm 33 151 333
334 Juvic Pagunsan 9 151 338
335 Matt Every 53 150 343
336 Robert Karlsson 45 150 334
337 JC Ritchie 9 150 336
338 Andres Romero 35 150 341
339 Peter Malnati 60 150 337
340 Roberto Diaz 22 149 342
341 Sean Crocker 12 148 344
342 Marcus Fraser 42 148 339
343 Anders Hansen 15 147 340
344 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 33 147 345
345 Hunter Mahan 53 146 349
346 Sangmoon Bae 12 146 347
347 Maverick McNealy 9 145 348
348 Rhein Gibson 21 145 351
349 Trevor Fisher 24 145 350
350 Michael Johnson 10 144 346
351 Bryce Molder 39 144 331
352 Denny McCarthy 19 143 352
353 Angel Cabrera 34 142 335
354 Ashley Chesters 33 142 354
355 Brett Stegmaier 56 141 353
356 Greg Chalmers 53 140 355
357 Lasse Jensen 52 137 356
358 Panuphol Pittayarat 17 137 358
359 Brian Campbell 27 135 363
360 Tapio Pulkkanen 8 135 362
361 Gavin Green 13 135 359
362 Jose-Filipe Lima 30 135 357
363 Brandon Stone 48 135 360
364 Hennie Otto 21 133 365
365 Connor Syme 13 132 366
366 Jake McLeod 8 131 369
367 Sebastian Heisele 25 130 367
368 Will Wilcox 28 130 368
369 Johan Carlsson 46 129 370
370 Marcel Siem 49 129 371
371 Romain Langasque 35 129 372
372 Bernd Ritthammer 30 129 373
373 Wes Roach 19 128 364
374 Bill Lunde 11 128 376
375 Brett Drewitt 27 127 375
376 Phachara Khongwatmai 37 127 379
377 Prayad Marksaeng 9 126 377
378 Raphael Jacquelin 51 126 374
379 Brett Coletta 10 126 381
380 Kristoffer Broberg 27 125 385
381 Jordan Zunic 13 125 378
382 Charlie Ford 13 125 380
383 Erik Van Rooyen 15 125 382
384 Julien Guerrier 14 123 386
385 Ockie Strydom 9 122 384
386 Dicky Pride 25 122 390
387 Thomas Bjorn 36 122 389
388 Jacques Blaauw 16 121 391
389 Yusaku Miyazato 16 121 361
390 Joel Stalter 28 120 388
391 Felipe Aguilar 49 120 387
392 Shiv Kapur 26 118 395
393 Jeff Winther 37 118 394
394 Jordan Niebrugge 9 118 402
395 YE Yang 30 116 396
396 Justin Walters 53 116 398
397 Magnus A Carlsson 40 115 399
398 Steve Marino 29 114 392
399 Nicolas Geyger 8 114 401
400 Ryan Ruffels 12 114 393
More | Less

A look at the Masters

April 3, 2018 Thomas Hawley

As the players have sought to hone their games in preparation for the Masters, the season’s first major, it seems like many have brought questions into discussion of their chances to win.
 Rickie Fowler .. hasn’t had a top-10 since the first event of 2018.
 Dustin Johnson .. lost three straight matches as defending champion in the Match Play.
 Jordan Spieth .. Oh my God, whatever happened to his putting?

