Tshwane Open

February 26, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Alexander Bjork
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Alexander Bjork 64.5 88
2 George Coetzee 64.6 1
3 Jacques Blaauw 65.7 13
4 Richard Sterne 65.9 21
5 Marcus Kinhult 67.8 74
6 Benjamin Hebert 68.1 63
7 Maximilian Kieffer 68.3 48
8 Darren Fichardt 68.5 70
9 Haydn Porteous 69.3 48
10 Scott Jamieson 69.5 7
11 Julian Suri 69.8 48
12 Mikko Korhonen 70.1 3
13 Daisuke Kataoka 70.1 DNP
14 Justin Walters 70.1 21
15 Nino Bertasio 70.5 88
16 Trevor Fisher 70.7 88
17 Chase Koepka 70.7 WD
18 Gregory Bourdy 70.8 54
19 Hennie Otto 71.3 29
20 Thomas Aiken 71.9 8
21 Andrea Pavan 72.1 122
22 Richard Bland 72.1 122
23 David Drysdale 72.3 101
24 Jeff Winther 72.7 21
25 Adilson da Silva 72.9 11
26 Danny Willett 73.2 29
27 Jaco Ahlers 73.5 101
28 Bernd Ritthammer 73.6 110
29 Aaron Rai 73.6 88
30 Ashley Chesters 73.9 101
31 Ricardo Gouveia 74.0 29
32 Julien Quesne 74.1 63
33 Julien Guerrier 74.4 38
34 David Howell 74.8 21
35 Daan Huizing 75.0 110
36 Zander Lombard 75.1 74
37 Romain Langasque 75.2 101
38 Ben Evans 75.2 135
39 Raphael Jacquelin 75.3 74
40 Felipe Aguilar 75.4 4
41 Daniel Brooks 75.5 WD
42 Marcus Armitage 75.6 DNP
43 Duncan Stewart 75.6 101
44 Nicolas Geyger 75.6 122
45 Richard McEvoy 75.6 74
46 Mark Foster 75.7 144
47 Jens Fahrbring 75.7 DNP
48 Charlie Ford 75.8 66
49 Alexander Knappe 75.8 88
50 Jbe Kruger 76.0 110
51 Laurie Canter 76.1 21
52 Tapio Pulkkanen 76.2 74
53 Soo-min Lee 76.3 48
54 Matthew Nixon 76.5 88
55 Jens Dantorp 76.6 21
56 Sam Horsfield 76.7 2
57 JC Ritchie 76.8 13
58 Pep Angles 76.8 122
59 Erik Van Rooyen 76.9 10
60 Louis de Jager 76.9 29
61 Jin Choi 76.9 29
62 Pontus Widegren 77.0 101
63 Sebastien Gros 77.1 4
64 Ockie Strydom 77.5 17
65 Anthony Michael 77.7 122
66 Connor Syme 78.3 11
67 Tjaart van der Walt 78.7 48
68 Matthew Baldwin 78.9 38
69 Shaun Norris 79.0 38
70 Dawie van der Walt 79.1 38
71 Gavin Moynihan 79.2 135
72 Vaughn Groenewald 79.3 101
73 Kyle McClatchie 79.4 38
74 Oliver Bekker 79.5 74
75 Scott Vincent 79.5 13
76 Steven Brown 79.6 74
77 Jean Hugo 79.7 59
78 Daniel Greene 79.8 38
79 Keith Horne 79.9 130
80 Jacques Kruyswijk 79.9 29
81 Clement Sordet 80.0 54
82 Ryan Evans 80.1 21
83 Scott Fernandez 80.1 110
84 Neil Schietekat 80.3 110
85 Mark Williams 80.5 69
86 Christofer Blomstrand 80.5 38
87 Victor Perez 80.7 13
88 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80.8 17
89 Jean-Paul Strydom 81.0 88
90 Merrick Bremner 81.6 101
91 Grant Forrest 81.6 59
92 Morten Orum Madsen 81.8 29
93 Oliver Farr 82.0 74
94 Wallie Coetsee 82.4 74
95 Hennie du Plessis 82.4 72
96 Justin Harding 82.7 74
97 Toby Tree 83.0 54
98 MJ Viljoen 83.0 144
99 Peter Karmis 83.0 17
100 Garrick Porteous 83.1 141
101 Tyrone Ferreira 83.2 130
102 Jason Norris 83.3 110
103 Matthias Schwab 83.3 29
104 Ross McGowan 83.5 88
105 Jonathan Thomson 83.7 72
106 Doug McGuigan 83.7 88
107 Bryce Easton 83.8 21
108 Jared Harvey 83.8 149
109 Pedro Oriol 83.8 8
110 Alex Haindl 83.9 54
111 Rourke van der Spuy 84.0 74
112 Ulrich van den Berg 84.1 WD
113 Lorenzo Gagli 84.3 29
114 Keenan Davidse 84.5 151
115 Jake Roos 84.6 88
116 Christian Braeunig 84.6 DNP
117 Marcel Schneider 84.6 135
118 Tyrone Ryan 84.6 68
119 Garth Mulroy 84.6 74
120 Lyle Rowe 84.7 70
121 Rhys West 84.7 110
122 Chris Swanepoel 84.8 122
123 Ruan de Smidt 84.9 122
124 Jaco Prinsloo 85.0 54
125 Daniel van Tonder 85.0 4
126 Robert MacIntyre 85.1 DNP
127 Christopher Mivis 85.2 63
128 Bradley Neil 85.3 110
129 Titch Moore 85.3 148
130 Rak hyun Cho 85.3 135
131 Madalisto Muthiya 85.4 66
132 Christiaan Basson 85.5 74
133 Rhys Enoch 85.5 144
134 Jack Singh Brar 85.6 88
135 Hugo Leon 85.6 DNP
136 Petr Dedek 85.6 153
137 Patrick Newcomb 85.6 38
138 Marc Cayeux 85.6 141
139 Riekus Nortje 85.6 110
140 Matias Calderon 85.6 144
141 Henric Sturehed 85.6 110
142 Robin Sciot-Siegrist 85.6 48
143 Joel Girrbach 85.6 DNP
144 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 85.6 DNP
145 JJ Senekal 85.6 17
146 James Heath 85.7 88
147 Chris Lloyd 85.8 110
148 Tom Murray 86.0 88
Breyten Meyer late entry 43
Toto Thimba late entry 46
Matthew Carvell late entry 61
Combrinck Smit late entry 62
Callum Mowat late entry 84
Damon Stephenson late entry 107
James Kingston late entry 112
Andre De Decker late entry 124
Zack Byrd late entry 130
Jacquin Hess late entry 132
Makhetha Mazibuko late entry 134
Chris Cannon late entry 135
Lindani Ndwandwe late entry 139
CJ du Plessis late entry 142
Dwayne Basson late entry 149
Altaaf Bux late entry 152
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 221. The average is 212. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (February 25, 2018)

