Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Mar. 25, 2018)

March 26, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Paul Casey moves into the no. 1 rating for the first time this week.
# Thru Mar. 25, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Paul Casey 47 1725 2
2 Dustin Johnson 47 1682 1
3 Justin Thomas 53 1555 4
4 Jordan Spieth 51 1548 3
5 Rickie Fowler 51 1465 5
6 Patrick Cantlay 20 1408 8
7 Phil Mickelson 49 1400 9
8 Jon Rahm 44 1386 6
9 Jason Day 43 1376 7
10 Justin Rose 46 1372 10
11 Brooks Koepka 43 1325 11
12 Rory McIlroy 42 1285 12
13 Hideki Matsuyama 46 1215 13
14 Tiger Woods 9 1209 14
15 Sergio Garcia 45 1181 17
16 Henrik Stenson 46 1161 15
17 Matt Kuchar 61 1148 18
18 Marc Leishman 54 1116 16
19 Alex Noren 51 1101 27
20 Brian Harman 59 1095 25
21 Francesco Molinari 50 1088 20
22 Louis Oosthuizen 45 1079 23
23 Pat Perez 37 1073 19
24 Patrick Reed 70 1070 21
25 Tony Finau 57 1068 26
26 Tyrrell Hatton 51 1059 28
27 Adam Scott 42 1047 24
28 Brendan Steele 49 1045 29
29 Webb Simpson 51 1045 22
30 Steve Stricker 28 1007 30
31 Rafa Cabrera Bello 61 984 31
32 Tommy Fleetwood 56 975 32
33 Charles Howell 49 951 37
34 Ryan Moore 47 939 34
35 Kevin Kisner 57 938 44
36 Kevin Chappell 57 931 33
37 Adam Hadwin 55 926 39
38 Sam Burns 8 923 35
39 Kyle Stanley 56 900 47
40 Gary Woodland 57 894 38
41 Chez Reavie 56 880 40
42 Branden Grace 56 875 41
43 Xander Schauffele 40 873 46
44 Daniel Berger 53 871 36
45 Brandt Snedeker 45 865 43
46 Charley Hoffman 62 857 45
47 Zach Johnson 51 856 42
48 Jason Dufner 49 847 48
49 Bubba Watson 48 809 59
50 Bill Haas 49 787 52
51 Luke List 61 784 50
52 Emiliano Grillo 55 780 49
53 Cameron Smith 55 768 61
54 Kevin Na 50 768 51
55 Keegan Bradley 57 764 53
56 Russell Henley 51 760 54
57 Martin Laird 48 745 55
58 James Hahn 55 733 56
59 Lucas Glover 48 732 57
60 Jason Kokrak 55 712 60
61 Ian Poulter 48 711 75
62 Thomas Pieters 48 707 58
63 Byeong Hun An 54 706 63
64 Bud Cauley 50 705 64
65 Graham DeLaet 39 703 66
66 Ryan Palmer 40 702 62
67 Jamie Lovemark 56 694 67
68 Charl Schwartzel 48 692 65
69 Ross Fisher 49 673 68
70 Brandon Harkins 18 673 70
71 Bernd Wiesberger 56 671 72
72 Martin Kaymer 49 671 69
73 Matthew Fitzpatrick 57 661 73
74 Kevin Streelman 53 660 74
75 Stewart Cink 46 645 77
76 Sean O’Hair 54 643 78
77 Scott Piercy 47 636 71
78 Ollie Schniederjans 44 635 80
79 Jhonattan Vegas 60 633 76
80 William McGirt 55 631 79
81 JB Holmes 52 622 81
82 Russell Knox 61 618 82
83 Jimmy Walker 51 614 83
84 Chris Kirk 59 600 84
85 Anirban Lahiri 53 591 85
86 Shane Lowry 53 588 87
87 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 56 573 99
88 Jordan L Smith 13 563 88
89 Bryson DeChambeau 57 555 89
90 Peter Uihlein 44 552 95
91 Jim Furyk 36 551 86
92 Lee Westwood 47 542 90
93 Patrick Rodgers 58 531 91
94 Chesson Hadley 43 518 96
95 Brian Gay 49 517 94
96 Soren Kjeldsen 52 516 92
97 Grayson Murray 43 513 97
98 Patton Kizzire 55 510 98
99 Hudson Swafford 55 505 100
100 Graeme McDowell 58 503 93
101 Sung Kang 62 500 101
102 Scott Stallings 57 498 103
103 Jerry Kelly 24 494 102
104 Si Woo Kim 61 492 117
105 JJ Spaun 44 485 105
106 David Lingmerth 58 482 104
107 Scott Brown 56 477 106
108 Victor Dubuisson 31 477 109
109 Billy Horschel 50 471 110
110 Joost Luiten 52 467 111
111 Haotong Li 48 462 107
112 Alexander Levy 46 460 113
113 Austin Cook 19 458 114
114 Aaron Wise 23 455 115
115 Robert Garrigus 50 455 108
116 Vaughn Taylor 55 453 116
117 Andrew Landry 29 449 120
118 Nick Taylor 56 449 119
119 Harris English 59 446 122
120 Rory Sabbatini 48 439 118
121 Nick Watney 32 436 121
122 Wesley Bryan 42 432 123
123 Aaron Baddeley 49 426 125
124 Andy Sullivan 54 426 124
125 Dylan Frittelli 45 425 126
126 Kelly Kraft 56 423 132
127 Chad Campbell 56 415 128
128 Ben Martin 57 414 127
129 Danny Lee 65 412 129
130 John Huh 56 410 131
131 Thorbjorn Olesen 52 409 130
132 Kevin Tway 45 399 133
133 Michael Thompson 42 395 135
134 Rafael Campos 10 391 112
135 Sam Saunders 52 391 136
136 Dominic Bozzelli 35 387 137
137 Hideto Tanihara 32 385 139
138 Miguel Angel Jimenez 17 384 138
139 Jim Herman 50 380 140
140 Tom Hoge 53 379 141
141 CT Pan 47 378 142
142 Mackenzie Hughes 46 376 143
143 Shubhankar Sharma 20 375 134
144 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 374 144
145 Seung-yul Noh 47 373 145
146 Jorge Campillo 52 373 147
147 Brandon Hagy 32 372 146
148 Paul Dunne 51 370 153
149 Andrew Johnston 47 370 148
150 Morgan Hoffmann 53 361 151
151 Ryan Blaum 44 360 150
152 Fabrizio Zanotti 48 356 149
153 Martin Flores 43 354 164
154 Talor Gooch 18 354 154
155 Brian Stuard 59 352 152
156 Blayne Barber 48 352 156
157 Richard Sterne 45 351 155
158 Beau Hossler 24 350 160
159 Tyrone van Aswegen 62 349 159
160 Alexander Bjork 38 346 161
161 Eddie Pepperell 45 346 162
162 Henrik Norlander 25 346 170
163 Whee Kim 58 343 163
164 David Horsey 48 343 167
165 Nicolas Colsaerts 54 343 168
166 Trey Mullinax 44 342 169
167 Derek Fathauer 56 339 158
168 Pablo Larrazabal 51 339 175
169 David Hearn 58 339 157
170 Corey Conners 18 338 183
171 Daisuke Kataoka 11 337 171
172 Chris Wood 54 335 165
173 Alex Cejka 57 335 172
174 Julian Suri 24 333 190
175 Harold Varner 61 333 166
176 Michael Kim 55 330 173
177 Geoff Ogilvy 48 327 179
178 Richie Ramsay 51 327 178
179 George Coetzee 56 324 180
180 Ryan Fox 42 323 181
181 JT Poston 43 323 184
182 Abraham Ancer 31 323 189
183 Daniel Summerhays 56 322 174
184 Roberto Castro 44 320 177
185 Robert Streb 58 319 176
186 Ted Potter 24 317 185
187 David Lipsky 54 316 186
188 Seamus Power 44 316 194
189 Chris Stroud 52 315 187
190 Brice Garnett 30 311 201
191 Luke Donald 49 307 188
192 Johnson Wagner 53 303 182
193 Jeunghun Wang 55 302 191
194 Martin Pillar 8 300 192
195 Padraig Harrington 47 295 193
196 Dean Burmester 42 292 196
197 Tom Lovelady 17 292 220
198 Chris Paisley 54 292 195
199 Jaco van Zyl 33 285 197
200 Xin-jun Zhang 17 282 234
201 Billy Hurley 52 281 198
202 Keith Mitchell 19 277 248
203 Ryan Armour 40 274 199
204 Benjamin Hebert 49 271 202
205 Matthew Southgate 57 270 203
206 Retief Goosen 41 266 200
207 Andres Gonzales 48 264 205
208 Kyung-tae Kim 19 264 207
209 Stephen Gallacher 45 259 208
210 Peter Hanson 36 258 211
211 John Senden 34 257 204
212 Richard Bland 50 256 209
213 Camilo Villegas 57 255 214
214 Tim Wilkinson 45 255 212
215 Jonas Blixt 49 254 217
216 Ricky Barnes 62 254 206
217 Matthieu Pavon 37 253 215
218 Nacho Elvira 55 251 219
219 Ryo Ishikawa 28 251 218
220 Cameron Percy 45 250 210
221 Julian Etulain 29 248 222
222 Smylie Kaufman 56 248 213
223 Adrian Otaegui 54 247 223
224 Yuta Ikeda 21 247 271
225 Scott Jamieson 53 246 225
226 Troy Merritt 63 246 221
227 Thongchai Jaidee 52 245 224
228 Matt Jones 54 243 231
229 Scott Hend 60 242 227
230 Curtis Luck 25 241 230
231 Rob Oppenheim 37 240 226
232 Rikard Karlberg 36 240 228
233 Martin Piller 26 239 229
234 Alejandro Canizares 43 238 233
235 Anthony Wall 39 237 235
236 Tyler Duncan 19 235 216
237 Bradley Dredge 45 235 236
238 Shawn Stefani 58 233 251
239 Callum Shinkwin 43 233 237
240 Cameron Tringale 60 231 232
241 Ashun Wu 47 230 239
242 Benjamin Silverman 17 230 240
243 Chase Koepka 13 229 243
244 Matt Wallace 33 229 241
245 Lanto Griffin 15 228 249
246 Adam Bland 12 228 245
247 JJ Henry 56 225 238
248 Thomas Detry 38 225 247
249 Joakim Lagergren 49 225 246
250 Richy Werenski 43 224 242
251 Andrew Putnam 18 223 310
252 Robert Rock 51 222 252
253 Tag Ridings 27 221 253
254 Ben Crane 53 220 244
255 Mikko Ilonen 45 218 255
256 Gregory Bourdy 56 216 254
257 Robby Shelton 12 215 259
258 Florian Fritsch 31 215 256
259 Graeme Storm 52 212 260
260 Joel Dahmen 32 212 281
261 Kyle Reifers 57 210 250
262 Zac Blair 64 209 258
263 Renato Paratore 57 209 261
264 KJ Choi 47 207 297
265 Jonathan Byrd 26 206 257
266 Will MacKenzie 34 205 262
267 Maximilian Kieffer 47 205 265
268 Sam Horsfield 20 203 269
269 John Peterson 23 203 268
270 Michael Putnam 11 203 274
271 Darren Fichardt 42 203 264
272 Chris Hanson 51 202 267
273 Adam Schenk 20 202 266
274 Andrew Dodt 45 201 273
275 Marc Warren 54 199 270
276 Thomas Aiken 49 198 275
277 David Drysdale 57 197 276
278 Chad Collins 45 197 272
279 Austin Connelly 25 195 280
280 Jordan Smith 23 195 279
281 Vijay Singh 39 194 277
282 Fabian Gomez 50 194 290
283 Nino Bertasio 58 193 282
284 David Toms 15 192 263
285 Spencer Levin 54 192 278
286 Sebastian Munoz 24 192 289
287 Mikko Korhonen 44 191 286
288 Jonathan Randolph 40 191 288
289 Paul Waring 36 191 285
290 Marcus Kinhult 17 190 292
291 Poom Saksansin 17 190 287
292 Scott Langley 23 189 284
293 Boo Weekley 41 188 283
294 Romain Wattel 50 188 291
295 Jason Scrivener 52 187 294
296 Young-han Song 14 185 293
297 Oliver Fisher 55 184 295
298 Rod Pampling 48 183 299
299 Cody Gribble 42 182 296
300 Wade Ormsby 38 181 300
301 Haydn Porteous 61 180 302
302 Jamie Donaldson 48 178 301
303 Greg Owen 39 178 305
304 Ricardo Gouveia 55 177 303
305 Khalin Joshi 8 177 309
306 Nicholas Lindheim 39 176 304
307 James Morrison 55 175 306
308 Matteo Manassero 52 175 308
309 Steve Wheatcroft 48 172 314
310 Gregory Havret 55 172 311
311 Bronson Burgoon 29 170 298
312 Stephan Jaeger 23 167 307
313 Danny Willett 45 167 312
314 Freddie Jacobson 22 166 315
315 David Bransdon 8 165 318
316 Alex Prugh 15 164 319
317 DA Points 48 162 316
318 Bryce Molder 40 162 313
319 Joachim B Hansen 20 161 324
320 Aaron Rai 23 161 320
321 Paul Peterson 49 160 323
322 Andrea Pavan 12 159 322
323 Julien Quesne 44 158 325
324 Rick Lamb 32 157 326
325 Lee Slattery 51 156 327
326 Davis Love 28 155 317
327 Peter Malnati 60 154 330
328 Lucas Bjerregaard 56 154 329
329 Sam Brazel 39 153 331
330 Carlos Ortiz 26 153 337
331 Lucas Herbert 12 153 332
332 Robert Karlsson 45 152 333
333 Ryan Brehm 33 152 339
334 Angel Cabrera 35 151 321
335 Anders Hansen 15 150 335
336 Marcus Fraser 42 150 336
337 JC Ritchie 9 150 338
338 Michael Johnson 10 149 334
339 Sean Crocker 12 148 341
340 Andres Romero 36 148 328
341 Juvic Pagunsan 9 148 346
342 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 33 147 343
343 Maverick McNealy 9 145 344
344 Sangmoon Bae 12 145 345
345 Greg Chalmers 52 144 340
346 Rhein Gibson 22 144 347
347 Trevor Fisher 24 143 348
348 Ashley Chesters 33 141 351
349 Nate Lashley 15 140 375
350 Hunter Mahan 54 139 353
351 Wes Roach 19 138 350
352 Brett Stegmaier 56 138 349
353 Lasse Jensen 52 137 355
354 Jose-Filipe Lima 30 137 352
355 Yusaku Miyazato 15 136 356
356 Brandon Stone 48 135 358
357 Tapio Pulkkanen 8 135 360
358 Connor Syme 13 134 359
359 Panuphol Pittayarat 17 134 363
360 Gavin Green 13 134 361
361 Brian Campbell 27 133 365
362 Hennie Otto 21 133 362
363 Will Wilcox 29 131 364
364 Jake McLeod 8 131 367
365 Sebastian Heisele 25 131 366
366 Johan Carlsson 46 130 368
367 Marcel Siem 49 129 369
368 Bernd Ritthammer 30 129 370
369 Romain Langasque 36 129 371
370 Raphael Jacquelin 51 128 372
371 Denny McCarthy 18 128 514
372 Brett Drewitt 27 128 373
373 Jordan Zunic 13 127 374
374 Prayad Marksaeng 9 127 376
375 Colt Knost 28 126 354
376 Phachara Khongwatmai 37 126 379
377 Charlie Ford 13 126 378
378 Bill Lunde 11 125 382
379 Erik Van Rooyen 15 124 385
380 Brett Coletta 10 124 386
381 Ockie Strydom 9 124 381
382 Satoshi Kodaira 14 123 357
383 Julien Guerrier 14 123 388
384 Felipe Aguilar 49 123 383
385 Joel Stalter 28 122 387
386 Ryan Ruffels 12 122 380
387 Steve Marino 30 121 377
388 Kristoffer Broberg 27 121 392
389 Thomas Bjorn 36 120 391
390 Dicky Pride 25 119 404
391 Jacques Blaauw 16 118 394
392 Richard Lee 10 118 390
393 Jeff Winther 37 117 396
394 YE Yang 30 117 395
395 Shiv Kapur 26 117 399
396 Justin Walters 53 116 397
397 Magnus A Carlsson 40 116 398
398 Jon Curran 39 115 389
399 Roberto Diaz 21 115 384
400 Clement Sordet 13 115 400
More | Less

Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship

March 19, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Emiliano Grillo
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Emiliano Grillo 15.1 50
2 Scott Piercy 24.2 60
3 Brandon Harkins 29.6 DNP
4 Patrick Rodgers 30.3 22
5 Jim Furyk 32.3 82
6 Rory Sabbatini 32.5 43
7 Graeme McDowell 34.2 99
8 Aaron Baddeley 37.8 DNP
9 Derek Fathauer 40.8 104
10 Kelly Kraft 41.4 3
11 Harris English 41.7 5
12 Rafael Campos 42.5 92
13 Seung-su Han 44.7 5
14 David Lingmerth 46.3 28
15 Robert Garrigus 46.8 111
16 Trey Mullinax 47.8 22
17 Corey Conners 49.3 13
18 Chris Wood 50.5 54
19 Fabrizio Zanotti 51.6 50
20 David Hearn 52.0 50
21 Kevin Tway 52.4 28
22 Abraham Ancer 53.2 13
23 Troy Merritt 53.7 35
24 Michael Kim 54.1 43
25 Alex Cejka 54.2 DNP
26 Daniel Summerhays 54.6 99
27 Johnson Wagner 54.6 70
28 Brice Garnett 55.2 1
29 JT Poston 56.1 19
30 Lanto Griffin 56.3 28
31 Robert Streb 56.4 117
32 Geoff Ogilvy 56.7 22
33 Harold Varner 57.0 45
34 Tom Lovelady 58.0 5
35 Seamus Power 58.0 5
36 Paul Dunne 58.1 5
37 Ricky Barnes 58.1 60
38 Retief Goosen 59.5 35
39 Tyler Duncan 59.8 99
40 Smylie Kaufman 60.3 92
41 Cameron Percy 60.4 54
42 Matt Jones 60.4 28
43 Cameron Tringale 60.9 111
44 Martin Flores 61.2 13
45 Adam Schenk 61.3 35
46 Xin-jun Zhang 61.5 5
47 Shawn Stefani 62.2 13
48 Jonathan Byrd 62.4 54
49 Zac Blair 62.6 92
50 Joel Dahmen 62.9 13
51 Rob Oppenheim 62.9 35
52 JJ Henry 63.2 65
53 Bronson Burgoon 63.2 82
54 KJ Choi 63.3 5
55 Keith Mitchell 63.4 2
56 Ben Crane 63.4 45
57 Richy Werenski 63.9 45
58 Greg Chalmers 64.1 111
59 Stephan Jaeger 64.6 54
60 Fabian Gomez 64.7 22
61 DA Points 65.2 111
62 Nate Lashley 65.7 28
63 Davis Love 65.9 70
64 Andrew Putnam 65.9 5
65 Steve Wheatcroft 66.1 28
66 Andres Romero 66.7 111
67 Ryan Brehm 67.1 35
68 Brett Stegmaier 67.2 60
69 Angel Cabrera 67.3 111
70 Roberto Diaz 67.3 99
71 Hunter Mahan 69.4 35
72 Arjun Atwal 69.8 82
73 Dicky Pride 70.0 35
74 John Merrick 70.1 28
75 Ken Duke 70.4 65
76 Eric Axley 70.4 54
77 Jason Gore 70.4 82
78 Stuart Appleby 70.6 80
79 Brendon de Jonge 71.4 72
80 Ethan Tracy 71.4 54
81 Tim Herron 71.5 76
82 John Daly 71.8 65
83 Mark Wilson 71.9 65
84 Conrad Shindler 72.0 92
85 Matt Every 72.0 35
86 Denny McCarthy 72.8 4
87 Robert Allenby 72.8 81
88 Jason Bohn 73.3 82
89 Michael Bradley 73.4 DNP
90 Trevor Immelman 73.5 77
91 Sam Ryder 73.7 82
92 Matt Atkins 73.9 22
93 Carl Pettersson 74.1 99
94 Brian Davis 74.2 117
95 Steven Bowditch 74.2 117
96 George McNeill 74.2 13
97 Mike Weir 74.3 73
98 Daniel Chopra 74.9 45
99 Ze-cheng Dou 74.9 104
100 John Rollins 75.2 92
101 DJ Trahan 75.7 60
102 Dru Love 75.8 92
103 Kyle Thompson 75.8 110
104 Ted Purdy 75.8 117
105 Omar Uresti 75.9 73
106 Marc Turnesa 75.9 104
107 Heath Slocum 76.2 124
108 Troy Matteson 76.3 19
109 Augusto Nunez 76.3 60
110 Parker McLachlin 76.3 69
111 Andrew Filbert 76.3 124
112 Robert Gamez 76.3 128
113 Vince India 76.3 52
114 Richard Johnson 76.3 104
115 Jonathan Kaye 76.3 82
116 Tyler McCumber 76.3 19
117 Rhadames Pena 76.3 131
118 Willy Pumarol 76.3 124
119 George Riley 76.3 117
120 Santiago Rivas 76.3 45
121 Tony Romo 76.3 132
122 Julio Santos 76.3 73
123 Hiram Silfa 76.3 104
124 Brendon Todd 76.3 104
125 Zach Zaback 76.3 117
126 Jay Don Blake 76.3 DNP
127 Tom Byrum 76.3 DNP
128 Keith Clearwater 76.3 128
129 Russ Cochran 76.3 DNP
130 Neal Lancaster 76.3 DNP
131 Brett Wetterich 76.3 DNP
132 Tommy Gainey 76.3 22
133 Andrew Yun 76.3 77
134 Dudley Hart 76.3 82
135 Frank Lickliter 76.4 82
136 Len Mattiace 76.5 128
137 Shaun Micheel 76.5 92
138 Matt Bettencourt 76.5 117
139 Cameron Beckman 76.8 77
140 Glen Day 77.0 DNP
141 Chris Smith 77.8 DNP
Kyle Reifers late entry 84
Guy Boros late entry 126
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 41. The average is 212. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Mar. 18, 2018)