Well, of course you can dig up these little nuggets endlessly, and there are plenty of strong points to consider or these guys would not be household names. Spieth ranks no. 1 in this computer analysis. In his four Masters appearances, he Read more

Masters Tournament

April 2, 2018 Thomas Hawley , ,
Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Jordan Spieth 5.4 3
2 Paul Casey 6.5 15
3 Justin Thomas 7.5 17
4 Dustin Johnson 11.1 10
5 Justin Rose 15.6 12
6 Phil Mickelson 18.4 36
7 Jason Day 21.2 20
8 Brooks Koepka 23.6 DNP
9 Rickie Fowler 25.7 2
10 Sergio Garcia 28.7 82
11 Jon Rahm 29.8 4
12 Patrick Cantlay 30.5 58
13 Henrik Stenson 30.7 5
14 Rory McIlroy 31.8 5
15 Alex Noren 32.0 69
16 Patrick Reed 34.1 1
17 Matt Kuchar 34.5 28
18 Webb Simpson 34.8 20
19 Tommy Fleetwood 36.4 17
20 Tiger Woods 36.6 32
21 Xander Schauffele 36.7 50
22 Louis Oosthuizen 37.1 12
23 Bubba Watson 37.1 5
24 Brian Harman 37.2 44
25 Hideki Matsuyama 37.5 19
26 Tony Finau 39.1 10
27 Tyrrell Hatton 40.1 44
28 Brendan Steele 40.2 58
29 Francesco Molinari 41.4 20
30 Adam Hadwin 41.4 24
31 Ryan Moore 41.5 28
32 Marc Leishman 42.4 9
33 Adam Scott 42.7 32
34 Kevin Chappell 43.0 69
35 Kyle Stanley 43.0 52
36 Pat Perez 43.7 65
37 Rafa Cabrera Bello 43.9 38
38 Ian Poulter 44.4 44
39 Cameron Smith 44.9 5
40 Zach Johnson 45.1 36
41 Branden Grace 45.8 24
42 Daniel Berger 45.8 32
43 Charley Hoffman 47.6 12
44 Chez Reavie 48.9 53
45 Russell Henley 49.2 15
46 Kevin Kisner 51.0 28
47 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 51.3 44
48 Gary Woodland 51.9 75
49 Matthew Fitzpatrick 53.6 38
50 Jason Dufner 56.3 54
51 Bryson DeChambeau 56.5 38
52 Charl Schwartzel 56.5 54
53 Bernd Wiesberger 57.8 24
54 Thomas Pieters 58.1 58
55 Ross Fisher 59.1 65
56 Patton Kizzire 59.4 65
57 Jimmy Walker 59.7 20
58 Martin Kaymer 60.3 48
59 Dylan Frittelli 62.0 58
60 Jhonattan Vegas 62.8 38
61 Austin Cook 63.4 75
62 Haotong Li 65.9 32
63 Shubhankar Sharma 66.6 58
64 Si Woo Kim 66.8 24
65 Billy Horschel 67.9 78
66 Wesley Bryan 68.6 65
67 Ted Potter 70.5 58
68 Yuta Ikeda 71.6 69
69 Danny Willett 72.9 58
70 Vijay Singh 73.1 49
71 Yusaku Miyazato 73.6 75
72 Angel Cabrera 75.6 82
73 Trevor Immelman 76.9 69
74 Satoshi Kodaira 78.1 28
75 Fred Couples 80.8 38
76 Joaquin Niemann 81.7 69
77 Bernhard Langer 82.3 38
78 Larry Mize 82.7 81
79 Mike Weir 84.3 78
80 Yuxin Lin 85.3 85
81 Ian Woosnam 85.4 78
82 Sandy Lyle 85.4 54
83 Mark O’Meara 85.4 82
84 Harry Ellis 85.6 87
85 Doug Ghim 85.6 50
86 Matt Parziale 85.6 86
87 Doc Redman 85.6 69
88 Jose Maria Olazabal 85.6 54
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 189. The average is 211. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Apr. 1, 2018)

April 2, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Paul Casey heads into the Masters holding the no. 1 rating for the second week.
# Thru Apr. 1, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Paul Casey 47 1728 1
2 Dustin Johnson 46 1677 2
3 Jordan Spieth 51 1587 4
4 Justin Thomas 53 1558 3
5 Rickie Fowler 51 1428 5
6 Patrick Cantlay 20 1403 6
7 Phil Mickelson 49 1386 7