February 26, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson has a streak of 50 weeks on top of the ratings as he heads into the core of his season.
# Thru Feb. 25, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Dustin Johnson 47 1754 1
2 Paul Casey 47 1662 2
3 Jordan Spieth 51 1609 3
4 Jason Day 44 1469 5
5 Rickie Fowler 51 1465 4
6 Justin Thomas 54 1461 8
7 Patrick Cantlay 18 1460 6
8 Jon Rahm 42 1438 7
9 Phil Mickelson 49 1328 11
10 Brooks Koepka 45 1328 10
11 Rory McIlroy 42 1304 9
12 Hideki Matsuyama 47 1292 12
13 Justin Rose 46 1291 13
14 Matt Kuchar 62 1199 14
15 Henrik Stenson 47 1151 15
16 Pat Perez 35 1109 16
17 Marc Leishman 54 1108 17
18 Louis Oosthuizen 44 1102 18
19 Tony Finau 57 1083 19
20 Francesco Molinari 49 1071 20
21 Adam Scott 43 1068 22
22 Webb Simpson 50 1026 28
23 Sergio Garcia 44 1019 23
24 Brian Harman 58 1018 25
25 Tyrrell Hatton 48 1013 21
26 Alex Noren 48 1011 31
27 Brendan Steele 48 1004 26
28 Patrick Reed 69 997 24
29 Gary Woodland 56 959 27
30 Rafa Cabrera Bello 61 952 29
31 Chez Reavie 55 932 33
32 Steve Stricker 28 929 34
33 Kevin Chappell 56 909 35
34 Ryan Moore 48 907 32
35 Brandt Snedeker 46 907 30
36 Tommy Fleetwood 54 905 43
37 Kevin Kisner 57 887 36
38 Daniel Berger 54 883 38
39 Charles Howell 48 878 37
40 Jason Dufner 49 874 39
41 Charley Hoffman 61 844 40
42 Branden Grace 56 839 41
43 Zach Johnson 51 838 42
44 Xander Schauffele 38 825 44
45 Emiliano Grillo 55 818 52
46 Kevin Na 51 817 45
47 Bill Haas 51 805 46
48 Adam Hadwin 54 803 47
49 Russell Henley 51 785 50
50 Charl Schwartzel 47 784 48
51 Kyle Stanley 55 778 49
52 Lucas Glover 48 777 55
53 Keegan Bradley 56 755 51
54 Martin Laird 48 752 56
55 James Hahn 55 752 54
56 Cameron Smith 54 739 57
57 Thomas Pieters 49 724 68
58 Brandon Harkins 16 722 58
59 Luke List 60 714 77
60 Ryan Palmer 41 710 53
61 Scott Piercy 47 708 69
62 Ross Fisher 47 705 63
63 Bubba Watson 47 703 60
64 Matthew Fitzpatrick 56 699 64
65 Graham DeLaet 41 695 65
66 Jason Kokrak 55 688 66
67 Kevin Streelman 53 688 67
68 Byeong Hun An 55 688 80
69 Bud Cauley 48 684 59
70 Martin Kaymer 52 678 62
71 Ian Poulter 48 677 61
72 Jamie Lovemark 56 665 81
73 Stewart Cink 46 655 73
74 Ollie Schniederjans 42 654 70
75 Bernd Wiesberger 56 654 71
76 JB Holmes 52 651 72
77 Jimmy Walker 51 638 78
78 Jhonattan Vegas 60 631 74
79 Anirban Lahiri 54 626 76
80 Russell Knox 62 624 75
81 Shane Lowry 53 623 79
82 William McGirt 55 594 82
83 Chris Kirk 60 585 83
84 Jordan L Smith 13 571 84
85 Lee Westwood 48 546 88
86 Chesson Hadley 43 545 85
87 Hudson Swafford 55 539 86
88 Peter Uihlein 43 535 87
89 Soren Kjeldsen 55 525 93
90 Sean O’Hair 54 523 89
91 David Lingmerth 58 522 90
92 Sung Kang 62 518 92
93 Scott Brown 57 514 94
94 Billy Horschel 51 512 91
95 Jerry Kelly 26 505 99
96 Brian Gay 48 501 95
97 Scott Stallings 57 499 105
98 Haotong Li 46 498 102
99 Graeme McDowell 59 497 96
100 Patton Kizzire 54 492 97
101 Jim Furyk 34 492 98
102 Bryson DeChambeau 56 488 104
103 JJ Spaun 44 485 100
104 Si Woo Kim 60 484 107
105 Aaron Wise 21 484 108
106 Grayson Murray 41 481 101
107 Patrick Rodgers 58 476 110
108 Robert Garrigus 49 474 103
109 Nick Taylor 56 473 109
110 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 57 468 106
111 Victor Dubuisson 33 466 113
112 Joost Luiten 52 466 112
113 Alexander Levy 46 455 115
114 Rafael Campos 10 451 116
115 Austin Cook 17 447 118
116 Nick Watney 31 446 123
117 Vaughn Taylor 57 445 114
118 Andrew Landry 30 442 111
119 Aaron Baddeley 50 436 122
120 Danny Lee 67 435 117
121 Ben Martin 56 432 124
122 Dylan Frittelli 43 430 140
123 Andy Sullivan 57 428 120
124 Wesley Bryan 42 423 119
125 Kevin Tway 42 422 121
126 Harris English 59 419 128
127 Thorbjorn Olesen 53 406 126
128 Sam Saunders 53 406 125
129 Chad Campbell 57 402 127
130 Beau Hossler 22 396 130
131 John Huh 56 395 144
132 Mackenzie Hughes 44 394 129
133 Michael Thompson 43 391 153
134 CT Pan 45 388 165
135 Kelly Kraft 55 387 174
136 Miguel Angel Jimenez 18 384 131
137 Jim Herman 52 379 135
138 Hideto Tanihara 31 379 132
139 Dominic Bozzelli 34 370 191
140 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 369 152
141 Fabrizio Zanotti 48 369 134
142 Brandon Hagy 33 368 146
143 Tom Hoge 53 366 133
144 Whee Kim 58 366 147
145 Harold Varner 61 365 136
146 Andrew Johnston 46 365 148
147 Seung-yul Noh 49 364 150
148 Derek Fathauer 57 364 182
149 Richard Sterne 44 364 138
150 Martin Flores 41 361 137
151 Paul Dunne 50 361 151
152 Brian Stuard 58 361 141
153 David Hearn 59 360 149
154 Rory Sabbatini 49 360 179
155 Robert Streb 58 358 142
156 Alexander Bjork 37 358 156
157 Alex Cejka 56 357 143
158 Chris Wood 55 356 164
159 Morgan Hoffmann 56 355 154
160 Jorge Campillo 53 353 162
161 Daniel Summerhays 57 351 158
162 Ted Potter 22 351 139
163 Michael Kim 55 348 155
164 Roberto Castro 46 348 160
165 Julian Suri 21 347 145
166 Nicolas Colsaerts 55 346 163
167 David Horsey 48 345 167
168 Eddie Pepperell 45 345 173
169 Tyrone van Aswegen 63 344 159
170 Luke Donald 50 341 157
171 Daisuke Kataoka 11 340 166
172 Geoff Ogilvy 47 338 168
173 Johnson Wagner 53 329 171
174 Talor Gooch 16 328 161
175 Pablo Larrazabal 52 326 186
176 Henrik Norlander 26 325 175
177 Richie Ramsay 51 325 169
178 George Coetzee 57 320 187
179 Padraig Harrington 47 319 170
180 JT Poston 42 316 181
181 David Lipsky 55 315 180
182 Chris Stroud 54 314 188
183 Ryan Fox 42 313 185
184 Ryan Blaum 43 312 172
185 Seamus Power 42 306 176
186 Billy Hurley 53 305 178
187 Jeunghun Wang 56 303 184
188 Blayne Barber 49 298 183
189 Retief Goosen 42 297 177
190 Tyler Duncan 16 292 242
191 John Senden 35 291 189
192 Jaco van Zyl 34 285 194
193 Ryan Armour 38 285 190
194 Chris Paisley 55 283 195
195 Benjamin Hebert 49 280 193
196 Smylie Kaufman 56 278 192
197 Ricky Barnes 63 272 200
198 Matthew Southgate 58 270 197
199 Dean Burmester 42 270 204
200 Richard Bland 49 270 196