March 19, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson has completed a year on top with 53 straight weeks at no. 1.
# Thru Mar. 18, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Dustin Johnson 47 1756 1
2 Paul Casey 47 1730 2
3 Jordan Spieth 51 1549 3
4 Justin Thomas 53 1509 4
5 Rickie Fowler 52 1458 6
6 Jon Rahm 43 1433 7
7 Jason Day 43 1426 5
8 Patrick Cantlay 19 1398 8
9 Phil Mickelson 49 1393 9
10 Justin Rose 47 1374 11
11 Brooks Koepka 44 1324 10
12 Rory McIlroy 42 1320 13
13 Hideki Matsuyama 46 1244 12
14 Tiger Woods 9 1213 31
15 Henrik Stenson 46 1163 18
16 Marc Leishman 54 1146 19
17 Sergio Garcia 45 1141 14
18 Matt Kuchar 61 1134 15
19 Pat Perez 36 1112 16
20 Francesco Molinari 49 1068 23
21 Patrick Reed 70 1056 27
22 Webb Simpson 50 1056 24
23 Louis Oosthuizen 45 1053 17
24 Adam Scott 43 1052 20
25 Brian Harman 58 1051 21
26 Tony Finau 57 1050 25
27 Alex Noren 50 1033 26
28 Tyrrell Hatton 50 1032 22
29 Brendan Steele 48 1023 28
30 Steve Stricker 28 1005 30
31 Rafa Cabrera Bello 61 999 29
32 Tommy Fleetwood 55 951 32
33 Kevin Chappell 56 946 36
34 Ryan Moore 48 938 41
35 Sam Burns 8 923
36 Daniel Berger 53 904 33
37 Charles Howell 48 904 42
38 Gary Woodland 56 898 35
39 Adam Hadwin 54 898 37
40 Chez Reavie 55 881 39
41 Branden Grace 56 879 40
42 Zach Johnson 51 869 43
43 Brandt Snedeker 46 866 34
44 Kevin Kisner 57 865 38
45 Charley Hoffman 62 864 45
46 Xander Schauffele 39 844 44
47 Kyle Stanley 56 838 49
48 Jason Dufner 49 820 46
49 Emiliano Grillo 55 809 48
50 Luke List 61 805 56
51 Kevin Na 50 795 47
52 Bill Haas 50 786 50
53 Keegan Bradley 56 771 52
54 Russell Henley 50 768 51
55 Martin Laird 48 742 59
56 James Hahn 54 737 53
57 Lucas Glover 48 732 55
58 Thomas Pieters 48 725 61
59 Bubba Watson 48 723 54
60 Jason Kokrak 55 714 57
61 Cameron Smith 55 708 60
62 Ryan Palmer 40 708 62
63 Byeong Hun An 55 705 71
64 Bud Cauley 50 703 73
65 Charl Schwartzel 48 702 58
66 Graham DeLaet 40 698 65
67 Jamie Lovemark 56 692 64
68 Ross Fisher 48 675 69
69 Martin Kaymer 50 673 68
70 Brandon Harkins 18 671 67
71 Scott Piercy 47 667 63
72 Bernd Wiesberger 56 663 74
73 Matthew Fitzpatrick 57 663 66
74 Kevin Streelman 53 660 70
75 Ian Poulter 48 649 75
76 Jhonattan Vegas 60 648 76
77 Stewart Cink 46 643 72
78 Sean O’Hair 54 641 85
79 William McGirt 56 635 81
80 Ollie Schniederjans 44 633 79
81 JB Holmes 53 625 80
82 Russell Knox 62 624 77
83 Jimmy Walker 52 617 78
84 Chris Kirk 60 604 86
85 Anirban Lahiri 54 591 82
86 Jim Furyk 35 590 84
87 Shane Lowry 54 589 83
88 Jordan L Smith 13 560 87
89 Bryson DeChambeau 57 554 107
90 Lee Westwood 48 544 88
91 Patrick Rodgers 58 533 110
92 Soren Kjeldsen 53 519 94
93 Graeme McDowell 58 518 99
94 Brian Gay 49 516 102
95 Peter Uihlein 43 515 89
96 Chesson Hadley 44 514 92
97 Grayson Murray 43 513 111
98 Patton Kizzire 55 512 90
99 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 56 508 91
100 Hudson Swafford 55 505 93
101 Sung Kang 62 497 96
102 Jerry Kelly 25 497 98
103 Scott Stallings 58 496 95
104 David Lingmerth 58 489 97
105 JJ Spaun 44 486 103
106 Scott Brown 57 478 100
107 Haotong Li 48 477 104
108 Robert Garrigus 50 475 105
109 Victor Dubuisson 32 475 106
110 Billy Horschel 51 473 101
111 Joost Luiten 52 467 109
112 Rafael Campos 10 465 113
113 Alexander Levy 45 457 115
114 Austin Cook 19 456 117
115 Aaron Wise 23 454 114
116 Vaughn Taylor 55 451 116
117 Si Woo Kim 60 450 108
118 Rory Sabbatini 48 449 119
119 Nick Taylor 57 447 112
120 Andrew Landry 30 446 118
121 Nick Watney 32 434 120
122 Harris English 58 433 129
123 Wesley Bryan 42 430 122
124 Andy Sullivan 55 426 124
125 Aaron Baddeley 50 426 121
126 Dylan Frittelli 44 421 126
127 Ben Martin 57 414 123
128 Chad Campbell 56 414 127
129 Danny Lee 66 412 125
130 Thorbjorn Olesen 53 407 130
131 John Huh 56 407 136
132 Kelly Kraft 56 405 131
133 Kevin Tway 44 401 128
134 Shubhankar Sharma 19 398 133
135 Michael Thompson 43 394 134
136 Sam Saunders 53 389 132
137 Dominic Bozzelli 35 387 135
138 Miguel Angel Jimenez 17 385 137
139 Hideto Tanihara 32 384 139
140 Jim Herman 50 380 140
141 Tom Hoge 54 379 153
142 CT Pan 47 378 141
143 Mackenzie Hughes 46 375 138
144 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 373 143
145 Seung-yul Noh 48 371 147
146 Brandon Hagy 32 371 146
147 Jorge Campillo 52 371 145
148 Andrew Johnston 47 370 144
149 Fabrizio Zanotti 48 367 148
150 Ryan Blaum 44 360 151
151 Morgan Hoffmann 54 359 152
152 Brian Stuard 60 354 160
153 Paul Dunne 50 353 157
154 Talor Gooch 18 352 189
155 Richard Sterne 45 352 155
156 Blayne Barber 48 351 159
157 David Hearn 57 351 154
158 Derek Fathauer 56 350 158
159 Tyrone van Aswegen 63 350 149
160 Beau Hossler 24 350 142
161 Alexander Bjork 38 347 163
162 Eddie Pepperell 45 346 164
163 Whee Kim 59 346 150
164 Martin Flores 42 345 162
165 Chris Wood 54 344 165
166 Harold Varner 60 344 161
167 David Horsey 48 344 167
168 Nicolas Colsaerts 54 343 166
169 Trey Mullinax 43 341 170
170 Henrik Norlander 26 340 175
171 Daisuke Kataoka 11 339 171
172 Alex Cejka 58 338 156
173 Michael Kim 55 338 172
174 Daniel Summerhays 55 338 169
175 Pablo Larrazabal 51 338 173
176 Robert Streb 58 330 168
177 Roberto Castro 44 328 174
178 Richie Ramsay 51 327 177
179 Geoff Ogilvy 47 325 178
180 George Coetzee 57 324 181
181 Ryan Fox 42 320 182
182 Johnson Wagner 53 319 180
183 Corey Conners 17 319 184
184 JT Poston 42 317 183
185 Ted Potter 24 317 176
186 David Lipsky 54 315 185
187 Chris Stroud 53 313 186
188 Luke Donald 50 309 179
189 Abraham Ancer 31 307 190
190 Julian Suri 23 306 187
191 Jeunghun Wang 55 301 191
192 Martin Pillar 8 296
193 Padraig Harrington 47 296 188
194 Seamus Power 43 295 192
195 Chris Paisley 54 291 194
196 Dean Burmester 43 291 195
197 Jaco van Zyl 34 285 197
198 Billy Hurley 53 282 193
199 Ryan Armour 40 276 196
200 Retief Goosen 41 274 198
201 Brice Garnett 30 271 203
202 Benjamin Hebert 49 270 200
203 Matthew Southgate 57 270 202
204 John Senden 34 266 199
205 Andres Gonzales 49 266 204
206 Ricky Barnes 62 263 205
207 Kyung-tae Kim 19 263 207
208 Stephen Gallacher 45 259 211
209 Richard Bland 50 258 210
210 Cameron Percy 45 258 212
211 Peter Hanson 36 258 213
212 Tim Wilkinson 46 257 209
213 Smylie Kaufman 56 256 206
214 Camilo Villegas 57 254 208
215 Matthieu Pavon 37 253 215
216 Tyler Duncan 18 252 201
217 Jonas Blixt 49 252 216
218 Ryo Ishikawa 28 252 214
219 Nacho Elvira 55 251 218
220 Tom Lovelady 16 250 220
221 Troy Merritt 62 248 219
222 Julian Etulain 29 247 222
223 Adrian Otaegui 54 247 223
224 Thongchai Jaidee 53 246 221
225 Scott Jamieson 53 245 225
226 Rob Oppenheim 37 243 227
227 Scott Hend 60 243 228
228 Rikard Karlberg 36 242 224
229 Martin Piller 27 241 226
230 Curtis Luck 25 241 217
231 Matt Jones 54 240 229
232 Cameron Tringale 59 239 230
233 Alejandro Canizares 43 238 231
234 Xin-jun Zhang 16 238 232
235 Anthony Wall 39 236 234
236 Bradley Dredge 45 235 233
237 Callum Shinkwin 43 233 235
238 JJ Henry 55 232 239
239 Ashun Wu 47 231 237
240 Benjamin Silverman 17 230 236
241 Matt Wallace 33 230 238
242 Richy Werenski 42 228 241
243 Chase Koepka 13 228 244
244 Ben Crane 52 226 242
245 Adam Bland 12 226 243
246 Joakim Lagergren 49 225 245
247 Thomas Detry 38 224 247
248 Keith Mitchell 18 224 249
249 Lanto Griffin 14 224 250
250 Kyle Reifers 57 224 240
251 Shawn Stefani 58 223 246
252 Robert Rock 51 222 248
253 Tag Ridings 27 220 253
254 Gregory Bourdy 57 219 251
255 Mikko Ilonen 45 219 252
256 Florian Fritsch 31 216 255
257 Jonathan Byrd 26 215 259
258 Zac Blair 63 215 257
259 Robby Shelton 12 214 258
260 Graeme Storm 52 212 260
261 Renato Paratore 58 208 263
262 Will MacKenzie 35 207 261
263 David Toms 16 204 256
264 Darren Fichardt 42 204 264
265 Maximilian Kieffer 47 204 265
266 Adam Schenk 19 203 266
267 Chris Hanson 51 203 267
268 John Peterson 23 202 270
269 Sam Horsfield 20 202 474
270 Marc Warren 54 200 268
271 Yuta Ikeda 20 200 254
272 Chad Collins 46 199 269
273 Andrew Dodt 45 199 273
274 Michael Putnam 12 199 277
275 Thomas Aiken 50 198 271
276 David Drysdale 57 197 274
277 Vijay Singh 39 196 262
278 Spencer Levin 54 195 272
279 Jordan Smith 23 194 279
280 Austin Connelly 25 194 281
281 Joel Dahmen 31 194 280
282 Nino Bertasio 58 194 275
283 Boo Weekley 42 191 276
284 Scott Langley 24 191 278
285 Paul Waring 36 191 286
286 Mikko Korhonen 44 191 285
287 Poom Saksansin 17 191 283
288 Jonathan Randolph 40 190 289
289 Sebastian Munoz 24 190 290
290 Fabian Gomez 50 190 282
291 Romain Wattel 50 189 287
292 Marcus Kinhult 17 189 291
293 Young-han Song 14 188 288
294 Jason Scrivener 52 186 292
295 Oliver Fisher 55 184 296
296 Cody Gribble 42 183 284
297 KJ Choi 46 183 294
298 Bronson Burgoon 29 183 293
299 Rod Pampling 49 182 300
300 Wade Ormsby 38 182 298
301 Jamie Donaldson 49 181 295
302 Haydn Porteous 61 180 299
303 Ricardo Gouveia 55 178 303
304 Nicholas Lindheim 39 177 302
305 Greg Owen 39 176 311
306 James Morrison 55 175 304
307 Stephan Jaeger 22 175 306
308 Matteo Manassero 52 175 307
309 Khalin Joshi 8 174 309
310 Andrew Putnam 17 173 310
311 Gregory Havret 55 172 314
312 Danny Willett 46 171 297
313 Bryce Molder 41 170 301
314 Steve Wheatcroft 48 170 313
315 Freddie Jacobson 23 170 312
316 DA Points 48 168 308
317 Davis Love 27 168 305
318 David Bransdon 8 165 315
319 Alex Prugh 16 164 316
320 Aaron Rai 23 162 317
321 Angel Cabrera 34 160 319
322 Andrea Pavan 12 159 320
323 Paul Peterson 49 159 321
324 Joachim B Hansen 20 159 323
325 Julien Quesne 44 159 318
326 Rick Lamb 32 156 326
327 Lee Slattery 51 156 324
328 Andres Romero 36 155 327
329 Lucas Bjerregaard 56 155 325
330 Peter Malnati 61 154 328
331 Sam Brazel 39 153 333
332 Lucas Herbert 12 152 335
333 Robert Karlsson 45 152 330
334 Michael Johnson 10 152 331
335 Anders Hansen 15 152 329
336 Marcus Fraser 43 151 332
337 Carlos Ortiz 27 151 337
338 JC Ritchie 9 151 336
339 Ryan Brehm 32 150 338
340 Greg Chalmers 52 149 340
341 Sean Crocker 12 149 341
342 Tom Gillis 8 148 347
343 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 33 148 342
344 Maverick McNealy 9 146 344
345 Sangmoon Bae 12 146 322
346 Juvic Pagunsan 9 146 345
347 Rhein Gibson 23 143 349
348 Trevor Fisher 24 143 350
349 Brett Stegmaier 55 143 346
350 Wes Roach 20 142 343
351 Ashley Chesters 33 141 351
352 Jose-Filipe Lima 30 138 352
353 Hunter Mahan 53 138 348
354 Colt Knost 28 138 339
355 Lasse Jensen 52 137 354
356 Yusaku Miyazato 14 136 353
357 Satoshi Kodaira 13 136 334
358 Brandon Stone 48 135 356
359 Connor Syme 13 135 355
360 Tapio Pulkkanen 8 134 357
361 Gavin Green 13 134 358
362 Hennie Otto 21 132 359
363 Panuphol Pittayarat 17 132 362
364 Will Wilcox 29 132 360
365 Brian Campbell 27 132 364
366 Sebastian Heisele 25 131 361
367 Jake McLeod 8 131 363
368 Johan Carlsson 46 130 365
369 Marcel Siem 49 130 367
370 Bernd Ritthammer 30 130 368
371 Romain Langasque 36 129 369
372 Raphael Jacquelin 51 128 370
373 Brett Drewitt 27 128 371
374 Jordan Zunic 13 128 372
375 Nate Lashley 14 127 375
376 Prayad Marksaeng 9 127 374
377 Steve Marino 31 126 366
378 Charlie Ford 13 126 377
379 Phachara Khongwatmai 37 125 379
380 Ryan Ruffels 12 125 373
381 Ockie Strydom 9 124 380
382 Bill Lunde 11 124 383
383 Felipe Aguilar 49 124 378
384 Roberto Diaz 20 123 382
385 Erik Van Rooyen 15 123 381
386 Brett Coletta 10 123 387
387 Joel Stalter 28 123 384
388 Julien Guerrier 14 122 385
389 Jon Curran 40 121 376
390 Richard Lee 11 119 388
391 Thomas Bjorn 36 119 389
392 Kristoffer Broberg 27 118 393
393 Justin Hicks 12 117 386
394 Jacques Blaauw 16 117 396
395 YE Yang 30 117 390
396 Jeff Winther 37 117 394
397 Justin Walters 53 117 392
398 Magnus A Carlsson 40 116 391
399 Shiv Kapur 26 116 397
400 Clement Sordet 13 115 395
More | Less