8 Jon Rahm 44 1385 8
9 Jason Day 43 1368 9
10 Brooks Koepka 42 1326 11
11 Justin Rose 47 1326 10
12 Rory McIlroy 42 1279 12
13 Hideki Matsuyama 46 1215 13
14 Tiger Woods 9 1211 14
15 Henrik Stenson 46 1209 16
16 Sergio Garcia 44 1183 15
17 Matt Kuchar 62 1179 17
18 Marc Leishman 54 1119 18
19 Alex Noren 51 1107 19
20 Brian Harman 58 1102 20
21 Francesco Molinari 50 1090 21
22 Louis Oosthuizen 44 1081 22
23 Pat Perez 37 1070 23
24 Tony Finau 57 1069 25
25 Patrick Reed 69 1067 24
26 Tyrrell Hatton 51 1058 26
27 Webb Simpson 51 1048 29
28 Brendan Steele 48 1047 28
29 Adam Scott 42 1044 27
30 Tommy Fleetwood 56 981 32
31 Charles Howell 49 970 33
32 Rafa Cabrera Bello 61 953 31
33 Kevin Kisner 57 944 35
34 Steve Stricker 28 944 30
35 Ryan Moore 47 938 34
36 Adam Hadwin 54 930 37
37 Sam Burns 8 930 38
38 Kevin Chappell 56 929 36
39 Kyle Stanley 55 905 39
40 Gary Woodland 56 891 40
41 Daniel Berger 53 886 44
42 Branden Grace 56 875 42
43 Xander Schauffele 40 872 43
44 Charley Hoffman 61 859 46
45 Zach Johnson 51 857 47
46 Chez Reavie 56 853 41
47 Emiliano Grillo 56 839 52
48 Brandt Snedeker 46 832 45
49 Jason Dufner 50 819 48
50 Russell Henley 51 815 56
51 Bubba Watson 48 809 49
52 Luke List 61 793 51
53 Ian Poulter 49 792 61
54 Cameron Smith 54 771 53
55 Kevin Na 50 764 54
56 Bill Haas 50 757 50
57 Keegan Bradley 57 751 55
58 Martin Laird 47 745 57
59 James Hahn 55 732 58
60 Lucas Glover 48 729 59
61 Bud Cauley 51 728 64
62 Jamie Lovemark 56 709 67
63 Graham DeLaet 38 708 65
64 Thomas Pieters 49 690 62
65 Charl Schwartzel 47 690 68
66 Byeong Hun An 55 689 63
67 Jason Kokrak 55 688 60
68 Ross Fisher 49 676 69
69 Bernd Wiesberger 55 673 71
70 Ryan Palmer 40 665 66
71 Matthew Fitzpatrick 57 663 73
72 Kevin Streelman 53 650 74
73 Scott Piercy 47 646 77
74 Stewart Cink 45 646 75
75 Martin Kaymer 50 644 72
76 Ollie Schniederjans 44 637 78
77 Brandon Harkins 19 634 70
78 Shane Lowry 53 624 86
79 JB Holmes 53 622 81
80 Sean O’Hair 54 622 76
81 Jhonattan Vegas 60 613 79
82 Jimmy Walker 50 612 83
83 William McGirt 55 607 80
84 Russell Knox 62 596 82
85 Anirban Lahiri 52 592 85
86 Chris Kirk 60 578 84
87 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 56 572 87
88 Jordan L Smith 13 565 88
89 Chesson Hadley 43 557 94
90 Grayson Murray 44 554 97
91 Bryson DeChambeau 57 553 89
92 Jim Furyk 36 546 91
93 Peter Uihlein 45 533 90
94 Lee Westwood 47 520 92
95 Brian Gay 49 518 95
96 Patrick Rodgers 58 516 93
97 Soren Kjeldsen 52 514 96
98 Patton Kizzire 54 508 98
99 Hudson Swafford 54 506 99
100 Graeme McDowell 58 501 100
101 Jerry Kelly 24 492 103
102 Si Woo Kim 60 490 104
103 Sung Kang 62 487 101
104 JJ Spaun 44 486 105
105 Robert Garrigus 51 486 115
106 Scott Stallings 57 485 102
107 Beau Hossler 25 482 158
108 David Lingmerth 58 481 106
109 Victor Dubuisson 31 480 108
110 Billy Horschel 50 468 109
111 Joost Luiten 52 466 110
112 Aaron Wise 24 466 114
113 Haotong Li 48 464 111
114 Scott Brown 56 463 107
115 Alexander Levy 46 460 112
116 Austin Cook 19 460 113
117 Michael Thompson 43 455 133
118 Vaughn Taylor 54 453 116
119 Andrew Landry 29 449 117