201 Andres Gonzales 50 269 203
202 Tom Lovelady 15 267 318
203 Camilo Villegas 57 267 199
204 Tim Wilkinson 46 264 207
205 Trey Mullinax 42 262 209
206 Kyung-tae Kim 20 258 212
207 Troy Merritt 63 258 208
208 Thongchai Jaidee 53 258 206
209 Shubhankar Sharma 18 256 201
210 Cameron Percy 45 256 215
211 Peter Hanson 36 255 216
212 Xin-jun Zhang 15 255 198
213 Nacho Elvira 56 255 211
214 Matthieu Pavon 37 253 219
215 Ryo Ishikawa 28 252 220
216 Scott Hend 62 252 210
217 Jonas Blixt 51 251 221
218 Stephen Gallacher 44 250 217
219 Benjamin Silverman 16 249 205
220 Chase Koepka 12 249 202
221 Curtis Luck 24 249 225
222 Martin Piller 27 248 223
223 Rikard Karlberg 37 247 222
224 Scott Jamieson 53 247 218
225 Julian Etulain 29 245 227
226 Adrian Otaegui 55 245 243
227 Rob Oppenheim 38 244 213
228 Brice Garnett 29 243 214
229 Cameron Tringale 61 240 226
230 Kyle Reifers 59 240 229
231 Alejandro Canizares 45 239 236
232 Richy Werenski 41 239 224
233 Ashun Wu 46 238 239
234 Matt Jones 55 237 240
235 Bradley Dredge 45 235 235
236 JJ Henry 55 235 233
237 Callum Shinkwin 43 234 247
238 David Toms 17 234 231
239 Gregory Bourdy 57 234 230
240 Anthony Wall 38 232 232
241 Abraham Ancer 29 232 228
242 Ben Crane 53 230 237
243 Marcus Kinhult 15 229 341
244 Shawn Stefani 59 229 238
245 Joakim Lagergren 50 225 245
246 Thomas Detry 38 225 246
247 Mikko Ilonen 46 223 244
248 Lanto Griffin 14 221 234
249 Keith Mitchell 18 219 241
250 Florian Fritsch 31 218 251
251 Tag Ridings 27 218 252
252 Graeme Storm 52 218 256
253 Robert Rock 50 217 249
254 Darren Fichardt 41 216 248
255 Yuta Ikeda 18 216 257
256 Matt Wallace 32 214 268
257 Adam Schenk 18 213 311
258 Will MacKenzie 36 212 260
259 Renato Paratore 59 211 285
260 Robby Shelton 12 211 265
261 Zac Blair 65 211 264
262 Corey Conners 16 211 250
263 Chris Hanson 50 210 254
264 Vijay Singh 40 210 259
265 Nino Bertasio 56 210 253
266 Poom Saksansin 16 210 263
267 Jonathan Byrd 26 210 266
268 Maximilian Kieffer 48 209 255
269 Marc Warren 55 209 258
270 David Drysdale 55 207 262
271 Chad Collins 47 205 267
272 Fabian Gomez 51 204 261
273 Spencer Levin 56 202 271
274 Boo Weekley 44 201 273
275 Andrew Dodt 45 200 281
276 Scott Langley 24 199 276
277 John Peterson 23 198 282
278 Danny Willett 46 197 272
279 Thomas Aiken 50 196 270
280 Bryce Molder 43 195 274
281 Jonathan Randolph 39 195 275
282 Romain Wattel 52 194 291
283 Jordan Smith 23 193 269
284 Joel Dahmen 31 193 310
285 Cody Gribble 41 192 280
286 Austin Connelly 26 191 284
287 Jamie Donaldson 49 191 277
288 Paul Waring 36 191 299
289 Davis Love 26 191 287
290 Young-han Song 14 190 288
291 Khalin Joshi 8 190 292
292 Oliver Fisher 56 188 312
293 Andrew Putnam 16 187 278
294 Michael Putnam 12 187 298
295 Jason Scrivener 53 187 304
296 Bronson Burgoon 30 186 279
297 KJ Choi 48 186 293
298 Haydn Porteous 60 186 286
299 Nicholas Lindheim 38 186 294
300 Sebastian Munoz 24 185 296
301 Mikko Korhonen 45 183 289
302 Rod Pampling 48 183 300
303 Colt Knost 29 182 283
304 Matteo Manassero 51 181 290
305 Wade Ormsby 38 181 301
306 DA Points 46 181 302
307 Freddie Jacobson 25 179 297
308 Andrea Pavan 11 177 368
309 Steve Wheatcroft 49 175 305
310 Sangmoon Bae 10 175 306
311 Ricardo Gouveia 55 175 303
312 Stephan Jaeger 21 174 295
313 James Morrison 54 173 307
314 Greg Owen 40 171 308
315 Gregory Havret 56 170 337
316 Julien Quesne 45 170 309
317 Sean Crocker 11 164 329
318 Alex Prugh 16 163 313
319 David Bransdon 8 162 315
320 Marcus Fraser 44 161 317
321 Peter Malnati 62 159 322
322 Angel Cabrera 35 157 323
323 Lucas Bjerregaard 57 157 316
324 Aaron Rai 21 156 353
325 Lee Slattery 53 155 320
326 Satoshi Kodaira 11 155 326
327 Paul Peterson 50 155 330
328 Rick Lamb 32 154 328
329 Greg Chalmers 51 154 400
330 Michael Johnson 10 154 325
331 Robert Karlsson 45 154 319
332 Anders Hansen 15 153 331
333 Andres Romero 36 153 333
334 Trevor Fisher 24 152 334
335 Joachim B Hansen 22 152 338
336 Wes Roach 20 152 327
337 Yusaku Miyazato 14 151 332
338 Prayad Marksaeng 10 150 336
339 Sam Brazel 41 150 324
340 Lucas Herbert 12 149 340
341 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 33 147 392
342 Ryan Brehm 32 147 342
343 Ashley Chesters 31 147 335
344 Brett Stegmaier 57 147 339
345 Carlos Ortiz 28 146 346
346 Julien Guerrier 12 145 314
347 Hunter Mahan 54 144 347
348 Maverick McNealy 10 144 348
349 Jose-Filipe Lima 30 142 349
350 Lasse Jensen 51 141 344
351 Juvic Pagunsan 10 141 355
352 Rhein Gibson 23 141 354
353 Charlie Ford 12 141 321
354 Brandon Stone 47 139 345
355 Steve Marino 31 139 350
356 Raphael Jacquelin 51 138 352
357 Bernd Ritthammer 29 137 356
358 Tom Gillis 8 136 365
359 JC Ritchie 8 136 359
360 Marcel Siem 50 135 369
361 Jon Curran 42 135 343
362 Romain Langasque 35 135 360
363 Hennie Otto 20 134 362
364 Ryan Ruffels 13 134 357
365 Will Wilcox 31 132 363
366 Sebastian Heisele 25 132 420
367 Johan Carlsson 47 131 366
368 Jake McLeod 8 130 371
369 Phachara Khongwatmai 37 130 361
370 Justin Hicks 13 129 370
371 Brett Drewitt 27 129 372
372 Jordan Zunic 14 128 373
373 Brian Campbell 27 128 374
374 Connor Syme 12 126 351
375 Nate Lashley 14 126 358
376 Joel Stalter 28 124 376
377 Roberto Diaz 20 123 448
378 Shiv Kapur 27 122 380
379 Richard Lee 11 122 378
380 Brett Coletta 10 121 383
381 Bill Lunde 11 120 384
382 Erik Van Rooyen 13 119 367
383 Felipe Aguilar 48 119 375
384 Stuart Appleby 43 119 381
385 YE Yang 30 117 388
386 Magnus A Carlsson 41 117 386
387 Thomas Bjorn 35 117 382
388 Ben Evans 40 116 379
389 Luke Guthrie 19 115 387
390 Justin Walters 52 115 389
391 Gavin Moynihan 9 114 364
392 Jeff Winther 38 113 385
393 Kristoffer Broberg 29 112 402
394 Adrien Saddier 16 112 377
395 Ockie Strydom 8 112 394
396 Stephen Leaney 8 112 397
397 Sebastian Soderberg 17 112 396
398 SSP Chawrasia 48 112 390
399 Gavin Green 12 111 398
400 Mark Hubbard 49 111 393
More | Less