A look at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

March 13, 2018 Thomas Hawley

For better or worse, the name Tiger Woods is just another data point among millions on the golf ratings/ golf picks hard drive. Woods’ Hawley Ratings number reflects what he’s done in the last two calendar years, his course fit number reflects just the current PGA Tour season, and so forth. The fact that he’s come back from the near-dead, not to mention the fact that he nearly tripled the TV audience last weekend, is lost on the computer. Thus Tiger is the computer’s no. 20 pick in this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, behind top pick Jason Day. Woods is right between Brandt Snedeker (50-1) and Adam Scott (55-1) on the Palmer Invitational odds per the Hawley computer, whereas you will Read more

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

March 12, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Jason Day
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Jason Day 16.8 22
2 Justin Rose 24.5 3
3 Rickie Fowler 28.1 14
4 Louis Oosthuizen 28.1 106
5 Hideki Matsuyama 31.9 49
6 Henrik Stenson 32.8 4
7 Alex Noren 35.2 36
8 Brian Harman 37.8 54
9 Marc Leishman 38.3 7
10 Tyrrell Hatton 38.3 69
11 Tommy Fleetwood 39.2 26
12 Zach Johnson 39.3 26
13 Kevin Chappell 41.0 7
14 Rory McIlroy 41.6 1
15 Pat Perez 42.1 DNP
16 Francesco Molinari 42.2 26
17 Jason Kokrak 43.0 87
18 Brandt Snedeker 43.2 97
19 Tiger Woods 44.0 5
20 Adam Scott 44.0 41
21 Luke List 45.0 7
22 Patrick Reed 46.2 7
23 James Hahn 47.4 58
24 Kevin Na 47.7 36
25 Bubba Watson 48.1 66
26 Jamie Lovemark 48.1 41
27 Emiliano Grillo 48.6 26
28 Sam Burns 50.4 49
29 Cameron Smith 50.4 103
30 Martin Laird 50.6 26
31 Charles Howell 51.7 14
32 Lucas Glover 52.0 49
33 Ryan Moore 52.1 5
34 Matthew Fitzpatrick 52.3 87
35 Byeong Hun An 52.4 14
36 Scott Piercy 52.6 87
37 Charley Hoffman 52.8 14
38 Keegan Bradley 53.0 26
39 Kevin Streelman 53.3 41
40 Scott Stallings 53.7 78
41 Kevin Kisner 54.1 106
42 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 54.3 87
43 Ian Poulter 54.5 41
44 Kyle Stanley 56.3 14
45 Russell Knox 56.7 73
46 Patton Kizzire 57.4 87
47 Charl Schwartzel 57.7 97
48 Jimmy Walker 57.8 73
49 William McGirt 58.0 26
50 Stewart Cink 58.1 58
51 Chris Kirk 58.4 13
52 Chesson Hadley 58.4 49
53 Bud Cauley 58.5 14
54 Brandon Harkins 58.9 36
55 Ollie Schniederjans 59.6 41
56 Shane Lowry 59.7 87
57 Matt Every 60.1 106
58 Vaughn Taylor 60.2 DNP
59 Peter Uihlein 60.3 66
60 Ben Martin 60.9 87
61 Bryson DeChambeau 61.0 2
62 Patrick Rodgers 61.2 7
63 Anirban Lahiri 61.2 75
64 Hudson Swafford 61.5 75
65 JB Holmes 61.7 41
66 Sean O’Hair 62.1 7
67 Aaron Baddeley 62.8 DNP
68 Sam Saunders 63.3 78
69 Haotong Li 63.3 54
70 Graeme McDowell 63.3 22
71 John Huh 63.4 26
72 Derek Fathauer 63.6 DNP
73 Austin Cook 63.6 36
74 Brian Gay 64.0 22
75 Grayson Murray 64.7 14
76 Tyrone van Aswegen 64.8 72
77 JJ Spaun 64.9 DNP
78 Aaron Wise 65.0 41
79 Sung Kang 65.1 58
80 Kelly Kraft 65.2 DNP
81 Nick Taylor 65.5 78
82 Scott Brown 65.6 103
83 David Lingmerth 65.6 64
84 Beau Hossler 66.7 66
85 Danny Lee 66.9 97
86 Billy Horschel 66.9 54
87 Aj McInerney 67.0 78
88 CT Pan 67.0 41
89 Harris English 67.6 22
90 Tom Hoge 67.7 26
91 Ted Potter 67.8 117
92 Ryan Armour 67.9 77
93 Kevin Tway 68.1 58
94 Chris Stroud 68.4 DNP
95 Si Woo Kim 68.8 111
96 Whee Kim 69.2 97
97 Abraham Ancer 69.2 DNP
98 Alex Cejka 69.6 87
99 Mackenzie Hughes 69.6 54
100 Brian Stuard 69.7 36
101 Robert Streb 70.0 78
102 Talor Gooch 70.2 26
103 Luke Donald 70.7 115
104 Camilo Villegas 70.8 111
105 JT Poston 71.0 DNP
106 Padraig Harrington 71.3 78
107 Tyler Duncan 71.4 78
108 Martin Pillar 72.0 113
109 Smylie Kaufman 72.0 119
110 Sangmoon Bae 72.3 106
111 Billy Hurley 72.4 78
112 Curtis Luck 72.5 58
113 Yuta Ikeda 72.6 87
114 Vijay Singh 72.8 106
115 Benjamin Silverman 72.9 DNP
116 Davis Love 72.9 58
117 Hunter Mahan 73.5 78
118 Cody Gribble 74.0 103
119 Ernie Els 74.3 49
120 DA Points 74.5 97
121 Sam Horsfield 75.1 14
122 Stuart Appleby 75.6 97
123 Satoshi Kodaira 75.6 113
124 Danny Willett 75.7 WD
125 Tim Herron 81.4 87
126 Robert Gamez 85.6 116
127 Paul Goydos 85.6 69
128 Donny Lee 85.6 117
129 Collin Morikawa 85.6 64
130 Doc Redman 85.6 71
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 211. The average is 213. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Mar. 11, 2018)