120 Nick Watney 33 447 121
121 Nick Taylor 56 436 118
122 Wesley Bryan 42 434 122
123 Paul Dunne 52 434 148
124 Julian Suri 25 432 174
125 Harris English 59 432 119
126 Rory Sabbatini 49 428 120
127 Andy Sullivan 54 426 124
128 Abraham Ancer 32 425 182
129 Keith Mitchell 20 424 202
130 John Huh 56 418 130
131 Ben Martin 56 415 128
132 Kelly Kraft 57 414 126
133 Dylan Frittelli 46 411 125
134 Thorbjorn Olesen 52 409 131
135 Kevin Tway 46 409 132
136 Aaron Baddeley 49 408 123
137 Chad Campbell 56 403 127
138 Danny Lee 66 400 129
139 Rafael Campos 9 396 134
140 Hideto Tanihara 32 387 137
141 Miguel Angel Jimenez 17 384 138
142 Martin Pillar 9 381 194
143 Jim Herman 49 380 139
144 Sam Saunders 53 380 135
145 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 375 144
146 Seung-yul Noh 46 375 145
147 Brandon Hagy 32 373 147
148 Jorge Campillo 52 372 146
149 Dominic Bozzelli 36 372 136
150 Tom Hoge 54 369 140
151 Andrew Johnston 47 368 149
152 CT Pan 48 367 141
153 Mackenzie Hughes 47 365 142
154 Morgan Hoffmann 52 362 150
155 Tyrone van Aswegen 62 358 159
156 Fabrizio Zanotti 48 355 152
157 Henrik Norlander 25 352 162
158 Shubhankar Sharma 21 351 143
159 Richard Sterne 45 350 157
160 Ryan Blaum 45 348 151
161 Alexander Bjork 38 347 160
162 Eddie Pepperell 45 347 161
163 Trey Mullinax 44 343 166
164 Martin Flores 44 342 153
165 David Horsey 48 342 164
166 Nicolas Colsaerts 54 342 165
167 Brian Stuard 60 341 155
168 Blayne Barber 48 339 156
169 Pablo Larrazabal 51 339 168
170 Daisuke Kataoka 11 337 171
171 David Hearn 57 335 169
172 Chris Wood 54 334 172
173 Talor Gooch 19 331 154
174 Whee Kim 58 331 163
175 Richie Ramsay 51 329 178
176 Derek Fathauer 56 327 167
177 Ryan Fox 42 325 180
178 George Coetzee 56 324 179
179 JT Poston 43 323 181
180 Alex Cejka 57 321 173
181 Harold Varner 61 320 175
182 Michael Kim 55 319 176
183 Ted Potter 24 319 186
184 Corey Conners 19 318 170
185 Daniel Summerhays 56 318 183
186 David Lipsky 54 317 187
187 Geoff Ogilvy 48 315 177
188 Roberto Castro 43 312 184
189 Robert Streb 59 307 185
190 Seamus Power 45 307 188
191 Chris Stroud 52 305 189
192 Luke Donald 49 304 191
193 Jeunghun Wang 55 303 193
194 Brice Garnett 31 297 190
195 Johnson Wagner 53 294 192
196 Dean Burmester 42 293 196
197 Chris Paisley 54 293 198
198 Jaco van Zyl 33 286 199
199 Padraig Harrington 47 283 195
200 Billy Hurley 52 279 201
201 Ryan Armour 41 276 203
202 Tom Lovelady 18 274 197
203 Benjamin Hebert 49 271 204
204 Matthew Southgate 57 269 205
205 Kyung-tae Kim 19 265 208
206 Andres Gonzales 47 263 207
207 Xin-jun Zhang 18 263 200
208 Rob Oppenheim 38 261 231
209 Stephen Gallacher 45 260 209
210 Peter Hanson 36 258 210
211 Shawn Stefani 58 255 238
212 Richard Bland 50 254 212
213 Tim Wilkinson 45 253 214
214 Retief Goosen 41 253 206
215 Matthieu Pavon 37 252 217
216 Andrew Putnam 19 252 251
217 Nacho Elvira 55 251 218
218 Ricky Barnes 61 251 216
219 Ryo Ishikawa 28 250 219
220 Cameron Percy 45 250 220
221 Julian Etulain 29 249 221
222 Camilo Villegas 57 249 213
223 Adrian Otaegui 54 248 223
224 Troy Merritt 64 248 226