A look at the Honda Classic

February 20, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Quite a few of the bigger names on the PGA Tour appear to be in no hurry to relocate their operations to the East Coast. This week’s Honda Classic at Palm Beach Gardens FL, on Florida’s Atlantic coast, about 80 miles north of Miami, has attracted a field with only three of the top 10 in the Hawley Ratings and four of the top 20. Those four appear in the top four spots on the list of event favorites, starting with Rickie Fowler. It’s no surprise to see Fowler on hand at PGA National after what he’s done here the last six years – most recently, last year’s victory, and before that two top 10s, a top 20, and two other made cuts in the Read more

Honda Classic

February 18, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Rickie Fowler
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Rickie Fowler 6.8 84
2 Justin Thomas 23.5 1
3 Rory McIlroy 27.3 59
4 Louis Oosthuizen 31.7 24
5 Gary Woodland 36.5 49
6 Sergio Garcia 37.2 33
7 Brian Harman 37.3 33
8 Tyrrell Hatton 40.1 77
9 Patrick Reed 40.7 77
10 Alex Noren 41.0 3
11 Adam Scott 43.1 13
12 Rafa Cabrera Bello 43.1 29
13 Russell Knox 43.3 106
14 Brandt Snedeker 44.8 84
15 Tommy Fleetwood 45.0 4
16 Daniel Berger 45.0 29
17 Webb Simpson 45.4 5
18 Charles Howell 46.5 97
19 Ryan Moore 47.8 49
20 Jason Dufner 48.4 17
21 Ian Poulter 50.1 84
22 Ryan Palmer 50.9 84
23 Russell Henley 51.3 24
24 Luke List 51.6 2
25 Keegan Bradley 51.9 49
26 Kevin Kisner 52.5 106
27 Bud Cauley 53.1 WD
28 Chesson Hadley 53.3 128
29 Emiliano Grillo 53.3 8
30 Scott Stallings 53.6 29
31 Jhonattan Vegas 53.8 72
32 Ollie Schniederjans 54.3 64
33 Lucas Glover 54.8 17
34 Martin Kaymer 55.0 WD
35 Stewart Cink 55.4 46
36 Scott Piercy 55.7 17
37 Patton Kizzire 56.0 128
38 Brian Gay 56.6 106
39 Anirban Lahiri 57.4 59
40 Byeong Hun An 57.5 5
41 Jamie Lovemark 58.4 7
42 Peter Uihlein 58.9 97
43 Thomas Pieters 59.0 13
44 Bryson DeChambeau 59.1 DNP
45 JB Holmes 59.3 49
46 Grayson Murray 59.4 106
47 Bernd Wiesberger 59.5 137
48 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 59.5 68
49 Billy Horschel 59.5 97
50 John Huh 59.5 24
51 Graeme McDowell 59.8 84
52 Chris Kirk 59.9 33
53 Vaughn Taylor 59.9 59
54 Shane Lowry 60.0 49
55 Sean O’Hair 60.2 97
56 William McGirt 60.3 33
57 Jim Furyk 60.7 46
58 Jimmy Walker 60.9 33
59 Martin Flores 60.9 74
60 David Lingmerth 61.3 106
61 Dylan Frittelli 61.5 11
62 Luke Donald 61.6 120
63 Rory Sabbatini 62.0 17
64 Hudson Swafford 62.2 64
65 Ben Martin 62.3 33
66 Patrick Rodgers 62.5 33
67 Austin Cook 62.5 DNP
68 Aaron Wise 62.7 33
69 Harris English 62.8 33
70 Nick Watney 63.4 33
71 Robert Garrigus 63.6 106
72 Scott Brown 63.7 46
73 Sung Kang 63.9 138
74 Camilo Villegas 64.3 68
75 JJ Spaun 64.3 120
76 Andrew Landry 64.8 77
77 Tyrone van Aswegen 65.2 68
78 Tom Hoge 65.5 131
79 Kevin Tway 65.6 120
80 Michael Thompson 65.7 24
81 Ted Potter 66.8 84
82 Harold Varner 66.9 72
83 Wesley Bryan 67.3 106
84 Padraig Harrington 67.4 128
85 Martin Pillar 67.5 67
86 Retief Goosen 67.5 97
87 Brian Stuard 67.6 131
88 Tiger Woods 67.7 12
89 Sam Burns 67.8 8
90 Morgan Hoffmann 67.9 49
91 Danny Lee 67.9 WD
92 Derek Fathauer 67.9 13
93 Chad Campbell 68.0 97
94 Seamus Power 68.1 125
95 Ryan Armour 68.1 106
96 CT Pan 68.2 17
97 Blayne Barber 68.4 84
98 Robert Streb 68.6 77
99 Si Woo Kim 68.8 DNP
100 Troy Merritt 68.8 49
101 Mackenzie Hughes 68.9 59
102 Talor Gooch 68.9 84
103 Michael Kim 69.1 57
104 Alex Cejka 69.1 WD
105 Chris Stroud 69.2 33
106 Brice Garnett 69.7 97
107 Dominic Bozzelli 70.2 13
108 Ryan Blaum 70.3 106
109 Richy Werenski 70.6 84
110 Kelly Kraft 70.7 8
111 Billy Hurley 70.8 120
112 Ben Crane 70.9 74
113 Rob Oppenheim 70.9 77
114 Cameron Tringale 71.2 106
115 JJ Henry 71.2 106
116 Corey Conners 71.2 59
117 Abraham Ancer 71.2 77
118 Benjamin Silverman 71.4 134
119 Smylie Kaufman 71.4 141
120 Sangmoon Bae 71.9 DNP
121 Xin-jun Zhang 71.9 134
122 Andrew Putnam 72.0 125
123 Bronson Burgoon 72.6 84
124 Matt Jones 72.8 DNP
125 Shawn Stefani 72.9 77
126 Tyler Duncan 73.1 24
127 Cody Gribble 73.4 84
128 Peter Malnati 73.4 49
129 Jonathan Randolph 73.5 68
130 Nicholas Lindheim 73.5 DNP
131 Tom Lovelady 73.5 17
132 John Peterson 73.5 DNP
133 Stephan Jaeger 73.6 134
134 Vijay Singh 73.6 DNP
135 Fabian Gomez 73.7 97
136 Joel Dahmen 74.0 33
137 Adam Schenk 74.1 29
138 DA Points 74.2 DNP
139 Brett Stegmaier 74.9 DNP
140 Matt Every 75.1 66
141 Jon Curran 75.3 120
142 Greg Chalmers 75.3 17
143 Roberto Diaz 76.2 33
144 Ethan Tracy 76.3 138
145 Conrad Shindler 76.6 DNP
146 Bob Estes 83.3 84
147 Charlie Beljan 85.6 DNP
148 Andrew Filbert 85.6 138
Andrew Novak late entry 58
Lanto Griffin late entry 94
TJ Vogel late entry 102
Sam Saunders late entry 111
Denny McCarthy late entry 115
Keith Mitchell late entry 119
Nate Lashley late entry 127
Jared Hack late entry 133
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 219. The average is 211. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Commercial Bank Qatar Masters

February 18, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Thorbjorn Olesen
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Thorbjorn Olesen 59.6 88
2 Soren Kjeldsen 62.7 DNP
3 Richie Ramsay 63.7 88
4 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 63.8 10
5 Andy Sullivan 63.9 34
6 Richard Sterne 64.3 45
7 George Coetzee 65.5 8
8 Jeunghun Wang 65.7 99
9 Fabrizio Zanotti 66.0 45
10 Benjamin Hebert 66.1 61
11 Nicolas Colsaerts 66.9 34
12 David Horsey 67.0 13
13 Alexander Bjork 67.6 19
14 Chris Wood 67.6 13
15 Hideto Tanihara 67.8 28
16 Thomas Detry 68.1 39
17 Eddie Pepperell 68.1 1
18 Daisuke Kataoka 68.6 DNP
19 Julian Suri 68.7 79
20 Pablo Larrazabal 68.9 4
21 Chase Koepka 69.3 53
22 Anthony Wall 69.4 121
23 Darren Fichardt 69.5 79
24 Shubhankar Sharma 69.6 79
25 Thomas Aiken 69.7 99
26 Nino Bertasio 69.8 121
27 Adrian Otaegui 69.8 10
28 Matthieu Pavon 69.9 28
29 Bradley Dredge 69.9 45
30 Ashun Wu 69.9 28
31 Richard Bland 70.0 74
32 Nacho Elvira 70.0 39
33 Stephen Gallacher 70.3 39
34 Mikko Ilonen 70.3 61
35 Thongchai Jaidee 70.4 53
36 Scott Jamieson 70.5 61
37 Scott Hend 70.6 70
38 Marc Warren 70.6 53
39 Maximilian Kieffer 70.7 79
40 Callum Shinkwin 70.7 19
41 Haydn Porteous 70.8 88
42 Chris Hanson 70.9 53
43 Matthew Southgate 70.9 79
44 Gregory Bourdy 70.9 88
45 Paul Peterson 71.0 DNP
46 Matt Wallace 71.1 19
47 Jason Scrivener 71.2 19
48 Robert Karlsson 71.3 76
49 David Drysdale 71.3 99
50 Robert Rock 71.3 99
51 Joakim Lagergren 71.5 45
52 Romain Wattel 71.8 19
53 Jamie Donaldson 72.1 59
54 Thomas Bjorn 72.2 99
55 Sean Crocker 72.5 28
56 Sam Brazel 72.6 88
57 Mikko Korhonen 72.8 99
58 Lee Slattery 72.9 129
59 Ricardo Gouveia 73.0 61
60 Oliver Fisher 73.0 2
61 Paul Waring 73.2 19
62 Jordan Smith 73.2 79
63 Renato Paratore 73.3 4
64 Paul Lawrie 73.3 61
65 Adrien Saddier 73.3 99
66 Lucas Bjerregaard 73.3 99
67 Phachara Khongwatmai 73.4 99
68 Matteo Manassero 73.4 99
69 Gregory Havret 73.5 4
70 Ashley Chesters 73.5 45
71 Tapio Pulkkanen 73.5 129
72 Poom Saksansin 73.6 DNP
73 Ben Evans 73.8 126
74 James Morrison 73.8 45
75 Lasse Jensen 73.9 121
76 Felipe Aguilar 74.0 121
77 Marcel Siem 74.1 28
78 SSP Chawrasia 74.2 114
79 Jeff Winther 74.3 99
80 Aaron Rai 74.8 19
81 Alvaro Quiros 74.8 19
82 Justin Walters 74.9 45
83 Julien Guerrier 74.9 88
84 Brandon Stone 75.0 88
85 Raphael Jacquelin 75.1 53
86 Daniel Im 75.3 77
87 Laurie Canter 75.4 126
88 Marcus Kinhult 75.5 3
89 Charlie Ford 75.8 117
90 Gavin Moynihan 75.8 114
91 Sebastian Heisele 75.8 8
92 Daniel Brooks 75.9 88
93 Carlos Pigem 76.0 114
94 Mark Foster 76.2 13
95 David Howell 76.2 61
96 Sam Horsfield 76.2 88
97 Simon Khan 76.3 99
98 Edoardo Molinari 76.3 72
99 Soo-min Lee 76.3 74
100 Jens Dantorp 76.3 128
101 Zander Lombard 76.4 79
102 Pep Angles 76.5 99
103 Pontus Widegren 76.9 78
104 Andrea Pavan 76.9 13
105 Sebastien Gros 77.3 45
106 Erik Van Rooyen 77.4 59
107 Connor Syme 77.6 117
108 Darren Clarke 77.6 131
109 Matthew Nixon 78.0 13
110 Nicolas Geyger 78.2 34
111 Clement Sordet 78.6 79
112 Adam Bland 78.9 117
113 Ryan Evans 79.4 61
114 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 79.5 4
115 Christofer Blomstrand 79.7 DNP
116 Steven Brown 79.7 39
117 Victor Perez 80.2 DNP
118 Jin Choi 80.3 72
119 Matthew Baldwin 80.5 10
120 Jacques Kruyswijk 80.7 39
121 Grant Forrest 81.6 53
122 Jazz Janewattananond 81.7 DNP
123 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 82.1 28
124 Jonathan Thomson 82.7 88
125 Seung-su Han 83.0 13
126 Oliver Farr 83.2 39
127 Ross McGowan 83.6 131
128 Scott Fernandez 83.6 19
129 Estanislao Goya 84.0 DNP
130 Marcel Schneider 84.1 70
131 Josh Geary 84.5 88
132 Matthias Schwab 84.8 61
133 Bradley Neil 85.3 99
134 Clarke Lutton 85.6 134
135 Reece Phillips 85.6 121
136 Sean Maisey 85.6 131
137 Ali Al-Shahrani 85.6 138
138 Saleh Al Kaabi 85.6 135
139 Ahmed Marjan 85.6 117
140 Joshua White 85.6 61
141 Ahmed Baig 85.6 99
142 Shergo Al Kurdi 85.6 136
143 Rak hyun Cho 85.6 34
144 Henric Sturehed 85.6 79
145 James Heath 85.7 137
146 Lorenzo Gagli 85.8 34
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 36. The average is 211. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Feb. 18, 2018)