March 12, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson has completed a year on top in his 52nd straight week at no. 1.
# Thru Mar. 11, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Dustin Johnson 47 1763 1
2 Paul Casey 48 1727 2
3 Jordan Spieth 51 1552 3
4 Justin Thomas 53 1509 4
5 Jason Day 43 1444 5
6 Rickie Fowler 51 1437 6
7 Jon Rahm 43 1433 7
8 Patrick Cantlay 19 1403 8
9 Phil Mickelson 49 1392 9
10 Brooks Koepka 44 1326 10
11 Justin Rose 47 1310 13
12 Hideki Matsuyama 46 1288 12
13 Rory McIlroy 42 1236 11
14 Sergio Garcia 45 1140 22
15 Matt Kuchar 62 1137 14
16 Pat Perez 36 1114 16
17 Louis Oosthuizen 44 1102 18
18 Henrik Stenson 46 1094 15
19 Marc Leishman 54 1092 17
20 Adam Scott 43 1083 24
21 Brian Harman 58 1077 21
22 Tyrrell Hatton 49 1071 20
23 Francesco Molinari 49 1069 23
24 Webb Simpson 51 1053 27
25 Tony Finau 58 1048 19
26 Alex Noren 49 1044 25
27 Patrick Reed 69 1022 29
28 Brendan Steele 49 1020 26
29 Rafa Cabrera Bello 61 1001 28
30 Steve Stricker 28 1001 32
31 Tiger Woods 8 964
32 Tommy Fleetwood 55 941 30
33 Daniel Berger 53 905 35
34 Brandt Snedeker 46 901 33
35 Gary Woodland 57 901 31
36 Kevin Chappell 56 895 37
37 Adam Hadwin 55 893 41
38 Kevin Kisner 57 890 38
39 Chez Reavie 56 879 34
40 Branden Grace 56 879 45
41 Ryan Moore 48 868 36
42 Charles Howell 48 863 39
43 Zach Johnson 51 863 44
44 Xander Schauffele 39 846 43
45 Charley Hoffman 61 831 40
46 Jason Dufner 49 817 42
47 Kevin Na 49 809 47
48 Emiliano Grillo 55 804 46
49 Kyle Stanley 55 796 49
50 Bill Haas 50 785 48
51 Russell Henley 51 765 51
52 Keegan Bradley 56 760 52
53 James Hahn 54 758 55
54 Bubba Watson 47 751 56
55 Lucas Glover 48 750 50
56 Luke List 60 747 60
57 Jason Kokrak 55 740 68
58 Charl Schwartzel 47 731 53
59 Martin Laird 48 730 54
60 Cameron Smith 54 730 57
61 Thomas Pieters 49 720 59
62 Ryan Palmer 41 711 61
63 Scott Piercy 46 700 62
64 Jamie Lovemark 56 699 72
65 Graham DeLaet 40 696 64
66 Matthew Fitzpatrick 57 683 63
67 Brandon Harkins 17 675 58
68 Martin Kaymer 50 675 71
69 Ross Fisher 48 671 65
70 Kevin Streelman 53 668 66
71 Byeong Hun An 55 665 67
72 Stewart Cink 46 663 74
73 Bud Cauley 49 662 69
74 Bernd Wiesberger 56 661 73
75 Ian Poulter 48 657 70
76 Jhonattan Vegas 61 648 77
77 Russell Knox 61 645 81
78 Jimmy Walker 51 641 78
79 Ollie Schniederjans 43 641 75
80 JB Holmes 52 634 76
81 William McGirt 56 624 82
82 Anirban Lahiri 54 612 79
83 Shane Lowry 53 609 80
84 Jim Furyk 35 593 101
85 Sean O’Hair 54 573 92
86 Chris Kirk 60 566 83
87 Jordan L Smith 13 564 84
88 Lee Westwood 48 545 86
89 Peter Uihlein 43 534 89
90 Patton Kizzire 54 532 88
91 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 56 527 90
92 Chesson Hadley 43 527 85
93 Hudson Swafford 55 522 87
94 Soren Kjeldsen 54 521 91
95 Scott Stallings 57 511 99
96 Sung Kang 62 508 94
97 David Lingmerth 58 505 93
98 Jerry Kelly 25 499 98
99 Graeme McDowell 58 495 100
100 Scott Brown 57 494 95
101 Billy Horschel 51 489 96
102 Brian Gay 48 488 97
103 JJ Spaun 44 486 102
104 Haotong Li 47 486 105
105 Robert Garrigus 50 477 110
106 Victor Dubuisson 32 472 111
107 Bryson DeChambeau 57 471 103
108 Si Woo Kim 60 467 106
109 Joost Luiten 53 467 112
110 Patrick Rodgers 58 466 108
111 Grayson Murray 42 463 107
112 Nick Taylor 56 461 109
113 Rafael Campos 10 460 113
114 Aaron Wise 22 456 104
115 Alexander Levy 45 456 114
116 Vaughn Taylor 56 450 115
117 Austin Cook 18 447 116
118 Andrew Landry 30 446 118
119 Rory Sabbatini 49 446 150
120 Nick Watney 32 432 117
121 Aaron Baddeley 51 428 119
122 Wesley Bryan 42 427 123
123 Ben Martin 57 427 121
124 Andy Sullivan 56 427 122
125 Danny Lee 66 423 120
126 Dylan Frittelli 44 421 125
127 Chad Campbell 57 413 129
128 Kevin Tway 43 411 124
129 Harris English 58 407 126
130 Thorbjorn Olesen 53 406 127
131 Kelly Kraft 56 402 134
132 Sam Saunders 53 401 128
133 Shubhankar Sharma 20 398 136
134 Michael Thompson 43 393 133
135 Dominic Bozzelli 35 386 141
136 John Huh 56 386 130
137 Miguel Angel Jimenez 17 385 137
138 Mackenzie Hughes 45 383 131
139 Hideto Tanihara 32 382 138
140 Jim Herman 51 380 139
141 CT Pan 46 376 135
142 Beau Hossler 23 372 132
143 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 372 140
144 Andrew Johnston 47 372 149
145 Jorge Campillo 53 371 142
146 Brandon Hagy 32 369 145
147 Seung-yul Noh 48 369 146
148 Fabrizio Zanotti 48 368 144
149 Tyrone van Aswegen 63 360 168
150 Whee Kim 58 359 147
151 Ryan Blaum 44 359 184
152 Morgan Hoffmann 55 358 156
153 Tom Hoge 53 355 143
154 David Hearn 58 355 154
155 Richard Sterne 45 354 157
156 Alex Cejka 57 353 160
157 Paul Dunne 51 353 161
158 Derek Fathauer 57 352 148
159 Blayne Barber 49 350 189
160 Brian Stuard 59 348 152
161 Harold Varner 61 348 151
162 Martin Flores 42 346 153
163 Alexander Bjork 38 346 164
164 Eddie Pepperell 45 345 165
165 Chris Wood 55 345 158
166 Nicolas Colsaerts 54 344 167
167 David Horsey 48 344 166
168 Robert Streb 58 343 155
169 Daniel Summerhays 56 342 163
170 Trey Mullinax 43 339 204
171 Daisuke Kataoka 11 339 170
172 Michael Kim 55 338 162
173 Pablo Larrazabal 52 336 175
174 Roberto Castro 45 335 169
175 Henrik Norlander 26 335 173
176 Ted Potter 23 334 159
177 Richie Ramsay 51 326 178
178 Geoff Ogilvy 47 325 171
179 Luke Donald 50 323 172
180 Johnson Wagner 53 323 176
181 George Coetzee 57 323 179
182 Ryan Fox 42 318 182
183 JT Poston 42 317 181
184 Corey Conners 17 317 260
185 David Lipsky 55 314 185
186 Chris Stroud 53 313 183
187 Julian Suri 23 308 174
188 Padraig Harrington 47 308 180
189 Talor Gooch 17 305 177
190 Abraham Ancer 31 304 239
191 Jeunghun Wang 56 299 186
192 Seamus Power 43 295 187
193 Billy Hurley 53 293 188
194 Chris Paisley 55 291 192
195 Dean Burmester 43 290 193
196 Ryan Armour 39 287 195
197 Jaco van Zyl 34 285 194
198 Retief Goosen 42 276 190
199 John Senden 34 275 196
200 Benjamin Hebert 49 271 199
201 Tyler Duncan 17 271 191
202 Matthew Southgate 58 270 198
203 Brice Garnett 30 270 226
204 Andres Gonzales 49 267 203
205 Ricky Barnes 62 267 200
206 Smylie Kaufman 56 266 197
207 Kyung-tae Kim 19 261 207
208 Camilo Villegas 57 261 201
209 Tim Wilkinson 46 260 205
210 Richard Bland 50 259 206
211 Stephen Gallacher 45 259 220
212 Cameron Percy 45 257 211
213 Peter Hanson 36 257 210
214 Ryo Ishikawa 28 253 215
215 Matthieu Pavon 37 253 214
216 Jonas Blixt 50 252 217
217 Curtis Luck 24 251 219
218 Nacho Elvira 56 251 213
219 Troy Merritt 63 249 208
220 Tom Lovelady 16 249 202
221 Thongchai Jaidee 53 247 209
222 Julian Etulain 29 247 222
223 Adrian Otaegui 55 246 225
224 Rikard Karlberg 36 244 224
225 Scott Jamieson 54 244 218
226 Martin Piller 27 244 223
227 Rob Oppenheim 38 243 227
228 Scott Hend 61 243 216
229 Matt Jones 55 239 230
230 Cameron Tringale 60 239 228
231 Alejandro Canizares 44 238 229
232 Xin-jun Zhang 16 237 212
233 Bradley Dredge 45 235 234
234 Anthony Wall 39 234 237
235 Callum Shinkwin 43 234 236
236 Benjamin Silverman 17 232 221
237 Ashun Wu 47 231 231
238 Matt Wallace 33 231 255
239 JJ Henry 56 230 233
240 Kyle Reifers 58 229 235
241 Richy Werenski 42 229 232
242 Ben Crane 52 227 238
243 Adam Bland 12 226 242
244 Chase Koepka 13 226 243
245 Joakim Lagergren 49 225 241
246 Shawn Stefani 58 225 240
247 Thomas Detry 38 225 246
248 Robert Rock 51 223 254
249 Keith Mitchell 18 222 249
250 Lanto Griffin 14 222 247
251 Gregory Bourdy 57 222 245
252 Mikko Ilonen 45 220 248
253 Tag Ridings 27 219 251
254 Yuta Ikeda 19 218 250
255 Florian Fritsch 31 217 253
256 David Toms 16 216 244
257 Zac Blair 64 214 259
258 Robby Shelton 12 213 258
259 Jonathan Byrd 26 213 261
260 Graeme Storm 52 212 252
261 Will MacKenzie 35 209 263
262 Vijay Singh 39 208 266
263 Renato Paratore 59 207 257
264 Darren Fichardt 42 205 268
265 Maximilian Kieffer 48 204 270
266 Adam Schenk 19 203 256
267 Chris Hanson 51 203 262
268 Marc Warren 55 202 265
269 Chad Collins 46 202 269
270 John Peterson 23 200 277
271 Thomas Aiken 50 199 276
272 Spencer Levin 55 197 275
273 Andrew Dodt 45 197 272
274 David Drysdale 57 196 274
275 Nino Bertasio 58 195 271
276 Boo Weekley 43 195 278
277 Michael Putnam 12 195 287
278 Scott Langley 24 194 279
279 Jordan Smith 23 194 282
280 Joel Dahmen 31 194 281
281 Austin Connelly 25 193 283
282 Fabian Gomez 51 192 273
283 Poom Saksansin 17 192 264
284 Cody Gribble 41 191 285
285 Mikko Korhonen 45 191 289
286 Paul Waring 36 191 286
287 Romain Wattel 51 191 284
288 Young-han Song 14 190 290
289 Jonathan Randolph 40 189 280
290 Sebastian Munoz 24 189 297
291 Marcus Kinhult 17 187 267
292 Jason Scrivener 53 185 294
293 Bronson Burgoon 29 184 301
294 KJ Choi 47 184 300
295 Jamie Donaldson 49 184 293
296 Oliver Fisher 56 183 292
297 Danny Willett 45 182 295
298 Wade Ormsby 39 182 306
299 Haydn Porteous 61 181 303
300 Rod Pampling 49 181 302
301 Bryce Molder 42 179 296
302 Nicholas Lindheim 39 178 299
303 Ricardo Gouveia 56 178 311
304 James Morrison 55 176 313
305 Davis Love 27 176 288
306 Stephan Jaeger 22 176 309
307 Matteo Manassero 52 175 304
308 DA Points 47 174 305
309 Khalin Joshi 9 174 291
310 Andrew Putnam 17 174 298
311 Greg Owen 40 174 312
312 Freddie Jacobson 24 173 308
313 Steve Wheatcroft 48 172 310
314 Gregory Havret 56 171 315
315 David Bransdon 8 163 317
316 Alex Prugh 16 163 318
317 Aaron Rai 23 163 343
318 Julien Quesne 45 160 319
319 Angel Cabrera 35 159 323
320 Andrea Pavan 12 159 321
321 Paul Peterson 50 159 326
322 Sangmoon Bae 11 159 307
323 Joachim B Hansen 21 157 329
324 Lee Slattery 52 156 325
325 Lucas Bjerregaard 56 155 324
326 Rick Lamb 32 155 327
327 Andres Romero 36 155 330
328 Peter Malnati 62 154 322
329 Anders Hansen 15 153 332
330 Robert Karlsson 45 153 333
331 Michael Johnson 10 153 331
332 Marcus Fraser 44 152 320
333 Sam Brazel 40 152 336
334 Satoshi Kodaira 12 152 335
335 Lucas Herbert 12 151 337
336 JC Ritchie 9 151 334
337 Carlos Ortiz 27 149 342
338 Ryan Brehm 32 149 340
339 Colt Knost 29 149 314
340 Greg Chalmers 52 149 328
341 Sean Crocker 12 148 316
342 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 33 147 341
343 Wes Roach 20 145 339
344 Maverick McNealy 10 145 344
345 Juvic Pagunsan 9 144 347
346 Brett Stegmaier 56 144 345
347 Tom Gillis 8 144 353
348 Hunter Mahan 53 144 346
349 Rhein Gibson 23 142 349
350 Trevor Fisher 25 142 350
351 Ashley Chesters 33 141 352
352 Jose-Filipe Lima 30 139 351
353 Yusaku Miyazato 14 138 354
354 Lasse Jensen 52 137 348
355 Connor Syme 13 137 355
356 Brandon Stone 48 136 356
357 Tapio Pulkkanen 8 134 361
358 Gavin Green 13 133 399
359 Hennie Otto 21 132 363
360 Will Wilcox 30 132 364
361 Sebastian Heisele 25 131 365
362 Panuphol Pittayarat 18 131 403
363 Jake McLeod 8 131 367
364 Brian Campbell 27 130 372
365 Johan Carlsson 46 130 366
366 Steve Marino 31 130 360
367 Marcel Siem 50 130 357
368 Bernd Ritthammer 30 130 369
369 Romain Langasque 36 129 373
370 Raphael Jacquelin 52 129 362
371 Brett Drewitt 27 128 374
372 Jordan Zunic 13 128 375
373 Ryan Ruffels 13 127 371
374 Prayad Marksaeng 10 127 338
375 Nate Lashley 14 127 378
376 Jon Curran 41 126 368
377 Charlie Ford 13 126 379
378 Felipe Aguilar 49 125 377
379 Phachara Khongwatmai 37 125 370
380 Ockie Strydom 9 124 380
381 Erik Van Rooyen 15 123 358
382 Roberto Diaz 20 123 382
383 Bill Lunde 11 123 384
384 Joel Stalter 28 123 381
385 Julien Guerrier 14 123 359
386 Justin Hicks 12 123 376
387 Brett Coletta 10 122 386
388 Richard Lee 11 120 385
389 Thomas Bjorn 36 119 387
390 YE Yang 30 117 389
391 Magnus A Carlsson 40 117 388
392 Justin Walters 53 117 390
393 Kristoffer Broberg 27 116 395
394 Jeff Winther 38 116 391
395 Clement Sordet 13 116 460
396 Jacques Blaauw 16 116 393
397 Shiv Kapur 27 116 383
398 Nicolas Geyger 8 115 394
399 Stuart Appleby 42 113 392
400 Stephen Leaney 8 112 397
More | Less