225 Scott Jamieson 53 247 225
226 John Senden 33 246 211
227 Jonas Blixt 49 246 215
228 Thongchai Jaidee 51 244 227
229 Curtis Luck 25 242 230
230 Scott Hend 60 241 229
231 Smylie Kaufman 57 240 222
232 Matt Jones 54 239 228
233 Anthony Wall 39 239 235
234 Alejandro Canizares 43 238 234
235 Rikard Karlberg 36 237 232
236 Nate Lashley 16 236 349
237 Martin Piller 26 236 233
238 Bradley Dredge 45 235 237
239 Nicholas Lindheim 40 232 306
240 Callum Shinkwin 43 232 239
241 Chase Koepka 13 231 243
242 Ashun Wu 47 230 241
243 Yuta Ikeda 22 230 224
244 Tyler Duncan 20 229 236
245 Matt Wallace 33 228 244
246 Adam Bland 12 227 246
247 Thomas Detry 38 224 248
248 Cameron Tringale 60 224 240
249 Joakim Lagergren 49 224 249
250 Bronson Burgoon 30 223 311
251 Ben Crane 53 223 254
252 Tag Ridings 27 222 253
253 Robert Rock 51 221 252
254 JJ Henry 56 220 247
255 Richy Werenski 44 217 250
256 Robby Shelton 12 216 257
257 Mikko Ilonen 45 215 255
258 Florian Fritsch 31 214 258
259 Benjamin Silverman 18 213 242
260 Gregory Bourdy 56 213 256
261 Lanto Griffin 16 212 245
262 Graeme Storm 52 212 259
263 Zac Blair 63 210 262
264 Renato Paratore 57 209 263
265 Michael Putnam 11 207 270
266 Maximilian Kieffer 47 205 267
267 Kyle Reifers 56 205 261
268 John Peterson 23 205 269
269 Will MacKenzie 33 205 266
270 Andrew Dodt 45 203 274
271 Joel Dahmen 33 203 260
272 Sam Horsfield 20 202 268
273 Chris Hanson 51 202 272
274 Darren Fichardt 42 201 271
275 Sam Ryder 20 201 599
276 KJ Choi 47 199 264
277 David Drysdale 57 198 277
278 Marc Warren 54 197 275
279 Thomas Aiken 49 197 276
280 Jonathan Byrd 27 196 265
281 Austin Connelly 25 195 279
282 Jordan Smith 23 195 280
283 Chad Collins 44 194 278
284 Sebastian Munoz 24 193 286
285 Marcus Kinhult 17 193 290
286 Vijay Singh 38 193 281
287 Adam Schenk 21 192 273
288 Nino Bertasio 58 191 283
289 Mikko Korhonen 44 191 287
290 Paul Waring 36 191 289
291 Spencer Levin 53 189 285
292 Poom Saksansin 17 189 291
293 Jason Scrivener 52 188 295
294 Scott Langley 22 187 292
295 Romain Wattel 50 186 294
296 Oliver Fisher 55 185 297
297 Boo Weekley 40 185 293
298 Jonathan Randolph 41 185 288
299 Fabian Gomez 51 184 282
300 Young-han Song 14 183 296
301 Wade Ormsby 38 181 300
302 Haydn Porteous 61 180 301
303 Greg Owen 38 179 303
304 David Toms 14 178 284
305 Khalin Joshi 8 178 305
306 Ricardo Gouveia 55 177 304
307 Jamie Donaldson 47 177 302
308 Rod Pampling 49 175 298
309 James Morrison 55 174 307
310 Matteo Manassero 52 174 308
311 Cody Gribble 43 174 299
312 Gregory Havret 55 173 310
313 David Bransdon 8 165 315
314 Steve Wheatcroft 48 164 309
315 Joachim B Hansen 20 164 319
316 Alex Prugh 15 164 316
317 Freddie Jacobson 21 163 314
318 Danny Willett 45 163 313
319 Aaron Rai 23 161 320
320 Paul Peterson 49 160 321
321 Andrea Pavan 12 159 322
322 Rick Lamb 32 158 324
323 Stephan Jaeger 24 158 312
324 Julien Quesne 44 156 323
325 DA Points 48 156 317
326 Davis Love 27 156 326
327 Lee Slattery 51 156 325
328 Carlos Ortiz 25 155 330
329 Sam Brazel 39 154 329
330 Lucas Herbert 12 154 331
331 Bryce Molder 39 153 318
332 Lucas Bjerregaard 56 153 328