February 18, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson has a streak of 49 weeks on top of the ratings as he heads into the core of his season.
# Thru Feb. 18, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Dustin Johnson 47 1760 1
2 Paul Casey 48 1662 2
3 Jordan Spieth 51 1613 3
4 Rickie Fowler 51 1516 4
5 Jason Day 44 1482 5
6 Patrick Cantlay 18 1458 10
7 Jon Rahm 42 1435 6
8 Justin Thomas 54 1401 8
9 Rory McIlroy 42 1366 7
10 Brooks Koepka 46 1329 9
11 Phil Mickelson 50 1325 13
12 Hideki Matsuyama 48 1294 11
13 Justin Rose 46 1292 12
14 Matt Kuchar 62 1203 14
15 Henrik Stenson 47 1156 15
16 Pat Perez 36 1108 17
17 Marc Leishman 54 1106 16
18 Louis Oosthuizen 44 1106 18
19 Tony Finau 58 1081 26
20 Francesco Molinari 50 1069 19
21 Tyrrell Hatton 47 1051 21
22 Adam Scott 43 1041 20
23 Sergio Garcia 44 1036 22
24 Patrick Reed 69 1031 23
25 Brian Harman 58 1025 25
26 Brendan Steele 49 1000 24
27 Gary Woodland 56 986 27
28 Webb Simpson 49 966 28
29 Rafa Cabrera Bello 60 960 30
30 Brandt Snedeker 45 946 31
31 Alex Noren 47 938 36
32 Ryan Moore 47 936 38
33 Chez Reavie 55 931 29
34 Steve Stricker 28 927 32
35 Kevin Chappell 56 913 37
36 Kevin Kisner 57 912 35
37 Charles Howell 48 909 34
38 Daniel Berger 54 887 33
39 Jason Dufner 49 847 41
40 Charley Hoffman 61 846 39
41 Branden Grace 57 841 40
42 Zach Johnson 52 841 42
43 Tommy Fleetwood 53 839 43
44 Xander Schauffele 38 826 51
45 Kevin Na 51 819 54
46 Bill Haas 51 803 45
47 Adam Hadwin 55 797 55
48 Charl Schwartzel 47 787 44
49 Kyle Stanley 56 772 47
50 Russell Henley 51 771 50
51 Keegan Bradley 56 771 46
52 Emiliano Grillo 55 767 49
53 Ryan Palmer 41 750 52
54 James Hahn 55 749 57
55 Lucas Glover 48 746 48
56 Martin Laird 49 746 68
57 Cameron Smith 54 735 74
58 Brandon Harkins 16 720 53
59 Bud Cauley 47 708 67
60 Bubba Watson 47 706 81
61 Ian Poulter 48 703 59
62 Martin Kaymer 51 703 56
63 Ross Fisher 47 699 63
64 Matthew Fitzpatrick 57 695 65
65 Graham DeLaet 42 694 64
66 Jason Kokrak 56 689 72
67 Kevin Streelman 53 687 62
68 Thomas Pieters 48 680 58
69 Scott Piercy 47 677 66
70 Ollie Schniederjans 42 676 60
71 Bernd Wiesberger 56 672 71
72 JB Holmes 51 670 61
73 Stewart Cink 46 667 73
74 Jhonattan Vegas 59 652 69
75 Russell Knox 62 647 76
76 Anirban Lahiri 54 643 78
77 Luke List 60 642 77
78 Jimmy Walker 51 642 70
79 Shane Lowry 53 636 75
80 Byeong Hun An 54 621 79
81 Jamie Lovemark 56 605 82
82 William McGirt 55 596 80
83 Chris Kirk 60 587 83
84 Jordan L Smith 13 575 84
85 Chesson Hadley 43 567 85
86 Hudson Swafford 55 558 89
87 Peter Uihlein 43 554 95
88 Lee Westwood 48 546 90
89 Sean O’Hair 54 542 86
90 David Lingmerth 58 539 88
91 Billy Horschel 51 534 87
92 Sung Kang 62 532 105
93 Soren Kjeldsen 55 527 92
94 Scott Brown 57 524 93
95 Brian Gay 47 517 94
96 Graeme McDowell 59 513 104
97 Patton Kizzire 54 512 97
98 Jim Furyk 33 511 91
99 Jerry Kelly 27 507 98
100 JJ Spaun 43 503 96
101 Grayson Murray 40 501 101
102 Haotong Li 46 497 99
103 Robert Garrigus 48 496 103
104 Bryson DeChambeau 56 488 106
105 Scott Stallings 57 486 128
106 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 56 485 108
107 Si Woo Kim 61 485 102
108 Aaron Wise 20 473 100
109 Nick Taylor 56 472 109
110 Patrick Rodgers 58 469 116
111 Andrew Landry 29 465 107
112 Joost Luiten 52 465 114
113 Victor Dubuisson 34 462 112
114 Vaughn Taylor 56 455 125
115 Alexander Levy 47 454 118
116 Rafael Campos 10 447 117
117 Danny Lee 66 447 111
118 Austin Cook 17 446 110
119 Wesley Bryan 41 437 113
120 Andy Sullivan 57 437 119
121 Kevin Tway 41 436 115
122 Aaron Baddeley 50 436 141
123 Nick Watney 30 434 120
124 Ben Martin 56 426 122
125 Sam Saunders 53 420 129
126 Thorbjorn Olesen 53 420 126
127 Chad Campbell 57 415 123
128 Harris English 58 413 121
129 Mackenzie Hughes 43 404 127
130 Beau Hossler 22 396 124
131 Miguel Angel Jimenez 18 384 138
132 Hideto Tanihara 30 383 139
133 Tom Hoge 53 380 136
134 Fabrizio Zanotti 47 379 148
135 Jim Herman 53 378 132
136 Harold Varner 61 378 133
137 Martin Flores 40 377 131
138 Richard Sterne 43 375 135
139 Ted Potter 21 374 130
140 Dylan Frittelli 42 373 145
141 Brian Stuard 57 373 137
142 Robert Streb 58 372 134
143 Alex Cejka 56 371 143
144 John Huh 56 371 164
145 Julian Suri 20 371 146
146 Brandon Hagy 33 368 149
147 Whee Kim 59 367 142
148 Andrew Johnston 47 366 153
149 David Hearn 60 363 151
150 Seung-yul Noh 50 362 155
151 Paul Dunne 51 360 157
152 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 44 359 144
153 Michael Thompson 43 359 159
154 Morgan Hoffmann 56 358 147
155 Michael Kim 55 356 150
156 Alexander Bjork 36 356 165
157 Luke Donald 50 356 162
158 Daniel Summerhays 58 356 156
159 Tyrone van Aswegen 63 354 152
160 Roberto Castro 46 354 158
161 Talor Gooch 15 353 213
162 Jorge Campillo 53 352 167
163 Nicolas Colsaerts 55 352 160
164 Chris Wood 54 351 168
165 CT Pan 44 349 154
166 Daisuke Kataoka 11 342 140
167 David Horsey 47 338 163
168 Geoff Ogilvy 48 338 161
169 Richie Ramsay 50 337 169
170 Padraig Harrington 47 332 166
171 Johnson Wagner 54 331 170
172 Ryan Blaum 42 324 171
173 Eddie Pepperell 44 323 172
174 Kelly Kraft 54 321 173
175 Henrik Norlander 26 321 177
176 Seamus Power 41 317 176
177 Retief Goosen 42 316 175
178 Billy Hurley 52 316 174
179 Rory Sabbatini 49 316 180
180 David Lipsky 56 315 184
181 JT Poston 42 315 183
182 Derek Fathauer 57 314 209
183 Blayne Barber 49 312 182
184 Jeunghun Wang 56 311 187
185 Ryan Fox 43 310 189
186 Pablo Larrazabal 51 309 178
187 George Coetzee 56 309 179
188 Chris Stroud 54 303 181
189 John Senden 36 301 188
190 Ryan Armour 37 298 186
191 Dominic Bozzelli 33 297 212
192 Smylie Kaufman 56 291 190
193 Benjamin Hebert 49 289 198
194 Jaco van Zyl 34 285 194
195 Chris Paisley 55 283 196
196 Richard Bland 49 281 193
197 Matthew Southgate 58 280 203
198 Xin-jun Zhang 14 276 191
199 Camilo Villegas 57 275 195
200 Ricky Barnes 64 275 197
201 Shubhankar Sharma 17 275 192
202 Chase Koepka 11 274 185
203 Andres Gonzales 50 271 202
204 Dean Burmester 42 270 201
205 Benjamin Silverman 15 269 199
206 Thongchai Jaidee 52 267 200
207 Tim Wilkinson 46 266 206
208 Troy Merritt 62 261 214
209 Trey Mullinax 42 260 211
210 Scott Hend 61 259 208
211 Nacho Elvira 55 259 207
212 Kyung-tae Kim 20 257 216
213 Rob Oppenheim 37 257 205
214 Brice Garnett 28 256 204
215 Cameron Percy 45 255 217
216 Peter Hanson 36 254 221
217 Stephen Gallacher 44 254 239
218 Scott Jamieson 52 253 223
219 Matthieu Pavon 36 252 218
220 Ryo Ishikawa 28 251 228
221 Jonas Blixt 52 250 236
222 Rikard Karlberg 37 249 227
223 Martin Piller 27 248 225
224 Richy Werenski 40 248 229
225 Curtis Luck 24 247 235
226 Cameron Tringale 61 247 215
227 Julian Etulain 29 245 237
228 Abraham Ancer 28 244 210
229 Kyle Reifers 60 244 230
230 Gregory Bourdy 57 244 232
231 David Toms 17 242 224
232 Anthony Wall 38 242 219
233 JJ Henry 54 241 231
234 Lanto Griffin 13 241 240
235 Bradley Dredge 44 241 226
236 Alejandro Canizares 46 239 241
237 Ben Crane 53 239 238
238 Shawn Stefani 58 238 233
239 Ashun Wu 45 238 234
240 Matt Jones 56 236 245
241 Keith Mitchell 17 234 246
242 Tyler Duncan 15 233 220
243 Adrian Otaegui 55 233 253
244 Mikko Ilonen 46 231 247
245 Joakim Lagergren 49 230 243
246 Thomas Detry 37 228 248
247 Callum Shinkwin 43 228 242
248 Darren Fichardt 40 226 244
249 Robert Rock 49 225 266
250 Corey Conners 15 224 254
251 Florian Fritsch 31 218 258
252 Tag Ridings 27 218 257
253 Nino Bertasio 56 218 251
254 Chris Hanson 49 217 250
255 Maximilian Kieffer 47 217 261
256 Graeme Storm 52 217 255
257 Yuta Ikeda 18 216 259
258 Marc Warren 54 215 256
259 Vijay Singh 41 214 249
260 Will MacKenzie 37 214 260
261 Fabian Gomez 51 214 252
262 David Drysdale 55 214 267
263 Poom Saksansin 16 211 265
264 Zac Blair 66 210 271
265 Robby Shelton 12 210 273
266 Jonathan Byrd 26 208 274
267 Chad Collins 48 208 270
268 Matt Wallace 31 206 263
269 Jordan Smith 22 205 282
270 Thomas Aiken 49 204 262
271 Spencer Levin 57 204 275
272 Danny Willett 46 204 269
273 Boo Weekley 45 203 277
274 Bryce Molder 43 203 268
275 Jonathan Randolph 38 202 272
276 Scott Langley 24 202 280
277 Jamie Donaldson 49 201 264
278 Andrew Putnam 15 201 281
279 Bronson Burgoon 30 201 278
280 Cody Gribble 40 199 276
281 Andrew Dodt 46 198 285
282 John Peterson 23 197 289
283 Colt Knost 30 193 279
284 Austin Connelly 26 193 291
285 Renato Paratore 59 192 288
286 Haydn Porteous 59 192 295
287 Davis Love 27 191 293
288 Young-han Song 14 190 294
289 Mikko Korhonen 45 190 283
290 Matteo Manassero 51 188 296
291 Romain Wattel 52 188 287
292 Khalin Joshi 8 188 297
293 KJ Choi 48 187 284
294 Nicholas Lindheim 38 186 292
295 Stephan Jaeger 20 186 286
296 Sebastian Munoz 24 184 304
297 Freddie Jacobson 26 184 299
298 Michael Putnam 12 183 307
299 Paul Waring 35 183 300
300 Rod Pampling 48 182 306
301 Wade Ormsby 39 181 305
302 DA Points 46 181 298
303 Ricardo Gouveia 55 180 301
304 Jason Scrivener 53 179 302
305 Steve Wheatcroft 50 177 309
306 Sangmoon Bae 10 176 290
307 James Morrison 54 176 303
308 Greg Owen 41 171 312
309 Julien Quesne 46 171 311
310 Joel Dahmen 30 171 308
311 Adam Schenk 17 168 313
312 Oliver Fisher 55 165 315
313 Alex Prugh 16 163 319
314 Julien Guerrier 11 162 490
315 David Bransdon 9 162 322
316 Lucas Bjerregaard 57 162 314
317 Marcus Fraser 45 162 318
318 Tom Lovelady 14 161 321
319 Robert Karlsson 44 160 316
320 Lee Slattery 52 160 324
321 Charlie Ford 11 158 347
322 Peter Malnati 62 158 320
323 Angel Cabrera 36 156 331
324 Sam Brazel 41 155 354
325 Michael Johnson 10 155 328
326 Satoshi Kodaira 11 155 333
327 Wes Roach 20 154 327
328 Rick Lamb 32 154 330
329 Sean Crocker 10 154 310
330 Paul Peterson 51 154 334
331 Anders Hansen 15 154 337
332 Yusaku Miyazato 14 153 336
333 Andres Romero 36 152 339
334 Trevor Fisher 24 152 323
335 Ashley Chesters 30 150 325
336 Prayad Marksaeng 10 150 338
337 Gregory Havret 56 150 332
338 Joachim B Hansen 23 149 343
339 Brett Stegmaier 58 149 340
340 Lucas Herbert 13 149 317
341 Marcus Kinhult 14 147 419
342 Ryan Brehm 32 146 346
343 Jon Curran 42 145 326
344 Lasse Jensen 51 145 342
345 Brandon Stone 46 145 341
346 Carlos Ortiz 29 144 349
347 Hunter Mahan 54 144 350
348 Maverick McNealy 10 143 357
349 Jose-Filipe Lima 30 143 351
350 Steve Marino 32 142 345
351 Connor Syme 11 141 348
352 Raphael Jacquelin 50 141 352
353 Aaron Rai 20 141 356
354 Rhein Gibson 24 140 360
355 Juvic Pagunsan 10 139 362
356 Bernd Ritthammer 29 138 344
357 Ryan Ruffels 13 137 359
358 Nate Lashley 13 137 363
359 JC Ritchie 8 137
360 Romain Langasque 35 135 358
361 Phachara Khongwatmai 36 135 365
362 Hennie Otto 20 133 353
363 Will Wilcox 32 133 368
364 Gavin Moynihan 8 132
365 Tom Gillis 9 132 373
366 Johan Carlsson 47 132 366
367 Erik Van Rooyen 12 132 355
368 Andrea Pavan 10 132 448
369 Marcel Siem 49 131 364
370 Justin Hicks 14 131 367
371 Jake McLeod 8 131 369
372 Brett Drewitt 27 129 371
373 Jordan Zunic 15 127 376
374 Brian Campbell 27 127 374
375 Felipe Aguilar 47 125 370
376 Joel Stalter 28 125 377
377 Adrien Saddier 15 124 361
378 Richard Lee 11 123 335
379 Ben Evans 39 122 372
380 Shiv Kapur 28 122 381
381 Stuart Appleby 44 122 375
382 Thomas Bjorn 34 122 387
383 Brett Coletta 10 120 383
384 Bill Lunde 11 119 392
385 Jeff Winther 37 118 408
386 Magnus A Carlsson 42 117 388
387 Luke Guthrie 19 117 384
388 YE Yang 30 117 390
389 Justin Walters 51 116 389
390 SSP Chawrasia 48 116 386
391 Lee McCoy 11 115 379
392 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 32 114 382
393 Mark Hubbard 50 114 391
394 Ockie Strydom 8 113
395 Daniel Im 51 113 393
396 Sebastian Soderberg 17 112 396
397 Stephen Leaney 9 112 397
398 Gavin Green 12 111 378
399 Josh Teater 10 111 399
400 Greg Chalmers 51 110 394
More | Less