A look at the Valspar Championship

March 7, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Jordan Spieth has commented numerous times this year about working on his putting, and he’s not kidding. For the season ending with the 2017 Tour Championship, he ranked second on the PGA Tour in putts per green-in-regulation and 42nd in shots gained putting. This season’s stats show him 109th in shots per GIR and 163rd in shots gained putting. That latter stat is in the bottom quarter of PGA pros. Why then, you might ask, does Spieth show up first on the list of picks for this week’s Valspar Championship? The answer is that the rest of his game has been good enough to keep him in contention. He was in the top 15 in last week’s WGC-Mexico event, in the top 10 at the Genesis, and in the top 20 at Pebble Beach. He’s in the top 20 Read more

Valspar Championship

March 5, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,
Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Jordan Spieth 12.4 92
2 Paul Casey 15.6 1
3 Henrik Stenson 26.9 107
4 Louis Oosthuizen 33.2 16
5 Tony Finau 34.1 107
6 Ryan Moore 34.8 92
7 Chez Reavie 35.6 79
8 Rory McIlroy 35.7 92
9 Matt Kuchar 36.5 40
10 Justin Rose 36.8 5
11 Steve Stricker 37.1 12
12 Patrick Reed 38.8 2
13 Webb Simpson 40.8 8
14 Charles Howell 41.1 40
15 Kevin Na 42.2 DNP
16 Sergio Garcia 44.2 4
17 Jason Dufner 44.7 79
18 Jason Kokrak 44.9 8
19 Brandt Snedeker 44.9 31
20 Adam Hadwin 45.1 12
21 Charl Schwartzel 45.4 49
22 Gary Woodland 45.6 79
23 Luke List 45.7 16
24 Charley Hoffman 46.8 120
25 Zach Johnson 47.3 16
26 Cameron Smith 47.4 46
27 Kevin Streelman 47.6 92
28 Branden Grace 49.9 8
29 Byeong Hun An 50.5 79
30 Adam Scott 50.5 16
31 Matthew Fitzpatrick 51.0 107
32 Lucas Glover 51.4 74
33 Martin Laird 52.0 92
34 Bill Haas 52.1 49
35 Scott Stallings 52.4 31
36 Jamie Lovemark 52.9 16
37 Ian Poulter 53.6 114
38 Chesson Hadley 54.0 120
39 Keegan Bradley 54.3 31
40 Ross Fisher 54.8 120
41 Brandon Harkins 55.1 79
42 Jim Furyk 56.0 7
43 Kyle Stanley 56.1 DNP
44 Ryan Palmer 56.9 28
45 Bud Cauley 57.4 128
46 Brian Gay 57.7 92
47 Chris Kirk 57.9 49
48 Stewart Cink 58.3 31
49 Sam Saunders 58.4 49
50 Sam Burns 58.5 12
51 Russell Knox 58.8 16
52 Bryson DeChambeau 59.1 WD
53 Ollie Schniederjans 59.5 49
54 Tiger Woods 59.5 2
55 John Huh 59.7 107
56 Shane Lowry 59.7 49
57 Jimmy Walker 60.1 28
58 Peter Uihlein 60.3 DNP
59 Rory Sabbatini 60.4 5
60 Vaughn Taylor 60.4 DNP
61 Patrick Rodgers 61.1 59
62 Robert Garrigus 61.7 31
63 JB Holmes 61.8 46
64 William McGirt 62.0 16
65 Harris English 62.2 120
66 Austin Cook 62.5 40
67 Nick Watney 62.9 59
68 Hudson Swafford 62.9 79
69 Derek Fathauer 63.0 135
70 Ben Martin 63.4 46
71 Aaron Baddeley 63.5 49
72 Grayson Murray 63.8 92
73 Aaron Wise 64.3 68
74 Luke Donald 64.3 64
75 Sung Kang 64.5 73
76 Martin Flores 64.5 77
77 Dominic Bozzelli 64.6 31
78 Nick Taylor 64.6 114
79 Scott Brown 65.0 64
80 Sean O’Hair 65.0 12
81 David Lingmerth 65.4 64
82 CT Pan 65.4 128
83 Danny Lee 65.5 128
84 Beau Hossler 65.7 92
85 Graeme McDowell 66.0 40
86 Chad Campbell 66.7 31
87 Kevin Tway 66.7 92
88 Retief Goosen 66.9 135
89 Andrew Landry 67.2 DNP
90 Ted Potter 67.3 79
91 Kelly Kraft 67.3 31
92 Billy Horschel 67.3 79
93 Tom Hoge 67.4 92
94 Tyrone van Aswegen 67.5 28
95 Troy Merritt 67.7 107
96 Harold Varner 67.7 78
97 Ryan Armour 68.4 40
98 Si Woo Kim 68.8 59
99 Alex Cejka 69.0 40
100 Seamus Power 69.0 120
101 Mackenzie Hughes 69.1 92
102 Whee Kim 69.2 49
103 Talor Gooch 69.4 120
104 Brian Stuard 69.4 79
105 Michael Kim 69.6 79
106 Robert Streb 69.6 120
107 Brice Garnett 69.9 31
108 Jonas Blixt 70.1 DNP
109 Padraig Harrington 70.2 114
110 Geoff Ogilvy 70.4 114
111 Tom Lovelady 70.5 128
112 Davis Love 70.7 135
113 Blayne Barber 70.9 16
114 Tyler Duncan 70.9 120
115 Martin Pillar 70.9 140
116 Ryan Blaum 70.9 16
117 JJ Henry 71.1 74
118 Camilo Villegas 71.2 114
119 Abraham Ancer 71.3 16
120 Benjamin Silverman 71.7 92
121 Smylie Kaufman 71.7 142
122 Rob Oppenheim 71.8 DNP
123 Richy Werenski 71.9 138
124 Sangmoon Bae 71.9 92
125 Greg Chalmers 72.0 107
126 Corey Conners 72.0 16
127 Billy Hurley 72.1 92
128 Shawn Stefani 72.1 DNP
129 Adam Schenk 72.3 59
130 Xin-jun Zhang 72.4 128
131 Andrew Putnam 72.4 92
132 Lanto Griffin 72.6 DNP
133 Peter Malnati 72.8 128
134 Bronson Burgoon 72.9 DNP
135 Nicholas Lindheim 73.4 140
136 Rod Pampling 73.6 59
137 Stephan Jaeger 73.7 49
138 Jonathan Randolph 73.8 79
139 Fabian Gomez 73.9 68
140 Colt Knost 74.2 142
141 Matt Every 74.5 68
142 DA Points 74.5 114
143 Ernie Els 76.1 64
144 Ze-cheng Dou 77.8 79
145 Jimmy Stanger 77.9 79
146 Bob Estes 83.7 49
147 Chris Couch 85.4 68
148 Dylan Meyer 85.6 74
149 Rod Perry 85.6 138
150 Ty Strafaci 85.6 128
Trey Mullinax late entry 11
TJ Vogel late entry 18
Sam Ryder late entry 72
Jack Maguire late entry 107
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 223. The average is 213. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Hero Indian Open