333 Ryan Brehm 33 151 333
334 Robert Karlsson 45 151 332
335 Angel Cabrera 34 151 334
336 JC Ritchie 9 150 337
337 Peter Malnati 60 150 327
338 Juvic Pagunsan 9 149 341
339 Marcus Fraser 42 149 336
340 Anders Hansen 15 149 335
341 Andres Romero 35 149 340
342 Roberto Diaz 22 149 399
343 Matt Every 53 149 462
344 Sean Crocker 12 148 339
345 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 33 148 342
346 Michael Johnson 10 147 338
347 Sangmoon Bae 12 147 344
348 Maverick McNealy 9 146 343
349 Hunter Mahan 54 146 350
350 Trevor Fisher 24 145 347
351 Rhein Gibson 21 144 346
352 Denny McCarthy 19 143 371
353 Brett Stegmaier 56 142 352
354 Ashley Chesters 33 142 348
355 Greg Chalmers 53 140 345
356 Lasse Jensen 52 137 353
357 Jose-Filipe Lima 30 136 354
358 Panuphol Pittayarat 17 135 359
359 Gavin Green 13 135 360
360 Brandon Stone 48 135 356
361 Yusaku Miyazato 15 135 355
362 Tapio Pulkkanen 8 135 357
363 Brian Campbell 27 134 361
364 Wes Roach 19 133 351
365 Hennie Otto 21 133 362
366 Connor Syme 13 133 358
367 Sebastian Heisele 25 131 365
368 Will Wilcox 28 131 363
369 Jake McLeod 8 131 364
370 Johan Carlsson 46 130 366
371 Marcel Siem 49 129 367
372 Romain Langasque 36 129 369
373 Bernd Ritthammer 30 129 368
374 Raphael Jacquelin 51 127 370
375 Brett Drewitt 27 127 372
376 Bill Lunde 11 127 378
377 Prayad Marksaeng 9 126 374
378 Jordan Zunic 13 126 373
379 Phachara Khongwatmai 37 126 376
380 Charlie Ford 13 125 377
381 Brett Coletta 10 125 380
382 Erik Van Rooyen 15 124 379
383 Satoshi Kodaira 14 124 382
384 Ockie Strydom 9 123 381
385 Kristoffer Broberg 27 123 388
386 Julien Guerrier 14 122 383
387 Felipe Aguilar 49 121 384
388 Joel Stalter 28 121 385
389 Thomas Bjorn 36 121 389
390 Dicky Pride 25 121 390
391 Jacques Blaauw 16 120 391
392 Steve Marino 29 119 387
393 Ryan Ruffels 12 118 386
394 Jeff Winther 37 117 393
395 Shiv Kapur 26 117 395
396 YE Yang 30 117 394
397 Richard Lee 10 116 392
398 Justin Walters 53 116 396
399 Magnus A Carlsson 40 116 397
400 Clement Sordet 13 114 400
More | Less

Houston Open

March 26, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Phil Mickelson
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Phil Mickelson 10.8 24
2 Rickie Fowler 14.4 43
3 Justin Rose 18.7 52
4 Jordan Spieth 18.9 3
5 Steve Stricker 29.9 91
6 Henrik Stenson 34.1 6
7 Tony Finau 36.2 24
8 Russell Henley 37.5 8
9 Luke List 38.3 24
10 Charles Howell 39.1 18
11 Matt Kuchar 40.4 8
12 Rafa Cabrera Bello 41.6 135
13 Daniel Berger 43.3 18
14 Chez Reavie 46.1 91
15 Jason Kokrak 47.7 80
16 Byeong Hun An 48.8 52
17 Keegan Bradley 48.9 43
18 Jamie Lovemark 49.2 24
19 Brandt Snedeker 50.0 87
20 James Hahn 51.4 32
21 Emiliano Grillo 51.8 3
22 Jason Dufner 51.9 64
23 Bud Cauley 53.7 18
24 Kevin Streelman 54.2 43
25 Ian Poulter 55.3 1
26 Sean O’Hair 55.4 64
27 Lucas Glover 55.6 32
28 Scott Piercy 55.7 24
29 JB Holmes 56.1 32
30 Brandon Harkins 56.4 60
31 Chris Kirk 56.6 104
32 Ryan Palmer 56.9 119
33 William McGirt 57.2 91
34 Thomas Pieters 57.5 52
35 Bill Haas 57.9 76
36 Grayson Murray 58.0 14
37 Scott Stallings 58.2 80