A look at the Genesis Open

February 13, 2018 Thomas Hawley

This weekend the beautiful and spectator-friendly course at the Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades CA will be host to our second match-up in the last two weeks of the no. 1 vs. no. 2 players in the Hawley Ratings. We are referring to Genesis Open defending champion Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey, and again the slight edge from this vantage point goes to the no. 2-rated Casey. Although no one would say that last week’s Pebble Beach event unfolded as a Johnson vs. Casey battle, both finished in the top 10 and each had the edge in two of four rounds when comparing their scores on a course-by-course basis. In Casey’s favor is a performance edge and consistency over the past 10 months. In Johnson’s favor is almost (but not quite) the same level of performance and probably the best record in this event of anyone in the field.
In 19 appearances going back to the 2017 Dell Technologies Match Play event, Casey has 11 finishes in the top 10, five in the top 20, and three between 21st and 33rd; Read more

Genesis Open

February 11, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,
Paul Casey
Paul Casey
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Paul Casey -2.8 49
2 Dustin Johnson 1.3 16
3 Jordan Spieth 23.8 9
4 Phil Mickelson 29.4 6
5 Adam Scott 29.7 53
6 Justin Thomas 31.2 9
7 Chez Reavie 33.3 73
8 Rory McIlroy 35.2 20
9 Marc Leishman 36.0 103
10 Patrick Cantlay 38.7 4
11 Kevin Chappell 40.1 20
12 Matt Kuchar 40.2 26
13 Brendan Steele 41.5 49
14 Pat Perez 41.5 41
15 Tony Finau 42.5 2
16 Tommy Fleetwood 44.0 37
17 Rafa Cabrera Bello 44.1 26
18 Daniel Berger 44.5 135
19 Bubba Watson 45.7 1
20 Francesco Molinari 46.3 92
21 Alex Noren 47.0 16
22 Charley Hoffman 47.2 41
23 Charles Howell 47.5 37
24 Branden Grace 47.6 37
25 Keegan Bradley 48.5 78
26 James Hahn 50.2 14
27 Xander Schauffele 50.3 9
28 Kevin Streelman 50.4 41
29 Ryan Moore 50.9 9
30 Jason Kokrak 51.4 20
31 Brandon Harkins 51.5 41
32 Charl Schwartzel 51.8 68
33 Ollie Schniederjans 53.2 78
34 Martin Kaymer 53.4 53
35 Cameron Smith 54.2 6
36 Bud Cauley 54.4 20
37 Thomas Pieters 54.6 68
38 Lucas Glover 54.8 78
39 Jim Furyk 54.9 92
40 Adam Hadwin 55.5 6
41 Bill Haas 55.6 DNP
42 Brian Gay 55.7 122
43 Kyle Stanley 56.3 78
44 Kevin Na 56.3 2
45 Jhonattan Vegas 56.5 103
46 JB Holmes 56.9 60
47 Luke List 57.0 26
48 Martin Laird 57.9 9
49 William McGirt 57.9 112
50 Jimmy Walker 58.4 92
51 Shane Lowry 58.8 112
52 Austin Cook 59.1 49
53 Bryson DeChambeau 59.3 41
54 Anirban Lahiri 60.1 26
55 Sam Saunders 60.5 26
56 Harris English 60.9 103
57 Jamie Lovemark 60.9 26
58 Haotong Li 61.9 53
59 Martin Flores 61.9 122
60 Aaron Wise 61.9 78
61 Scott Stallings 62.7 4
62 Beau Hossler 62.8 103
63 Peter Uihlein 62.8 26
64 JJ Spaun 63.1 139
65 David Lingmerth 63.1 75
66 Scott Brown 63.2 78
67 Tiger Woods 63.4 112
68 Nick Taylor 64.1 41
69 Billy Horschel 64.1 112
70 Andrew Landry 64.2 122
71 Kevin Tway 64.7 78
72 Vaughn Taylor 64.8 20
73 Retief Goosen 64.8 53
74 Tyrone van Aswegen 65.0 68
75 Tom Hoge 65.2 53
76 Nick Watney 65.3 DNP
77 Sean O’Hair 65.4 64
78 Sung Kang 65.4 16
79 Patrick Rodgers 65.6 26
80 John Huh 65.7 26
81 CT Pan 65.7 78
82 Aaron Baddeley 66.1 14
83 Ted Potter 66.1 112
84 Graeme McDowell 66.4 26
85 Wesley Bryan 66.6 112
86 Harold Varner 66.7 60
87 Si Woo Kim 66.7 92
88 Brian Stuard 66.9 122
89 Ryan Armour 67.1 64
90 Danny Lee 67.2 78
91 Chad Campbell 67.7 49
92 Seamus Power 67.8 DNP
93 Michael Thompson 68.4 DNP
94 Robert Streb 68.4 78
95 Ryan Blaum 68.6 60
96 Michael Kim 68.7 92
97 Luke Donald 68.8 37
98 Whee Kim 69.1 135
99 Morgan Hoffmann 69.1 WD
100 Brice Garnett 69.3 122
101 Padraig Harrington 69.3 64
102 KJ Choi 69.5 112
103 Chris Stroud 69.5 135
104 Jim Herman 69.5 WD
105 Rob Oppenheim 69.6 122
106 Cameron Tringale 69.7 103
107 Geoff Ogilvy 69.9 92
108 JJ Henry 70.0 92
109 Xin-jun Zhang 70.1 112
110 Camilo Villegas 70.3 131
111 Kelly Kraft 70.4 63
112 Abraham Ancer 70.8 68
113 Smylie Kaufman 71.0 122
114 Corey Conners 71.0 DNP
115 Derek Fathauer 71.0 16
116 Sangmoon Bae 71.2 75
117 Talor Gooch 71.2 20
118 Billy Hurley 71.4 92
119 Dominic Bozzelli 71.6 26
120 Benjamin Silverman 71.8 53
121 Bronson Burgoon 72.4 DNP
122 Shawn Stefani 72.5 78
123 Tyler Duncan 72.5 138
124 Peter Malnati 72.6 78
125 Jonas Blixt 72.7 41
126 Nicholas Lindheim 72.7 WD
127 Jonathan Randolph 72.9 122
128 Stephan Jaeger 73.0 131
129 Cody Gribble 73.1 92
130 Vijay Singh 73.2 73
131 Tom Lovelady 73.2 DNP
132 Fabian Gomez 73.3 103
133 Joel Dahmen 73.7 78
134 Adam Schenk 74.1 53
135 DA Points 74.1 131
136 Matt Every 74.8 103
137 Jon Curran 74.9 112
138 Greg Chalmers 75.2 68
139 Ernie Els 75.4 78
140 Andrew Loupe 75.5 140
141 Martin Pillar 75.8 67
142 Roberto Diaz 76.0 DNP
143 Ethan Tracy 76.1 DNP
144 Cameron Champ 77.2 103
145 John Merrick 79.3 92
146 Seung-hyuk Kim 83.5 131
147 Charlie Beljan 85.0 140
148 Vinnie Poncino 85.3 140
Troy Merritt late entry 42
Parker McLachlin late entry 98
Richard Lee late entry 104
Ze-cheng Dou late entry 121
Scottie Scheffler late entry 128
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 86. The average is 211. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

NBO Oman Open

February 11, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,

Victor Dubuisson
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Victor Dubuisson 39.7 DNP
2 Alexander Levy 40.3 4
3 Soren Kjeldsen 44.0 104
4 Andy Sullivan 44.7 16
5 Jorge Campillo 47.8 4
6 Joost Luiten 48.3 1
7 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 49.2 114
8 Richard Sterne 49.7 37
9 Daisuke Kataoka 49.8 56
10 Andrew Johnston 50.6 12
11 Fabrizio Zanotti 50.7 7
12 Jeunghun Wang 51.2 26
13 Richie Ramsay 52.0 DNP
14 David Horsey 52.7 70
15 Alexander Bjork 53.9 12
16 Benjamin Hebert 54.1 9
17 Thomas Detry 55.4 31
18 Shubhankar Sharma 55.5 70
19 Pablo Larrazabal 55.8 44
20 Chris Wood 56.4 2
21 Eddie Pepperell 57.4 44
22 Chase Koepka 57.4 86
23 Scott Hend 57.8 56
24 Richard Bland 57.8 70
25 Ashun Wu 58.4 126
26 Callum Shinkwin 58.8 56
27 Thongchai Jaidee 59.6 51
28 Adrian Otaegui 59.8 12
29 Nino Bertasio 59.9 51
30 Bradley Dredge 60.1 114
31 Nacho Elvira 60.1 114
32 Matthew Southgate 60.3 9
33 Darren Fichardt 60.4 133
34 Matthieu Pavon 60.5 31
35 Alejandro Canizares 60.5 DNP
36 Anthony Wall 60.5 95
37 Maximilian Kieffer 60.7 23
38 Chris Hanson 61.0 104
39 Sean Crocker 61.2 104
40 Gregory Bourdy 61.5 31
41 Stephen Gallacher 61.9 9
42 Jason Scrivener 61.9 70
43 Matt Wallace 62.0 44
44 Mikko Ilonen 62.0 26
45 Joakim Lagergren 62.3 86
46 Lucas Herbert 62.5 95
47 Romain Wattel 62.6 70
48 Thomas Aiken 62.7 70
49 Graeme Storm 63.0 134
50 Jamie Donaldson 63.3 95
51 Mikko Korhonen 63.3 104
52 Marc Warren 63.5 63
53 David Drysdale 63.7 23
54 Renato Paratore 63.8 114
55 Matteo Manassero 63.9 31
56 Robert Rock 63.9 7
57 Adrien Saddier 63.9 104
58 Prayad Marksaeng 64.1 DNP
59 Haydn Porteous 64.3 26
60 Gavin Moynihan 64.3 70
61 Sam Brazel 64.3 16
62 Jordan Smith 64.4 26
63 Ricardo Gouveia 64.5 104
64 Lasse Jensen 65.0 70
65 James Morrison 65.5 70
66 Paul Waring 65.5 44
67 Phachara Khongwatmai 66.0 37
68 Lucas Bjerregaard 66.2 86
69 Ben Evans 66.2 114
70 Bernd Ritthammer 66.2 104
71 Oliver Fisher 66.4 44
72 Lee Slattery 66.7 31
73 Ashley Chesters 66.7 70
74 Gregory Havret 66.8 121
75 Charlie Ford 66.8 26
76 Raphael Jacquelin 67.2 44
77 Brandon Stone 67.3 121
78 SSP Chawrasia 67.4 53
79 Thomas Bjorn 67.5 31
80 Aaron Rai 67.7 37
81 Felipe Aguilar 67.8 70
82 Connor Syme 67.8 37
83 Ryan Evans 68.0 53
84 Jeff Winther 68.0 21
85 Marcus Kinhult 68.0 16
86 Gavin Green 68.1 68
87 Adam Bland 68.1 130
88 Marcel Siem 68.2 86
89 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 68.9 95
90 Steven Brown 69.0 86
91 Clement Sordet 69.0 37
92 Andrea Pavan 69.1 16
93 Daniel Im 69.2 53
94 Richard McEvoy 69.2 65
95 Christofer Blomstrand 69.2 128
96 Laurie Canter 69.8 95
97 Brett Rumford 69.8 114
98 Jin Choi 69.8 104
99 Sebastian Heisele 70.0 86
100 Nick Cullen 70.1 DNP
101 Carlos Pigem 70.2 70
102 Jacques Kruyswijk 70.4 70
103 Sam Horsfield 70.7 95
104 Daniel Brooks 70.7 DNP
105 Soo-min Lee 71.2 37
106 Jazz Janewattananond 71.3 86
107 Pep Angles 71.3 69
108 Zander Lombard 71.4 65
109 Paul Lawrie 71.4 61
110 Edoardo Molinari 71.6 16
111 Mark Foster 71.7 104
112 Matthew Baldwin 71.7 95
113 Julien Guerrier 71.7 3
114 Jens Dantorp 71.9 59
115 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 72.3 44
116 Jonathan Thomson 72.5 65
117 Pedro Oriol 72.8 95
118 Pontus Widegren 72.8 132
119 Oliver Farr 73.1 59
120 Seung-su Han 73.1 4
121 Sebastien Gros 73.4 70
122 Darren Clarke 74.0 61
123 Daan Huizing 74.1 21
124 Oscar Lengden 74.1 DNP
125 Nicolas Geyger 74.1 12
126 Marcel Schneider 74.2 121
127 Alvaro Quiros 74.4 126
128 Tapio Pulkkanen 74.5 23
129 Josh Geary 74.6 131
130 Scott Fernandez 74.9 37
131 Victor Perez 75.0 70
132 Matthias Schwab 75.1 70
133 Matthew Nixon 75.3 104
134 James Heath 75.4 114
135 Christopher Mivis 75.5 DNP
136 Bradley Neil 75.6 63
137 Lorenzo Gagli 75.9 121
138 Steven Troup 76.0 134
139 Peter Stojanovski 76.0 121
140 Nasser Yaqoob 76.0 137
141 Azaan Al Rumhy 76.0 136
142 Rak hyun Cho 76.0 86
143 Henric Sturehed 76.0 95
144 Tom Murray 76.1 DNP
Robert Karlsson late entry 88
Jens Fahrbring late entry 128
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 288. The average is 211. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Feb. 11, 2018)