March 5, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Anirban Lahiri
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Anirban Lahiri 27.1 34
2 Emiliano Grillo 33.2 6
3 Shubhankar Sharma 53.7 7
4 Joost Luiten 58.9 9
5 Pablo Larrazabal 64.2 4
6 Chris Wood 64.2 48
7 Hideto Tanihara 65.1 12
8 Daisuke Kataoka 66.2 DNP
9 Andrew Johnston 66.8 2
10 Jeunghun Wang 67.4 40
11 Julian Suri 68.1 123
12 Marcus Kinhult 69.0 107
13 Scott Jamieson 70.4 68
14 Ashun Wu 71.5 53
15 Thongchai Jaidee 71.8 107
16 Stephen Gallacher 71.9 7
17 Paul Peterson 72.0 23
18 Scott Hend 72.9 123
19 Andrea Pavan 73.0 DNP
20 Khalin Joshi 73.1 40
21 Chris Hanson 73.1 94
22 Nacho Elvira 73.2 40
23 Gregory Havret 73.4 23
24 Poom Saksansin 73.6 114
25 Renato Paratore 73.7 87
26 Anthony Wall 73.7 25
27 Matt Wallace 74.0 1
28 Rashid Khan 74.3 114
29 Robert Rock 74.5 12
30 Sean Crocker 74.5 100
31 Graeme Storm 75.2 60
32 Nino Bertasio 75.2 87
33 Oliver Fisher 75.3 WD
34 Andrew Dodt 75.4 107
35 Prayad Marksaeng 75.4 68
36 Marc Warren 75.4 53
37 Matteo Manassero 75.7 57
38 Aaron Rai 75.7 9
39 Jason Scrivener 75.8 40
40 Wade Ormsby 75.9 25
41 Adilson da Silva 75.9 76
42 David Drysdale 76.1 82
43 Lasse Jensen 76.1 WD
44 Julien Guerrier 76.2 82
45 Angelo Que 76.3 64
46 Shiv Kapur 76.5 68
47 James Morrison 76.7 16
48 Ricardo Gouveia 76.7 16
49 Marcus Fraser 76.7 60
50 Jamie Donaldson 77.4 34
51 Erik Van Rooyen 77.7 76
52 Gavin Green 77.7 16
53 Jeff Winther 77.9 DNP
54 Carlos Pigem 78.0 68
55 Prom Meesawat 78.0 57
56 Phachara Khongwatmai 78.1 116
57 Arjun Atwal 78.1 68
58 Raphael Jacquelin 78.1 87
59 Scott Vincent 78.3 94
60 Panuphol Pittayarat 78.5 16
61 Marcel Siem 78.8 100
62 Danny Chia 78.9 DNP
63 Daniel Im 78.9 100
64 Ashley Chesters 79.0 30
65 Thomas Bjorn 79.1 34
66 Adrien Saddier 79.4 62
67 SSP Chawrasia 79.5 87
68 Jazz Janewattananond 79.6 76
69 Ben Leong 79.9 82
70 Edoardo Molinari 80.0 57
71 WC Liang 80.1 40
72 Gaganjeet Bhullar 80.3 100
73 Ryan Evans 80.3 34
74 Jbe Kruger 80.4 107
75 Steven Brown 80.4 16
76 Mark Foster 80.5 DNP
77 Jacques Kruyswijk 80.5 DNP
78 Scott Fernandez 80.5 34
79 Clement Sordet 80.6 12
80 Chiragh Kumar 80.7 DQ
81 Miguel Tabuena 80.8 76
82 S Chikarangappa 80.9 123
83 Sebastien Gros 81.1 25
84 Jin Choi 81.1 9
85 David Howell 81.1 87
86 Danthai Boonma 81.2 30
87 Soo-min Lee 81.5 53
88 Shih-chang Chan 81.5 25
89 Sam Walker 81.8 118
90 Pavit Tangkamolprasert 81.8 118
91 Johannes Veerman 81.8 130
92 Shaun Norris 81.9 67
93 Javier Colomo 82.0 94
94 Ajeetesh Sandhu 82.1 40
95 Mithun Perera 82.2 118
96 Matthias Schwab 82.3 4
97 Jyoti Randhawa 82.4 32
98 Siddikur Rahman 82.4 76
99 Jens Dantorp 82.5 16
100 Keith Horne 82.6 12
101 Rattanon Wannasrichan 82.7 DQ
102 Terry Pilkadaris 82.7 68
103 Shamim Khan 82.7 107
104 Yi Keun Chang 82.8 46
105 Nicholas Fung 82.9 48
106 Oliver Farr 82.9 68
107 Daniel Chopra 83.0 94
108 Suradit Yongcharoenchai 83.0 64
109 Jeev Milkha Singh 83.1 132
110 Kurt Kitayama 83.1 46
111 Tirawat Kaewsirbandit 83.1 76
112 Chien-yao Hung 83.2 100
113 Rak hyun Cho 83.3 DNP
114 Jarin Todd 83.3 25
115 Richard T Lee 83.4 WD
116 Pontus Widegren 83.4 DNP
117 Lionel Weber 83.5 66
118 Jason Norris 83.5 82
119 Arnond Vongvanij 83.9 68
120 Micah Lauren Shin 84.1 51
121 Mukesh Kumar 84.2 107
122 Natipong Srithong 84.3 34
123 Amardip Sinh Malik 84.3 WD
124 Darren Clarke 84.3 63
125 Josh Geary 84.6 DNP
126 Anura Rohana 84.8 116
127 Om Prakash Chouhan 84.9 WD
128 Shankar Das 85.0 WD
129 Feroz Ali Mollah 85.1 130
130 Vikrant Chopra 85.4 127
131 Honney Baisoya 85.5 100
132 Si-hwan Kim 85.5 3
133 M Dharma 85.5 WD
134 Ashok Kumar 85.5 94
135 Abhijit Singh Chadra 85.5 127
136 Kshitij Naveed Kaul 85.6 32
137 Kartik Sharma 85.6 129
138 Yashas Chandra 85.6 100
139 Dhruv Sheoran 85.6 87
140 David Gleeson 85.6 53
141 Udayan Mane 85.6 52
142 Akshay Sharma 85.6 WD
143 Syed Saqib Ahmed 85.6 DNP
144 Karandeep Kochhar 85.6 48
145 Harendra P Gupta 85.6 87
146 Aman Raj 85.6 82
147 Viraj Madappa 85.6 94
148 Manu Gandas 85.6 118
149 Sanjeev Kumar 85.6 WD
150 Veer Ahlawat 85.6 107
Casey O’Toole late entry 22
Gaurav Pratap Singh late entry 120
Saqib Ahmed Syed late entry 126
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 190. The average is 213. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Mar. 4, 2018)