38 Russell Knox 58.2 104
39 Lee Westwood 58.8 80
40 Martin Kaymer 58.9 131
41 Jhonattan Vegas 58.9 87
42 Vaughn Taylor 59.0 DNP
43 Patrick Rodgers 59.2 123
44 Rory Sabbatini 59.3 70
45 John Huh 59.7 32
46 Peter Uihlein 60.3 104
47 Chesson Hadley 60.8 18
48 Shane Lowry 61.7 14
49 Harris English 62.3 91
50 Kelly Kraft 62.4 80
51 Aaron Baddeley 62.6 74
52 Dominic Bozzelli 63.0 90
53 Sung Kang 63.7 WD
54 Derek Fathauer 64.0 104
55 Michael Thompson 64.2 14
56 Nick Watney 64.8 32
57 Chris Stroud 65.3 114
58 Aaron Wise 65.4 32
59 CT Pan 65.5 91
60 Tom Hoge 65.6 60
61 Nick Taylor 65.7 123
62 Shubhankar Sharma 65.8 104
63 Scott Brown 65.9 76
64 Martin Flores 66.1 140
65 Sam Saunders 66.2 72
66 Robert Garrigus 66.3 18
67 Cameron Tringale 66.4 131
68 Brice Garnett 66.4 91
69 Corey Conners 66.5 123
70 Talor Gooch 66.7 135
71 Chad Campbell 66.8 64
72 Johnson Wagner 67.0 52
73 Tyrone van Aswegen 67.2 32
74 Abraham Ancer 67.4 8
75 Kevin Tway 68.0 32
76 Ryan Blaum 68.2 123
77 Tom Lovelady 68.2 68
78 Blayne Barber 68.4 91
79 Danny Lee 69.0 64
80 Brian Stuard 69.1 131
81 Beau Hossler 69.1 2
82 Seamus Power 69.4 60
83 Harold Varner 69.4 91
84 Whee Kim 69.4 123
85 Morgan Hoffmann 69.5 DNP
86 Alex Cejka 69.5 91
87 Mackenzie Hughes 69.6 123
88 Michael Kim 69.7 91
89 Yuta Ikeda 70.1 135
90 Matt Jones 70.1 52
91 Retief Goosen 70.1 135
92 Geoff Ogilvy 70.1 119
93 Ryan Armour 70.2 43
94 Troy Merritt 70.3 43
95 JT Poston 70.4 DNP
96 Ben Crane 70.4 43
97 KJ Choi 70.5 119
98 Keith Mitchell 70.6 6
99 Joel Dahmen 70.8 76
100 Xin-jun Zhang 70.8 114
101 Robert Streb 70.8 123
102 Shawn Stefani 70.9 24
103 Hunter Mahan 70.9 43
104 Padraig Harrington 71.0 89
105 Rob Oppenheim 71.0 32
106 Lanto Griffin 71.1 123
107 JJ Henry 71.7 104
108 Adam Schenk 72.0 60
109 Jonas Blixt 72.0 114
110 Tyler Duncan 72.1 52
111 Camilo Villegas 72.2 135
112 Andrew Putnam 72.3 32
113 DA Points 72.6 104
114 Richy Werenski 72.7 85
115 Martin Pillar 72.7 24
116 Benjamin Silverman 72.8 80
117 Smylie Kaufman 73.1 142
118 Jonathan Byrd 73.3 76
119 Peter Malnati 73.3 104
120 Greg Chalmers 73.4 70
121 Fabian Gomez 73.6 85
122 Nicholas Lindheim 73.7 14
123 Stephan Jaeger 73.7 91
124 Bronson Burgoon 73.9 24
125 Cody Gribble 73.9 91
126 Jonathan Randolph 73.9 141
127 Rod Pampling 74.0 91
128 Steve Wheatcroft 74.2 145
129 Denny McCarthy 74.8 43
130 Nate Lashley 75.0 18
131 Brett Stegmaier 75.0 43
132 Roberto Diaz 75.2 32
133 Ernie Els 75.3 72
134 Andrew Loupe 75.3 104
135 Matt Every 75.5 8
136 Jon Curran 75.7 114
137 Matt Atkins 76.4 DNP
138 Ethan Tracy 76.5 75
139 Conrad Shindler 76.9 DNP
140 Sam Ryder 77.5 5
141 Ze-cheng Dou 77.9 DNP
142 Kyle Thompson 78.1 DNP
143 Andrew Yun 78.2 145
144 Bob Estes 82.4 131
145 Kris Blanks 85.1 DNP
146 JJ Wood 85.6 143
147 Bobby Gates 85.7 52
Julian Suri late entry 9
Paul Dunne late entry 13
Seung-su Han late entry 59
Dawie van der Walt late entry 68
Dylan Frittelli late entry 113
Zach Cabra late entry 118
Ryan Baca late entry 121
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 183. The average is 212. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.