February 11, 2018 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson has a streak of 48 weeks on top of the ratings as he heads into the core of his season.
# Thru Feb. 11, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Dustin Johnson 47 1765 1
2 Paul Casey 48 1719 2
3 Jordan Spieth 51 1584 3
4 Rickie Fowler 51 1514 4
5 Jason Day 44 1490 6
6 Jon Rahm 42 1434 5
7 Rory McIlroy 42 1367 7
8 Justin Thomas 54 1362 9
9 Brooks Koepka 46 1332 10
10 Patrick Cantlay 17 1326 8
11 Hideki Matsuyama 49 1295 11
12 Justin Rose 47 1292 12
13 Phil Mickelson 49 1266 14
14 Matt Kuchar 62 1213 13
15 Henrik Stenson 47 1162 15
16 Marc Leishman 54 1144 18
17 Pat Perez 36 1136 16
18 Louis Oosthuizen 45 1109 19
19 Francesco Molinari 50 1106 20
20 Adam Scott 43 1090 17
21 Tyrrell Hatton 48 1049 22
22 Sergio Garcia 45 1036 23
23 Patrick Reed 69 1035 21
24 Brendan Steele 49 1026 24
25 Brian Harman 59 1018 26
26 Tony Finau 58 1004 27
27 Gary Woodland 57 987 25
28 Webb Simpson 49 965 28
29 Chez Reavie 55 962 36
30 Rafa Cabrera Bello 60 960 29
31 Brandt Snedeker 45 944 32
32 Steve Stricker 29 929 31
33 Daniel Berger 54 920 33
34 Charles Howell 48 920 34
35 Kevin Kisner 57 906 30
36 Alex Noren 46 903 35
37 Kevin Chappell 56 899 39
38 Ryan Moore 47 877 38
39 Charley Hoffman 61 860 37
40 Branden Grace 56 854 41
41 Jason Dufner 50 844 42
42 Zach Johnson 52 843 40
43 Tommy Fleetwood 53 843 43
44 Charl Schwartzel 47 823 44
45 Bill Haas 52 801 45
46 Keegan Bradley 56 793 46
47 Kyle Stanley 55 791 47
48 Lucas Glover 48 774 48
49 Emiliano Grillo 55 768 49
50 Russell Henley 51 767 52
51 Xander Schauffele 37 760 50
52 Ryan Palmer 41 751 51
53 Brandon Harkins 15 740 70
54 Kevin Na 51 730 56
55 Adam Hadwin 55 724 55
56 Martin Kaymer 51 723 54
57 James Hahn 55 706 60
58 Thomas Pieters 48 703 58
59 Ian Poulter 48 703 57
60 Ollie Schniederjans 41 701 59
61 JB Holmes 51 695 53
62 Kevin Streelman 52 695 74
63 Ross Fisher 47 694 62
64 Graham DeLaet 43 692 61
65 Matthew Fitzpatrick 58 692 63
66 Scott Piercy 47 681 72
67 Bud Cauley 46 680 65
68 Martin Laird 49 677 67
69 Jhonattan Vegas 58 674 66
70 Jimmy Walker 51 669 80
71 Bernd Wiesberger 57 668 71
72 Jason Kokrak 56 667 68
73 Stewart Cink 47 664 64
74 Cameron Smith 54 660 73
75 Shane Lowry 52 656 69
76 Russell Knox 62 649 76
77 Luke List 60 627 75
78 Anirban Lahiri 54 625 77
79 Byeong Hun An 54 620 78
80 William McGirt 55 618 81
81 Bubba Watson 47 606 79
82 Jamie Lovemark 56 590 83
83 Chris Kirk 61 589 82
84 Jordan L Smith 13 578 85
85 Chesson Hadley 43 563 89
86 Sean O’Hair 53 563 84
87 Billy Horschel 51 557 86
88 David Lingmerth 57 557 91
89 Hudson Swafford 56 556 92
90 Lee Westwood 48 548 87
91 Jim Furyk 32 548 93
92 Soren Kjeldsen 55 547 94
93 Scott Brown 57 544 88
94 Brian Gay 46 533 108
95 Peter Uihlein 43 532 95
96 JJ Spaun 43 518 97
97 Patton Kizzire 55 512 98
98 Jerry Kelly 27 508 90
99 Haotong Li 45 508 100
100 Aaron Wise 19 505 125
101 Grayson Murray 40 501 118
102 Si Woo Kim 61 500 103
103 Robert Garrigus 48 498 96
104 Graeme McDowell 58 496 99
105 Sung Kang 62 492 104
106 Bryson DeChambeau 55 491 101
107 Andrew Landry 28 491 105
108 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 57 485 107
109 Nick Taylor 56 472 106
110 Austin Cook 16 462 102
111 Danny Lee 66 459 109
112 Victor Dubuisson 34 458 110
113 Wesley Bryan 40 453 111
114 Joost Luiten 52 452 112
115 Kevin Tway 40 452 113
116 Patrick Rodgers 58 449 138
117 Rafael Campos 10 443 117
118 Alexander Levy 47 443 114
119 Andy Sullivan 57 439 116
120 Nick Watney 30 433 115
121 Harris English 58 426 121
122 Ben Martin 57 426 127
123 Chad Campbell 57 422 122
124 Beau Hossler 21 421 120
125 Vaughn Taylor 56 419 119
126 Thorbjorn Olesen 54 418 124
127 Mackenzie Hughes 43 403 126
128 Scott Stallings 57 400 173
129 Sam Saunders 52 398 142
130 Ted Potter 20 395 265
131 Martin Flores 39 393 134
132 Jim Herman 52 392 128
133 Harold Varner 61 391 135
134 Robert Streb 58 386 129
135 Richard Sterne 42 385 139
136 Tom Hoge 52 385 131
137 Brian Stuard 56 384 133
138 Miguel Angel Jimenez 19 383 140
139 Hideto Tanihara 30 382 130
140 Daisuke Kataoka 10 379 123
141 Aaron Baddeley 50 379 136
142 Whee Kim 59 378 143
143 Alex Cejka 56 374 137
144 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 44 372 148
145 Dylan Frittelli 42 371 147
146 Julian Suri 20 370 132
147 Morgan Hoffmann 56 369 150
148 Fabrizio Zanotti 47 368 151
149 Brandon Hagy 33 367 149
150 Michael Kim 55 366 154
151 David Hearn 61 365 141
152 Tyrone van Aswegen 63 365 163
153 Andrew Johnston 47 362 144
154 CT Pan 43 362 155
155 Seung-yul Noh 51 361 157
156 Daniel Summerhays 59 360 145
157 Paul Dunne 51 359 146
158 Roberto Castro 47 359 153
159 Michael Thompson 43 358 159
160 Nicolas Colsaerts 56 352 160
161 Geoff Ogilvy 47 351 161
162 Luke Donald 50 350 152
163 David Horsey 46 350 162
164 John Huh 56 348 165
165 Alexander Bjork 35 347 164
166 Padraig Harrington 47 345 156
167 Jorge Campillo 53 340 168
168 Chris Wood 54 337 172
169 Richie Ramsay 50 337 171
170 Johnson Wagner 55 332 167
171 Ryan Blaum 41 332 166
172 Eddie Pepperell 44 332 175
173 Kelly Kraft 53 329 170
174 Billy Hurley 51 327 169
175 Retief Goosen 42 327 174
176 Seamus Power 41 319 176
177 Henrik Norlander 26 317 185
178 Pablo Larrazabal 51 316 184
179 George Coetzee 55 316 182
180 Rory Sabbatini 49 315 177
181 Chris Stroud 54 314 187
182 Blayne Barber 50 313 181
183 JT Poston 42 313 178
184 David Lipsky 57 313 179
185 Chase Koepka 10 311 158
186 Ryan Armour 36 311 205
187 Jeunghun Wang 56 310 186
188 John Senden 37 310 180
189 Ryan Fox 43 309 183
190 Smylie Kaufman 56 303 188
191 Xin-jun Zhang 13 302 190
192 Shubhankar Sharma 16 299 191
193 Richard Bland 49 293 192
194 Jaco van Zyl 34 286 194
195 Camilo Villegas 57 284 195
196 Chris Paisley 55 282 197
197 Ricky Barnes 65 278 193
198 Benjamin Hebert 49 278 198
199 Benjamin Silverman 14 278 189
200 Thongchai Jaidee 52 275 200
201 Dean Burmester 41 275 202
202 Andres Gonzales 51 272 204
203 Matthew Southgate 57 271 203
204 Brice Garnett 27 271 225
205 Rob Oppenheim 36 270 206
206 Tim Wilkinson 46 267 208
207 Nacho Elvira 54 267 210
208 Scott Hend 61 267 209
209 Derek Fathauer 57 266 201
210 Abraham Ancer 27 259 216
211 Trey Mullinax 42 259 214
212 Dominic Bozzelli 32 258 207
213 Talor Gooch 14 258 196
214 Troy Merritt 62 257 284
215 Cameron Tringale 61 255 219
216 Kyung-tae Kim 21 255 221
217 Cameron Percy 45 255 211
218 Matthieu Pavon 35 255 220
219 Anthony Wall 38 254 223
220 Tyler Duncan 14 253 199
221 Peter Hanson 36 252 226
222 Berry Henson 8 252
223 Scott Jamieson 52 252 231
224 David Toms 18 250 215
225 Martin Piller 27 250 229
226 Bradley Dredge 43 250 230
227 Rikard Karlberg 38 250 227
228 Ryo Ishikawa 28 250 234
229 Richy Werenski 40 249 213
230 Kyle Reifers 61 249 224
231 JJ Henry 54 249 217
232 Gregory Bourdy 57 248 228
233 Shawn Stefani 58 247 218
234 Ashun Wu 45 246 237
235 Curtis Luck 24 246 236
236 Jonas Blixt 51 244 222
237 Julian Etulain 29 244 239
238 Ben Crane 54 240 232
239 Stephen Gallacher 44 240 241
240 Lanto Griffin 13 240 212
241 Alejandro Canizares 47 239 233
242 Callum Shinkwin 42 237 242
243 Joakim Lagergren 49 237 244
244 Darren Fichardt 39 236 243
245 Matt Jones 57 234 240
246 Keith Mitchell 17 232 246
247 Mikko Ilonen 46 231 247
248 Thomas Detry 36 230 248
249 Vijay Singh 41 230 235
250 Chris Hanson 48 225 250
251 Nino Bertasio 55 224 251
252 Fabian Gomez 51 224 245
253 Adrian Otaegui 54 224 253
254 Corey Conners 15 224 238
255 Graeme Storm 52 223 255
256 Marc Warren 54 222 254
257 Tag Ridings 27 218 258
258 Florian Fritsch 31 217 262
259 Yuta Ikeda 18 216 263
260 Will MacKenzie 38 216 261
261 Maximilian Kieffer 47 213 270
262 Thomas Aiken 49 213 268
263 Matt Wallace 30 213 269
264 Jamie Donaldson 49 213 264
265 Poom Saksansin 16 211 274
266 Robert Rock 49 211 271
267 David Drysdale 55 211 272
268 Bryce Molder 44 210 259
269 Danny Willett 47 210 252
270 Chad Collins 49 210 273
271 Zac Blair 67 209 267
272 Jonathan Randolph 37 209 260
273 Robby Shelton 12 209 277
274 Jonathan Byrd 26 209 256
275 Spencer Levin 58 206 275
276 Cody Gribble 39 206 266
277 Boo Weekley 45 206 276
278 Bronson Burgoon 31 204 278
279 Colt Knost 30 204 249
280 Scott Langley 25 204 279
281 Andrew Putnam 15 202 257
282 Jordan Smith 21 202 282
283 Mikko Korhonen 45 198 286
284 KJ Choi 48 197 310
285 Andrew Dodt 47 197 281
286 Stephan Jaeger 19 197 294
287 Romain Wattel 52 196 285
288 Renato Paratore 58 196 289
289 John Peterson 23 196 287
290 Sangmoon Bae 9 195 681
291 Austin Connelly 26 194 280
292 Nicholas Lindheim 37 193 283
293 Davis Love 27 191 291
294 Young-han Song 14 190 292
295 Haydn Porteous 58 190 293
296 Matteo Manassero 51 188 295
297 Khalin Joshi 8 188 298
298 DA Points 45 188 290
299 Freddie Jacobson 27 187 288
300 Paul Waring 34 186 297
301 Ricardo Gouveia 54 186 300
302 Jason Scrivener 52 184 299
303 James Morrison 54 182 304
304 Sebastian Munoz 24 182 301
305 Wade Ormsby 40 181 302
306 Rod Pampling 48 181 306
307 Michael Putnam 12 180 307
308 Joel Dahmen 29 179 305
309 Steve Wheatcroft 51 179 296
310 Sean Crocker 9 174 357
311 Julien Quesne 47 173 308
312 Greg Owen 42 171 311
313 Adam Schenk 16 169 303
314 Lucas Bjerregaard 57 168 313
315 Oliver Fisher 54 168 315
316 Robert Karlsson 43 167 314
317 Lucas Herbert 12 166 373
318 Marcus Fraser 46 164 320
319 Alex Prugh 16 162 322
320 Peter Malnati 62 162 340
321 Tom Lovelady 14 162 309
322 David Bransdon 9 162 316
323 Trevor Fisher 23 161 324
324 Lee Slattery 51 160 325
325 Ashley Chesters 29 158 326
326 Jon Curran 42 157 323
327 Wes Roach 20 157 327
328 Michael Johnson 10 156 331
329 Charlie Danielson 8 155 332
330 Rick Lamb 32 155 319
331 Angel Cabrera 37 155 321
332 Gregory Havret 56 155 334
333 Satoshi Kodaira 11 155 348
334 Paul Peterson 52 154 328
335 Richard Lee 10 154 336
336 Yusaku Miyazato 14 154 365
337 Anders Hansen 15 154 335
338 Prayad Marksaeng 11 152 337
339 Andres Romero 36 151 339
340 Brett Stegmaier 59 151 329
341 Brandon Stone 45 150 341
342 Lasse Jensen 50 149 345
343 Joachim B Hansen 23 147 346
344 Bernd Ritthammer 28 147 330
345 Steve Marino 32 146 343
346 Ryan Brehm 32 145 347
347 Charlie Ford 10 144 312
348 Connor Syme 10 144 317
349 Carlos Ortiz 30 144 350
350 Hunter Mahan 55 144 344
351 Jose-Filipe Lima 30 143 349
352 Raphael Jacquelin 50 143 353
353 Hennie Otto 19 143 356
354 Sam Brazel 41 143 355
355 Erik Van Rooyen 11 143 354
356 Aaron Rai 19 142 352
357 Maverick McNealy 10 142 318
358 Romain Langasque 34 141 358
359 Ryan Ruffels 13 140 351
360 Rhein Gibson 25 139 361
361 Adrien Saddier 14 138 333
362 Juvic Pagunsan 11 137 366
363 Nate Lashley 13 137 342
364 Marcel Siem 49 136 364
365 Phachara Khongwatmai 35 134 371
366 Johan Carlsson 47 133 369
367 Justin Hicks 14 133 370
368 Will Wilcox 33 133 372
369 Jake McLeod 8 131
370 Felipe Aguilar 47 131 363
371 Brett Drewitt 27 129 377
372 Ben Evans 38 129 368
373 Tom Gillis 9 128 380
374 Brian Campbell 27 127 378
375 Stuart Appleby 45 126 367
376 Jordan Zunic 15 125 362
377 Joel Stalter 28 125 379
378 Gavin Green 12 123 381
379 Lee McCoy 11 123 374
380 Ben Eccles 12 122 415
381 Shiv Kapur 29 121 376
382 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 31 120 383
383 Brett Coletta 10 120 360
384 Luke Guthrie 19 119 382
385 Adam Bland 10 119 359
386 SSP Chawrasia 48 119 388
387 Thomas Bjorn 33 118 386
388 Magnus A Carlsson 43 118 387
389 Justin Walters 50 117 389
390 YE Yang 30 117 390
391 Mark Hubbard 51 117 384
392 Bill Lunde 11 117 395
393 Daniel Im 50 115 393
394 Greg Chalmers 50 115 385
395 Andrew Loupe 48 114 391
396 Sebastian Soderberg 17 112 398
397 Stephen Leaney 9 112 447
398 Miguel Angel Carballo 35 111 397
399 Josh Teater 10 110 399
400 Steven Alker 31 110 400
More | Less