March 5, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson is nearing a year on top with 51 straight weeks at no. 1.
# Thru Mar. 4, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Dustin Johnson 47 1769 1
2 Paul Casey 47 1670 2
3 Jordan Spieth 51 1610 3
4 Justin Thomas 54 1507 6
5 Jason Day 43 1459 4
6 Rickie Fowler 51 1432 5
7 Jon Rahm 43 1431 8
8 Patrick Cantlay 19 1403 7
9 Phil Mickelson 49 1389 9
10 Brooks Koepka 44 1326 10
11 Rory McIlroy 41 1297 11
12 Hideki Matsuyama 46 1291 12
13 Justin Rose 46 1258 13
14 Matt Kuchar 62 1162 14
15 Henrik Stenson 46 1146 15
16 Pat Perez 36 1115 16
17 Marc Leishman 54 1089 17
18 Louis Oosthuizen 44 1081 18
19 Tony Finau 58 1079 19
20 Tyrrell Hatton 49 1071 25
21 Brian Harman 59 1071 24
22 Sergio Garcia 44 1070 23
23 Francesco Molinari 50 1068 20
24 Adam Scott 42 1063 21
25 Alex Noren 49 1039 26
26 Brendan Steele 49 1016 27
27 Webb Simpson 51 1007 22
28 Rafa Cabrera Bello 61 1002 30
29 Patrick Reed 69 976 28
30 Tommy Fleetwood 55 935 36
31 Gary Woodland 57 932 29
32 Steve Stricker 28 930 32
33 Brandt Snedeker 45 908 35
34 Chez Reavie 56 908 31
35 Daniel Berger 54 907 38
36 Ryan Moore 48 904 34
37 Kevin Chappell 57 899 33
38 Kevin Kisner 57 887 37
39 Charles Howell 48 879 39
40 Charley Hoffman 61 855 41
41 Adam Hadwin 55 850 48
42 Jason Dufner 49 847 40
43 Xander Schauffele 39 844 44
44 Zach Johnson 50 837 43
45 Branden Grace 56 834 42
46 Emiliano Grillo 54 817 45
47 Kevin Na 50 813 46
48 Bill Haas 50 806 47
49 Kyle Stanley 56 790 51
50 Lucas Glover 48 778 52
51 Russell Henley 52 763 49
52 Keegan Bradley 56 758 53
53 Charl Schwartzel 47 757 50
54 Martin Laird 48 754 54
55 James Hahn 55 754 55
56 Bubba Watson 47 751 63
57 Cameron Smith 54 743 56
58 Brandon Harkins 16 726 58
59 Thomas Pieters 50 718 57
60 Luke List 60 718 59
61 Ryan Palmer 41 708 60
62 Scott Piercy 46 705 61
63 Matthew Fitzpatrick 56 703 64
64 Graham DeLaet 41 695 65
65 Ross Fisher 47 692 62
66 Kevin Streelman 53 690 67
67 Byeong Hun An 54 689 68
68 Jason Kokrak 55 686 66
69 Bud Cauley 48 685 69
70 Ian Poulter 48 679 71
71 Martin Kaymer 51 676 70
72 Jamie Lovemark 56 666 72
73 Bernd Wiesberger 56 658 75
74 Stewart Cink 46 657 73
75 Ollie Schniederjans 42 655 74
76 JB Holmes 51 650 76
77 Jhonattan Vegas 61 648 78
78 Jimmy Walker 50 636 77
79 Anirban Lahiri 53 627 79
80 Shane Lowry 52 623 81
81 Russell Knox 61 620 80
82 William McGirt 55 592 82
83 Chris Kirk 60 582 83
84 Jordan L Smith 13 567 84
85 Chesson Hadley 43 547 86
86 Lee Westwood 48 545 85
87 Hudson Swafford 55 539 87
88 Patton Kizzire 55 535 100
89 Peter Uihlein 44 533 88
90 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 57 528 110
91 Soren Kjeldsen 54 523 89
92 Sean O’Hair 54 522 90
93 David Lingmerth 57 522 91
94 Sung Kang 62 520 92
95 Scott Brown 57 512 93
96 Billy Horschel 50 509 94
97 Brian Gay 48 504 96
98 Jerry Kelly 26 502 95
99 Scott Stallings 57 500 97
100 Graeme McDowell 58 497 99
101 Jim Furyk 34 487 101
102 JJ Spaun 44 487 103
103 Bryson DeChambeau 56 486 102
104 Aaron Wise 21 485 105
105 Haotong Li 47 484 98
106 Si Woo Kim 60 482 104
107 Grayson Murray 41 481 106
108 Patrick Rodgers 58 478 107
109 Nick Taylor 56 474 109
110 Robert Garrigus 49 470 108
111 Victor Dubuisson 32 469 111
112 Joost Luiten 53 466 112
113 Rafael Campos 10 456 114
114 Alexander Levy 46 456 113
115 Vaughn Taylor 57 448 117
116 Austin Cook 17 448 115
117 Nick Watney 31 448 116
118 Andrew Landry 30 444 118
119 Aaron Baddeley 50 435 119
120 Danny Lee 66 435 120
121 Ben Martin 56 433 121
122 Andy Sullivan 56 427 123
123 Wesley Bryan 42 425 124
124 Kevin Tway 42 424 125
125 Dylan Frittelli 44 421 122
126 Harris English 58 419 126
127 Thorbjorn Olesen 53 406 127
128 Sam Saunders 53 406 128
129 Chad Campbell 57 402 129
130 John Huh 56 396 131
131 Mackenzie Hughes 44 395 132
132 Beau Hossler 22 394 130
133 Michael Thompson 43 392 133
134 Kelly Kraft 55 390 135
135 CT Pan 45 389 134
136 Shubhankar Sharma 19 388 209
137 Miguel Angel Jimenez 18 385 136
138 Hideto Tanihara 31 380 138
139 Jim Herman 52 379 137
140 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 371 140
141 Dominic Bozzelli 34 371 139
142 Jorge Campillo 54 370 160
143 Tom Hoge 53 368 143
144 Fabrizio Zanotti 48 368 141
145 Brandon Hagy 33 368 142
146 Seung-yul Noh 49 366 147
147 Whee Kim 58 366 144
148 Derek Fathauer 57 364 148
149 Andrew Johnston 46 363 146
150 Rory Sabbatini 49 362 154
151 Harold Varner 61 362 145
152 Brian Stuard 58 361 152
153 Martin Flores 41 360 150
154 David Hearn 59 358 153
155 Robert Streb 57 356 155
156 Morgan Hoffmann 56 356 159
157 Richard Sterne 45 355 149
158 Chris Wood 54 355 158
159 Ted Potter 22 355 162
160 Alex Cejka 56 354 157
161 Paul Dunne 51 352 151
162 Michael Kim 55 350 163
163 Daniel Summerhays 57 347 161
164 Alexander Bjork 38 346 156
165 Eddie Pepperell 45 345 168
166 David Horsey 48 345 167
167 Nicolas Colsaerts 55 345 166
168 Tyrone van Aswegen 63 344 169
169 Roberto Castro 46 342 164
170 Daisuke Kataoka 11 340 171
171 Geoff Ogilvy 47 339 172
172 Luke Donald 50 338 170
173 Henrik Norlander 26 330 176
174 Julian Suri 22 328 165
175 Pablo Larrazabal 52 327 175
176 Johnson Wagner 53 327 173
177 Talor Gooch 16 327 174
178 Richie Ramsay 51 326 177
179 George Coetzee 57 323 178
180 Padraig Harrington 47 319 179
181 JT Poston 42 316 180
182 Ryan Fox 42 315 183
183 Chris Stroud 54 314 182
184 Ryan Blaum 43 314 184
185 David Lipsky 56 313 181
186 Jeunghun Wang 56 305 187
187 Seamus Power 42 305 185
188 Billy Hurley 53 304 186
189 Blayne Barber 49 298 188
190 Retief Goosen 42 294 189
191 Tyler Duncan 16 292 190
192 Chris Paisley 56 290 194
193 Dean Burmester 43 289 199
194 Jaco van Zyl 34 285 192
195 Ryan Armour 38 284 193
196 John Senden 35 283 191
197 Smylie Kaufman 55 276 196
198 Matthew Southgate 58 270 198
199 Benjamin Hebert 50 270 195
200 Ricky Barnes 63 269 197
201 Camilo Villegas 57 268 203
202 Tom Lovelady 15 268 202
203 Andres Gonzales 50 268 201
204 Trey Mullinax 42 263 205
205 Tim Wilkinson 46 262 204
206 Richard Bland 50 260 200
207 Kyung-tae Kim 19 260 206
208 Troy Merritt 63 258 207
209 Thongchai Jaidee 53 257 208
210 Peter Hanson 36 257 211
211 Cameron Percy 45 256 210
212 Xin-jun Zhang 15 256 212
213 Nacho Elvira 56 256 213
214 Matthieu Pavon 37 253 214
215 Ryo Ishikawa 28 253 215
216 Scott Hend 61 251 216
217 Jonas Blixt 51 251 217
218 Scott Jamieson 54 251 224
219 Curtis Luck 24 250 221
220 Stephen Gallacher 44 250 218
221 Benjamin Silverman 16 250 219
222 Julian Etulain 29 246 225
223 Martin Piller 27 246 222
224 Rikard Karlberg 37 245 223
225 Adrian Otaegui 55 245 226
226 Brice Garnett 29 244 228
227 Rob Oppenheim 38 244 227
228 Cameron Tringale 61 239 229
229 Alejandro Canizares 45 239 231
230 Matt Jones 55 238 234
231 Ashun Wu 46 238 233
232 Richy Werenski 41 237 232
233 JJ Henry 55 237 236
234 Bradley Dredge 45 235 235
235 Kyle Reifers 59 235 230
236 Callum Shinkwin 43 234 237
237 Anthony Wall 38 234 240
238 Ben Crane 53 228 242
239 Abraham Ancer 30 228 241
240 Shawn Stefani 59 227 244
241 Joakim Lagergren 50 225 245
242 Adam Bland 12 225 430
243 Chase Koepka 13 225 220
244 David Toms 17 225 238
245 Gregory Bourdy 58 225 239
246 Thomas Detry 38 224 246
247 Lanto Griffin 14 222 248
248 Mikko Ilonen 46 221 247
249 Keith Mitchell 18 220 249
250 Yuta Ikeda 19 219 255
251 Tag Ridings 27 219 251
252 Graeme Storm 52 218 252
253 Florian Fritsch 31 218 250
254 Robert Rock 50 217 253
255 Matt Wallace 32 214 256
256 Adam Schenk 18 213 257
257 Renato Paratore 59 213 259
258 Robby Shelton 12 213 260
259 Zac Blair 65 212 261
260 Corey Conners 16 212 262
261 Jonathan Byrd 26 211 267
262 Chris Hanson 50 210 263
263 Will MacKenzie 36 210 258
264 Poom Saksansin 16 209 266
265 Marc Warren 55 208 269
266 Vijay Singh 40 208 264
267 Marcus Kinhult 16 207 243
268 Darren Fichardt 42 207 254
269 Chad Collins 47 203 271
270 Maximilian Kieffer 49 203 268
271 Nino Bertasio 57 202 265
272 Andrew Dodt 45 202 275
273 Fabian Gomez 50 202 272
274 David Drysdale 56 202 270
275 Spencer Levin 56 200 273
276 Thomas Aiken 51 199 279
277 John Peterson 23 199 277
278 Boo Weekley 44 198 274
279 Scott Langley 24 197 276
280 Jonathan Randolph 39 196 281
281 Joel Dahmen 31 193 284
282 Jordan Smith 23 193 283
283 Austin Connelly 26 193 286
284 Romain Wattel 52 192 282
285 Cody Gribble 41 192 285
286 Paul Waring 36 191 288
287 Michael Putnam 12 191 294
288 Davis Love 26 191 289
289 Mikko Korhonen 46 190 301
290 Young-han Song 14 190 290
291 Khalin Joshi 8 190 291
292 Oliver Fisher 56 189 292
293 Jamie Donaldson 48 188 287
294 Jason Scrivener 53 188 295
295 Danny Willett 46 187 278
296 Bryce Molder 43 187 280
297 Sebastian Munoz 24 187 300
298 Andrew Putnam 16 186 293
299 Nicholas Lindheim 38 186 299
300 KJ Choi 48 185 297
301 Bronson Burgoon 30 185 296
302 Rod Pampling 48 184 302
303 Haydn Porteous 61 181 298
304 Matteo Manassero 51 181 304
305 DA Points 46 181 306
306 Wade Ormsby 39 181 305
307 Sangmoon Bae 10 177 310
308 Freddie Jacobson 25 176 307
309 Stephan Jaeger 21 174 312
310 Steve Wheatcroft 49 173 309
311 Ricardo Gouveia 56 173 311
312 Greg Owen 40 173 314
313 James Morrison 54 172 313
314 Colt Knost 29 171 303
315 Gregory Havret 56 170 315
316 Sean Crocker 11 165 317
317 David Bransdon 8 163 319
318 Alex Prugh 16 163 318
319 Julien Quesne 46 162 316
320 Marcus Fraser 43 159 320
321 Andrea Pavan 12 159 308
322 Peter Malnati 62 159 321
323 Angel Cabrera 35 158 322
324 Lucas Bjerregaard 57 156 323
325 Lee Slattery 53 156 325
326 Paul Peterson 50 155 327
327 Rick Lamb 32 155 328
328 Greg Chalmers 51 154 329
329 Joachim B Hansen 22 154 335
330 Andres Romero 36 154 333
331 Michael Johnson 10 153 330
332 Anders Hansen 15 153 332
333 Robert Karlsson 45 153 331
334 JC Ritchie 9 151 359
335 Satoshi Kodaira 12 151 326
336 Sam Brazel 41 151 339
337 Lucas Herbert 12 150 340
338 Prayad Marksaeng 10 150 338
339 Wes Roach 20 149 336
340 Ryan Brehm 32 148 342
341 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 33 148 341
342 Carlos Ortiz 28 147 345
343 Aaron Rai 22 146 324
344 Maverick McNealy 10 145 348
345 Brett Stegmaier 57 145 344
346 Hunter Mahan 54 144 347
347 Juvic Pagunsan 10 142 351
348 Lasse Jensen 51 141 350
349 Rhein Gibson 23 141 352
350 Trevor Fisher 25 141 334
351 Jose-Filipe Lima 30 141 349
352 Ashley Chesters 32 140 343
353 Tom Gillis 8 140 358
354 Yusaku Miyazato 14 139 337
355 Connor Syme 13 138 374
356 Brandon Stone 48 136 354
357 Marcel Siem 50 135 360
358 Erik Van Rooyen 14 135 382
359 Julien Guerrier 13 135 346
360 Steve Marino 31 135 355
361 Tapio Pulkkanen 8 133
362 Raphael Jacquelin 52 133 356
363 Hennie Otto 21 132 363
364 Will Wilcox 31 132 365
365 Sebastian Heisele 25 132 366
366 Johan Carlsson 47 131 367
367 Jake McLeod 8 131 368
368 Jon Curran 42 131 361
369 Bernd Ritthammer 30 130 357
370 Phachara Khongwatmai 37 130 369
371 Ryan Ruffels 13 130 364
372 Brian Campbell 27 129 373
373 Romain Langasque 36 129 362
374 Brett Drewitt 27 129 371
375 Jordan Zunic 13 128 372
376 Justin Hicks 13 126 370
377 Felipe Aguilar 49 126 383
378 Nate Lashley 14 126 375
379 Charlie Ford 13 126 353
380 Ockie Strydom 9 125 395
381 Joel Stalter 28 124 376
382 Roberto Diaz 20 123 377
383 Shiv Kapur 27 123 378
384 Bill Lunde 11 122 381
385 Richard Lee 11 121 379
386 Brett Coletta 10 121 380
387 Thomas Bjorn 35 117 387
388 Magnus A Carlsson 41 117 386
389 YE Yang 30 117 385
390 Justin Walters 53 117 390
391 Jeff Winther 39 116 392
392 Stuart Appleby 43 116 384
393 Jacques Blaauw 16 115 416
394 Nicolas Geyger 8 115
395 Kristoffer Broberg 28 114 393
396 Luke Guthrie 19 113 389
397 Stephen Leaney 8 112 396
398 Adrien Saddier 16 112 394
399 Gavin Green 12 112 399
400 Josh Teater 10 112 401
More | Less

A look at the Mexico Championship

February 26, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Some family issues, injuries, and maybe the water or the back-and-forth across North America have combined to somewhat thin out the field at this week’s World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship. It’s a very good field but not a great one. Included are eight of the top 10 and 10 of the top 15 in the current week Hawley Ratings. Not in attendance are Jason Day, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and Henrik Stenson from the top 15.
The top pick here is Dustin Johnson, who has been solid four out of four times this year. Next is Paul Casey, Read more

World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship

February 26, 2018 Thomas Hawley , ,
Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Dustin Johnson -1.8 7
2 Paul Casey 14.0 12
3 Justin Thomas 17.4 2
4 Phil Mickelson 18.6 1
5 Jordan Spieth 20.6 14
6 Rickie Fowler 23.8 37
7 Jon Rahm 25.4 20
8 Louis Oosthuizen 27.4 30
9 Justin Rose 31.3 37
10 Patrick Cantlay 32.3 30
11 Alex Noren 33.4 14
12 Tony Finau 33.8 27
13 Chez Reavie 36.2 52
14 Webb Simpson 36.7 37
15 Matt Kuchar 36.7 58
16 Kevin Chappell 39.0 30
17 Tommy Fleetwood 39.1 14
18 Xander Schauffele 40.9 18
19 Marc Leishman 41.9 37
20 Tyrrell Hatton 42.0 3
21 Brian Harman 42.1 5
22 Patrick Reed 42.5 37
23 Pat Perez 43.2 20
24 Gary Woodland 43.4 50
25 Rafa Cabrera Bello 43.5 3
26 Bubba Watson 44.4 9
27 Brendan Steele 44.7 20
28 Daniel Berger 45.9 14
29 Sergio Garcia 46.9 7
30 Francesco Molinari 47.6 25
31 Branden Grace 47.6 30
32 Jason Dufner 47.8 55
33 Matthew Fitzpatrick 48.3 30
34 Adam Hadwin 48.8 9
35 Charley Hoffman 49.4 20
36 Russell Henley 52.3 58
37 Charl Schwartzel 52.4 48
38 Ross Fisher 53.0 46
39 Thomas Pieters 54.0 37
40 Kevin Kisner 54.4 29
41 Kyle Stanley 56.4 25
42 Dylan Frittelli 57.2 55
43 Joost Luiten 58.1 37
44 Bernd Wiesberger 59.5 30
45 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 60.9 5
46 Jhonattan Vegas 61.5 20
47 Peter Uihlein 62.4 37
48 Haotong Li 63.0 63
49 Jorge Campillo 63.4 27
50 Chris Paisley 64.0 37
51 David Lipsky 67.1 48
52 Dean Burmester 69.7 30
53 Paul Dunne 71.1 55
54 Shubhankar Sharma 71.3 9
55 Abraham Ancer 71.5 52
56 Yuta Ikeda 73.8 46
57 Yusaku Miyazato 75.4 60
58 Satoshi Kodaira 75.8 54
59 Brett Rumford 75.8 62
60 Wade Ormsby 77.3 50
61 Brandon Stone 78.6 60
62 Adam Bland 80.5 18
63 Chan Kim 80.9 DNP
64 Gavin Kyle Green 84.8 64
Patton Kizzire late entry 12
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 282. The average is 212. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.