A look at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

February 6, 2018 Thomas Hawley

In addition to being the annual visit to one of the world’s truly iconic golf courses, Pebble Beach Golf Links, this week is notable in presenting the somewhat rare occurrence of the world’s no. 1 and no. 2 players (per the Hawley Ratings) squaring off against each other. That is Dustin Johnson, with two January appearances, including the win at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and Paul Casey, making only his second appearance of the year. In this case, the nod goes oh-so-slightly toward Casey, on the assumption that he is able to continue the remarkable and remarkably consistent level of play that he has shown over the last 10 months. In 18 appearances going back to the 2017 Dell Technologies Match Play event, Casey has 10 finishes in the top 10, five in the top 20, and three between 21st and 33rd; no missed cuts.
Johnson, of course, is no slouch either. In Read more

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

February 5, 2018 Thomas Hawley ,
Paul Casey
Paul Casey
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Paul Casey -0.5 8
2 Dustin Johnson 2.6 2
3 Jordan Spieth 16.0 20
4 Jason Day 16.7 2
5 Jon Rahm 21.9 26
6 Rory McIlroy 28.7 85
7 Adam Scott 29.1 111
8 Phil Mickelson 32.0 2
9 Patrick Cantlay 33.1 35
10 Pat Perez 36.5 35
11 Gary Woodland 36.8 85
12 Patrick Reed 37.2 76
13 Matt Kuchar 37.2 62
14 Brandt Snedeker 39.2 20
15 Chez Reavie 39.8 2
16 Steve Stricker 40.5 26
17 Rafa Cabrera Bello 45.2 26
18 Charley Hoffman 46.4 WD
19 Kevin Chappell 46.7 8
20 James Hahn 49.0 26
21 Branden Grace 50.1 20
22 Kevin Streelman 50.8 6
23 Jerry Kelly 51.0 119
24 Jason Kokrak 52.5 35
25 Kevin Kisner 52.6 103
26 Chesson Hadley 52.9 35
27 Stewart Cink 53.7 119
28 JB Holmes 54.1 76
29 Shane Lowry 54.1 43
30 Chris Kirk 54.3 76
31 Brandon Harkins 55.3 15
32 Brian Gay 56.3 8
33 Vaughn Taylor 56.5 55
34 Russell Henley 57.7 15
35 Scott Piercy 57.8 20
36 Austin Cook 58.0 136
37 Russell Knox 58.3 15
38 William McGirt 58.4 26
39 Bryson DeChambeau 58.5 55
40 Tom Hoge 58.7 93
41 Jimmy Walker 59.0 8
42 Bubba Watson 61.4 35
43 Sean O’Hair 61.9 73
44 Robert Garrigus 62.0 85
45 Ben Martin 62.2 26
46 Nick Taylor 62.7 103
47 Beau Hossler 63.2 43
48 Paul Dunne 63.3 129
49 Rory Sabbatini 63.3 72
50 Nick Watney 63.3 47
51 Scott Brown 63.6 93
52 Sam Saunders 63.6 26
53 Billy Horschel 63.6 93
54 Aaron Wise 64.2 15
55 Brian Stuard 64.3 129
56 Grayson Murray 65.5 8
57 Julian Suri 65.5 68
58 Alex Cejka 65.7 75
59 Graeme McDowell 65.8 146
60 Padraig Harrington 65.9 139
61 Cameron Davis 66.4 111
62 Aaron Baddeley 66.7 55
63 Seamus Power 67.1 139
64 Tyrone van Aswegen 67.6 26
65 Jim Herman 67.8 123
66 Robert Streb 67.9 85
67 David Hearn 67.9 136
68 Mackenzie Hughes 68.1 123
69 Ryan Blaum 68.2 73
70 Kelly Kraft 68.3 147
71 Luke Donald 68.3 103
72 Matt Jones 68.4 129
73 Scott Stallings 68.6 7
74 Johnson Wagner 68.8 55
75 Patrick Rodgers 69.0 8
76 Ryan Armour 69.0 20
77 Whee Kim 69.1 DNP
78 Ricky Barnes 69.1 62
79 Daniel Summerhays 69.4 55
80 Chris Stroud 69.4 35
81 Brice Garnett 69.6 35
82 JT Poston 69.6 68
83 JJ Henry 69.8 93
84 Richy Werenski 69.8 93
85 Corey Conners 69.8 119
86 Trey Mullinax 69.9 47
87 Rob Oppenheim 70.0 47
88 Derek Fathauer 70.2 62
89 Nicholas Lindheim 70.3 85
90 Cameron Percy 70.5 76
91 Talor Gooch 70.7 93
92 Abraham Ancer 70.8 DNP
93 Billy Hurley 70.9 123
94 Xin-jun Zhang 71.0 43
95 Ben Crane 71.0 103
96 Dominic Bozzelli 71.4 111
97 Andrew Putnam 71.4 103
98 Lanto Griffin 71.4 103
99 Shawn Stefani 71.4 129
100 Jonathan Byrd 71.6 62
101 Jonas Blixt 71.6 76
102 Ted Potter 71.6 1
103 Keith Mitchell 71.7 47
104 Cameron Tringale 71.9 47
105 Hunter Mahan 72.0 93
106 Tyler Duncan 72.1 136
107 Colt Knost 72.4 123
108 Benjamin Silverman 72.5 123
109 Jonathan Randolph 72.6 66
110 Martin Pillar 72.8 111
111 Tom Lovelady 72.8 76
112 Fabian Gomez 72.8 85
113 Stephan Jaeger 72.9 43
114 Cody Gribble 72.9 148
115 Bronson Burgoon 73.0 47
116 Zac Blair 73.1 93
117 Vijay Singh 73.2 129
118 Nate Lashley 73.3 76
119 Troy Merritt 73.3 8
120 Rick Lamb 73.4 123
121 Peter Malnati 73.4 35
122 DA Points 73.4 93
123 Joel Dahmen 73.6 55
124 KJ Choi 73.6 26
125 Adam Schenk 73.7 111
126 Steve Wheatcroft 73.9 111
127 Rod Pampling 74.0 47
128 Maverick McNealy 74.0 85
129 Andres Romero 74.0 DNP
130 Brett Stegmaier 74.5 119
131 Dicky Pride 74.7 DNP
132 Stuart Appleby 74.9 111
133 Tim Herron 75.0 129
134 Greg Chalmers 75.0 103
135 Matt Every 75.1 111
136 Ken Duke 75.2 129
137 Jason Gore 75.7 DNP
138 Roberto Diaz 75.7 144
139 Ernie Els 75.8 103
140 Derek Ernst 75.8 139
141 Ethan Tracy 76.0 148
142 Brendon de Jonge 76.2 93
143 Denny McCarthy 76.3 66
144 Sangmoon Bae 76.4 15
145 Eric Axley 76.4 47
146 Conrad Shindler 76.4 139
147 Sam Ryder 76.6 68
148 Jason Bohn 76.7 150
149 Carl Pettersson 76.7 DNP
150 George McNeill 76.7 85
151 Matt Atkins 76.8 76
152 Angel Cabrera 76.9 WD
153 John Rollins 77.2 DNP
154 Kyle Thompson 77.7 144
155 Andrew Yun 77.7 150
156 Omar Uresti 77.8 DNP
157 Ze-cheng Dou 77.9 55
158 John Merrick 79.2 DNP
159 Bill Lunde 79.7 DNP
160 Mike Weir 83.6 76
161 Shane Bertsch 85.0 DNP
162 Charlie Beljan 85.3 139
163 Peter Jacobsen 85.3 152
164 David Solomon 85.3 153
165 Will Zalatoris 85.3 68
166 David Duval 85.6 154
Kevin Na late entry 25
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 356. The average is 211. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.